Hospitality and entertainment business the key The Company s main revenue generators are its hospitality and entertainment businesses which contribute almost 95% of total revenues. The company has a total of 28 hotels and 5 parks and entertainment centers across Saudi Arabia and UAE. It is worth noting that the company owns and manages 13 restaurants, 7 of which are located in within the company s entertainment venues. Hospitality business the torch bearer of revenue growth Hospitality segment contributed 61% of the total revenue generated by the company. The company has established 28 hotels including furnished apartments and resorts with a total room capacity of 3,473 by end of 213 1. In addition, the company also oversees the management of one hotel in UAE. The company caters to the midscale segment of the sector. Some of the major brand names under which the company operates are Hilton, Holiday Inn, Golden Tulip, Tulip Inn and Novotel. The company manages its hotels under four different types of structures. (i) Hotels managed by the company according to franchise agreement,(ii) Hotels managed by international operators according to management agreement, (iii) Chain of local hotels managed by the company, (iv) hotels managed and operated by the company on behalf of other parties. For further details on the management agreements refer to Appendix Table 1. Occupancy rate a concern - The tourism industry in Saudi Arabia is limited to religious tourism and business travel, due to which overall occupancy is limited in other cities (except for Riyadh, Damamm, Makkah, Madina, Jeddah) resulting in lower occupancy rates. Riyadh and Damamm attract most of business travellers, whereas Makkah, Madina and Jeddah attract the religious tourists. The rest of the country, tourism activity is considerably low. The company is looking to open 3 new hotels by the end of 214 in the cities of Riyadh, Jeddah and Jizan. We believe for the company to maintain its growth cycle a concentrated effort is required to open hotels aimed at religious tourism, the cities of Makkah and Madina, so far the company has no presence in these cities. However it has strong presence in the city of Jeddah which is very near to Makkah. Refer to Appendix Graph 2 for futher details on hotels, number of rooms, and occupancy. JV with Rezidor, key growth driver Towards the end of 213 the company entered into a JV with Rezidor group with the aim to develop Radisson Blu and Park Inn brands in KSA. The JV is 6% owned by Rezidor and 4% by Al Hokair Group. Under the agreement, a number of company s hotels will be re-branded into the JV hotel (for a full list of hotels to be rebranded refer to the Appendix Table 3). In addition the JV is also expected to enter into an international management contract Recommendation 12-month price target; Current Price: Overweight SAR15 SAR68.75 Upside / (downside): 52.7% Price Chart 12 1 8 6 4 2 4218 4215 428 421 41994 41987 4198 41973 41966 41959 41952 41945 41938 41931 41924 41917 4191 4193 41896 41889 41882 41875 41868 41861 41854 41847 4184 41833 41826 41819 Key information TASI Al Hokair Reuters code: 182.SE Bloomberg code: AATD AB Country: KSA Sector: Hospitality Primary Listing: KSA exchange M-Cap: SAR3,822mn 52 Weeks H/L (SAR): 12.75/5.25 Abdulmohsen Al-Hokair Group for Tourism and Development Company was established for the purposes of set up, management, operation and maintenance of amusement parks, entertainment centers, health and tourist resorts, restaurants, coffee shops, relaxation centers, gardens, hotels, furnished apartments, commercial centers and training and educational centers. through which the JV will manage The Radisson Blu and Park Inn brands. We believe this will impact the company positively as with a stronger brand name, occupancy and revenue per room (Revpar) can be expected to improve. Entertainment business, rebranding to support growth - Entertainment business contributed approximately 35% to the top-line in 213. The company manages 43 locations in KSA and 7 locations in the UAE. The modus operandi for the business is to open locations in popular malls in the kingdom. The company in alliance with leading mall developers, such as Arabian Centers, Al Rashid Trading & Contracting Co, Kinan International Real Estate Development and Mohammad Al Habib Real Estate Co, is aggressively looking to expand its presence. The company has re-branded its entertainment sites to Sparkys. This will also help the company in streamlining its offerings which can result in improved customer loyalty. For details on customer visits to entertainment sites refer to appendix Graph 3. In addition to the indoor sites the company also has 6 outdoor parks. Financial growth - Based on our estimates, the company s revenue will increase at a CAGR of 11.2%, during 213-17; where the growth in revenues will be primarily driven by the hotels business which is expected to show a CAGR of 14.%, during the same period. We expect the company to peak in 215, since rooms addition during 214 will be fully operational during 215. In 214 and expected 873 room will added. Moreover, we expect stability in the gross and operating margins, as net income is expected to show a CAGR of 12.2%. 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 1 Refer to Appendix Graph 1 Senior Analyst Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 t.nazar@aljaziracapital.com.sa Analyst Sultan Al Kadi +966 11 2256374 s.alkadi@aljaziracapital.com.sa
Key financial indicators Company snapshot 212 213 214 215 216 217 Revenues 77.4 88.1 977.1 1153.8 1273.1 138.5 Growth (%) 7% 14% 11% 18% 1% 8% Net Income 178.8 195.7 221.4 262.7 283.7 31.5 Growth (%) 2% 9% 13% 19% 8% 9% EBITDA Margins 33% 3% 32% 31% 31% 32% EBIT Margins 2% 19% 21% 21% 21% 22% Net Profit Margins 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% PE (x) NA* NA* 15.2 14.5 13.5 12.3 PB (x) NA* NA* 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 Dividend Yield NA* NA* 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Source: AlJazira Capital, *Not available, for years 214 & onwards we used closing price of 18th Oct 214. Investment consideration By employing DCF valuation methodology, we arrived at a 12-month price target of SAR15/share for Al Hokair group. This indicates the stock, at a current market price of SAR68.75/share (as of 15 th ), is offering a potential upside of 52.7% and trading at prospective 215 PE and PBV of 14.4x and 2 8x, respectively. The company is expected to pay a dividend of SAR 2.5/share, depicting a dividend yield of 3.6%. We, therefore, initiate our coverage on Al Hokair group with an Overweight recommendation. Key risks to valuation: Concentration risk: Revenue sources are concentrated in Saudi Arabia and in specific hotels, where more than 95% of revenues are from operations in Saudi Arabia while a large percentage of hospitality sector revenue come from domestic hotels in Al Hokair s portfolio. The possibility of a domestic sector slowdown would have a meaningful impact on the company s cash flows. We do not believe the sector is currently under risk of a slowdown. However, the company is highly exposed to domestic industry risks. 2
Valuation Summary Our DCF based valuation methodology is based on 1-year explicit cash flows to reduce the sensitivity of our valuation to terminal value with the following key assumptions; Terminal growth rate is taken at 3.%. 5-year monthly sector raw beta of.798 (Bloomberg); in order to reduce the impact of volatility. Since the stock has not been listed for a reasonable period of time, therefore the company beta reading are skewed, for that matter we have considered the sector beta. Risk free rate is taken at 2.84%. The calculation of RFR is based on the summation of i) 1-year US government bond yield of 2.13%; and ii) country default spread (CDS) of.7% for Saudi Arabia. KSA total market risk premium is taken at 12.6% from Bloomberg. Hence, the equity risk premium is calculated at 9.78%. Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to calculate cost of equity at 1.7%. Cost of debt is taken at 4.1%. Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is calculated at 9.4%. DCF based valuation methodology All figures in SAR Mn, unless specified 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 Terminal Value FCF 278 215 241 274 315 329 358 383 391 536 8618 No of Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 Discounted FCF 265 188 193 2 211 21 2 195 182 228 367 Sum OF DFCF 5732 Net Debt -43 DCF 5775 Price Target 15 Source: Aljazira capital The table below highlights the sensitivity of Hokair Groups DCF based 12-month price target with different terminal growth & WACC. Sensitivity analysis Growth WACC 7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 1.4% 11.4% 1.% 12 12 88 78 69 2.% 135 112 95 83 73 3.% 158 126 15 9 78 4.% 193 147 118 98 84 5.% 258 18 137 111 92 Source: Aljazira capital 3
Appendix Graph 1:Hotel Rooms Hotel Rooms Avaliable 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 27 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 No. of available rooms Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research Table 1: Management Agreements 1. Hotels Managed by the Company according to franchise agreement: Ownership of the business, management control and day to day operations remain with the company in return for a franchise fee paid to the international hotel operator, and other fees against participation in marketing and in the booking system, and overall, they represent of 1-5% of room revenues. As of 31/12/213, 15 out of the 28 hotels are company managed according to this structure. These hotels represent 57.4% of total hotel revenues. 2. Hotels managed by international operators according to management agreement: The company rents and equips locations and hotels according to the specifications of an international hotel operator who manages the property and day-to-day operations. The company pays a basic management fee to the international hotel operator as well as an incentive based fee and complementary fees. These fees represent 5-11% of the gross operating profit. As of 31/12/213, 6 out of the 28 Hotels are managed by international hotel operators pursuant to this structure. These hotels represent 24.6% of total Hotel revenues. 3. Chain of local hotels managed by the company: The company manages and operates a number of hotels (including furnished apartments. As of 31/12/213, 7 of the 28 hotels are managed by the company under this structure. These hotels represent 14.7% of total hotel revenues. 4. Hotels managed and operated by the company on behalf of other parties: the company manages and operates the day-to-day operations of the hotel based on its expertise on behalf of other parties against 5% of the hotel s revenues and earnings. As of 31/12/213, the company oversees and manages one hotel under this structure: the Golden Tulip Suites Dubai in the UAE owned by Al Hokair Group Est. Source: Al Hokair Group prospectus 4
Graph 2: Hotel Rooms Revenue Constituents SAR 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 27 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 64% 62% 6% 58% 56% 54% 52% 5% Average Daily Rate (SAR) Room occupancy Rate Average Revenue Per Room (SAR) Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research Table 2: Company hotels 5 No Hotels Location Rooms Suites Agreement 1 Holiday Inn Al Qasr 16 43 A* 2 Golden Tulip Al Nasiriya 18 8 A* 3 Hilton Garden Inn Olaya 152 28 B** 4 Holiday Inn Olaya 257 41 B** 5 Al Andalusia 92 15 C*** 6 Al Souleimania Villas Riyadh - 3 C*** 7 Suite Novotel 6 55 A* 8 Yamama Resort (Chalets) - 31 C*** 9 MENA Riyadh 114 5 C*** 1 Al Takhassousi Apartments - 17 C*** TOTAL 1,15 318 11 Holiday Inn Al Salam 299 2 A* 12 Golden Tulip Jeddah 219 A* 13 Tulip Inn Regency(Furnished Apartments) - 36 A* Jeddah 14 Al Hamra Pullman 162 91 B** 15 Red Sea Palace 262 15 C*** TOTAL 942 162 16 Holiday Inn Khobar 97 9 A* 17 Holiday Inn Corniche 166 2 A* 18 Golden Tulip Khobar Al Khobar 74 32 A* 19 Half Moon Bay Holiday Inn Resort 6 41 A* TOTAL 397 12 2 Novotel Business Park 138 21 B** 21 Tulip Inn Dammam Dammam - 55 A* TOTAL 138 76 22 Hilton Double Tree Dhahran Dhahran 14 54 B** 23 Golden Tulip Al Jubail Al Jubail 65 B** 24 Tulip Inn Yanbu Yanbu 6 45 A* 25 Tulip Inn Taif Taif 68 16 A* 26 Qasr Al Baha Golden Tulip Hotel and Resort Baha 66 6 A* 27 Golden Tulip Hail Hail 5 31 A* 28 Haql Beach Resort (Sea Chalets) Haql 24 C*** 29 Golden Tulip Suites Dubai 3 6 D**** TOTAL Rooms and Suites KSA & UAE 284 989 Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, * A:Hotels Managed by the Company According to Franchise Agreements, ** B:Hotels Managed by International Operators According to a Management Agreement, *** C:Al Hokair Group s Local Brand Hotels and Furnished Apartments Managed by the Company, ****D: Hotels Managed by the Company on behalf of Other Parties
Table 3:Group s hotels anticipated to be re-branded into JV Hotels Hotels Approximate Conversion Date Golden Tulip Al Khobar Q4-214 Golden Tulip Al Nasiria Q4-214 Golden Tulip Al Jubail Q1-215 Mina Al Riyadh Q2-214 Red Sea Palace Jeddah During Q3-215 Golden Tulip Qasr Al Baha Hotel and Resort Q4-214 Tulip Inn Al Taif Q3-214 Tulip Inn Dammam Q2-214 Golden Tulip Hail Q1-215 Radisson Blu Jizan (under development) Q3-214 Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus Graph 3: Customer Visits to Entertainment sites 12 4. 1 35. 8 Million Visitors 6 3. SAR 4 25. 2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2. No. of visitors -LHS Average amount spent by each Visitor -RHS Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research 6
Financials 212 213 214 215 216 217 Income Statement in mn SAR REVENUES Hotels 483 553 65 79 876 935 Entertainment 273 31 39 343 375 422 Others 14 17 18 2 22 24 TOTAL REVENUES 77 88 977 1,154 1,273 1,381 % Growth 7% 14% 11% 18% 1% 8% DIRECT COSTS Hotels (297) (342) (398) (487) (539) (575) Entertainment (172) (26) (2) (222) (245) (274) Others (6) (6) (7) (8) (8) (9) TOTAL DIRECT COSTS (475) (554) (66) (717) (793) (858) GROSS PROFIT 295 326 372 437 48 523 EXPENSES Selling and marketing (3) (33) (37) (44) (49) (52) General and administrative (112) (123) (132) (149) (163) (173) TOTAL EXPENSES (142) (156) (17) (192) (211) (225) INCOME FROM MAIN OPERATIONS 153 169 22 245 269 297 Share in net results of associates 28 26 26 26 26 26 Financial charges (4) (9) (11) (13) (15) (17) Other income, net 7 12 9 1 1 1 INCOME FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS 183 198 226 268 289 316 INCOME BEFORE ZAKAT 183 198 226 268 289 316 Zakat (5) (3) (4) (5) (6) (6) NET INCOME FOR THE YEAR 179 196 221 263 284 31 % Growth 2% 9% 13% 19% 8% 9% Balance Sheet in mn SAR ASSETS CURRENT ASSETS Bank balances and cash 47 135 335 48 66 861 Accounts receivable 35 4 46 55 63 7 Prepayments and other current assets 5 18 74 9 19 125 Inventories 22 23 27 33 38 43 Amounts due from related parties 4 23 23 23 23 23 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 158 329 55 682 893 1,123 NON-CURRENT ASSETS Investments in associates 89 17 17 17 17 17 Projects under construction 15 79 29 49 59 65 Property and equipment 672 66 67 668 667 665 Goodwill 39 39 39 39 39 39 Other assets 27 - - - - - TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 843 886 845 864 873 876 TOTAL ASSETS 1,1 1,215 1,35 1,546 1,766 1,999 LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY LIABILITIES CURRENT LIABILITIES Accounts payable 62 47 53 59 64 68 Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 116 117 121 137 144 148 Bank borrowings and term loans 69 15 126 145 171 192 Current portion of obligations under 2.7.2.2.2.2.2 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 25 269 3 341 379 49 NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES Term loans 13 147 166 196 232 262 Employees terminal benefits 42 4 4 4 4 4 TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 173 187 27 237 273 33 TOTAL LIABILITIES 423 456 57 578 652 712 SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY Share capital 48 55 55 55 55 55 Statutory reserve 86 2 42 68 96 127 Retained earnings 85 12 182 281 399 541 Proposed Dividend - 69 69 69 69 69 TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 578 759 842 968 1,114 1,287 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 1,1 1,215 1,35 1,546 1,766 1,999 Cash Flow in mn SAR Net cash from operating activities 194 196 348 352 377 416 Net cash used in investing activities (13) (239) (7) (137) (136) (141) Cash flow from Financing Activity (26) 39 (77) (7) (61) (73) Changes in Cash 37 (3) 21 145 18 21 Opening Balance of Cash 1 47 135 335 48 66 Murabaha Deposit - 9 - - - - Closing Balance of Cash 47 135 335 48 66 861 Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research 7
Ratios Ratios 212 213 214 215 216 217 Liquidity Ratio Current Ratio(x).6 1.2 1.7 2. 2.4 2.7 Quick Ratio (x).5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 Efficency Ratios Receivables Days Turnover 16.4 16.7 17. 17.5 18. 18.5 Inventory Days Turnover 1.4 9.5 1. 1.5 11. 11.5 Payables Days Turnover 47.6 3.9 32. 3. 29.5 29. Profitability ROE 31% 26% 26% 27% 25% 24% ROIC 23% 19% 2% 2% 19% 18% ROA 18% 16% 16% 17% 16% 16% Margins Gross Margins 38% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% EBITDA Margins 33% 3% 32% 31% 31% 32% EBIT Margins 2% 19% 21% 21% 21% 22% Net Margins 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% Leveraging Ratios Debt to Equity 35% 33% 35% 35% 36% 35% Debt to Capital 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19% TIE (Time Interest Earned) 42. 21. 2.6 2.9 19.1 18.5 Valuations Dividend Yield NA* NA* 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Book Value Per Share (BVPS) 3. 24.6 22.1 24.5 28.1 32.1 Market Capitalization(in SAR Mn) NA* NA* 3355. 3822.5 3822.5 3822.5 Enterprise value (in SAR Mn) NA* NA* 3312.1 3683.8 3565.4 3415.8 PE (x) NA* NA* 15.2 14.5 13.5 12.3 PB (x) NA* NA* 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 EV/EBITDA (x) NA* NA* 1.6 1.2 9. 7.8 EPS (diluted) 3.3 3.6 4. 4.8 5.2 5.6 Source: Al Hokari Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research 8
RESEARCH DIVISION AGM - Head of Research Abdullah Alawi +966 11 225625 a.alawi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Analyst Sultan Al Kadi +966 11 2256374 s.alkadi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Senior Analyst Syed Taimure Akhtar +966 11 2256146 s.akhtar@aljaziracapital.com.sa Analyst Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 j.aljabran@aljaziracapital.com.sa Senior Analyst Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 t.nazar@aljaziracapital.com.sa BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION General manager - brokerage services and sales Ala a Al-Yousef +966 11 2256 a.yousef@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers Central Region Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 2256364 s.almutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM-Head of international and institutional brokerage Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 2256277 lalmutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 aalrahit@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC Brokerage Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani +966 12 66184 a.almisbahi@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage Samer Al- Joauni +966 1 225 6352 s.aljoauni@aljaziracapital.com.sa RESEARCH DIVISION AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. RATING TERMINOLOGY 1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Overweight will typically provide an upside potential of over 1% from the current price levels over next twelve months. 2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Underweight would typically decline by over 1% from the current price levels over next twelve months. 3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Neutral is expected to stagnate within +/- 1% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. 4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company. 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