Paste cobrand logo here Generations Bobby Duffy Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King s College London Version 1: Public
Why Generations? An example welfare and politics Some issues/conclusions
1. Why this analysis? Limited work on generational differences in attitudes/values in the UK? Complex presentation, split into small cohorts, difficult to see patterns Contrast US Pew analysis much more intuitive (wish had spotted before started )
2. Our generational balance is changing fundamentally four roughly equal-sized and quite different generations... Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping 10 9 8 % Pre war generation Born pre-1945 7 6 5 4 3 1 % Baby boomers 1945-1965 % Generation X 1966-1979 1980-2000 % Generation Y 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Eurostat
3....a better future no longer seems so certain... To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life than your parents generation, or will it have been about the same? Slightly worse Much worse Don t know 14% 4% 18% 32% Much better Generations Better % Worse % About the same 29% 61% Slightly better Generation Y 42 29 Generation X 60 19 Baby Boomers 70 14 Pre-War 79 8 Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013 Source: Ipsos MOR/Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust
4. More high quality data series over long periods Looked across range of cross-sectional surveys (BSAS, Ipsos MORI, ESS) over time and analysed by simulated/synthetic cohorts of people: when born, not age groups 3 potential types of change Period effect: attitudes of population as whole change in a similar fashion over the same period of time Lifecycle effect: peoples attitudes change as they age i.e. attitudes can be shifted by certain stages in people s lives or life events Cohort effect: a cohort has different views and these stay different over time Not possible to entirely unpick but can get idea
An example: welfare and politics
Overall opinions have moved significantly against further redistribution... The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 7 6 % Agree total 5 55% 4 39% 3 22% 28% 1 % Disagree total 1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: British Social Attitudes
But it s how this changes within generations that s key - cohort and period effects are clear... The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes 7 6 42+ % Agree 5 4 66+ 3 1 1. Decline in support across board 2. But generations are different and stay different 3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Pre war (born before 1945) Baby Boomers (born 1945-65) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-) Source: British Social Attitudes
Changing generational pattern on views of unemployment benefits Benefits for unemployed people are too low and cause hardship 8 % Agree 7 6 5 4 3 1 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: British Social Attitudes
Overall measure of pride is starkest illustration of different perspectives... How much do you agree or disagree that the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements. 8 % Agree 7 6 5 4 3 1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Pre war (born before 1945) Baby Boomers (born 1945-65) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-) Source: British Social Attitudes
Massive shift in generational voting patterns... How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 4 % Conservative 35% 3 25% 15% 1 5% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
...and for Labour How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 6 % Labour 5 4 3 1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
Not quite Thatcher s Children How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 15% 1 5% General elections Generation Y 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
Who still believes in party politics anyway? Version 1 Public
Support for political parties is declining... Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? 7 6 % Yes 5 4 3 1 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: British Social Attitudes Version 1 Public
...held up by flat generational pattern Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? 7 % Yes 6 5 4 3 1 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: British Social Attitudes Version 1 Public
Is this a British disease? Version 1 Public
UK pattern very similar in ESS Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? UK 7 % Yes 6 5 4 3 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: European Social Survey Version 1 Public
Germany closest to UK among major countries Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? Germany 7 % Yes 6 5 4 3 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: European Social Survey Version 1 Public
Sweden very different Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? Sweden 9 % Yes 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: European Social Survey Version 1 Public
Irish brought together by rejection of all parties Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties? Ireland 8 % Yes 7 6 5 4 3 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: European Social Survey Version 1 Public
Time of austerity concs Increasing power in our data (thanks to NatCen, DWP and others for sharing) Looking back tells us a lot: if can identify type of change, much better understanding of likely future changes Counter the focus on new in surveys media interest difficult Simple presentation: learnt more about opinion than many models Start of a picture: test in much more targeted way
For more info see www.ipsos-mori-generations.com Paste cobrand logo here @BobbyIpsosMORI Version 1: Public Thank you Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com 020 7347 3267