Fiscal Plan - 2016 Election Platform
Andrew Jackson Economist Ottawa, Ontario March 14, 2016 Cam Broten Leader of the Saskatchewan s New Democrats 1122 Saskatchewan Drive Regina, Saskatchewan S4P 0C4 Dear Mr. Broten: I have reviewed the costing of your platform. The NDP fiscal framework is based on the Saskatchewan Ministry of Finance s March 2016 Third Quarter Fiscal Update. This assumes that resource prices and economic growth rates will be lower over the medium term than was forecast in the 2015/16 Budget. As a result, the NDP plan forecasts a small deficit in the first year, and small surpluses for the next three years. It is my professional opinion that these are reasonable assumptions. The NDP plan proposes to shift infrastructure funding from a costly and inefficient P3 model, to public service delivery. Based on studies of the experience at the provincial level, this will reduce costs. You are also taking advantage of historically low borrowing costs and a federal commitment to support growth oriented public infrastructure investment by the provinces. A recent study for the Broadbent Institute by the Centre for Spatial Economics showed that such investments boost employment, growth and provincial government revenues in the short term, and expand the longterm revenue base by increasing business sector productivity. As such, higher levels of public investment have net costs for the province well below the nominal level of increases in investment. Yours truly, Original signed by Andrew Jackson Adjunct Research Professor (Economics), Carleton University Senior Policy Advisor, Broadbent Institute
YOUR PRIORITIES. YOUR FAMILY. The Sask. Party inherited a fortune and raked in record revenues year after year. Despite governing during sunny economic times, they drained our Rainy Day Fund and racked up billions of dollars in new debt. Most Saskatchewan people have not seen the benefits of all that spending, because far too much of it was wasted on the Sask. Party s misplaced priorities. Now, Mr. Wall is not being forthcoming with Saskatchewan people. He refused to table a budget and he won t tell us what he ll cut or privatize after the election, if given a chance. In a rare moment of transparency, his finance minister admitted that draconian cuts are on the table. Saskatchewan families can t afford more cuts to public services. Cam Broten and Saskatchewan s New Democrats will cut the Sask. Party s waste, put more money in the pockets of everyday families, and fix and invest in the services we should all be able to count on like health care, seniors care and education. We will get the books back on track, strengthen and diversify our economy, and deliver more good, mortgage-paying jobs and sustainable prosperity. Cam wants to make Saskatchewan stronger. Stronger for middle-class families. Fairer for people working hard to get ahead. Kinder to children just starting out and to grandparents needing care. That s a stronger province. Your province. Your priorities. Your family. 2
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The economic outlook for our province has deteriorated significantly since the Sask. Party s last budget. Private sector forecasts for 2016 vary significantly, from -0.5% from CIBC, to an optimistic 2.5% from RBC. PRIVATE SECTOR REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST FOR SASKATCHEWAN 2015 2016 Budget 2015 Current Rank Current Rank Release Date HIS Global Insight 1.8-0.6 7 0.8 8 Jan-16 Conference Board of Canada 0.8-1.1 8 2 6 Dec-15 The Centre for Spatial Economics 1.4-0.3 8 1 7 Feb-16 TD Bank 1.3-0.9 8 0.9 6 Jan-16 RBC 2.2-0.6 8 2.5 2 Dec-15 BMO 1.9-0.1 7 1.7 5 Dec-15 CIBC 0.8-0.5 7-0.5 8 Jan-16 Scotiabank 1-0.5 7-0.3 7 Feb-16 Laurentian Bank 1 0.4 7 1.6 4 Sep-15 Average of Private Sector Forecasts 1.4-0.5 7 1.1 6 Source: Budget Update and Four-Year Forecast, Saskatchewan Department of Finance Today, there are 8,600 fewer jobs in our province than there were last year at this time. 7,000 more people are unemployed and actively looking for work compared to a year ago. Cam Broten and Saskatchewan s New Democrats will boost our economy through infrastructure investment, diversifying our economy by sparking new industries, and breathing life back into industries that have been abandoned. And we ll grow our province by putting people to work repairing our hospitals, schools, and roads; educating our children; and improving health care and mental health care. 3
FISCAL PLAN SUMMARY (millions of dollars) REVENUES 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Baseline revenue (projections from Sask. Party's four-year forecast, March 2016) $14,212.0 $14,856.0 $15,282.0 $15,677.0 Promised federal operating dollars for home care $13.2 $19.8 $29.7 $33.0 TOTAL REVENUES $14,225.2 $14,876.8 $15,311.7 $15,710.0 EXPENSES 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Baseline expenditure (projections from Sask. Party's four year forecast, March 2016) $14,471.0 $14,806.0 $15,176.0 $15,525.0 Our waste-elimination plan $178.3 $202.0 $217.7 $238.0 Our incremental operating spending costs $121.9 $239.2 $291.6 $327.8 OUR EXPENDITURE PLAN $14,414.6 $14,843.2 $15,250.0 $15,614.8 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 OPERATING SURPLUS/DEFICIT -$189.4 $32.6 $61.7 $95.2 4
CUTTING WASTE (thousands of dollars) TOTAL WASTE CUT (TO BE REDIRECTED TO PRIORITY AREAS) $178,308 $202,012 $217,659 $238,017 Cut size of cabinet $1,104 $1,137 $1,171 $1,206 Reduce number of Premier s political staff $550 $561 $572 $584 End contract with Washington lobbyist $750 $765 $780 $796 Eliminate Lean Kaizen Promotion $20,000 $20,400 $20,808 $21,224 Reduce bloated health administration $25,000 $25,750 $26,523 $27,318 Reduce consultants - Highways $37,800 $38,556 $39,327 $40,114 Reduce consultants - Health $5,300 $5,406 $5,514 $5,624 Reduce consultants - Economy $1,980 $2,020 $2,060 $2,101 Reduce consultants - Government Relations $3,500 $3,570 $3,641 $3,714 Reduce consultants - Education $2,400 $2,448 $2,497 $2,547 Reduce consultants - Central Services $4,300 $4,386 $4,474 $4,563 Reduce consultants - Corrections and Policing $600 $612 $624 $637 Reduce consultants - Finance $1,000 $1,020 $1,040 $1,061 Reduce consultants - Parks, Culture and Sport $740 $755 $770 $785 Reduce consultants - Environment $1,300 $1,326 $1,353 $1,380 Reduce consultants - Agriculture $27 $28 $28 $29 Reduce consultants - Labour $35 $36 $36 $37 Reduce consultants - Social Services $265 $270 $276 $281 Reduce contractor spending - Highways $19,100 $19,482 $19,872 $20,269 Reduce contractor spending - Economy $2,200 $2,244 $2,289 $2,335 Reduce contractor spending - Central Services $5,315 $5,421 $5,530 $5,640 Chop Executive Air $1,000 $2,000 $2,060 $2,122 Sell two airplanes.. $4,000.... Eliminate the Privatization Ministry $15,100 $15,402 $15,710 $16,024 Reallocations to new priorities $28,942 $44,418 $60,704 $77,625 5
YOUR PRIORITIES. YOUR FAMILY. (thousands of dollars) HEALTH TOTAL $42,501 $80,468 $102,096 $112,118 Improved staffing Fast Track pilot program (Nurse Practitioners in ERs) $1,770 $2,407 $3,069 $4,383 More palliative care specialists $440 $880 $1,320 $1,320 Better access to midwifery $700 $714 $728 $743 Improved services Quick Care clinics $1,000 $2,040 $3,121 $4,245 Community paramedic program $400 $800 $816 $832 More specialty clinics $800 $1,632 $2,497 $3,396 Hospice spaces.. $2,550 $5,100 $5,100 City Hospital ER extend hours, 8 am to midnight $814 $824 $840 $857 City Hospital add 40 acute care beds $1,340 $4,092 $5,559 $5,671 Restore surgical funding $10,000 $12,500 $15,000 $17,000 Post-vision loss rehabilitation therapy $500 $510 $520 $531 Enhanced home care $13,200 $19,800 $29,700 $33,000 Enhanced mental health care Mental health specialty clinics.. $1,500 $3,000 $3,600 Mental health care workers for Northern Saskatchewan $938 $1,884 $1,922 $1,960 Cover mental health care for children and youth.. $8,800 $8,976 $9,156 Partner mental health workers with police $800 $816 $832 $849 Fair access to ambulance services End inter-hospital ambulance transfer fee $2,300 $4,600 $4,692 $4,786 End per-kilometer ambulance fee $6,500 $13,100 $13,362 $13,629 Station an Air Ambulance in Northern Saskatchewan $1,000 $1,020 $1,040 $1,061 6
YOUR PRIORITIES. YOUR FAMILY. (thousands of dollars) SENIORS TOTAL $8,600 $18,400 $25,770 $32,641 Better staffing levels in care facilities $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 Enhance the Seniors Income Plan $3,600 $5,400 $7,200 $9,000 Seniors Property Tax Deferral Program.. $2,500 $2,550 $2,601 Seniors Advocate.. $500 $1,020 $1,040 EDUCATION TOTAL $32,447 $45,660 $58,219 $72,202 Early Childhood Education and Care Early Childhood Intervention Programs $975 $1,950 $2,925 $3,900 Early Childhood Development Programs $1,375 $2,750 $4,125 $5,500 Child care spaces $2,000 $4,080 $6,242 $8,490 Higher salaries for early childhood educators $6,402 $6,662 $6,922 $7,182 Class size initiative 300 more educational assistants $3,876 $6,919 $9,074 $12,341 300 more teachers $4,818 $10,038 $15,405 $20,994 Restore mid-year adjustments $8,000 $8,160 $8,323 $8,490 Improved operational funding $5,000 $5,100 $5,202 $5,306 POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION $12,972 $41,870 $43,632 $45,998 Eliminate interest on student loans $2,000 $2,040 $2,081 $2,122 Convert student loans to grants.. $23,500 $23,970 $24,449 Cut tuition for SK students by $1,000/year $4,500 $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 Enhance adult basic education $1,472 $2,230 $3,379 $5,120 Improve funding for universities and colleges $5,000 $5,100 $5,202 $5,306 7
YOUR PRIORITIES. YOUR FAMILY. (thousands of dollars) ECONOMY $16,701 $40,964 $48,631 $51,292 Strengthen and diversify our economy 15% research and development tax credit.. $18,000 $18,360 $18,727 Entrepreneurial incubator and accelerator initiative.. $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 Restore Film Employment Tax Credit $33 $67 $1,000 $1,330 Promote other cultural industries $425 $850 $867 $884 Enhance park funding $250 $700 $700 $700 Farmers' Advocate Office.. $250 $500 $600 Fund the Trappers' Association $50 $60 $70 $75 Skills and training Extend the Provincial Training Allowance to those training on First Nations reserves $5,440 $5,549 $5,660 $5,773 Helping newcomers get their credentials recognized $100 $102 $104 $106 Establish a First Nations and Métis Employment Development Program $1,000 $1,020 $1,040 $1,061 Middle-class tax cut Cut taxes for majority, raise taxes on wealthiest 3% $3,000 $3,060 $3,121 $3,184 Reverse cuts to public service Rebuild Ministry of Highways $5,000 $7,500 $12,000 $12,240 Restore environmental enforcement $1,403 $2,806 $4,209 $5,612 8
YOUR PRIORITIES. YOUR FAMILY. (thousands of dollars) SOCIAL SERVICES/COMMUNITIES $8,700 $11,822 $12,683 $13,573 Support the Housing First approach $5,300 $5,406 $5,514 $5,624 Extend Supplementary Employment Benefits $1,000 $1,020 $1,040 $1,061 Hire more child protection workers $900 $1,836 $2,497 $3,181 Increase support for transition houses $500 $1,020 $1,040 $1,061 Enhance community justice services $1,000 $2,040 $2,080 $2,122 Expand Hub program to Northern Saskatchewan.. $500 $510 $520 OTHER Boundaries Commission (to reduce MLAs to 55).... $600.. TOTAL OPERATING SPENDING $121,921 $239,184 $291,631 $327,824 9
INVESTING IN INFRASTRUCTURE (millions of dollars) Cam Broten and Saskatchewan s New Democrats will invest $6.2 billion in infrastructure over the next four years. This includes the Sask. Party s projected infrastructure spending, plus $558 million in promised federal infrastructure funding. By building and fixing more roads at a reduced cost, we will free up resources to devote to other priority areas: funding municipal infrastructure, fixing up schools, repairing buildings on our campuses, and improving our hospitals and care homes. Source: Budget 2015-16, NDP Platform When it comes to roads, the Sask. Party has been paying more, but paving less. A key cause of this is their gutting of the Highways Ministry and significant contracting out, which has doubled many costs.1 Another reason why the Sask. Party is spending more but building and fixing fewer roads is their flawed procurement policy and weak contracts.2 Cam Broten and Saskatchewan s New Democrats will rebuild the Highways Ministry, fix the procurement process and strengthen contracts so we can build and fix more roads at a reduced cost. The Sask. Party s P3 rental schemes are also expensive and inefficient. We ll put an end to those schemes and save money by investing in Saskatchewan in a smart, efficient and transparent way. After a decade of record resource wealth, the government should not have to borrow to pay for infrastructure. But this past year, the Sask. Party borrowed $700 million for infrastructure, because they blew through all of our resource wealth and had no money left. They have not yet said if further borrowing will be required to fund their projected infrastructure spending in the coming years. However, because of the fiscal mess they have created, we anticipate that some borrowing 1 2 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/outsourcing-doubles-engineering-costs-on-sask-highways-contractors-say-1.2593130 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-highway-construction-delayed-2-3-times-more-than-other-provinces-report-1.3054626 10
for capital projects will likely be necessary. Based on publicly available information, we do not anticipate that borrowing requirements for infrastructure spending will exceed $569 million over the term (roughly $142.5 million per year). While we are debt-averse, we recognize that government borrowing is cheaper and wiser than engaging in P3 projects at credit-card rates. 11