HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CENTRAL CALIFORNIA May 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Trends
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Unemployment dips below 9% 12 U.S. Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate 8 6 4 2 0 Recession
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2010 Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery 0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 1980 1974 1981 1990 Percent Decline in Employment from Peak -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% 2007-7%
Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, Quarterly) 200 180 160 140 120 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted FHFA House Price Index Dips Again at End of 2010 170 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) 160 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress 6,000,000 5,000,000 Number of Mortgages 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Loans in Foreclosure
Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern states Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010
Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through January 2011 HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications 120,000 100,000 80,000 Modifications 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 February March April May June July August September October November December January 2011 New HAMP Trials Started New Permanent Modifications Started
Composition of distressed sales 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Arizona and Nevada California Florida Industrial Midwest Pacific NW South Northeast Rocky Mountain Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties 100% 90% 80% Who Is Buying Properties? February 2011 Percent of Property Type 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Investor First-Time Homebuyer Current Homeowner 0% Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
Financing for home purchases 100% Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 28% 4% 19% 20% 30% 16% 18% 5% 14% 55% 11% 5% 2% 75% All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities Many states within 12 th District face severe budget shortfalls Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget
California Trends
California s unemployment still well above national average 14 12 10 Unemployment Rate 8 6 4 California United States 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment rates particularly high in Central Valley and northern counties Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2011
California house prices appear to be stabilizing 250 230 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) California FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 210 190 170 150 United States 130 110 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
Housing markets in the Central Valley saw greatest declines, but starting to stabilize 270 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index: Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly) 250 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 230 210 190 170 Fresno 150 130 110 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO) Visalia Stockton Merced
Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in foreclosure dropped throughout 2010 800,000 700,000 600,000 Number of Mortgages 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
Maps
Central California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Central California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Central California Data Maps Changes in House Prices Since 2007 Peak February 2011 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index and FRBSF CD Calculations
Conclusions
For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events http://www.frbsf.org/community/