LCP Annual Pensions Conference Tuesday 28 September 2010 Delivering pensions in a new era of austerity

LCP Annual Pensions Conference Tuesday 28 September 2010 Delivering pensions in a new era of austerity Lane Clark & Peacock LLP Trustee Consulting Investment Consulting Corporate Consulting Insurance Consulting Business Analytics www.lcp.uk.com

Bob Scott Chairman s welcome 2

Bill Galvin Acting Chief Executive of The Pensions Regulator Opening address 3

Richard Murphy Meeting the challenges

Agenda Managing the liabilities Devising viable recovery plans in difficult times Setting long-term strategies for delivering benefits 5

Managing liabilities now All options available Controlling the future Tax and auto-enrolment triggers for review Planning and communication are keys to success Capping off the past Closing out the risk 6

Managing liabilities now Controlling the future Address as part of future changes Capping off the past Cap the growth of the liabilities Simplify the benefit structures Closing out the risk 7

Pension increase exchange Member option to convert to a level pension Uplift now Fixed for lifetime Member option Benefit certainty Cost savings Increased PPF levy 8

Managing liabilities now Controlling the future Capping off the past Closing out the risk Buyouts and buy-ins (Enhanced) transfer values 9

Meeting the funding challenge Using the whole toolkit Longer recovery plans Back-end loaded Deficit Contingency on profitability Trigger-based payments Contingent assets Assets Parent company guarantees Anything else! 10

LCP Prudence Index update Benchmark your funding strategy Average scheme size 300m Allows for: Funding assumptions Asset allocation Employer covenant Scheme Risk Index against Covenant Risk Index Covenant scores have deteriorated since 2006 No obvious link between covenant strength and funding strategy Identify your position before deciding on your recovery plan 11

Fix it so it stays fixed Setting the objectives Deliver promised benefits Affordable and practical set up going forward Off the company balance sheet when possible Minimise costs and risks in the meantime Employer s and members interests no longer aligned 12

Case study: de-risk to wind-up Late 2006: started to switch assets Indicative buyout quotations showing opportunity Completed scheme wind-up 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Closed to new entrants Closed to future accrual Company decision in principle to de-risk over 10 years; deficit 100m Competitive buyout auction - locked in to deficit of 40m 13

Setting your strategic plan Asset strategy Manage risks Set triggers to lock in good performance as it happens Certainty on benefits Funding strategy Monitor and, when opportunities arise, take action 14

Conclusion Steps are there for you to manage your DB liabilities Be ready for tax and auto-enrolment changes Manage the existing liabilities Set your strategic plan Monitor, and grab opportunities 15

Q&A session 16

Jonathan Ruffer Chief Executive, Ruffer LLP A fund manager s view of the future 17

Q&A session 18

Gavin Orpin Investment for DB schemes Making your assets work harder for you

Agenda Protecting against high inflation/deflation Locking in good performance/managing the downside 21

Why is high inflation/deflation a worry for pension schemes? Inflation 10% pa for next 10 years Deflation 2% pa for next 10 years Equivalent to a cap of 8% pa 26,000 21,500 Pension cannot decrease 10,000 10,000 8,000 22

How can you protect against rising inflation? Index-linked gilts 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Real yield 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 23

How can you protect against rising inflation? Inflation swaps only 30% 25% Inflation 20% 15% 10% Inflation swaps currently 3.5% 5% 0% 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009-5% 24

How can you protect against deflation? Fixed interest gilts 18% 15% 12% Fixed interest gilts are likely to give poor returns in an inflationary environment Yield 9% 6% 3% 0% 1980 1989 1998 2007 25

Risks of buying inflation swaps only 26 TECHNICAL PROVISIONS RISE DUE TO FALLING INTEREST RATES INFLATION FALLS - LOSE MONEY ON HEDGE

What have we been advising clients to do? Use triggers to gradually increase inflation hedge if levels become more attractive Inflation level Inflation rate swap triggrs 4.00% 3.75% Trigger 1 3.50% Trigger 2 Trigger 3 3.25% Trigger 4 3.00% Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Source: Bloomberg Don t do too much inflation hedging by itself 27

Locking in good performance Out of equities 110% Trigger 8 Funding level 100% 90% 80% 70% Trigger 7 Trigger 6 Trigger 5 Trigger 4 Trigger 3 Trigger 2 Trigger 1 60% 50% Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 28

Locking in good performance Out of corporate bonds 2.80% Yield over gilts 2.40% 2.00% 1.60% 1.20% 0.80% 0.40% 0.00% Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 However, until triggers are hit no downside protection 29

Managing the downside Percentage allocation Diversify beyond equities and bonds Consider giving significant flexibility to fund managers Use in conjunction with triggers Source: WM 30

Advantages of manager discretion Static diversification failed in 2008 Faster reaction times to changing market conditions Focus on capital preservation If fall 20%, then need 25% return to get back to starting point! Delegate to professional fund managers But remember that they can get it wrong as well! Many of you already invest in this type of approach: Diversified growth funds 31

Risks Diversification of manager risk very important Manager A Manager Manager A B Manager C Over long term equities may still do better Keep core allocation in equities, say 50% of growth assets Consider triggers from equities to Diversified Growth Funds if equities perform well 32

A new investment idea Source: University of Groningen 33

But emerging market equities are volatile 1200% 2007-2008 Fallout from global credit crunch. Peak to trough = -55% Cumulative return 1000% 800% 600% 1994-1995 Mexican Peso crisis. Peak to trough = -34% 400% 1990-1991 Gulf War. Peak to trough = -34% 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and Russian default. Peak to trough = -59% 2000-2001 Argentinian and Turkish financial crises. Peak to trough = -50% 200% 0% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 MSCI World Index (GBP returns) MSCI Emerging Markets Index (GBP returns) Source: Bloomberg 34

Diversified Emerging Markets Funds How can we get access to emerging markets but with reduced short-term volatility? Switch between equities, bonds and currencies depending on economic outlook Be able to move out of emerging markets into cash if outlook is poor LCP is working with fund managers to develop appropriate pooled funds Watch this space! 35

Conclusion Inflation and deflation are large risks Currently finely balanced between the two Will the Bank of England lose control of inflation in next 10 years? Manage inflation risks explicitly But try to balance inflation AND deflation risk Use trigger points to capture outperformance Manage downside risk by diversifying and giving flexibility to fund managers 36

James Trask Investment for DC schemes Designing an appropriate default fund

The importance of the default DC now covers the majority of private sector employees Over 80% choose the default when one is offered Schemes must provide default option by 2012 to qualify as autoenrolment schemes Trustees and sponsors of DC schemes need to act 38

The Regulator s DC focus Objective to improve work-based pension schemes Lack of member understanding Poor administrative practices Poor investment practices Unduly high charges Poor decisions on retirement choices 39

The DC lottery Annual pension relative to 1990 retiree 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Typical Lifestyle option 100% Allocation of member's assets 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Years to retirement Global equities Index-linked gilts Cash 41

Trustees and sponsors objectives for a default fund? 42

Ways of reducing DC investment risk Low guaranteed return Balanced fund With-profits Decumulation phase Lifestyle Target date funds Diversify growth assets Hedge unrewarded risks Interest rates, inflation 43

A better default strategy 100% Allocation of member's assets 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Years to retirement Global equities Diversified Growth Corporate bonds Index-linked gilts Fixed interest gilts Cash 44

A more reliable outcome 9.0% 8.0% Current Proposed Proportion of outcomes 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Pension pa 45

Fewer shocks along the way 31 March 2009 benefit statement 100% global equities 50/50 equities/ diversified fund -37% -18% 46

Case study: Volkswagen UK 47

Conclusion As DB declines, spotlight falls on DC Majority choose the default investment option Applying DB investment techniques can reduce the risks Review your default design now 48

James Trask Investment for DC schemes Designing an appropriate default fund

To Do list Get staff to take pensions seriously Improve default fund Make statements useful Figure out auto-enrolment Sort tax changes

Stacy Bold Communicating with members

Agenda Employee perceptions Overcoming inertia Common member behaviour The future for communications 52

What do members expect? 53 Over 76% would like financial guidance from their employer on retirement Source: Scottish Widows 43% believe that where employers provide a pension scheme they should also provide financial education Source: Scottish Widows

2012 Auto-enrolment 54

Age old question How to make pensions more interesting!! Member joiner pack Simples! 55

Addressing all members The early years Mid career At retirement 56

Addressing all members The early years Mid career At retirement 57

Addressing all members The early years Mid career At retirement 58

Common behaviour Influencing decision making Anchoring Negativity bias Procrastination 59

Behavioural traits Anchoring Anchoring Rely too heavily or anchor on one trait or piece of information when making a decision The default fund is suitable for most members 60

Behavioural traits Anchoring Anchoring 61

Behavioural traits Negativity bias Negativity bias The tendency to pay more attention and give more weight to negative than positive experiences 1 year later 62

Behavioural traits Negativity bias Negativity bias 63

Behavioural traits Procrastination Procrastination The counterproductive deferment of actions or tasks to a later time Sex and the City generation Females age 25-45 Limited pension provision Waiting for Mr Big Almost as many women surveyed own 30 pairs of shoes, 26%, as have a personal pension, 31%. Source: Friends Provident 64

Behavioural traits Procrastination 65

Behavioural traits Procrastination Procrastination Targeted / segmented communications Create a brand 66

The future for communications Appealing to Generation Y 67

Conclusion Employees expectations are high Pension costs are set to rise Ensure benefits are valued and recognised Engage through communications 68

Stacy Bold Communicating with members

To Do list Get staff to take pensions seriously Improve default fund Make statements useful Figure out auto-enrolment Sort tax changes

Karen Goldschmidt & Mark Jackson Pensions strategy from April 2011

April 2009 Budget It is difficult to justify how a quarter of all the money the country spends on pensions tax relief goes to the top 1.5% of pension savers. So from April 2011, I will restrict pension tax relief for those with incomes over 150,000 so it is gradually tapered to the same 20% rate the majority receive. 72

The Emergency budget June 2010 Labour s approach has: unwelcome consequences for pension saving, bring significant complexity to the tax system, and damage to UK business and competitiveness. Any alternative must still yield 3.5bn in 2011/12 An annual allowance 30K - 45K might deliver yield 73

Agenda Latest developments in pensions tax Karen Goldschmidt Impact of the new tax on pension scheme design Mark Jackson 74

Karen Goldschmidt Latest developments in pensions tax

The changes from 2011: savings below the annual allowance Post April 2011: Employer contributions Corporation tax relief National Insurance free Employee contributions Pension account For savings below the AA 25% tax-free lump sum Pension, subject to income tax Full income tax relief Investment return mostly tax free 76

The changes from 2011: savings exceeding the annual allowance Employer contributions Corporation tax relief National Insurance free Benefit in kind income tax paid by employee Employee contributions Full No income tax relief tax relief Pension account Investment return mostly tax free 25% tax-free lump sum Pension, subject to income tax 77

The tax calculation: DC Basic (pensionable) salary 150,000 Employer contribution: 14%, so 21,000 pa 21,000 is less than 40,000 New tax: NIL Basic (pensionable) salary 160,000 Employer contribution: 30%, so 48,000 pa First 40,000: no new tax 8,000 balance: tax at 50% New tax: 4,000 The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 78

The tax calculation: DB A high earner in a 1/60ths scheme 160,000 x 24/60 = 64,000 pa +4% = 66,560 pa 168,000 x 25/60 = 70,000 pa 3,440 X 20 = 68,800 3,440 pa First 40,000 = No tax Excess 28,800 taxed at 50% = NEW TAX 14,400 The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 and a multiplier of 20 and an inflation offset 79

The tax calculation: DB A high earner in a 1/60ths scheme 160,000 x 24/60 = 64,000 pa +4% = 66,560 pa 171,000 x 25/60 = 71,250 pa 4,690 X 20 = 93,800 4,690 pa First 40,000 = No tax Excess 53,800 taxed at 50% = NEW TAX 26,900 The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 and a multiplier of 20 and an inflation offset 80

The tax calculation: DB Lower paid 40,000 x 24/60 = 16,000 pa +4% = 16,640 pa 42,000 x 25/60 = 17,500 pa 860 X 20 = 17,200 860 pa Below 40,000 NO NEW TAX The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 and a multiplier of 20 and an inflation offset 81

The tax calculation: DB Lower paid with a promotion 40,000 x 24/60 = 16,000 pa +4% = 16,640 pa 45,000 x 25/60 = 18,750 pa 2,110 X 20 = 42,200 2,110 pa Excess 2,200 taxed at 40% NEW TAX 880 The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 and a multiplier of 20 and an inflation offset 82

The tax calculation Ordinary early retirement maybe? 40,000 x 10/60 = 6,667 pa +4% = 6,933 pa 40,000 x 11/60 at age 55 = 7,333 pa 7,333 X 26-6,933 x 20 = 51,998 Excess 11,998 taxed at 40% NEW TAX 4,800 The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 and a multiplier of 20 and an inflation offset 83

The tax calculation Ill-health retirement maybe? 40,000 x 10/60 = 6,667 pa +4% = 6,933 pa 40,000 x 40/60 = 26,667 pa 19,734 X 20 = 394,680 19,734 pa Excess 354,680 taxed at 50% = NEW TAX 177,340 The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 and a multiplier of 20 and an inflation offset 84

Spikes : exemptions and other assistance Exemptions Death Serious (terminal) ill health Other help where schemes are not able to smooth away spikes there may be a role for the tax system to help 85

Possible trade-offs for higher annual allowance LTA tightened Down from 1.8m to? DB factor increased 2006 protections changed Relief restriction to 40% Basic (pensionable) salary 150,000 Employer contribution: 14% ( 21,000) 21,000 less than 40,000 New AA tax: NIL New relief restriction 2,100 (10% x 21,000) The above assumes an annual allowance of 40,000 86

Delivery and compliance 87

Mark Jackson Impact of the new tax on pension scheme design

April 2011 and beyond A new landscape for pension design 89

Case study: DC plan 6% Employer match 6% Employee match Annual Allowance 3% Employer core Issues Employer and employee contributions exceed annual allowance No limit on AVCs Bonus sacrifice facility Ill-health insurance = 5 x salary lump sum Solutions Option to take cash Communicate headroom Communicate headroom Spread lump sum over more than 1 year DC themes: - Relatively simple design changes - Communication exercise is main challenge - Smaller pensions: not just for high earners 90

Case study: DB plan Background and issues 20,000 Tax charge - 40k annual allowance 18,000 16,000 Tax charge 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000 225,000 Pensionable Salary (before increase) 91

Case study: DB plan Solutions Objective: No employee can have an increase in pension value above the Annual Allowance Why are we giving more than 40k in pension value to anyone? Solution: Limit to pensionable salary of 120,000 Cap increases in pensionable salary at CPI Deficit reduces from 100m to 70m DB themes: - Tax charge is a catalyst for wider liability management exercises - Employees who retain DB pensions are unlikely to be compensated for lower pensions 92

Short-term impact Scheme design changes Communication with employees/presentations/one-to-ones Consultation period for scheme amendments Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April 2011 Confirmation of Annual Allowance Draft Finance Bill 93

Mark Jackson Impact of the new tax on pension scheme design

To Do list Get staff to take pensions seriously Improve default fund Make statements useful Figure out auto-enrolment Sort tax changes

David Jones Looking to the future

Agenda Short term action plan Planning for auto-enrolment Where is this leading us all? 97

On your marks 98

What s coming up? Imminently clarity on tax regime from 2011/12 Autumn CPI / RPI implications Autumn avoid losing powers to make payments to employers Autumn/Spring action to mitigate PPF levy 5 April 2011 transitional tax regulations cease to apply 99

In the meantime DB schemes Reviewing future benefits Capping of the past De-risking exercises Funding negotiations Making assets work harder for you DC schemes Default investment strategy Governance structure Communications 100

2012 DC contractingout abolished tpr record keeping deadline GMP equalisation? State pension changes? Planning for updated IAS19 50% MNTs? Solvency II? Employer debt regulations? Compliance with auto-enrolment 101

Auto-enrolment Is this really going to happen? When do I need to start thinking about this? 102

Do you know when you will need to comply? Staging Staging date dependent on no. of employees October 2012 October 2013 October 2014 October 2015 October 2016 120,000 employees 400 employees 10 employees Phasing Required DC contribution rate (%QE) ER 1% Total 2% ER 2% ER 3% Total 5% Total 8% October 2012 October 2013 October 2014 October 2015 October 2016 October 2017 103

Auto-enrolment: action plan Understand starting point Agree strategy Implementation 104

Auto-enrolment: action plan Do existing schemes meet quality requirements? Understand starting point How many employees need to be auto-enrolled? Cost of using existing schemes? 105

Auto-enrolment: action plan Harmonise benefits across all employees? Agree strategy Cost of using new arrangements or NEST? Options to mitigate costs? 106

Auto-enrolment: action plan Implementation Administration and systems issues Consultation and communication 107

And beyond? There is almost universal acceptance that the combination of the present state pension system and the present voluntary system of private pension saving is not fit for purpose and will result in pension provision which is increasingly inadequate and unequal. Pensions Commission final report 108

The haves and the have nots Private sector Copper-bottomed DB pensions for the baby boomer generation Less generous DC schemes for most of the rest Public sector Around 5 million in DB schemes currently But at what cost and for how long? State benefits Protection from poverty only Increasing state pension age 109

Vision of 2046 Occupational and private savings too low to retire on State pension at poverty level from age 68 (or later) Compulsory retirement age abolished? Need higher retirement savings 110

How? Fairer risk sharing Flexibility Simplicity Political support and stability Tax incentives 111

The likely default? The Australian model Anticipate higher minimum contributions 112

Bob Scott Chairman s conclusion and questions 113

Scope This generic presentation should not be relied upon for detailed advice or taken as an authoritative statement of the law. If you would like any assistance or further information, please contact the partner who normally advises you. LCP is part of the Alexander Forbes Group, a leading independent provider of financial and risk services. Lane Clark & Peacock LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC301436. LCP is a registered trademark in the UK (Regd. TM No 2315442) and in the EU (Regd. TM No 002935583). All partners are members of Lane Clark & Peacock LLP. A list of members names is available for inspection at 30 Old Burlington Street, London, W1S 3NN, the firm s principal place of business and registered office. The firm is regulated by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in respect of a range of investment business activities. Locations in London, Winchester, Jersey, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Ireland. 1