VIHIGA COUNTY GOVERNMENT

VIHIGA COUNTY GOVERNMENT COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2017 KENYA Towards a Globally Competitive Prosperous Nation Page i

Foreword The Vihiga County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2017 lays down the framework for the preparation of the 2017/2018 County budget in accordance with the Public Finance Management Act 2012, section 117. It sets out the County Government of Vihiga s economic policies key priority programs to be implemented in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in line with Vihiga County Integrated Development Plan 2013-2017. The County priorities goals outlined herein are based on the County Integrated Development Plan with focus on: Provision of quality water improved sanitation services, Accessible Health Care, Improvement of l services, Quality Education Transport Infrastructure. The Fiscal Framework hereby presented provides the means for the County to strengthen devolution for a transformative shared prosperity in Vihiga County. Attainment of the set programs calls for greater transparency, effectiveness efficiency in public financial management in order to ensure fiscal discipline safeguard macroeconomic stability. MOSES LUVISI COUNTYEXECUTIVE COMMITEE MEMBER FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING. Page ii

Acknowledgement The Vihiga County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2017 is a result of contribution concerted efforts of many people. The paper is informed by the Public Finance Management Act 2012 Section 117 (1) which stipulates that the County Treasury should prepare the Fiscal Strategy Paper for the County. This Strategy Paper sets out broad strategic priorities policy goals that will guide the Vihiga County Government in preparing its budget for coming Financial Year 2017/2018 over the medium term. The preparation of this fiscal strategy paper continues to be a collaborative effort from an array of expertise of professionals key stakeholders in the County. Most of the information in this paper has been obtained from the National County Government policy papers, Agencies. We are grateful for their inputs. We are also grateful for those who provided inputs during the various budgeting forums conducted in the County, in addition to comments from the Commission for Revenue Allocation other stakeholders. We are particularly grateful to His Excellency the Governor for his lead role, direction guidance in developing this document; His Excellency the Deputy Governor, the County Secretary, County Executive Member for Finance Economic Planning, the County Budget Economic Forum for their input in providing much needed information to the team working on this County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2017. Special thanks goes to the technical team in the Finance Economic Planning department who spent a significant amount of time putting together this Paper. WILBERFORCE NDULA CHIEF OFFICER, FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING Page iii

Abbreviations Acronyms AMS - Agricultural Machinery Services ATC - Agricultural Training College CFSP - County Fiscal Strategy Paper CIDP - County Integrated Development Plan CILOR Contribution In lieu of rates CRA - Commission on Revenue Allocation EAC - East African community ECD - Early Childhood Development ECDE - Early Childhood Development Education EIA - Environmental Impact Assessment EII - Infrastructure Information Communication Technology EMCA - Environmental Management Coordination Act. FY - Financial Year GDP Gross Domestic Product GER - Gross Enrollment Rate GII - Gender Inequality Index GIS - Geographical Information Systems ICS Innovation Creation Services ICT- Information Communication Technology IFMIS - Integrated Financial Management Information System KAIS Kenya Aids Survey KMTC - Kenya Medical Training Centre KNBS - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KPI - Key Performance Indicators LA Local Authorities LAIFOMS - Local Authorities Integrated Financial Operating Management Systems LPG - Liquid Petroleum Gas MCA - Members of the County Assembly Page iv

MCH Maternal Child Health MDA - Ministries, Departments Agencies MDG Millennium Development Goal MIS Malaria Indicator Survey MTEF - Medium Term Expenditure Framework MTP -The Medium Term Plan NEMA - National Environmental Management Authority OVC - Orphan vulnerable child PBO Parliamentary Budget Office PFM - Public Finance Management PFM Public Finance Management PPP Public Private Partnership PSV - Public Service Vehicles SBP Single Business Permits SDG - Global Sustainable Development Goals TTC - Teachers Training College TTI - Technical Training Institutes WHO - World Health Organization Page v

Table of Contents Foreword... ii Acknowledgement... iii Abbreviations Acronyms... iv Executive Summary... viii Legal Context... xi FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY PRINCIPLES... xiv Fiscal Responsibility Principles in the Public Financial Management Law... xiv ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK... 17 GENERALOVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ECONOMY... 17 Global Economic developments... 17 THE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE OFVIHIGACOUNTY... 19 The Macro-economic framework... 19 County Development Objectives Targets... 19 CHAPTER THREE: PERFORMANCE OF THE 2015/16 BUDGET... 20 Overview of Fiscal performance... 20 EXPENDITURE REVIEW FOR 2015/16... 20 REVENUE PERFOMANCE FOR 2015/16... 21 Revenue Analysis... 21 EQUITABLE SHARE... 24 Table 3.134: Vihiga County analysis of conditional grant releases in FY 2015/16... 25 EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE FOR 2015/16... 26 Analysis of Budget Performance by Department... 26 Observations Recommendations... 29 RISKS TO THE 2016/17 BUDGET FRAMEWORK... 31 Overview... 31 Specific Macroeconomic Fiscal Risks... 31 Changes in Underlying Macroeconomic Assumptions... 31 Public Debt Sustainability... 33 Debt Sustainability Risks... 33 CHAPTER FOUR: MEDIUM TERM STRATEGY (2016/17-17/18)... 34 4.1. Medium Term Fiscal Envelop... 34 CHARPTER FIVE: DETAILS FOR CEILINGS AND PRIORITIES FOR THE DEPARTMENTS... 36 Page vi

Resource Sharing Guidelines... 36 CEILINGS FOR THE DEPARTMENTS OVER THE MEDIUM TERM... 36 COUNTY S STRATEGIC PRIORITIES PER DEPARTMENT FOR THE FY 2017/18... 38 COUNTY EXECUTIVE... 38 Vision... 38 COUNTY ASSEMBLY... 39 FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING... 39 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FISHERIES & CO-OPERATIVES... 40 Vision... 40 Mission... 40 DEPARTMENT OF COUNTY HEALTH SERVICES... 41 Vision... 41 Mission... 41 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY... 42 Vision... 42 Mission... 42 DEPARTMENT OF WATER, ENVIRONMENT, FORESTRY AND NATURAL RESOURCES... 43 DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE... 43 Vision... 43 Mission... 44 DEPARTMENT OF GENDER, CULTURE, SPORTS AND YOUTH... 44 DEPARTMENT OF LANDS, HOUSING, PHYSICAL & URBAN PLANNING... 45 Vision... 45 Mission... 45 COUNTY PUBLIC SERVICE BOARD... 46 PUBLIC SERVICE AND ADMINISTRATION... 46 DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIALIZATION, TRADE AND TOURISM... 47 Vision... 47 To position Vihiga County as a preferred destination for Trade, Industrial Investments Tourism in Kenya.. 47 Mission... 47 ANNEX 1: THE PUPLIC CONTRIBUTIONS ON THE PROPOSALS OF THE 2016/17 BUDGET... - 1 - Page vii

Executive Summary The fiscal strategy of the County Government of Vihiga for the year 2017/2018 is set out in this paper. The CFSP is prepared in accordance to PFM Act section 117 which states that, the County Treasury shall prepare submit to the County Executive Committee the County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) for approval then shall submit the approved Fiscal Strategy Paper to the County Assembly, by the 28th February of each year. The contents of the CFSP are largely informed by the PFM Act section 117(2) which provides for the aligning of the CFSP with the national objectives in the Budget Policy Statement. The fiscal framework is guided by various principles which are in line with the medium term expenditure framework the County Integrated Development Plan ( CIDP) among them: A strong revenue effort to ensure that the County budget has no deficit, budget expenditures are consistent with agreed County sectorial priorities with increased shift away from recurrent to capital expenditures while ensuring resources for operation maintenance of capital stock is provided for while at the same time providing sufficient fiscal space for infrastructural social programmes necessary to achieving CIDP. The critical programmes to be implemented are expected to accelerate economic activities socio-economic development. The key County priority areas are; investing in quality accessible Health Care, Improved L Services, Investment in Water & Transport Infrastructure, Provision of Quality Education, Youth, Sports & Gender empowerment improve business. The County Government is committed to ensuring prudence in public expenditure management. The County fiscal strategy Paper serves as the basis for the preparation of the annual Page viii

estimates of revenue expenditure for the County of Vihiga Budget 2017-18. The County fiscal strategy Paper is a crucial requirement according to the Public Finance Management Act, 2012 as it requires the adoption of a multi-year perspective in budgeting to allocate public resources on a rolling basis over the medium-term. The County fiscal strategy Paper 2017 is in line with the 2017 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) which is prepared against a backdrop of slow global economic growth owing to a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the UK vote in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit) weaker than expected growth in the United States a sharp slowdown among Sub-Saharan African economies especially commodity exporters. However, the Kenyan economy remains resilient registering strong economic growth of 5.6 percent in 2015 compared to the average growth of 3.4 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 percent for global economy. Further, our macroeconomic performance remains broadly stable with overall inflation within target, Kenya Shilling exchange rate to the US dollar remaining stable low short term interest rates, a reflection of ample liquidity in the money market. The economy is projected to grow at 6.0 percent in 2016 over6.5 percent in the medium term The Global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, a slowdown from a growth of 3.4 percent in 2014 projected to gather some pace in 2016 to 3.6 percent due to the recovery in growth in advanced economies. However, with declining commodity prices, depreciating emerging market currencies, increasing financial market volatility, downside risks to the outlook have risen, particularly for emerging markets developing economies. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slowdown in 2015 to 3.8 percent from 5.0 percent in 2014 due to declining commodity prices, particularly oil as well as lower dem from China (the largest single trade partner of Sub-Saharan Africa) the tightening of global financial conditions for the region s frontier market economies. Kenya s macroeconomic Page ix

performance remains broadly stable despite the global economic slowdown. The economy s growth momentum has been strong supported by significant investment in infrastructure, construction mining sectors, strong recovery in tourism lower energy prices improved agricultural production following improved weather conditions. Inflation is within the target b due to prudent monetary policy management while interest rates are low stable despite global financial pressures following the enactment of the Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015. In the financial year 2017/2018 the Vihiga County estimates total revenue amounting to 4.79 billion; Equitable Share of Kshs 4.386 Billion, Compensation for user fees foregone KShs 13.65 Million, Free maternity Health care Ksh69.8 Million, DANIDA Health care support services Kshs. 7 Million, Road Maintenance Levy Ksh67.4 Million, Kenya Devolution Support Programme Ksh 26.78 Million local collected revenue of 220 Million. During the last fiscal year, the County government faced a number of challenges ranging from budget implementation, fiscal policy challenges these challenges will be tackled by effectively operationalizing the MTEF, through deepening the existing institutional framework, increased partnership between the public, private, civil community organizations in prioritizing of needs allocation of resources, coming up with realistic revenue projections, strengthening planning budgeting capacities at the County levels through provision of adequate resources, improving on the systems of accountability transparency ensuring that all budgeting processes are grounded on a firm legal framework. Page x

Legal Context Page xi

The Vihiga County Fiscal Strategy Paper is prepared in accordance with Section 117 of the Public Finance Management Act, 2012. It states that; (1) The County Treasury shall prepare submit to the County Executive Committee the County Fiscal Strategy Paper for approval the County Treasury shall submit the approved Fiscal Strategy Paper to the County Assembly, by the 28th February of each year. (2) The County Treasury shall align its County Fiscal Strategy Paper with the national objectives in the Budget Policy Statement. (3) In preparing the County Fiscal Strategy Paper, the County Treasury shall specify the broad strategic priorities policy goals that will guide the County government in preparing its budget for the coming financial year over the medium term. (4) The County Treasury shall include in its County Fiscal Strategy Paper the financial outlook with respect to County government revenues, expenditures borrowing for the coming financial year over the medium term. Page xii

(5) In preparing the County Fiscal Strategy Paper, the County Treasury shall seek take into account the views of ( a) The Commission on Revenue Allocation; ( b) The public; ( c) Any interested persons or groups; ( d) Any other forum that is established by legislation. (6) Not later than fourteen days after submitting the County Fiscal Strategy Paper to the County Assembly, the County Assembly shall consider may adopt it with or without amendments. (7) The County Treasury shall consider any recommendations made by the County Assembly when finalizing the budget proposal for the financial year concerned. (8) The County Treasury shall publish publicize the County Fiscal Strategy Paper within seven days after it has been submitted to the County Assembly. Page xiii

FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY PRINCIPLES Fiscal Responsibility Principles in the Public Financial Management Law In line with the Constitution, the Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 2012 outlines the fiscal responsibility principles to ensure prudency transparency in the management of public resources. The PFM Act (Section107) states that: 1. A County Treasury shall manage its public County Treasury to enforce fiscal responsibility principles finances in accordance with the principles of fiscal responsibility set out in subsection (2), shall not exceed the limits stated in the regulations. 2. In managing the County Government s public finances, the County Treasury shall enforce the following fiscal responsibility principlesa) The County Government s recurrent expenditure shall not exceed the County Government s total revenue; b) Over the medium term a minimum of thirty percent of the County Government s budget shall be allocated to the development expenditure; c) The County Government s expenditure on wages benefits for its public officers shall not exceed a percentage of the County Government s total revenue as prescribed by the County Executive member for finance in regulations approved by the County Assembly; d) Over the medium term, the Government s borrowings shall be used only for the purpose of financing development expenditure not for recurrent expenditure; e) The County debt shall be maintained at a sustainable level as approved by County Assembly; f) The fiscal risks shall be managed prudently; Page xiv

A reasonable degree of predictability with respect to the level of tax rates tax bases shall be maintained, taking into account any tax reforms that may be made in the future. The regulations in Section 25. (1) States that In addition to the fiscal responsibility principles set out in section 107 of the Act, the following fiscal responsibility principles shall apply in the management of public finances (a) the County Executive Committee Member with the approval of the County Assembly shall set a limit on the County government s expenditure on wages benefits for its public officers pursuant to section 107(2) of the Act; (b) the limit set under paragraph (a) above, shall not exceed thirty five (35) percent of the County government s total revenue; (c) for the avoidance of doubt, the revenue referred to in paragraph (b) shall not include revenues that accrue from extractive natural resources including as oil coal; (d) the County public debt shall never exceed twenty(20%) percent of the County governments total revenue at any one time; (e) the County annual fiscal primary balance shall be consistent with the debt target in paragraph (f) the approved expenditures of a County Assembly shall not exceed seven per cent of the total revenues of the County government or twice the personnel emoluments of that County Assembly, whichever is lower; (g) pursuant to section 107(5) of the Act, if the County government actual expenditure on development shall be at least thirty percent in conformity with the requirement under section 107(2)(a) of the Act; Page xv

(h) if the County government does not achieve the requirement of regulation 25(1)(f) above at the end of the financial year, the County executive committee member for finance shall submit a responsibility statement to County Assembly explaining the reasons for the deviation provide a plan on how to ensure annual actual expenditure outturns as well as medium term allocation comply with the provisions of Section 107 (2) (a) of the Act these regulations in the subsequent years; (i) the compliance plan above shall be binding the County executive committee member for finance shall ensure implementation. Page xvi

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK GENERALOVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ECONOMY Global Economic developments The global economic growth outlook remains subdued in 2016, though expected to recover gradually in 2017 beyond. The new shocks to the outlook include: Britain s referendum resulting in favor of leaving the European Union; ongoing realignments among emerging developing economies, such as adjustment of commodity exporters to a protracted decline in the terms of trade; slow-moving trends, such as demographics the evolution of productivity growth; as well as noneconomic factors, such as geopolitical political uncertainty. Global growth is estimated at 2.9 percent in the first half of 2016, slightly weaker than in the second half of 2015 lower than the projected growth in the April 2016. The forecast for 2016 2017 is 3.1 percent 3.4percent, respectively. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to weaken from 3.4 percent in 015 to 1.4 percent in 2016, occasioned by the repercussions of declining commodity prices, particularly those for oil, as well as lower dem from China, the largest single trading partner of sub-saharan Africa, the tightening of global financial conditions for the region s frontier market economies. Among the region s oil importers, a majority will continue to experience Solid growth, especially low-income countries, where investment in infrastructure continues private consumption remains strong. The growth will pick up in 2017 to 2.9 percent, driven by sustained infrastructure investment; buoyant services sectors, strong agricultural production, even as oil-related activities provide less support. Page 17

According to the 2017 Budget Policy Statement, the economy is projected to exp further by 6.0 percent in 2016/17 above 6.5 percent in the medium term supported by strong output in agriculture with a stable weather outlook, continued recovery of tourism completion of key public projects that is roads, rail energy generation. In addition, strong consumer dem private sector investment as well as stable macroeconomic environment will help reinforce this growth. The growth of the country s economy will directly impact on the economic situation of County. More importantly a lower economic performance will imply that the Country s revenue base will be subdued, implying a lower share of the National Revenue to Vihiga County. To cushion the County Government from these externalities, the County will strive to enhance its local revenue collections. Page 18

THE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE OFVIHIGACOUNTY The Macro-economic framework The County Government will continue to implement the development programmes as outlined in the CIDP the Medium Term Framework. The broad objective involves addressing increasing poverty, rising unemployment, unstable macro-economic environment in the County. The strategy recognized that development can only be possible if the transport infrastructure, learning institutions, health sector, business environment the human capital are improved. The County budget for the Financial Year 2017/18 will thus focus in enhancing social sectors (education, social protection health) as well as investments in agricultural development, expansion maintenance of infrastructure increased access to clean safe water. County Development Objectives Targets As a way to alleviate the numerous development social challenges, the County government has set the following objectives targets to be accomplished during the period: Reduce the level of poverty through community empowerment programs Improve road network access to energy in major markets urban centers in the County. Increase local enterprise to enable a high level of investment for sustainable development Increase access to social amenities, education health To ensure sustainable utilization of the local resources in a stable environment To improve agricultural productivity in the County ensure food security in all households. Increase incentive for private sector participation in the County development agenda. Adopt a more transparent, participatory accountable management of County resources Consolidate exp local revenue collections Page 19

CHAPTER THREE: PERFORMANCE OF THE 2015/16 BUDGET Overview of Fiscal performance The fiscal performance in FY 2015/16 was generally satisfactory. The fiscal performance has however faced myriad of challenges that included; Delays in disbursement of funds by the national treasury Internet connectivity challenges resulting in delays of payments Under performance of the local revenue collection Changes in payment procedures in IFMIS to e-procurement EXPENDITURE REVIEW FOR 2015/16 The County Assembly approved the 2015/16 budget in June 2015 further a supplementary budget on 5th November 2015. The approved supplementary budget amounted to Ksh 4.37 billion with Ksh 2.54 billion (58.1 %) allocated to recurrent expenditure Ksh 1.83 billion (41.9%) to development expenditure. To finance the budget, the County expected to receive Kshs.3.87 billion (88.5 per cent) as equitable share of revenue raised nationally, Kshs.144.19 million (3.3 per cent) as total conditional grants, generate Kshs.352.16 million (8.1 per cent) from local sources, had a cash balance of Kshs.4.33 million (0.1 per cent) from FY 2014/15. The conditional grants comprised of Kshs.67.91 million (47.1 per cent) for Free Maternal HealthCare, Kshs.49.18 million (34.1 per cent) from the Road Maintenance Fuel Levy Fund, Kshs.12.93 million (9.0 per cent) for User Fees Foregone Kshs.14.17 million (9.8 per cent) as a grant from DANIDA. Page 20

REVENUE PERFOMANCE FOR 2015/16 Own revenues The Constitution in article 209 (3) has mated Counties the exclusive powers to impose taxes charges. In particular, counties may impose: i. property taxes; ii. entertainment taxes iii. Or any other tax or charges authorized by the Vihiga County Finance Act 2015. Revenue raised by County Government constitutes own revenues will not be part of the pool of revenues subject to sharing between the two levels of Government. In exercising the County s revenue raising powers, Article 209 (5) of the Constitution prohibits Counties from doing so in a way that prejudices national economic policies, economic activities across County boundaries or the national mobility of goods, services, capital or labor should be complied with. The County s share of own revenue was operationalized through the passage of Vihiga County Finance Act 2016 Vihiga County Revenue Administration act 2015. Revenue Analysis During the year, the County received Kshs.3.87 billion as equitable share of the revenue raised nationally, Kshs.117.59 million as total conditional allocations, raised Kshs.138.94 million from local sources, had a cash balance of Kshs.4.33 million brought forward from FY 2014/15. However, the expected total County revenue were as follows Kshs.3.87 billion as equitable shares of revenue raised nationally kshs.144.19million as total conditional grant, Kshs.352.16 million from local sources cash balance of Kshs.4.33million from FY 2014/15. Page 21

The table below shows the expected actual total County revenue NO REVENUE SOURCE EXPECTED REVENUE (Kshs. Million) ACTUAL REVENUE (Kshs. Million) 1 National share 3.870 3.870 2 Conditional allocation 144.19 117.59 3 Local sources 352.16 138.94 4 BALANCE B/F 4.33 4.33 Under achievement in conditional grant was attributed to delay in reporting non-adherence to the set conditions by the donor. Quarterly trend of local revenue collection from FY 2013/14-2015/16 is as shown in the figure below Vihiga County, Trend in Local Revenue Collection by Quarter from FY 2013/14 to FY 2015/16 Source: Vihiga County Treasury The total local revenue collected in FY 2015/16 of Kshs.138.94 million consisted of Kshs.34.89 million generated in the first quarter, Kshs.27.38 million in the second quarter, Kshs.32.90 million Page 22

in the third quarter Kshs.43.76 million in the fourth quarter. The revenue was 39.5 per cent of the annual local revenue target. However, this was an improvement of 20.4 per cent from what was collected in FY 2014/15. The table provides an analysis of the local revenue collected in FY 2015/16 by revenue stream. Vihiga County analysis of revenue collected by stream in FY 2015/16 No. Revenue Stream 1 Application renewal of license Annual Targeted Revenue (Kshs.) Annual Actual Revenue Actual Revenue as a percentage of Annual Target (%) 920,000 1,014,255 110.2 2 Bus park fees 44,873,915 37,472,360 83.5 3 Market fees 18,500,000 13,618,577 73.6 4 Plan approval 1,120,944 476,130 42.5 5 Single business permit 53,104,577 20,557,712 38.7 6 Other Revenue sources 214,857,432 62,345,577 29.0 7 Rent income 3,847,416 1,069,804 27.8 8 Rates 4,026,585 991,266 24.6 9 Group registration 908,012 218,650 24.1 10 Motor cycle stickers 3,000,000 704,730 23.5 11 Advertising wall bring 7,000,000 469,220 6.7 Total 352,158,881 138,938,281 39.5 Source: Vihiga County Treasury Analysis of the local revenue collected by stream indicated that application renewal of license fees recorded the highest performance against annual target at 110.2 per cent. This was followed by bus park fees at 83.5 per cent market fees at 73.6 per cent. However, group registration, motorcycle stickers advertising wall bring revenue streams preformed dismally with percentages of 24.1, 23.5 6.7 respectively against their targets Page 23

The County deposited all locally generated revenue into the County Revenue Fund account maintained at Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) as required by Article 207 (1) of the Constitution. EQUITABLE SHARE The fourth schedule of the Constitution has assigned functions to both levels of Government. The functions are either exclusive to each of the Governments, shared or are residually assigned to the National Government under Article 186. Article 202 of the Constitution requires that revenue raised nationally be shared equitably among the national the County Governments. According to the Constitution, Article 203(2), County Governments must receive at least 15 percent of most recent audited revenues as audited as approved by the national Assembly. From the above County Government of Vihiga received Kshs. 3.87 billion from the equitable share. Conditional Grants All projected receipts from conditional grants were fully realized except for the Free Maternal Health Care which had a performance of 60.8 per cent of the annual target due to delayed disbursement reporting as outlined below. Page 24

Table 3.134: Vihiga County analysis of conditional grant releases in FY 2015/16 No. Conditional Grant Amount allocated as provided in CARA, 2015 (Kshs.) Actual receipt of the Conditional Grant (Kshs.) Actual receipts as a percentage of Annual Allocation (%) 1 Road Maintenance Fuel Levy Fund 49,179,806 49,179,806 100.0 2 Free Maternal Health Care 67,908,400 3 User Fees Forgone 12,928,219 4 DANIDA Grant 14,170,000 Total 144,186,425 Source: Vihiga County Treasury 41,315,000 12,928,219 14,170,000 117,593,025 60.8 100.0 100.0 81.6 Exchequer Issues During the period under review, the Controller of Budget (COB) authorized withdrawal of Kshs.3.85 billion from the CRF account, which was 88.0 per cent of the Approved Supplementary Budget. The amount represented a decrease of 5.4 per cent from Kshs.4.07 billion authorized in FY 2014/15.this could be attributed to slow absorption rate due to stringent procurement rule. Amount authorized for withdrawal consisted of Kshs.2.65 billion (69.0 per cent) for recurrent expenditure Kshs.1.19 billion (31.0 per cent) for development activities. Page 25

EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE FOR 2015/16 Analysis of Budget Performance by Department During the period under review the annual budget estimate the budget performance by Department as shown below. Vihiga County, FY 2015/16 Budget Performance by Department Department Budget Allocation (Kshs.Million) Exchequer Issues (Kshs.Million) Expenditure (Kshs.Million) Expenditure to Exchequer Issues (%) Expenditure to Budget Allocation (Absorption rate ( % )) Rec Dev Rec Dev Rec Dev Rec Dev Rec Dev County Executive 262.09 50 256.7 0 201.29 40.16 78.4 76.8 80.3 County Assembly 669.13 103 623.92 50 530.75 32.81 85.1 65.6 79.3 31.9 County Treasury 279.56 598.99 271.61 549.89 240.92 390.93 88.7 71.1 86.2 65.3 County PSB 54.32 0 54.09 0 30.14 0 55.7 55.5 Public Service & Administration Gender, Culture, Youth & Sports Environment, Natural Resources, Water Forestry Agriculture, Livestock Fisheries Ls Housing Transport Infrastructure 225.19 6.4 222.28 0 169.96 0 76.5 75.5 0.0 49.7 70.9 47.48 0 38.59 17.84 81.3 77.6 25.2 73.37 40.6 73.29 14.91 36.34 7.1 49.6 47.6 49.5 17.5 130.13 30.75 129.88 14.14 91.32 11.77 70.3 83.2 70.2 38.3 28.31 44.05 28.12 15 15.54 4.75 55.3 31.7 54.9 10.8 55.88 230.08 53.24 221.08 33.94 326.74 63.7 147.8 60.7 142.0 Page 26

Industrialization, Trade Tourism 45.7 81.4 45.36 5 16.04 28.89 35.4 577.8 35.1 35.5 Health Services 738.67 181.21 737.63 123.88 579.61 31.56 78.6 25.5 78.5 17.5 Education Science Technology 114.13 204.2 109.98 197.58 52.74 77.63 48.0 39.3 46.2 38.0 Total 2,726.18 1,641,58 2,653.58 1,191.48 2,037.18 970.28 76.8 81.4 74.8 59.1 The County government realized the lowest expenditure of Kshs.3.01 billion vis a vi the target of Kshs 4.37 billion as contained in the budget FY 2015/16. This was attributed to the following challenges Slow cumbersome tendering process, especially with the introduction of e-procurement. Slow late disbursement of funds from the national treasury Lack of legal framework mechanisms to facilitate private public partnership Political interferences especially from the legislative oversight arm, in the implementation of projects administration of payments. Limited capacity of the contractors in terms of finances equipment which often led to poor workmanship Limited access to ICT infrastructure especially in the rural parts of the County due to lack of energy or poor internet coverage. Advancement frequently emerging changes development in the ICT sector Resistance to change slow adoption of e-government Technical capacity challenges in application of IFMIS Weak monitoring reporting on County government expenditure Uncoordinated implementation of projects Analysis of expenditure as a percentage of the funds released indicates that Vihiga County attained the lowest percentage of expenditure to total funds released at 78.2 per cent. Page 27

Development Expenditure he County government development budget was Kshs. 1,6 billion spend Kshs.970 million, representing an absorption rate of 59.1 per cent. Recurrent Expenditure The County recorded a decline in recurrent expenditure during the period under review at 74.8 per cent compared to 92.1 per cent reported in the same period in FY 2014/15 Operations Maintenance Expenditure The County spent a total of Kshs.585.80 million on operations maintenance expenses during the period under review, which translated to 24.8 per cent of the total expenditure. However, in FY 2014/15 the County spentkshs.885.68 million (39.6per cent) of the total expenditure this clearly indicates a decline in expenditure on operations maintenance due to a slight improvement in financial management. Analysis of budget performance by department shows that the Department of Transport Infrastructure realized the highest absorption rate of its development budget at 142.0 per cent. This was due to payment of pending bills of the previous financial year. The Department of Health services that of Environment, Natural Resources, Water Forestry had the lowest absorption rate at 17.5 per cent due to delay in procurement process. The Public Service Administration department did not incur any development expenditure. On the other h, the County Treasury had the highest percentage of recurrent expenditure to its recurrent budget at 86.2 per cent because it s a service department while the Department of Industrialization, Trade Tourism had the lowest at 35.1 per cent. Page 28

Observations Recommendations The County has made progress in addressing some of the challenges previously identified as affecting budget implementation. Some of the progress made included: i. Improvement in revenue collection from Kshs.115.4 million in FY 2014/15 to Kshs.138.94 million in FY 2015/16 due to revenue automation, representing an increase of 20.4 per cent. ii. Adherence to the budget preparation cycle as provided for in the PFM Act, 2012. iii. Enforcing expenditure management control. Despite the progress, the following challenges continued to hamper effective budget implementation; i. Expenditure for some Votes exceeded the appropriated amount. For example, the development expenditure by the Department of Transport Infrastructure exceeded the approved supplementary budget allocation by 42 per cent. ii. iii. iv. Rigidity to adopt change especially on e-government. Delays in disbursement of funds from the CRA. Weak monitoring reporting on expenditure. v. Uncoordinated implementation of projects by departments The County should implement the following recommendations in order to improve budget execution; i. The County should enhance budgetary control to ensure expenditure is within the law. ii. Continued partnership stakeholder s engagement in planning, budgeting implementation of County government programs. iii. iv. Enhanced adherence to budget cycle procurement regulations. Strengthen coordination monitoring of County government expenditure. Page 29

v. Facilitate skills development in light of the emerging technological development. The slow disbursement especially with regards to development expenditure has impacted negatively on the County s development agenda. It is worth noting that some of the key flagship projects that will impact positively on the lives of people of Vihiga have not commenced. Nonetheless, with the recent increased base of disbursement of development funds the County Government is committed to implement all planned projects as per the approved supplementary budget FY 2016-2017. More specifically the County is undertaking a rapid response program by fast tracking procurement process. Page 30

RISKS TO THE 2016/17 BUDGET FRAMEWORK Overview The County s development agenda is susceptible to both internal external shocks. This include climate change, inflation, political instability insecurity as well as terrorism threats. The continued slowdown in global growth continues to pose challenges in expansion of the country s economy hence a challenge to County share of national revenue. To this end, maintaining fiscal stability is critical for safeguarding against these adverse effects. As part of requirement under the Public Finance Management Act, 2012 for prudent management of risk, this chapter presents the Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks (SSFR). The Statement highlights the following: The County s debt sustainability analysis indicates that pending debts continue to rise. The challenge in raising substantive amount of local revenue continued to pause a challenge in financing increasing County programs. Macroeconomic assumptions to remain accurate, although revenue collections low absorption of budget remains a key concern. Specific Macroeconomic Fiscal Risks Changes in Underlying Macroeconomic Assumptions The reduction in real GDP depreciation of the exchange rate results in reduction of revenue against expenditures while an increase in inflation value of imports in dollar terms results in higher revenue against expenditures. Overall, when all the shocks are applied at the same time, expenditures increase more or less like revenue resulting in lower share of revenue for the counties. Page 31

The actual performance of fiscal aggregates vis-à-vis target was largely as per target. Own revenue collection performance was broadly dismal with all the revenue categories failing to meet their targets. The underperformance in A-i-A in the devolved departments largely reflects use at source under reporting from the relevant departments. Macroeconomic assumptions play a key role in the formulation of the budget. Changes in these macroeconomic variables create risks to both revenue expenditure projections in this CFSP the budget estimates expenditure being submitted to the County Assembly for approval. The high wage bill remains a challenge in the implementation of the budget. The County government inherited staff from both the national government the defunct Local authorities. Recruitment of additional staff has been done in disregard to job evaluation exercise aimed at staff rationalization to achieve a lean efficient workforce a sustainable wage bill. The lack of clear guidelines for clarity, harmony of operations delay by the National Government in finalizing the CARPS exercise is a drawback. It is expected that the National Treasury will allocate enough funds for staff compensation to support the staff rationalization. Uncertainties associated with low staff productivity other transition issues as the County builds on the developed structures will continue to affect performance. Another major factor affecting performance is the delay in release of funds by the national government which has continued to disrupt the planned activities programmes of the County has hence compromised service delivery. The County Government is working on modalities to improve coordination amongst County Departments, leaders in the County National Government initiatives to help bolster development initiatives. Page 32

Execution of development expenditure was generally below target which reflects low absorption of departments, delays in procurement, late disbursements of funds from the national treasury. The slower-than-programmed spending on development budget poses a risk to the fiscal program. In order to prevent this risk from materializing, the County government has been pressing departments to increase absorption to at least 80-90 percent as part of performance contracting. Moreover, the departments have been asked to submit monthly quarterly implementation reports. Other measures include asking departments to adopt e-procurement planning improve on implementation capacity in managing procurement process. Going forward, there are risks associated with expenditure proposals that cannot be accommodated within the baseline ceilings. Public Debt Sustainability The County Government recognizes the importance of managing debt in a prudent way to ensure the debt burden is sustainable. The latest debt sustainability analysis for Vihiga County indicates rising accumulated pending bills amounting to Kshs. 1,176,407,000 Debt Sustainability Risks The sustainability of Vihiga County s debt depends on macroeconomic performance, enhanced revenue collections a prudent borrowing policy. Page 33

CHAPTER FOUR: MEDIUM TERM STRATEGY (2016/17-17/18) 4.1. Medium Term Fiscal Envelop As per the budget policy statement 2017 County government equitable share allocation for FY 2017/18 is projected to increase by nearly 6.7per cent over above projected total transfers for the year 2016/17, therefore the resource envelop available for the department will also grow proportionately with the growth in the equitable shares. The resource envelop will comprise of the following: i. Equitable Share ii. Compensation for user fees forgone iii. Free Maternity Health Care iv. Road Maintenance Levy Fund v. Leasing Medical Equipment vi. Loans Grants vii. Own Resources viii. Tea Infrastructure Fund ix. Kenya Devolution Support Programme The total available resource for 2017/18 amounts to Kshs.4.79billion of which Kshs.4.25 billion is the equitable share 4.39 million, Kshs 13.7million compensation for user fee foregone Kshs 69.8million, free maternity health care, Kshs 67.4million road maintenance levy,kshs 7.1million loans grants (DANIDA),Kshs 220,million own resources Kshs 26.8million Kenya devolution support program.the table below shows the resource envelop Page 34

Vote Programme Title Budget as per CRA Act 2016 Proposed Resource Envelop 2017/18 Equitable share 4,177,302,901 4,386,168,046 Compensation for user fees 13,002,761 13,652,899 foregone Free maternity Health care 66,469,814 69,793,305 Road Maintenance Levy 64,184,231 67,393,443 Leasing Medical Equipment 95,744,681 Loans Grants(Danida) 7,085,000 7,085,000 Own Resources 220,000,000 220,000,000 Tea Infrastructure Fund 3,937,233 Kenya Devolution Support 25,507,414 26,782,785 Programme Total proposed County revenue 4,673,234,035 4,790,875,477 Source Draft Budget Statement National Treasury Page 35

CHARPTER FIVE: DETAILS FOR CEILINGS AND PRIORITIES FOR THE DEPARTMENTS Resource Sharing Guidelines The allocation of departmental ceilings over the medium term is informed by the following guidelines: Non-discretionary expenditures: This takes first charge includes payment of Salaries wages which are projected not to be above 35 percent of the expected total revenue receipts as per the PFMA regulations. Operations maintenance: Departments are allocated funds for basic operations maintenance. This accounts for 28 percent of the projected total Revenue. Development expenditure: As indicated at least 30 percent of the total revenue that will be available to finance development expenditure. The entire Development kitty will be shared out on the basis of County priorities. Compliance with the existing laws, regulations Government circulars. Further to the above mentioned guidelines, consideration will also be given to completion of ongoing projects in particular focus on investment projects that support social development, economic growth transformation of the County. CEILINGS FOR THE DEPARTMENTS OVER THE MEDIUM TERM County Executive Programme Title Approved Estimates 2016/17 293,747,275 Resource Growth 5% Ceiling 330,973,093 County Assembly 613,773,279 533,773,279 County Treasury 483,055,091 441,612,673 Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries & Cooperatives 179,550,683 188,528,218 Page 36

County health Services 1,278,707,143 1,342,642,500 Education, science & Technology 492,119,547 516,725,524 Gender, Culture, Youth & Sports 201,250,456 211,312,979 Industrialization Trade Tourism 82,855,965 86,998,764 Environment, Natural Resources, Water Forestry 140,743,951 147,781,149 Transport infrastructure 450,769,091 450,769,091 County Public Service board 46,792,161 49,131,769 L, Housing physical Planning 72,997,028 76,646,879 Public Service Administration 394,266,247 413,979,559 Source: County Treasury Observation from the table above Total 4,730,627,917 4,790,875,477 Reduction in the County Assembly ceiling as shown above is due to the law carping the ceiling of the Assembly at Ksh. 533.7 million. While reduction on the County treasury is due to setting aside some funds to carter for emergencies as per the circular instructing County government to set aside an emergency fund kitty.in complying to this we had to reduce the County treasury ceiling add to County executive ceiling hence an increase in the County executive. Transport infrastructure ceiling remains the same as they will focus majorly on maintenance of roads. Departmental ceilings were arrived at based on the departmental priority the views from the public however, we recommend for capital intensive projects to be planned implement based on MTEF basis. Page 37

COUNTY S STRATEGIC PRIORITIES PER DEPARTMENT FOR THE FY 2017/18 COUNTY EXECUTIVE Vision To provide leadership, governance formulation of policies that will enable Vihiga be the lead County in sustainable utilization of resources in a stable environment. Mission To provide leadership policy direction aimed at support of food security programmes, agroindustrial development, trade expansion, employment creation sustainable utilization of available resources. Departmental 2017/18 priorities The department will focus on the following priority areas as outlined below i. Provide leadership through coordination supervision of County government programs i. Ensure effective efficient management of the County functions in service delivery. ii. Increase access to County information Specifically, the County Executive will continue to formulate laws regulation policies regulation governing County government function to facilitate service delivery.it will also focus on audit accountability, performance management, emergency disaster management, cabinet affairs legal services, research development programme. All these activities are estimated to be covered under the ceiling of Kshs. 330,973,093 Page 38

COUNTY ASSEMBLY The Assembly will focus on its core constitutional mate of Oversight, Legislation representation FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING Vision To be a lead entity in provision of quality accounting, financial economic planning services to the public sector in Vihiga. Mission To provide quality accounting services in the public sector through maintenance of accurate accounting records, provision of quality financial reports ensuring prudent management of public funds. Departmental 2017/18 priorities The department will focus on the following priority areas as outlined below i. Increase access to quality, timely effective services in the County ii. Strengthen formulation coordination of policies, planning tracking implementation of projects programmes iii. iv. Capacity building resource mobilization Ensure prudent management of public finance advisory services The department of Finance Economic Planning will focus on improving procurement services, monitoring evaluation, coordination of policy plans, accountings services, audit service budget formulation expenditure management resource mobilization. The above mentioned activities services will be covered under the ceiling Kshs 441,612,673. The ongoing construction of County treasury building continue to be given a priority in FY 2017/18. Page 39

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FISHERIES & CO-OPERATIVES Vision To be an innovative, vibrant lead Department in sustainable management of the Agricultural sector resources for socio economic development, sustainable environmental stability. Mission To promote competitive commercially oriented Agriculture through creation of an enabling Environment sustainable Natural Resource Management in order to improve to ensure Food security. Departmental priorities for FY 2017/18 The department will focus on the following key priority areas as outlined in its strategic plan which are; i. Provide efficient administrative services to the agriculture sector actors. ii. iii. iv. Improve Veterinary services increased livestock Production. Increase quality fish production for enhanced food security livelihoods. Increase crop production for enhanced food security livelihoods. v. Strengthen cooperative movements Management vi. Improve value chains in agricultural production for increased income Specifically, the Department will focus on the following activities to address the above priority areas as outlined in their proposal. The activities will include; Research development, Value chain development, Veterinary Services Extension, Livestock extension, Promotion of fish farming, Crop extension, farm input subsidy, Cash crop production development, Food security initiatives, Cooperative Development Services, Market development promotion value Page 40

addition. These activities will be financed by the departmental ceiling of Kshs. 188,528,218 in FY 2017/18. DEPARTMENT OF COUNTY HEALTH SERVICES Vision An excellent, dynamic globally competitive provider of health services in the County, that contribute to a healthy effective human capital. Mission To deliberately build progressive, responsive sustainable technologically driven, evidencebased client cantered health systems for accelerated attainment of highest stard of health care to all residents of Vihiga County. Departmental priorities for FY 2017/18 The department of health services will focus on the following key priority areas in order to address its strategic objectives; i. Plan implement policies that provide effective efficient health delivery services. ii. iii. iv. Reduce disease incidences for a healthy society. Provide affordable accessible healthcare services Improve maternal child health care. To address the above key priority areas, the department will focus on Human Resource management development, Healthcare financing, Public health services, Community health strategy, Health promotion, medical services, County referral services, immunization, antenatal post natal healthcare maternity services. All these will be financed by the departmental ceiling of Kshs. 1,342,642,500. For capital intensive projects in the department, it would be prudent for it to be Page 41