Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy

Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy

Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial setting, banks... 8 Macro-financial setting, households... 9 Financial markets... 11 Financial markets, Sweden... 11 Financial markets, other countries... 1 Banking groups... 13 Income and balance sheet measures... 13 Funding and liquidity measures... 15 Insurance companies... 17

List of charts Chart 1: GDP growth, Sweden... 5 Chart : Unemployment, Sweden... 5 Chart 3: CPI inflation, Sweden... 5 Chart : Repo rate... 5 Chart 5: Economic Tendency indicator... 5 Chart : Confidence indicators for households... 5 Chart 7: Purchasing managers' index, Sweden... Chart 8: New export orders, Sweden... Chart 9: Economic Sentiment Indicator, Euro area... Chart 1: Purchasing managers' index, foreign... Chart 11: GDP growth, different regions... Chart 1: General government debt... Chart 13: Government deficit/surplus... 7 Chart 1: Unit labour cost... 7 Chart 15: Banks assets in relation to GDP... 8 Chart 1: Lending in relation to deposits... 8 Chart 17: Use of foreign wholesale funding... 8 Chart 18: Prices for single-family houses and tenant-owned apartments... 9 Chart 19: Real house prices in Sweden... 9 Chart : Household debt-to-income... 9 Chart 1: Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure... 9 Chart : Household assets and debts... 9 Chart 3: Household savings... 9 Chart : Household debt, international comparison... 1 Chart 5: Credit gap, Sweden... 1 Chart : Swedish stress index... 11 Chart 7: Systemic risk indicator... 11 Chart 8: Five-year CDS premiums, Swedish banks... 11 Chart 9: Indicative breakdown of the risk premium in Sweden... 11 Chart 3: European stress index... 1 Chart 31: Five-year CDS premiums for banks... 1 Chart 3: Five-year CDS premiums for government bonds... 1 Chart 33: Yields on two-year government bonds... 1 Chart 3: Indicative breakdown of the risk premium in the euro zone... 1 Chart 35: Size of central banks balance sheet compared to GDP... 1 Chart 3: Profit before loan losses and loan losses... 13 Chart 37: Credit losses... 13 Chart 38: Swedish banks issue volumes... 13 Chart 39: Swedish banks costs-to-income ratio... 13 Chart : Return on equity... 13 Chart 1: CET1 ratio according to Basel III... 13 Chart : CET1 ratio, international comparison... 1 Chart 3: Adjusted leverage ratio, international comparison... 1 Chart : Basis spread... 15 Chart 5: Credit curve for Swedish covered bonds (compared to the swap rate)... 15 Chart : Swap and covered bond spread... 15 Chart 7: Cost of borrowing in foreign currency and swap to SEK, compared to borrowing domestically... 15 Chart 8: TED spread... 15 Chart 9: Major Swedish banks issue volumes... 1

Chart 5: Maturity within a year of Swedish banks outstanding bonds... 1 Chart 51: The major banks average LCR... 1 Chart 5: The major banks average NSFR... 1 Chart 53: Solvency ratio... 17 Chart 5: Traffic light ratio... 17

Macro and macro-financial setting Swedish macroeconomic setting Chart 1: GDP growth, Sweden Chart : Unemployment, Sweden 8 8 - - - 9% 75% - 5% Outcome Forecast -8 7 9 11 13 15 - - -8 Chart 3: CPI inflation, Sweden Chart : Repo rate 5 9% 75% 5% Outcome Forecast 5 7 5 9% 75% 5% Outcome Forecast 7 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1-1 -1-1 -1-7 9 11 13 15 - - 7 9 11 13 15 - Chart 5: Economic Tendency indicator Chart : Confidence indicators for households

Foreign macroeconomic setting Chart 7: Purchasing managers' index, Sweden Chart 8: New export orders, Sweden 75 75 5 5 55 55 5 5 35 35 5 8 9 1 11 1 13 5 Chart 9: Economic Sentiment Indicator, Euro area Chart 1: Purchasing managers' index, foreign 5 China USA Euro area 5 55 55 5 5 5 5 35 35 3 8 1 1 3 Chart 11: GDP growth, different regions Chart 1: General government debt 15 15 1 1 75 75 5 5 - KIX The world - USA Euro area - 98 1 1 - - - Spain Portugal 5 Italy Finland United Kingdom Germany Sweden 9 95 5 1 5

Chart 13: Government deficit/surplus Chart 1: Unit labour cost 1 5 1 5 1 13 Spain Portugal Italy Finland United Kingdom Germany Sweden 1 13 1 1-5 -5 11 11 Spain Portugal -1 Italy Finland United Kingdom Germany Sweden -15 8 85 9 95 5 1-1 -15 1 9 8 1 1 1 9

Macro-financial setting, banks Chart 15: Banks assets in relation to GDP Switzerland United Kingdom Netherlands Sweden Spain Denmark France Germany Austria Ireland Portugal Average Greece Italy Belgium Luxembourg Slovenia Finland Latvia Hungary Poland Bulgaria Romania Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Czech Republic Chart 1: Lending in relation to deposits Handelsbanken Swedbank Nordea SEB 1 3 5 7 The major Swedish banks foreign operations 5 1 15 5 Chart 17: Use of foreign wholesale funding

Macro-financial setting, households Chart 18: Prices for single-family houses and tenant-owned apartments Chart 19: Real house prices in Sweden Chart : Household debt-to-income Chart 1: Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure Chart : Household assets and debts Chart 3: Household savings

Chart : Household debt, international comparison Chart 5: Credit gap, Sweden

Financial markets Financial markets, Sweden Chart : Swedish stress index Chart 7: Systemic risk indicator 1,9,8,7,,5,,3,,1 Stock market Bond market Money market Foreign exchange market Stress index Chart 8: Five-year CDS premiums, Swedish banks 5 35 3 5 15 1 5 8 9 1 11 1 13 Handelsbanken Swedbank Nordea SEB Chart 9: Indicative breakdown of the risk premium in Sweden 1 9 8 7 5 3 1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-13 Credit risk premium Liquidity risk premium

Financial markets, other countries Chart 3: European stress index Chart 31: Five-year CDS premiums for banks 1,,9,8,7,,5,,3,,1, Money market Bond market Stock market Financial intermediaries Foreign exchange market Stress index 5 3 1 jan-1 apr-1 jul-1 okt-1 jan-13 Sweden Great Britain Core countries Spain and Italy Chart 3: Five-year CDS premiums for government bonds 1 1 1 1 8 9 1 11 1 13 Germany Greece Portugal Italy Spain Irland Chart 3: Indicative breakdown of the risk premium in the euro zone 18 1 1 1 1 8 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1 Jul-1 Credit risk premium Liquidity risk premium Chart 33: Yields on two-year government bonds 1 8 - jan-1 apr-1 jul-1 okt-1 jan-13 France Germany Portugal Ireland Italy Spain Chart 35: Size of central banks balance sheet compared to GDP 35 3 5 15 1 5 7 8 9 1 11 1 Sweden USA Euro Zone Great Britain

Banking groups Income and balance sheet measures Chart 3: Profit before loan losses and loan losses Chart 37: Credit losses Chart 38: The major banks income Chart 39: Swedish banks costs-to-income ratio Chart : Return on equity Chart 1: CET1 ratio according to Basel III

Chart : CET1 ratio, international comparison Chart 3: Adjusted leverage ratio, international comparison Handelsbanken Swedbank SEB Nordea Swedbank SEB Nordea 8 1 1 1 1 18 Handelsbanken 8 1

Funding and liquidity measures Chart : Basis spread 1 1 8 jan-11 apr-11 jul-11 okt-11 jan-1 apr-1 jul-1 okt-1 jan-13 USA Euro Zone Great Britain Sweden Chart : Swap and covered bond spread 1,8 1, 1, 1, 1,8,,, 9 1 11 1 13 Swap spread Covered bond spread Chart 5: Credit curve for Swedish covered bonds (compared to the swap rate) 1 1 8 - year 5 year Chart 7: Cost of borrowing in foreign currency and swap to SEK, compared to borrowing domestically 1 1 8 - - - -8-1 feb-11 maj-11 aug-11 nov-11 feb-1 maj-1 aug-1 nov-1 feb-13 USD EUR Chart 8: TED spread 18 1 1 1 1 8 jan-11 apr-11 jul-11 okt-11 jan-1 apr-1 jul-1 okt-1 jan-13 3M TED M TED

Chart 9: Major Swedish banks issue volumes Chart 5: Maturity within a year of Swedish banks outstanding bonds Chart 51: The major banks average LCR Chart 5: The major banks average NSFR 3 5 15 1 5 Total US dollar Euro 15 1 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 5 3 1 September 11 March 1 September 1 March 1 September 1

Insurance companies Chart 53: Solvency ratio Chart 5: Traffic light ratio