MANAGING INTEREST RATE RISK: SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW MIKE DELISLE, ALM ADVISORS GROUP

Similar documents
Balance Sheet Strategies for 2018: A Roadmap to Outperform Your Peers Jim Reber, President August 13, 2018

ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT - YEAR 2

Asset/Liability Management

Georgia Banking School

Measuring Your IRR Profile Against Peers & Regulatory Targets. February 26, 2015 Webinar

Core Deposit Analytics Session 2: Beyond Basics - Applying Results

Balance Sheet Strategies in Today's Economic Environment May 2018

Advanced Asset/Liability Management

Interest Rate Risk Basics Measuring & Managing Earnings & Value at Risk

Interest Rate Risk Basics Measuring & Managing Earnings & Value at Risk

Introduction to Asset/Liability Management

Loan Pricing Deals/Relationships Session 2. Agenda

Deposit Pricing in Rising Rates Session 1. Three Part Series

Lecture Materials ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT YEAR 2

Key ALM Assumptions for Rising Rates. Current Landscape Interest Rates CU Balance Sheet & Financial Performance Trends

PNC Bank, NA. Board Report. June 30, Pittsburgh, PA. A/L BENCHMARKS Standards for Asset/Liability Management

FHLB Des Moines Regional Member Meetings Profiting from a Rising Rate Environment

Developing Deposit Strategies for Rising Rates Session 1. Agenda

Lecture Materials FUNDING. Thomas A. Farin Chairman of the Board FARIN Financial Risk Management Fitchburg, Wisconsin

Balance Sheet Strategies For Changing Rate Environments

Now What? Navigating Fearlessly Through a Turbulent Environment February 2, 2016

Farin & Associates, Inc. Farin Foresight Software Certification as of November 30, 2017

Core Deposit Analytics Session 1

Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines. A Case for Diversifying the Right-Hand Side of the Balance Sheet

Deposit Pricing in Rising Rates Session 1. Three Part Series

Balance Sheet Strategies For Changing Rate Environments Asset/Liability Management Seminar

BEST PRACTICES IN ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT. AMIfs Institute July 18, 2016 Monday Afternoon Session

Credit Product Primer Advancing your knowledge of bank products and services

Developing a Funding Strategy for Rising Rates. Agenda

MAKING LIQUIDITY YOUR NEW BEST FRIEND

Interest Rate Outlook and FHLB Member Activities

Lecture Materials FUNDING

Elevate Your Credit Union s Performance Now is NOT the Time for Business as Usual!

FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS & RATIO ANALYSIS

Balance Sheet Strategies February 2018

The Regulatory Focus on Interest Rate Risk: What to Expect and How to Comply

ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT - YEAR 2

Benchmarking and Strategies

Your State Association Presents. Interest Rate Risk: What Does th Future Hold? Program Materials

Bank of America Fourth Quarter 2006 Results

What is a Dynamic ALCO

Developing Deposit Strategies for Rising Rates Session 2. Agenda

Investment Strategies for 1 st Quarter 2015

Deposit Pricing in Rising Rates Session 2

Weathering the Storm: Rates, Recession, and Risk

Interest Rate Risk Measurement

Loan Pricing Deals & Relationships Session 1. Agenda

ALCO: The Fundamentals

The challenge of preserving net interest margins with a flattening yield curve

ALCO: The Fundamentals

I I Bank Funding Survey Results and Analysis

Positioning Your Portfolio as the Fed Tightens Monetary Policy

RISING Rates Are Here Again Time to Celebrate or Danger Ahead?

Structuring Term Loans How to Manage Interest Rate and Credit Risk

Developing a Funding Strategy For Rising Rates. Agenda

Liquidity and Contingency Funding Strategies for Today s Market

Doing More with Your Balance Sheet

Fifth Third Bancorp 1Q18 Earnings Presentation

UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING OPTION RISK

2015 Member Conference

INTERMEDIATE DERIVATIVE ANALYTICS CUNA CFO Conference May 19, Presented by: Emily Moré Hollis, CFA Founding Partner

SBA Securities A Strategic Addition to your Portfolio

B6302 Sample Placement Exam Academic Year

Course Materials UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING OPTION RISK

Leading Practices. Non-Maturity Deposit Modeling: June 26, :45 AM 12:45 PM. Presented by:

Fifth Third Bancorp 3Q18 Earnings Presentation

Asset Liability Management. Craig Roodt Australian Prudential Regulation Authority

How to Improve Liquidity

Dec-14. Dec-11. Dec-15. Dec-16. Dec-13. Dec-12. Dec-17. Jun-13. Jun-18. Jun-14. Jun-16. Jun-17. Jun-12. Jun-15. Sep-14. Sep-17. Sep-13. Sep-15.

Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Presentation. October 31, 2018

SWAPS. Types and Valuation SWAPS

Credit Union Survival in a Challenging

Jerry Boebel, CFA Business Consultant ProfitStars Omaha Office

FHLB Symposium. Scott Buchta Head: Fixed Income Strategy. Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 Indianapolis Tuesday August 28 th, 2018 Grand Rapids

Lecture Materials LOAN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT YEAR 1

Back Testing ALM Models April 17, Back Testing ALM Models: Concepts, Practice, and Compliant Business Solutions

ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT - YEAR 2

Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference

Core Deposit Analytics Session 1: Determining Core The Basics

Lecture Materials ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT YEAR 1

Lecture Materials ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT YEAR 1

Alan Brazil. Goldman, Sachs & Co.

March 26, Why Hedge? How to Hedge? Trends and Strategies in Interest Rate and FX Risk Management

The Massachusetts ALM Program

Bank of America Second Quarter 2009 Results

THE CURRENT CHALLENGES OF MANAGING A CREDIT UNION INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call July 19, 2018

Derivative Strategies in Light of the New Hedge Accounting Rules

Loan Pricing Structure and the Nature of Interest Rates

ALM Strategy in the Current Rate Environment. Current Landscape Interest Rates CU Balance Sheet & Financial Performance Trends

Non Maturing Deposits

Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book. Taking a close look at the latest IRRBB developments

Managing Interest Rate Risk with Swaps

KeyCorp. Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Review. Don Kimble Chief Financial Officer. Beth E. Mooney Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

INTRODUCTION TO YIELD CURVES. Amanda Goldman

BASICS OF LIQUIDITY WHAT IS IT? WHAT RISKS DOES IT CONTRIBUTE TO YOUR CAPITAL PLAN & FUNDING NEEDS? David Koch. President\CEO FARIN & Associates, Inc.

Accounting for Interest Rate Derivatives FAS ASC 815

MATH FOR CREDIT. Purdue University, Feb 6 th, SHIKHAR RANJAN Credit Products Group, Morgan Stanley

What s Working CREATING LIQUIDITY THROUGH MUNICIPAL SWAP OPPORTUNITY

Capital Speedboat Session 2. Charting your way through troubling waters FARIN & Associates Inc. Agenda

Transcription:

MANAGING INTEREST RATE RISK: SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW MIKE DELISLE, ALM ADVISORS GROUP WVBA Convention July 29, 2014

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 2

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 3

What we know Rates as they are 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 7/18/14 4

What we know How we got here 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Core PCE Fed Funds Target 3 Month Bill 2 Year Note 10 Year Note '60'62'64'66'68'70'72'74'76'78'80'82'84'86'88'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'14 5

What we know Historical transitions 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 3/1/1988 Treasury Curve 3/1/1989 6

What we know Historical transitions 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 1/1/94 Treasury Curve 1/1/95 7

What we know Historical transitions 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 4/1/04 Treasury Curve 4/1/05 8

What we know Historical transitions 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 7/18/14 Treasury Curve 3/1/88 Treasury Curve 1/1/94 Treasury Curve 4/1/04 9

What we know Historical transitions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 7/18/14 Treasury Curve 3/1/88 Treasury Curve 1/1/94 Treasury Curve 4/1/04 10

What we know Historical transitions 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 7/18/14 Treasury Curve 3/1/89 Treasury Curve 1/1/95 Treasury Curve 4/1/05 11

What we know Historical transitions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Treasury Curve 7/18/14 Treasury Curve 3/1/89 Treasury Curve 1/1/95 Treasury Curve 4/1/05 12

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 13

NII at Risk Earnings at Risk (EAR) Net Interest Income (NII) Short term view of risk Asset Sensitive: Increased income in rising rate scenarios Liabilities Sensitive: Decreased income in rising rate scenarios 14

NII at Risk Profile Asset Sensitive 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% -200 bps -100 bps Base +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps +400 bps 1st Quarter 7,035 7,167 7,312 7,494 7,662 7,820 7,965 2nd Quarter 6,692 7,240 7,667 7,946 8,201 8,439 8,669 3rd Quarter 6,584 7,326 7,954 8,345 8,701 9,038 9,368 4th Quarter 6,612 7,486 8,217 8,615 8,972 9,308 9,639 26,924 29,219 31,149 32,400 33,537 34,605 35,642 % Difference -13.6% -6.2% 4.0% 7.7% 11.1% 14.4% 15

NII at Risk Profile Liability Sensitive 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% -200 bps -100 bps Base +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps +400 bps 1st Quarter 3,421 3,391 3,302 3,270 3,245 3,227 3,196 2nd Quarter 3,528 3,500 3,375 3,337 3,309 3,293 3,278 3rd Quarter 3,575 3,560 3,414 3,396 3,356 3,349 3,346 4th Quarter 3,606 3,600 3,434 3,464 3,429 3,442 3,459 14,129 14,050 13,526 13,468 13,339 13,311 13,279 % Difference 4.5% 3.9% -0.4% -1.4% -1.6% -1.8% 16

Peer Data March 14 NII Rates Up 200 bps 40% 35% 35% 30% Percent of Clients 25% 20% 15% 24% 19% 10% 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% More Percent Change NII 17

Peer Data March 14 NII Rates Up 200 bps 40% Percent of Clients 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Liability Sensitive 14% 24% 35% 19% Asset Sensitive 62% 10% 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% More Percent Change NII 18

EVE at Risk Economic Value of Equity (EVE) EVE = PV Assets PV Liabilities Long term view of risk 19

EVE at Risk Profile Asset Sensitive EVE Difference % Difference UP 300 58,520 1,724 3.0% UP 200 58,038 1,242 2.2% UP 100 57,604 809 1.4% Base Case 56,796 DN 100 50,812 (5,984) 10.5% Book Value: 46,529 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 20

EVE at Risk Profile Liability Sensitive EVE Difference % Difference UP 300 77,816 (9,912) 11.3% UP 200 81,773 (5,955) 6.8% UP 100 86,145 (1,583) 1.8% Base Case 87,728 DN 100 89,913 2,185 2.5% Book Value: 89,452 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 21

Peer Data March 14 EVE Rates Up 200 bps 25% 20% 20% 21% 19% Percent of Clients 15% 10% 5% 0% 13% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% More Percent Change EVE 22

Peer Data March 14 EVE Rates Up 200 bps 25% Percent of Clients 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 3% Liability Sensitive 57% 2% 4% 7% 20% 21% 19% 13% 6% 4% 0% 0% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% More Percent Change EVE Asset Sensitive 24% 1% 0% 23

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 24

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 25

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 26

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 27

CD Migration New Volume vs Matured Balances 6.00 7,000 5.00 6,000 Rate 4.00 3.00 2.00 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Balance 1.00 1,000-1-3 Month 4-6 Month 7-9 Month 10-12 Month 13-18 Month 19-24 Month 2-3 Year 3-4 Year 4 Year + Total New Volume - 4,326-3,429 2,189 389 328 363 1,019 12,044 Matured - 5,052-3,430 2,048 1,024 790 1,010 2,820 16,174 New Volume Rates 0.33 0.05 0.35 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.17 Matured Rate 0.33 0.06 0.35 0.15 0.34 0.87 1.88 2.91 5.00 1.29 Migration - (726) - (1) 141 (635) (462) (646) (1,801) (4,130) Spread - 0.01 - - 0.14 0.67 1.58 2.51 4.50 1.13-28

CD Migration New Volume vs Matured Balances 6.00 7,000 5.00 6,000 Rate 4.00 3.00 2.00 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Balance 1.00 1,000-1-3 Month 4-6 Month 7-9 Month 10-12 Month 13-18 Month 19-24 Month 2-3 Year 3-4 Year 4 Year + Total New Volume - 4,326-3,429 2,189 389 328 363 1,019 12,044 Matured - 5,052-3,430 2,048 1,024 790 1,010 2,820 16,174 New Volume Rates 0.33 0.05 0.35 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.17 Matured Rate 0.33 0.06 0.35 0.15 0.34 0.87 1.88 2.91 5.00 1.29 Migration - (726) - (1) 141 (635) (462) (646) (1,801) (4,130) Spread - 0.01 - - 0.14 0.67 1.58 2.51 4.50 1.13-29

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 30

Securities 31

Securities 32

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 33

Brokered CD s Brokered CD's 7/21/2014 For settlement 7/30/2014 Indicative Levels for Best-Efforts Posting CD Rates Benchmark Term All-In Low All-In High FHLB-Bost Spread 3-mos 0.25 0.30 0.35 (5) 6-mos 0.30 0.35 0.36 (1) 9-mos 0.35 0.40 0.37 3 1 yr 0.40 0.50 0.39 11 15-mos 0.45 0.55 0.51 4 18-mos 0.50 0.60 0.64 (4) 2 yr 0.65 0.75 0.90 (15) 2.5 yr 0.90 1.00 1.13 (13) 3 yr 1.10 1.20 1.37 (17) 3.5 yr 1.30 1.40 1.59 (19) 4 yr 1.50 1.60 1.81 (21) 5 yr 1.85 1.95 2.12 (17) 7 yr 2.40 2.50 2.68 (18) 10 yr 3.05 3.15 3.27 (12) Note: Calendar convention for CD rates are Actual/365, UST are Actual/Actual, Swaps are 30/360 & FHLB-Bost are Actual/360. 34

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 35

Blend and Extend Strategy Old advance is closed out and new advance is initiated at par value. There is no cash settlement of the prepayment fee. The prepayment fee is then blended into the rate of a new advance. The term of the new advance is selected to take advantage of the current low rate environment and minimize the annual impact of the penalty. 36

Blend and Extend Results Lower advance costs and improved net interest margin. Allows liability sensitive institution to extend duration of advances without increasing total advances outstanding. No accounting concerns if structured correctly. Lock in today s low rates. 37

Blend and Extend Example Current Structure After Restructure Par Value $15,000,000 $15,000,000 Interest Rate 4.06% 2.64% Prepayment Fees Included in the new $664,833 interest rate Years to Maturity 1.2 Years 3.0 Years Annual Savings $213,000 38

Blend and Extend Example 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Current Rate Prepayment Fee = 1.50% over the life of the new 5 year advance FHLB Rate Spread New Rate 39

Blend and Extend Example 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% New 3 Year Rate Penalty Spread Old Advance Rate 40

Positioning the Balance Sheet Retail Tactics Loans Deposits Wholesale Tactics Securities Brokered Deposits Advances Off Balance Sheet Derivatives 41

Derivatives Borrower Fixed Rate Loan Receive Fixed % Institution Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Interest Rate Swap Customer Desires Fixed Rate Loan

Derivatives Borrower Fixed Rate Loan Receive Fixed % Institution Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Pay Fixed Interest Rate Swap Receive LIBOR Floating Swap Loan Receipt to Floating

Derivatives Results of Swap Borrower Fixed Rate Loan Receive Fixed 4.50% Institution Fixed Rate Loan with Interest Rate Swap Pay Fixed 4.50% Interest Rate Swap Receive 1M LIBOR + 2.84% Floating Pay Fixed Loan Rate: 4.50% Amount: $5,000,000 Amortization: 20 years Maturity: 5 years Hedged Transaction Loan: Receive Fixed 4.50% Swap: Pay Fixed (4.50%) Receive 1M Libor+2.84% 2.99% Net Floating Cash Flow 2.99%

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 45

Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions 46

Alternate Rate Scenarios Historical Transitions Bear / Bull Worst Case 47

Alternate Rate Scenarios Bear Flattener When short term interest rates rise faster than long term interest rates Bear Steepener When long term interest rates rise faster than short term interest rates Bull Flattener When the shape of the yield curve flattens as a result of long term interest rates falling faster than short term interest rates Bull Steepener When short term interest rates fall faster than long term interest rates 48

Alternate Rate Scenarios 2,300 Net Interest Income - Alternate Scenarios 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 Base Case Bear Steepener Bear Flattener Long End Up 200 Up 100 Up 200 49

Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions 50

Asset Growth Growth Assumptions Total Asset Growth Cash/Fed Funds Securities Loans Funded By Non Interest Bearing DDA Interest Bearing DDA CDs/IRAs FHLB/Other Equity Total $162.8MM $36.0MM $4.0MM $122.8MM Total $38.2MM $53.4MM $67.9MM ($5.9MM) $9.2MM 51

Asset Growth Growth Assumptions Total Asset Growth Cash/Fed Funds Securities Loans Funded By Non Interest Bearing DDA Interest Bearing DDA CDs/IRAs FHLB/Other Equity Total $162.8MM $36.0MM $4.0MM $122.8MM Total $38.2MM $53.4MM $67.9MM ($5.9MM) $9.2MM NII Impact of $2.9MM 52

Asset Growth NII 25.0% Percent Change from Base Case 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 300 bps 200 bps 100 bps +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps Flat 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 9.5% 18.0% Growth 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 3.7% 11.7% 21.0% 53

Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions 54

Deposit Migration Current Position Total Non Interest DDA Interest Bearing DDA/MMDA/Savings Customer Repo Total $245.9MM $575.7MM $47.3MM Deposit Changes Migration Cost Migrate 20% of Non Interest DDA to Premier Savings Replace Non Interest DDA with FHLB Advance Replace Customer Repo with FHLB Advance $49.2MM $15.0MM $15.0MM 16bps 261bps 242bps 55

Deposit Migration Current Position Total Non Interest DDA Interest Bearing DDA/MMDA/Savings Customer Repo Total $245.9MM $575.7MM $47.3MM Impact to NII ($0.834MM) And EVE ($7.2MM) Deposit Changes Migration Cost Migrate 20% of Non Interest DDA to Premier Savings Replace Non Interest DDA with FHLB Advance Replace Customer Repo with FHLB Advance $49.2MM $15.0MM $15.0MM 16bps 261bps 242bps 56

Deposit Migration NII 0.0% Percent Change from Base Case 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 300 bps 200 bps 100 bps +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps Regular 6.7% 4.7% 2.1% 3.7% 7.5% 11.4% Stressed 6.8% 4.8% 2.0% 4.7% 9.4% 14.2% 57

Deposit Migration EVE 0.0% Percent Change from Base Case 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 300 bps 200 bps 100 bps +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps Regular 16.6% 14.3% 6.5% 1.4% 3.8% 6.8% Stressed 16.1% 14.4% 6.5% 1.9% 4.9% 8.4% 58

Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions 59

Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Alternate Rate Scenarios Asset Growth Deposit Migration Deposit Runoff NMD Assumptions 60

Beta Stress Test Assumptions Regular Betas Stressed Betas Interest Paying DDA 9% 15% MMDA 75% 85% Savings 30% 60% Premier Savings 80% 90% Christmas Club 30% 60% Customer Repo 80% 90% 61

Beta Stress Test NII 0.0% Percent Change from Base Case 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 300 bps 200 bps 100 bps +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps Regular 4.5% 4.0% 1.8% 1.0% 2.5% 4.3% Stressed 4.5% 4.0% 1.8% 2.0% 4.7% 7.6% 62

Average Life Stress Test Assumptions Regular Average Life Stressed Average Life Non Interest Deposits 6 3 Interest Paying DDA 5 2 MMDA 3 2 Savings 6 3 Premier Savings 3 2 Christmas Club 6 3 Customer Repo 3 2 63

Average Life Stress Test EVE 5.0% Percent Change from Base Case 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 300 bps 200 bps 100 bps +100 bps +200 bps +300 bps Regular 17.7% 16.3% 8.9% 0.5% 2.8% 6.0% Stressed 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 6.8% 15.2% 24.1% 64

The Cost of Being Wrong Impact to: Earnings Liquidity Position Risk Profile (NII and EVE) 65

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 66

Other Regulatory Concerns Assumption inputs, documentation, and presentation Stress testing betas, average lives, and prepayment speeds Concern with market value losses Setting policy limits Back testing Liquidity 67

Agenda Evaluating and Anticipating the Rate Environment Understanding Your Current Risk Profile Positioning the Balance Sheet Estimating the Cost of Being Wrong Considering Other Regulatory Concerns 68