Key lessons from South Africa s Renewable Energy IPP Programme Management Program in Infrastructure Reform and Regulation University of Cape Town
Competitive tenders for RE IPPs 2011 DoE issued RfP for 3625MW of renewable power Procurement caps for individual technologies Price caps for each technology Standard 20 yr, local denominated PPAs + IA + DA Up to 5 tender rounds originally envisaged Bids due 3 months after RfP Financial close 6 months after preferred bidder status CoD required within 18 months of financial close
Evaluation process Qualification Criteria Structure of project Legal Land Environment Financial Technical Economic development Bid guarantee Evaluation Criteria Price 70% Economic 30% Development Job creation Local content Ownership Management control Preferential procurement Enterprise development Socio-economic development
Round 1 outcomes Tendered 3625 MW 53 bids received 2128 MW 28 qualified 1416 MW Prices marginally below tender caps Financial close and contract signing within 15 months of RfP Total investment ca. US$6 billion Mostly by local banks Real returns high
Round 2 outcomes Tendered 1275 MW 79 bids 3255 MW 51 qualified 19 preferred 1045 MW Prices drop Local content increases PV: 28.5 to 47.5% Wind: 21.7 to 36.7% CSP: 21.0 to 36.5% All have reached financial close Total investment US$3.5 billion
Round 3 outcomes Tendered 1473 MW 93 bids 6023 MW 74 qualified 17 preferred 1456 MW Prices drop further Local content increases PV: 28.5 to 53.8% Wind: 21.7 to 46.9% CSP: 21.0 to 44.3% Total investment US$3.4 billion
Round 4 outcomes 77 qualified bids 26 preferred 2205 MW Prices drop further Total investment US$3.85 billion Prices now amongst cheapest in the world Cheapest wind 4.7c/kWh Solar PV 6.6c/kWh
Overall REIPPP outcomes Private investment +- US$19 bn 92 projects 6327 MW..since 2011!
REIPPP average prices ZAR c/kwh 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Onshore wind Solar PV
Success factors / lesson Enabling policy and regulatory framework Focused team fully authorised to drive the procurement a programme champion Adequate resources for programme conception and design and hiring of experienced transaction advisers International benchmarking Interaction with private sector to test bankability
Success factors / lessons Procurement design Competitive tender (vs. REFIT & directly negotiated) Single stage vs. two-stage procurement Multiple bid rounds Single price bid (vs. descending clock auction) High standards in tender documentation and process Adjustments in subsequent tender rounds to increase competition and reduce transaction costs Requirement for bidders secure funding means banks undertake due diligence
Success factors / lessons Standard, non-negotiable PPAs, IAs, and DA The PPA backed by sovereign guarantee in the IA and supported by a Government Support Framework Agreement The IA not only provided government support, also imposed ED obligations The ED benefits have been significant
Success factors / lessons One per cent of project cost into RE fund to support subsequent procurement Local capital markets Programme transparent & fair Excellent communication with the private sector Strict security conditions for evaluations Independent review process for evaluations Programme credibility No delayed/ non-payments by Eskom to date However transmission constraints are a potential risk
Challenges / lessons Size and readiness of RE market initially overestimated and too much capacity tendered with insufficient competition in round 1 Size and complexity of programme stretched available advisory capacity to the limit May have been more prudent to start smaller and then gradually ramp up programme Economic development criteria are arguably resulting in higher prices than could have been achieved Need to demonstrate ED and SED benefits Could improve local content and employment criteria Need better links with transmission planning and investment Utility can frustrate transmission connection Institutionalizing procurement capacity
The Management Programme in Infrastructure Reform & Regulation (MIR) is an emerging centre of excellence and expertise in Africa. It is committed to enhancing knowledge and capacity to manage the reform and regulation of the electricity, gas, telecommunications, water and transport industries in support of sustainable development. Prof Anton Eberhard Research, training courses, consultancy University of Cape Town @Anton Eberhard