Consumer Market Monitor UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School Scoil Chéimithe Ghnó Michael Smurfit UCD
Consumer Market Monitor... 1 Executive Summary... 2 Consumer Confidence... 3 Consumer Confidence Annual... 4 Consumer Confidence Monthly... 5 Financial Data/Impact on Spending... 6 Personal Spending on Goods and Services Annual... 7 Personal Spending on Goods and Services Quarterly... 8 Personal Savings Annual... 9 Personal Borrowing Quarterly... 10 Number of House Purchases Quarterly... 11 Ownership Status Of Borrowers... 12 Number of Credit Cards in Circulation Annual... 13 Credit Card Debt Annual... 14 Credit Card Debt Monthly... 15 Retail Sales... 16 Retail Sales Index... 17 Sales of Private Cars... 19 Retail Sales Index Food... 21 Retail Sales Index Bars... 23 Retail Sales Index Department Stores... 25
The Consumer Market Monitor is a service provided by the Marketing Institute of Ireland in collaboration with the UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School. It is designed to track key indicators of confidence and activity in the Irish consumer market as a resource for marketers and the wider business community. It is based on a compilation of data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Central Bank, the European Commission, and other secondary sources. The added value rests in the fact that the information is brought together in a single location and presented in a way that is easy to interpret and use for market analysis and sales planning. It starts by reviewing consumer confidence which has a key influence on the level of spending in the market. It then reviews consumer expectations with regard to future purchases of big ticket items including houses, cars and home improvements. This is followed by a review of actual spending, saving, and borrowing of various types. It then provides information on retail spending in total and for several major product categories. The report is published on the Marketing Institute website at www.mii.ie/cmm and the report will be updated every quarter. 1
Executive Summary
The Irish consumer market continued to be in a very weak state in the second quarter of 2009. Spending in all retail categories continued to decline with property and cars hit hardest. Consumers have reacted cautiously to the ongoing economic problems by increasing savings and curtailing expenditure. Consumer confidence has improved slightly in recent months, however, suggesting that we may be moving beyond the crisis scenario that prevailed last year. Hopefully this presages a gradual resumption in sales activity although the latest forecast is for a reduction of about 8 percent overall for 2009 with a further decline of 4.5 percent in 2010. Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence in Ireland declined steadily over the last three years reaching an all-time low at the end of 2008. There has been a steady although modest lift in consumer confidence in the second quarter of 2009, with June showing the highest level in more than 12 months. This lift, although smaller than experienced in the UK and the rest of Europe, is an encouraging sign although it has yet to feed through into sales. Financial Indicators Consumer spending has fallen by 14 percent from the final quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of this year. The decline was 10.8 percent in Q1 2009 compared with Q1 2008. In contrast, personal savings have increased from 3 percent of disposable income in 2007 to 10 percent this year. This increase is a precautionary response to the rapidly deteriorating prospects for employment and incomes. Personal sector credit declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q1 2009, with the pace of decline becoming more rapid.the number of loans paid out for home purchases declined by 38.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter. This decline was even greater when compared to the same period in the previous year, at 52 percent. Credit card debt decreased very slightly, by 0.8 percent between April and May 2009.This followed a small increase of 1.8 percent between March and April although the latter may have been caused by an increase in interest charges rather than any change in actual spending. Retail Sales The retail sales index has recorded record losses across all sectors, further compounded by the collapse of the motor trade and the rise in cross border shopping. Some of the hardest hit sectors in value terms have been: the motor trade down 42.5 percent for the year to the end of May; household equipment down 27 percent, clothing and footwear down 26.2 percent, department Stores down 17.6 percent, fuel down 21.5 percent, and newspapers/stationery down 14.3 percent. Not surprisingly, perhaps, food has held up best, down just 4.6 percent in volume and 6.5 percent in value. 2
Consumer Confidence
INTRODUCTION Research evidence shows that consumer confidence has a direct and immediate effect on spending and GDP growth, independent of other factors such as interest rates and exchange rates. This section tracks consumer confidence in Ireland, the UK and Europe from 2000 to 2008 on an annual basis. It also shows recent trends in consumer confidence on a month by month basis from January 2006 to June 2009. This information is drawn from the European Commission s Consumer Survey 1 which tracks the level of confidence among consumers across Europe. RECENT TRENDS Consumer confidence in Ireland declined steadily over the last three years reaching an all-time low at the end of 2008. This trend was similar to the UK and the rest of Europe which also tracked downwards to a low point at the end of 2008. There has been a steady though small increase in consumer confidence in April, May and June in Ireland. This rise, although slightly less than has been experienced in the UK and the rest of Europe, is an encouraging sign although it has not yet produced any noticeable increase in spending. 1 Consumer confidence has been measured by the European Commission since 1972 via a survey carried out every month among 40,000 consumers across the EU, including 1,300 in Ireland. The respondents are asked their expectations for the next twelve months with regard to: The financial situation of their household, The general economic situation; Unemployment expectations; and Saving and spending expectations. The answers to these questions are combined to form The Consumer Confidence Indicator. 3
2 Consumer confidence in Ireland was at an all time high in 2000; higher than the European Union and the United Kingdom, by 11.8 and 15.9 percent respectively. All countries experienced a fall in confidence after 9/11 and the dot.com crash. Ireland recovered rapidly from 2003 and reached a peak in 2005, again exceeding its European neighbours. There has been a 25.5 percent drop in consumer confidence between 2005 and 2008. It reached an all-time low in Ireland in 2008 and this was mirrored in the UK and the rest of the EU, where the percentage decline was 17.5 percent and 6.4 percent respectively 3. Fortunately, the trend is reversing in 2009 with some evidence of an improvement in consumer confidence in Ireland, the UK and the rest of the EU. A detailed view of consumer confidence is given in the following graph. It shows a month by month trend from 2006 to June 2009. 2 European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys, Consumer Confidence Indicator 2006 2009, non seasonally adjusted monthly data. 3 Data collection for Ireland ceased from May 2008 but resumed in May 2009. Recent trends extrapolated from KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index. 4
4 A close-up view shows that consumer confidence in Ireland fluctuated significantly throughout 2007, indicative of the impending economic problems. It dropped by 22 percent in the first four months but rose by 17 percent in one month from April to May, which was caused by a momentary anxiety regarding the state of the housing market. It declined again from mid 2007; there was a drop of 11 percent from September 2007 to January 2008, reaching another low point. Confidence improved slightly between May 2008 and December 2008, but the improvement only amounted to 2.2 percent. Confidence showed signs of picking up in Ireland by March 2009, at which time it stood at 2.1 percent below the United Kingdom and 3.1 percent above the rest of Europe 5. It has continued to rise in the second quarter of 2009 and in June confidence reached its highest level in more than 12 months. However, it was still lower than the United Kingdom and Europe by 7.1 percent and 2.1 percent respectively. 4 European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys, Consumer Confidence Indicator 2006 2009, non seasonally adjusted monthly data. 5 Data collection for Ireland ceased from May 2008 but resumed in June 2009. Recent trends for the period from May 2008 May 2009 have been extrapolated from KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index. 5
Financial Data and Impact on Spending
INTRODUCTION This section deals with consumer income and use of credit from financial institutions. It details aggregate consumer spending and borrowing trends. RECENT TRENDS Consumer spending has fallen by 14 percent from the final quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of this year. The decline was 10.8 percent in Q1 2009 compared with Q1 2008. In contrast, personal savings have increased from 3 percent of disposable income in 2007 to 10 percent this year. This increase is a precautionary response to the rapidly deteriorating prospects for employment and incomes. Personal sector credit declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q1 2009, with the pace of decline becoming more rapid. The number of loans paid out for home purchases declined by 38.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter. This decline was even greater when compared to the same period in the previous year, at 52 percent. Credit card debt decreased very slightly, by 0.8 percent between April and May 2009.This followed a small increase of 1.8 percent between March and April although the latter may have been caused by an increase in interest charges rather than any change in actual spending. 6
6 Millions of Euro There has been a steady rise in total personal spending from 2000 to 2008, with a marked acceleration from 2004 7. Spending peaked in 2007 with a record increase of 8.61 percent from the previous year. This was partly influenced by the maturing of the SSIA saving scheme which released a lot of cash into the market. Spending growth slowed in 2008, recording only 2.15 percent growth from 2007, and has declined very significantly in 2009 as the next chart shows. 6 National Quarterly Accounts, CSO. All figures in the graph are in millions of Euros. 7 CSO National Income and Accounts. 7
8 Millions of Euro Personal spending typically peaks each year in the fourth quarter in the run up to Christmas 9. This peak reached an all-time high in the final quarter of 2007which was 9.6 percent higher than the same quarter in 2006. Spending growth slowed in 2008 with an increase of only 6 percent between Q3 and Q4 and this trend has continued in 2009. Consumer spending has fallen by 14 percent from the final quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of this year. It is normal to have a drop in consumer spending between Q4 each year and Q1 of the next year. However, the level of decline in previous years was much less; 3 percent in Q1 2008 and 2 percent in 2007. The decline in Q1 2009 was 10.8 percent compared with Q1 2008. According to a recent report from Bank of Ireland, the first quarter is likely to have marked a low point for the Irish economy. Real consumer spending is expected to drop by 7.5 per cent for the full year 2009, but the decline in retail sales is expected to moderate over the year 10. The Central Bank puts the figure at 8 percent for 2009 and predicts a further decline of 4.5 percent in 2010. 8 National Quarterly Accounts, CSO. All figures in the graph are in millions of Euros. 9 CSO National Income and Accounts 10 The Irish Times. 1.July.2009. Article website address: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0710/1224250386647.html 8
The level of personal saving has increased over the past two years, from a low of 3 percent of disposable income in 2007 to a high of 10 percent this year 11. According to the Central Bank, the dominant factor was the increase in precautionary savings of about 2.5 percent of disposable income last year in the face of rapidly deteriorating prospects for employment and incomes. This trend of increasing savings has also been seen in other countries in a similar response to the economic crisis. The US personal savings rate rose to 4.2% in March (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) and the saving rate of households in the EU27 was 12.2% in the final quarter of 2008, up from 10.8% in the third quarter of 2008 (Eurostat). 11 The Emerald Isle: Wealth in a Downturn, Ronnie O Toole and Garvan Callan, NIB, 2009. 9
12 Millions of Euro Mortgage lending is the largest element in consumer borrowing and it grew very rapidly up to the end of 2007 13. This trend reversed sharply in 2008 which saw a drop of 8.2 percent in the value of mortgages issued. The value of mortgage lending declined by 7 percent in the final quarter of 2008 compared to the same quarter in 2007. Property lending accounted for 61 percent of all personal sector credit in Q1 2009. The annual rate of increase continued to decline in Q1 2009 to 5 percent, down from 11.1 percent the previous year. This was the first time since the data series commenced (in 1990) that repayments actually exceeded loans and reflects the exceptionally low level of activity in the housing market. The annual rate of increase in mortgage lending declined to 2.6 percent in May, the lowest level on record. The number of loans paid out for home purchases declined by 39 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter. This decline was even greater when compared to the same period in the previous year, at 52 percent. Personal sector credit excluding home loans declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q1 2009, with the pace of decline becoming more rapid. Q1 2009 declined 8.2 percent on an annual basis, and compared to an annual rate of increase of 9.4 percent in 2008. The repayment of debt was closely connected with the very weak level of consumer spending. 12 Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin: Statistical Appendix. Figures refer to resident on government credit to personal (private households). 13 Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin: Statistical Appendix. Figures refer to resident on government credit to personal (private households). 0
The number of loans paid out for home purchases is a good indicator of the number of homes being bought and sold in the market. There was a fall of 39 percent in the total number of loans paid out for all home purchases in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter. This is compared with a fall of 34 percent in the number of loans paid out for home purchases between Q4 of 2007 and Q1 2008. There was a 52% decrease in the number of loans paid out for home purchases in Q1 2009 compared with Q1 2008. There was a 71 percent decrease in loans paid for home purchases in Q1 2009 compared with Q1 2007. A recent statement from the president of the Irish Bankers Federation said that there are tentative signs of a pick-up in the level of applications to lenders which, if reflected in increased drawdown activity by borrowers, could be an early indication of increased market activity to come. 14 14 The Irish Bankers Federation. 13.July.2009. Statement website address: http://www.ibf.ie/pressrelease.asp?press_id=298 1
15 The numbers of people applying for residential mortgages is evenly split between first-time buyers and movers which, together, make up about 75 percent of the market. Buy-to-let buyers made up the rest of the market. The proportion of first time buyers compared to other house purchasers has remained relatively static over the last number of years, at close to a 50/50 split. 15 Irish Bankers Federation. IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile (Quarterly) 2
The buy-to-let sector has declined recently and this contraction looks set to continue as rents are falling and vacancy rates increasing. 16 Over the past 6 years there has been a continual rise in the number of credit cards in circulation. From 2003 to 2008 there was an increase of 393,000 in the number of credit cards in circulation, which equates to a rise of 21.6 percent. The quantity of credit cards in circulation accelerated since 2006, increasing by 11.6 percent in 3 years. 16 Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin: Statistical Appendix (Adjusted Base Year 2003). The Data were only available in their current format since 2003. 3
17 Millions of Euro Credit card debt increased rapidly through the early part of the decade as shown above. There was an increase of 30.6 percent from 2005 to 2008, approximately 10 percent per year. The level of indebtedness rose by a record level of 13.2 percent from 2006 to 2007. The increase in credit card debt correlates with the increase in the number of credit cards on issue, as shown in the previous graph. The rate of increase has slowed dramatically, however, in the past year as is shown on the next chart. 17 Central Bank Annual Statistical Bulletin. The graph shows the level of credit card debt outstanding on personal credit cards. The available data begins in the month of May 2004. The rest of the years are full 12 month periods. 4
18 The level of credit card debt outstanding on personal credit cards increased steadily from January 2006 to the end of 2008. 19 The spike that occurs each December corresponds to the Christmas season. However, the level of credit card indebtedness in December 2008 rose by only 1.6 percent which was indicative of a slowdown compared to previous years. This slowdown intensified in 2009 which has seen a decline in the level of debt outstanding on personal credit cards. In fact, payments on credit cards exceeded indebtedness in every month of 2009 to date with a net reduction in indebtedness of 23 million in May. April saw a small increase of 1.8 percent in the level of credit card debt but this may reflect an increase in the interest rate charged on credit cards rather than an increase in spending. The rate of increase on an annual basis was 0.1 percent to the end of May which is the lowest rate of increase in outstanding debt since 2002. 18 Central Bank Quarterly Statistical Appendix. The graph maps the level of credit card debt outstanding on personal credit cards. 19 Central bank of Ireland, Monthly Statistics. 5
Retail Sales
INTRODUCTION The Retail Sales Index (RSI) is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers and is based on a sampling of retail and wholesale stores. The RSI includes a breakdown for a number of sectors including the motor industry, department stores, food and beverages, the bar trade, and other large categories. This section details changes in retail sales over two specific time periods; the 2000 to 2008 period and the January 2006 to 2009 period. RECENT TRENDS: Retail sales value, excluding the motor trade, decreased by 14.1% for the year ending May 2009. This is a significant decrease even taking into account seasonal patterns. All sectors contributed to this decrease. Sales volume for the motor trade declined by 60% for the year ending May 2009. April and May of 2009 also marked the first time that second hand cars out sold new cars. Some of the hardest hit sectors in value terms have been: the motor trade down 42.5 percent for the year to the end of May; household equipment down 27 percent, clothing and footwear down 26.2 percent, department Stores down 17.6 percent, fuel down 21.5 percent, and newspapers/stationery down 14.3 percent. Not surprisingly, perhaps, food has held up best, down just 4.6 percent in volume and 6.5 percent in value. Bar sales have also held up better than might be expected with a decline of 11.4 percent in volume and 9.8 percent in value. 6
Retail Sales Index 20 Retail sales in Ireland grew strongly during the period from 2000 to 2007, with a 52 percent increase in value and a 32 percent increase in volume. The exceptional growth in 2006 (7.5% in value and 6.2% in volume) and 2007 (7% in value and 5.2% in volume) was probably influenced by the maturing of the SSIA savings scheme which gave consumers a one-off increase in disposable income. 2008 saw a moderate decline in volume of 4.7 percent, while value remained comparatively stable. 20 All Businesses Excluding Motor Trade 2000-2008, Retail Sales Index Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to value of sales. 7
Retail Sales Index 21 There has been an unprecedented level of decline in retail sales in the past year. The volume of retail sales decreased by 15.4% in May 2009 compared to May 2008. There was a monthly decrease of 1.2%. Excluding the motor trade, the volume of retail sales decreased by 9.2% in May 2009 compared to May 2008 and the monthly change was -1.3%. The value of retail sales decreased by 19.4% in May 2009 compared to May 2008 and decreased by 1.4% in the month. If Motor Trades are excluded, the annual decrease was 14.1% and the monthly change was -1.6%. All sectors contributed to the decline with the most significant being: Motor Trades down 39.8% (-42.5% value) Household Equipment down 22.0% (-27.5% value) Clothing, Footwear & Textiles down 17.1% (-26.2% value) Bars down 11.4% (-9.8% value) Fuel down 11.2% (-21.5% value) 21 All Businesses Excluding Motor Trade 2006-2009, Retail Sales Index Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to value of sales. 8
Sales of Private Cars 22 Car sales are regarded as a leading indicator of activity in the wider consumer market. In Ireland, the new Millennium was marked by a massive peak in new car sales, reaching almost 250,000 in the year 2000. This was followed by a dip of 37 percent in the 2000 to 2003 period, but growth resumed from 2003 onwards, reaching another peak in 2007. This may have been influenced by the fact that the SSIA savings scheme reached maturity in late 2006 and 2007 releasing cash which could be used for car purchases among other things. The second hand car market also grew strongly over this time period, with sales increasing from 24,000 in 2000 to 60,000 in 2008, nearly a threefold increase. Unfortunately, this rapid growth trend reversed dramatically in 2008 and sales have remained at a very depressed level this year, as the next chart shows. 22 Private Licensed Vehicles 2000-2008, National Accounts, www.cso.ie 9
Sales of Private Cars 23 Sales of new private cars were 4,833 in June, a 34.4% decrease from June 2008. Sales of new cars have fallen 60% over the twelve month period ending in May 2009. This drastic decrease follows on from a drop of 40% over the May 2007 to 2008 period. 42,365 new cars were sold from January to June 2009 compared to 114,569 in the same period in 2008 (a drop of 63 percent) and 138,874 in 2007. Second hand car sales have remained more or less constant over this time, with 30,455 sold in the first half of this year, 30,313 in the first half of 2008 and 30,301 in 2007. The months of April and May marked one of the first times ever that sales of second hand cars exceeded that of new cars. However, this trend did not last into the month of June where sales of new private cars were marginally higher than that of second hand cars. Most industry estimates predict total sales for this year will reach just 57,000 new cars, down from 151,607 in 2008. The most optimistic estimates suggest that 2010 will show just a slight increase on this year 24. 23 Private Licensed Vehicles 2006-2009, National Accounts, www.cso.ie 24 Motors section, Irish Times, July 22, 2009. 0
Retail Sales Index Food 25 It is often said that food sales are relatively inelastic because they are a necessity. However, there was an increase of 69 percent in the value of sales and 35 percent in volume over the 2000 to 2008 period in Ireland. This may be attributed to population growth, buoyant tourism, and to consumers trading up to more expensive assortments of goods due to strong incomes. 25 Food 2000-2008, Retail Sales Index Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to volume of sales. 1
Retail Sales Index Food 26 Food sales have been affected less severely than most other retail categories. The value of food sales has decreased by 6.5 percent and the volume by 4.6 percent for the year to the end of May 2009. This trend reversed from March to April of this year when the value of food sales actually increased by 9 percent. However, sales fell again in May by 7.5 percent, more or less wiping out the previous gain. The volume of food sales followed a similar trend increasing 9.5 percent from March to April and falling 7.2 percent from April to May. This decline is even more marked when compared to the same month last year. Sales value in May 2009 was down by 29.75 percent and sales volume by 20.1 percent compared to May 2008. Some of this decline may be attributed to falling prices. A recent report has indicated that there has been nearly a one percent monthly drop in food prices 27, which has resulted in 3.3 percent annual food deflation. This trend is compounded by the rise in cross border trading. 26 Food 2006-2009, Retail Sales Index Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to value of sales. 27 http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0710/1224250388402.html 2
Retail Sales Index Bars 28 The volume of bar sales decreased by 16 percent over the period from 2000 to 2008, or an average of 2 percent per year, influenced by factors such as the smoking ban and the introduction of random breathalysers. However, the value of bar sales actually increased by 12 percent over the same period due to increases in unit prices and taxes. This trend also reflects the changing consumption patterns of consumers who are opting to buy from the off-trade and drink at home. 28 Bars 2000-2008, Retail Sales Index Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to value of sales. All figures relate to on-trade sales. 3
Retail sales Index Bars 29 On-trade drink sales have continued to decline in 2009 but at a decreasing rate. The value and volume of bar sales have decreased from March to May 2009, both down by 2.5 percent. Value sales are down by 9.8 percent for the year ending May 2009 and volume sales by 11.4 percent. 29 Bars 2006-2009, Retail Sales Index Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie All figures relate to on-trade sales. 4
Retail Sales Index Department Stores 30 In line with general retail trends, sales through department stores increased steadily over the period from 2000 to 2007, with a total growth of 42 percent in volume and 49 percent in value. This trend was interrupted in the year 2008 which saw a marginal decrease in sales, with a reduction of 3.3 percent in volume and 3.5 percent in value. That downward trend has continued into 2009 as the next chart shows. 30 Department Stores 2000-2008, Retail Sales Index, Value and Volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to value of sales. 5
Retail Sales Department Stores 31 Department stores have seen a decrease in sales value of 17.6 percent and sales volume of 9.3 percent for the year to the end of May 2009. Cross-border shopping has been blamed for some of the loss. Retail Ireland estimates that cross-border shopping trips currently take 2-3% of total consumer spending north of the border. 31 Department Stores 2006-2009, Retail Sales Index Value and volume Unadjusted (Base 2005=100), www.cso.ie Visible data labels refer to value of sales. 6
The Consumer Market Monitor is published by: The Marketing Institute of Ireland The Marketing Institute of Ireland is the professional body for marketing people throughout Ireland, offering membership, qualifications and training. Established back in 1962, we are today based in our own full facilities headquarters in Dublin, with a network of over 3,000 members all over the country, drawn from all business sectors, and reaching from young marketing graduates up to business leaders at executive level. The Marketing Institute of Ireland Marketing House South County Business Park Leopardstown Dublin 18 Ireland info@mii.ie www.mii.ie Contact: Niamh Walsh Email: niamh.walsh@mii.ie UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School The UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School is Ireland s leading business school and research centre offering a wide range of postgraduate business programmes that equip students to become the business leaders of the future. The UCD Michael Smurift Graduate Business School are one of just 25 schools world wide to hold triple accreditation from the US, Europe and the UK accrediting bodies. UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School University College Dublin Carysfort Avenue Blackrock Co. Dublin Ireland info@smurfitschool.ie www.smurfitschool.ie Contact: Professor Mary Lambkin Email: mary.lambkin@ucd.ie UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School Scoil Chéimithe Ghnó Michael Smurfit UCD