NH Korindo Research NH 해외주식 인도네시아 Weekly Brief (September 17 21) Summary: JCI notched on a high note last week after it moved at lagging pace in the early week. Last week s last two trading days, JCI posted rally. From the global outlook, the positive sentiment stems from the subdued jitters of the U.S. and China trade war are the main driver of JCI s rally. The U.S. proposed trade talks to China s authorities after the prior weeks escalating trade war tension. Investors keep their wary eyes on Indonesia s trade balance of August this week. Investors estimate that August s deficit is unlikely as wide as July s deficit. On the other side, the downtrend dollar starts to have its impacts on rupiah. The rupiah is likely appreciated at 14.700 per the U.S. dollar. We recommend BBCA because of its robust CASA fund directly impacting on the growth in net interest income. Besides, PGAS backed by the consistent improvement in performance is another top pick. JCI - one month JCI - one year 1
Last Week s Recap Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) : 5,931.28 (+1.36%) Foreign Investor : net sell of IDR748 billion (Vs previous week s net sell of IDR2.86 trillion) USDIDR : 14,807 (-0.09%) 10-year Government Bond Yield : 8.413% (-4.5 bps) Growth of 2.9% y-y in July s Retail Sales Bank Indonesia (BI) posted the growth of 2.9% y-y in July s retail sales higher than June s retail sales of 2.3% y-y and dramatically towering retail sales of -3.3% y-y in July 2017. According to BI. The growth in July s retail sales was attributable to the high demand for retail in the new academic year and the distribution of 13 th salaries to civil servants and retirees. Indeed, the growth was mainly driven by the buoyant performance marked by apparel and automotive fuel commodities. On the other side, July s retail sales were slightly lower than the growth of 3.4% estimated by BI. Subdued Trade War Tension between the U.S. and China The U.S. government proposes a new round of trade talks with China. The trade talks were underlined by China s authorities seeking permission from the World Trade Organization (WTO) to impose sanctions on the U.S. The sanctions were proposed after President Trump stated to impose another tariff of USD267 billion on Chinese goods. Global Equity Market Sector Index Source: Bloomberg, NH Korindo Research Source: Bloomberg, NH Korindo Research 2
This Week s Outlook August s Trade Balance On Monday, 09/17/2018, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) releases August s trade balance. Indonesia posted July s trade deficit of USD2.03 billion consisting of non-oil and gas deficit and oil and gas deficit amounting to USD842 million and USD1.2 billion, respectively. Furthermore, exports only grew by 19.33%, but imports soared by 31.56%. A steep surge in imports was driven by the jump of 60.75% in consumption imports, the hike of 30.07% in raw materials imports, and the growth of 24.81% in capital goods imports. Overseeing the government s concerted commitments to curbing imports, we estimate that August s trade deficit likely whittles away. The commitments are embodied in the enactment of B20 mandatory reducing crude imports and the hike in imports income tax (PPh 22) imposed on consumption goods. Trend of Dollar Depreciation Dollar was depreciated in last week. The depreciation was triggered by the U.S. inflation of 0.2% m-m lower than the inflation of 0.33% estimated by investors. We oversee that in this week investors likely keep their wary eyes on the agenda for FOMC meeting to be held from 25 th to 26 th September 2018. Although the Fed plans to hike its benchmark rate for the third times in September, it is estimated that the Fed will not re-hike its benchmark rate in December because the inflation figures defy investors expectancy. We also project that within this week rupiah is possible to strengthen after standing stably at the around 14,800 per U.S. dollar. Based on above sentiments, we estimate that JCI is likely capable of posting further rallies with the support range of 5871-6060. Trade Balance (USD bn) & Export-Import Growth (y-y) Dollar Index & USDIDR Source: Indonesia Statistics, NH Korindo Research Source: Bloomberg, NH Korindo Research 3
Bank Central Asia (BBCA Bank) Dec 2018 TP 27,650 Consensus Price 24,879 TP to Consensus Price +11.1% vs. Last Price +15.3% Last Price (IDR) 23,975 Price date as of Sept 14, 2018 52wk range (Hi/Lo) 25,475 / 18,825 Free Float (%) 43.1 Outstanding sh. (mn) 24,655 Market Cap (IDR bn) 591,720 Market Cap (USD mn) 40,008 Avg. Trd Vol 3M (mn) 15.61 Avg. Trd Val 3M (bn) 361.32 Foreign Ownership 27.1% Interest Income Breakdown: Loan 82.6% Non-Loan 17.4% 2Q18 Performance: Historically Highest Interest Income BBCA posted the interest income of IDR13.7 trillion (+2.5% y-y; +1.7% q-q) in 2Q18. The figures ceased away the quarter-based downturn trend looming since the 4Q17. While, it boasted its net interest income of IDR11.0 trillion: the historically highest level. Meanwhile, its net profit was IDR5.9 trillion (+6.6% y-y). Stable Credit Growth of Around 14% It posted the credit distribution of IDR502.2 trillion (+13.7% y-y). The average growth of 14% in the credit distribution was well maintained since the 1Q18. The corporate segment dominating around 39% of BBCA s total credit jumped by 19.1% y-y to IDR191.4 trillion. CASA Dominance BBCA s 2Q18 total deposit snapped higher by 7.6% y-y to hit IDR615.6 trillion. CASA was IDR481.2 trillion or 78.2% of the total deposit. The CASA ratio of 78.2% was the highest since the 3Q16. Albeit, the sluggish deposit in Indonesia banking outlook, it was robust enough to affirm its CASA growth of 11.3% and 12.7%, respectively in the 1Q18 and the 2Q18. On contrast to higher CASA, its 2Q18 time deposit was sluggish by 7.6%. Its CASA dominance was a logical takeaway for the outperformance of its net interest income. It jostled for higher growth of 7.0% and 6.7% in the 1Q18 and 2Q18 s net interest income than the growth of 3.8% and 2.5% in the interest income. IDR bn FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E Int. Income 50,426 53,768 56,689 66,367 y-y 7.1% 6.6% 5.4% 17.1% Op. Rev 53,779 56,982 61,665 71,589 Net profit 20,606 23,310 25,312 29,874 EPS (IDR) 836 945 1,027 1,212 y-y 14.4% 13.1% 8.6% 18.0% NIM 6.6% 6.1% 6.0% 6.2% ROE 20.4% 19.1% 18.2% 18.9% P/E 18.5x 23.2x 23.4x 19.8x P/BV 3.4x 4.1x 4.0x 3.5x Share Price Performance CASA Ratio & Net Interest Income Growth (y-y) 4
Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS Gas Distribution) Dec 2018 TP 2,600 Consensus Price 2,457 TP to Consensus Price +5.8% vs. Last Price +28.1% Last Price (IDR) 2,030 Price date as of Sept 14, 2018 52wk range (Hi/Lo) 2,860 / 1,365 Free Float (%) 43.0 Outstanding sh. (mn) 24,242 Market Cap (IDR bn) 48,968 Market Cap (USD mn) 3,311 Avg. Trd Vol 3M (mn) 92.49 Avg. Trd Val 3M (bn) 169.95 Foreign Ownership 16.5% Sales Breakdown: Gas Distribution 78.1% Exploration Oil & Gas 18.9% Other 3.0% IDR bn FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E Net Rev. 2,935 2,970 3,405 3,931 y-y -4.4% 1.2% 14.7% 15.4% EBITDA 548 515 780 465 Net profit 359 145 352 423 EPS (IDR) 197 82 206 247 y-y -35.2% -58.4% 151.7% 19.8% NPM 12.2% 4.9% 10.3% 10.8% ROE 11.6% 4.6% 10.6% 11.7% P/E 13.7x 21.4x 9.9x 8.2x P/BV 1.6x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x 2Q18: Growth of 148% y-y in Net Profit PGAS posted the growth of 3% q-q or 24% y-y to USD825 million in the 2Q18 s revenue. On the cumulative basis, the 1H18 s revenue grew by 14.9% y-y to USD1.62 billion. Meanwhile, the 2Q18 s net profit was at USD65 million edging down by 18% q-q or soaring by 148% y-y; net profit margin was at 7.9% (vs. 10.2% in the 1Q18, and -4.1% in the 2Q17). 2Q18 Gas Distribution: Volume +12% y-y, ASP -3.4% y-y The increment in volume was boosted by the growing number of customers from the power plant and non-power plant industries to hit the figures of 2,245 customers (vs. 1,659 customers in the 2Q17) or surging by 35.3% y-y. The sales volume contributed by the two segments climbed to 99.5% (vs. 97.1% in the 2Q17). The average selling price (ASP) was USD8.33/mmbtu (vs. USD8.62/mmbtu in 2Q17) declining by 3.4% y-y. We estimate that PGAS was capable of performing cost efficiency amid the government s laws regulating gas selling price lower than USD6/mmbtu. Besides, the efficiency likely maintains PGAS s gross margin above 30%. Impacts of Pertagas Acquisition on PGAS s Debt PGAS took over Pertagas with the acquisition to amount IDR16.6 trillion. 50% of the acquisition fund derived from the internal cash, while the remaining stemmed from long-term debt. After the acquisition, the percentage of long-term debt is projected to contribute by 16.8% to PGAS s total debt. Meanwhile, the debt to equity ratio (DER) still reasonably settles at 1,0x (the prior to acquisition figures of vs. 0.7x). Share Price Performance Gas Distribution Volume & ASP 1Q16-4Q18E 5
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange Head Office : Wisma Korindo 7 th Floor Jl. M.T. Haryono Kav. 62 Pancoran, Jakarta 12780 Indonesia Telp : +62 21 7976202 Fax : +62 21 7976206 Branch Office BSD: ITC BSD Blok R No.48 Jl. Pahlawan Seribu Serpong Tangerang Selatan 15322 Indonesia Telp : +62 21 5316 2049 Fax : +62 21 5316 1687 Branch Office Solo : Jl. Ronggowarsito No. 8 Kota Surakarta Jawa Tengah 57111 Indonesia Telp : +62 271 664763 Fax : +62 271 661623 DISCLAIMER This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entities of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information hereof is obtained from reliable sources, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, and agents are held harmless form any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents are liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy contained herein. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia