USDbn MENA Outlook As the US Federal Reserve gradually moves towards tightening monetary policy, concerns are once again growing about the near-term outlook for a host of emerging market (EM) economies. Back in May 213 when the Fed initially mentioned the possibility of tapering its monthly asset purchases, many EM currencies experienced rapid sell-offs as a result of large-scale capital outflows. With QE3 likely to end in October, and the Fed set to raise interest rates thereafter, risks of EMs coming under renewed pressure will only intensify over the coming months. Although the timing of official rate hikes in the US is disputed, the direction is not, with recent data and the latest FOMC meeting in September merely reinforcing our view that monetary policy is set to be tightened around the start of Q2. Economics 22 September 214 Several EMs have already started to feel the impact of rising yields in the US, with the Brazilian real and Turkey lira having weakened roughly 6.5% and 4.5% respectively since the start of H214 (chart 3). A recent report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) highlights how portfolio investments in emerging markets across the globe dropped sharply in August, with only USD9bn in inflows in the month, compared to an average of USD38bn per month in May-July. Similar to mid-213, this time around the markets most at risk as a result of Fed tightening are those running duel current and fiscal account deficits. Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey (i.e. the fragile five ) have garnered the most attention, and are vulnerable on a number of fronts. Their reliance on foreign capital to finance domestic demand leaves their external positions exposed to a tightening in US monetary policy. This is particularly the case if such financing has been in the form of short-term portfolio flows, or if foreign investors account for a large share of their local sovereign debt markets. Jean-Paul Pigat Economist +971 4 23 787 jeanp@emiratesnbd.com Across the Middle East and North Africa, the economies of Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon all possess twin fiscal and current account deficits, which theoretically also makes them vulnerable to capital outflows amidst tightening monetary policy in the developed world. Using the IIF s Heat Map of Selected Vulnerability Indicators in Emerging Economies as a template, we have attempted to highlight the main economic weak points for these MENA markets heading into 215 (see Heat Map on page 5). In addition to fiscal and current account deficits, we have looked at debt levels, reserve ratios, real effective exchange rates, forms of external financing, and credit growth. Total Non-Resident Flows 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Source: IIF, Emirates NBD Research Africa & Middle East Emerging Europe Latin America Emerging Asia Total
Economic Vulnerabilities As the Heat Map highlights, there are clearly some common weaknesses amongst this group of economies. At first glance, the Policy Vulnerabilities components stands out, and is broadly reflective of the unsustainable increases in public spending in recent years. Indeed, not a single government amongst MENA s net oil importers is set to run a budget deficit below 5% of GDP in 215, with Egypt s fiscal shortfall likely to remain in the doubledigits. This has obviously led to an across-the-board rise in general government debt levels, with the lowest public debt burden still sitting at over 5% of GDP (Tunisia), and rising as high as 99% (Jordan) and 15% (Lebanon). The inability to control government spending has negative repercussions for the economic outlook, particularly through the ongoing crowding out of private sector credit growth (chart 1). In the case of Egypt, public sector credit growth came in at 29.% y/y in June, compared to private credit growth of only 7.4%. This expansion in government lending has pushed total credit growth in the economy to over 5% since July 212, which is double the rate of nominal GDP growth of 25%. The other main common vulnerability stems from gaping current account deficits, with Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon all possessing shortfalls over 6% of GDP. In part, this is reflective of structural goods trade deficits, which are largely a product of elevated energy import requirements. In addition, most of these economies have also seen sharp drops in tourism revenues, which have put pressure on their services trade balances. A key question for the region s balance of payments position heading into 215 is to what extent global energy prices are set to continue trending lower. If theory holds, and the upcoming period of sustained dollar strength that we are projecting also results in a corresponding downtrend in oil prices (chart 1), MENA s energy importers should also see lower import bills and hence smaller current account deficits. That said, the relationship between oil prices and balance of payments stability in MENA is more nuanced than it may seem. Indeed, despite being net oil importers, several economies in the region (particularly Lebanon) can actually benefit from higher global energy prices through increased deposit inflows, remittances and investment from the GCC. Relatively Insulated from Market Turmoil These weaknesses aside, we are not overly concerned about the impact that rising yields in the developed world will have on MENA s oil importers in 215. In the first instance, those economies that have been worst hit in recent taper tantrum episodes were also those that benefitted the most from the global hunt for yield, which resulted in large-scale capital inflows into emerging markets. The North Africa and the Levant regions were not major beneficiaries of such inflows, as political instability since 211 has largely kept foreign portfolio investors on the sidelines. In Egypt, which has the most developed local debt market, foreign ownership of outstanding treasury bills stood at less than.5% in May 214, compared to 21.% in December 21 (chart 4). Foreign portfolio investment has never been a major source of external financing for MENA s oil importers, and tends to account for only a fraction of financial account inflows. Rather, these economies have relied to a larger extent on and other investment, which are more stable forms of financing compared to portfolio flows. Indeed, in the first quarter of 214, other investment accounted for the largest share of external financing in Morocco (chart 6), Jordan (chart 7) and Tunisia (chart 8), while in Egypt hit its highest level since Q2 212 (chart 5). As the bulk of other investment likely reflects the use of IMF loans it is clear that these economies are not relying on international debt markets to the same extent as other EMs. Even should external financing conditions deteriorate more than expected, healthy reserve coverage ratios (RCR) FX reserves divided by current account deficits plus short-term external debt should prove to be a sufficient buffer against temporary market volatility. Following several years of decline beginning in 211, central banks across the region have recently been rebuilding their stocks of FX reserves, with Morocco and Jordan now possessing the equivalent of roughly five and 1 months worth of import cover respectively (chart 9). Although Egypt s FX reserves continue to hover around three months of goods imports, the economy s low levels of external debt (equivalent to only 16% of GDP), helps to bolster its RCR. Implications for FX For the region s straight dollar pegs (Jordan and Lebanon), we do not see any change to exchange rate policy through the end of 215. While we cannot rule out renewed pressure on FX reserves, both economies now possess a sufficient financial arsenal to withstand market turbulence, with Lebanon possessing over 2 months of import cover. In Tunisia, the central bank s decision to move to a more marketdriven exchange rate should see the dinar weaken further over the coming months. The policy to allow for greater depreciation appears to be driven by the desire to help stimulate an export-led recovery, and rebuild FX reserves. As the Heat Map shows, the economy is amongst the most vulnerable in the region, with particular weaknesses in current and fiscal account balances. We have an end-215 forecast of TND1.9/USD against a current spot rate of TND1.7837/USD. We are also projecting further losses for the Egyptian pound, with our end of FY214/15 (i.e. July 215) forecast remaining at EGP 7.25/USD. A growing concern heading into next year is the extent of real exchange rate appreciation, as authorities continue to hold to their de facto peg, even in the face of rapidly rising inflation (11.5% y/y in August). Page 2
USDmn USDmn % of total 128 118 18 98 88 USD & Oil 78 Brent Crude (lhs) DXY (inverted) 68 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Chart # 1 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.8 US 1-year Yield Chart #2 Bernanke mentions possibiility of 'tapering' 1.3 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 12 11 1 9 8 Emerging Market FX ZAR TRY (rhs) 7 Bernanke mentions possibility of 'tapering' 6 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Chart #3 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 Foreigners Holdings of Egyptian T-Bills 25 2 15 1 5 Jan-1 Sep-1 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Chart #4 Egypt Financial Account 8 6 Morocco Financial Account 5 4 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Q18 Q19 Q11 Q111 Q112 Q113 Q114 Chart #5 3 2 1-1 -2 Q18 Q19 Q11 Q111 Q112 Q113 Q114 Chart #6 Page 3
TND/USD EGP/USD Months of Imports USDmn USDmn Jordan Financial Account 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Q18 Q19 Q11 Q111 Q112 Q113 Q114 Chart #7 Tunisia Financial Account 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Q28 Q29 Q21 Q211 Q212 Q213 Chart #8 FX Reserves 2 Credit Growth by Sector 5 Egypt Public (lhs) Egypt Private (lhs) Jordan Public Jordan Private 4 1 8 15 1 5 3 2 1 6 4 2 Egypt Tunisia Morocco Jordan Lebanon Chart #9-1 Jan-1 Sep-1 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Chart #1-2 Tunisian Dinar Egyptian Pound 1.8 1.7 7.1 6.9 1.6 6.7 6.5 1.5 6.3 1.4 6.1 5.9 1.3 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Chart #11 5.7 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Chart #12 Page 4
Heat Map of Selected Vulnerability Indicators - IIF Source: IIF, Emirates NBD Research Page 5
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