Growth and Stagnation in the World Economy The Third World KLEMS Conference May 19-20, 2014 Hyunbae Chun (Sogang University) Hak K. Pyo (Seoul National University) Keun Hee Rhee (Korea Productivity Center)
Measuring Intangibles in Korea based on CHS definition Harmonized with Japanese & intan-invest datasets Detailed 27 industries & up to date (up to 2011) Perform growth accounting with intangibles by sector Market economy, manufacturing, and services 2
Korean Economy Rapid economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s Slowdown in growth after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 What are underlying changes for the recent decade Finding the role of intangibles and other components in the slowdown using growth accounting analysis at the sectoral level 3
Narrow definition: The National Accounts Software, mineral exploration Plus R&D and artistic originals (SNA 2008 SNA) Broad definition: Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel (CHS) Computerized Information (CI) Innovative Property (IP): Scientific & Non-scientific R&D Economic Competencies (EC): Brand equity and firmspecific resources 4
1981-2010 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Computerized information 1.2% 0.4% 1.2% 1.9% Innovative property 2.4% 1.5% 2.4% 3.3% Scientific R&D 1.8% 0.9% 1.7% 2.6% Non-scientific R&D 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% Economic competencies 1.2% 0.4% 1.2% 1.9% Brand equity 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% Firm-specific resources 1.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% Total 5.6% 3.5% 5.9% 7.4% 5
9% 8% 7% 6% 5% CI IP(Sci. R&D) IP(Non sci R&D) EC(Brand equity) EC(Firm spec. resources) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 6
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 7
Source: Corrado et al. (2013) 8
No Industry name CI IP EC 1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.06% 0.16% 0.15% 2 Mining and quarrying 0.03% 4.94% 0.16% 3 Food, beverages and tobacco 0.58% 2.09% 8.81% 4 Textiles and leather 0.77% 2.28% 4.55% 5 Wood, paper, and printing 0.28% 3.03% 2.12% 6 Petroleum, coal and chemicals 0.36% 5.49% 2.88% 7 Non-metallic mineral products except petroleum and coal 0.09% 2.41% 1.18% 8 Metal, Fabricated metal products 0.36% 1.78% 1.95% 9 Machinery equipment 0.96% 7.51% 5.86% 10 Electrical and electronic equipment 0.35% 19.12% 2.87% 11 Precision instruments 1.51% 19.84% 1.84% 12 Transport equipment 1.66% 9.78% 1.09% 13 Furniture and other manufacturing industries 0.87% 2.10% 1.46% 14 Electricity, gas and water supply 1.54% 1.59% 2.35% 15 Construction 0.86% 1.12% 1.59% 16 Wholesale and retail trade 2.79% 2.16% 1.88% 17 Restaurants and hotels 0.56% 0.24% 1.36% 18 Transport and storage 1.73% 0.59% 1.13% 19 Financial intermediation 4.31% 1.77% 2.12% 20 Real estate and renting 0.28% 0.11% 0.27% 21 Information and communication 7.64% 5.02% 5.60% 22 Business services 3.31% 3.60% 1.83% 23 Public administration and defense 0.68% 0.34% 2.01% 24 Education 4.84% 0.74% 1.12% 25 Health and social work 1.68% 0.26% 1.03% 26 Culture and entertainment services 5.03% 1.31% 4.84% 27 Other service activities 1.47% 4.01% 1.56% 9
25% 20% 15% EC IP CI 10% 5% 0% 10
25% 20% 15% 10% EC IP CI 5% 0% 11
Standard growth accounting Korea Industrial Productivity (KIP) Database Labor input (18 types of labors) Capital input (5 types of assets) Labor and capital cost shares (two-year averaged) User cost of capital (unadjusted for tax) Market economy, manufacturing, and services 1981-1995 and 1996-2010 12
Growth accounting with intangibles Value-added and labor input adjusted for intangibles Tangible and intangible capital stocks (KT and KI) 13
Low (Corrado et al., 2013) High (Japanese Survey) Computerized information Software 31.5 39 Innovative Property Scientific R&D 15 32 Mineral exploration 7.5 7.5 Entertainment and artistic originals 20 58 Other innovative property 20 47 Economic Competencies Brand Equity 55 80 Training 40 38 Orgnizational capital 40 57 14
No. Industry name Classification 1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Primary 2 Mining and quarrying Primary 3 Food, beverages and tobacco Manufacturing 4 Textiles and leather Manufacturing 5 Wood, paper, and printing Manufacturing 6 Petroleum, coal and chemicals Manufacturing 7 Non-metallic mineral products Manufacturing 8 Metal, fabricated metal products Manufacturing 9 Machinery equipment Manufacturing 10 Electrical and electronic equipment Manufacturing 11 Precision instruments Manufacturing 12 Transport equipment Manufacturing 13 Furniture and other manufacturing Manufacturing 15
No. Industry name Classification 14 Electricity, gas and water supply Service 15 Construction Service 16 Wholesale and retail trade Service 17 Restaurants and hotels Service 18 Transport and storage Service 19 Financial intermediation Service 20 Real estate and renting Service 21 Information and communication Service 22 Business services Service 23 Public administration and defense Non-market 24 Education Non-market 25 Health and social work Non-market 26 Culture and entertainment Service 27 Other service activities Service 16
1981-1995 1996-2010 1981-2010 Market economy GDP Growth 9.4% 4.2% 6.8% Labor input 1.6% 0.7% 1.2% Capital input 5.5% 1.8% 3.7% TFP growth 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% Manufacturing GDP Growth 11.5% 6.4% 8.9% Labor input 2.2% 0.1% 1.1% Capital input 5.8% 2.3% 4.0% TFP growth 3.5% 4.1% 3.8% Service GDP Growth 9.7% 3.4% 6.5% Labor input 3.1% 1.7% 2.4% Capital input 6.3% 1.8% 4.0% TFP growth 0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 17
1981-1995 1996-2010 1981-2010 Market economy GDP Growth 9.6% 4.3% 6.9% Labor input 1.5% 0.6% 1.1% Tangible capital input 5.1% 1.5% 3.3% Intangible capital input 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% TFP growth 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% Manufacturing GDP Growth 11.8% 6.5% 9.2% Labor input 2.0% -0.2% 0.9% Tangible capital input 5.3% 1.9% 3.6% Intangible capital input 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% TFP growth 3.3% 3.9% 3.6% Service GDP Growth 9.8% 3.4% 6.6% Labor input 2.9% 1.5% 2.2% Tangible capital input 5.9% 1.4% 3.7% Intangible capital input 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% TFP growth 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 18
1981-1995 1996-2010 1981-2010 Market economy GDP Growth 9.6% 4.3% 6.9% Labor input 1.5% 0.6% 1.1% Tangible capital input 5.1% 1.5% 3.3% Intangible capital input 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% TFP growth 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% Manufacturing GDP Growth 11.8% 6.5% 9.2% Labor input 2.0% -0.2% 0.9% Tangible capital input 5.3% 1.9% 3.6% Intangible capital input 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% TFP growth 3.3% 3.9% 3.6% Service GDP Growth 9.8% 3.4% 6.6% Labor input 2.9% 1.5% 2.2% Tangible capital input 5.9% 1.4% 3.7% Intangible capital input 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% TFP growth 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 19
12.0% 10.0% TFP growth 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1981 1995 1996 2010 Intangible capital input Tangible capital input Labor input 100% 80% TFP growth 60% 40% 20% Intangible capital input Tangible capital input Labor input 0% 1981 1995 1996 2010 20
14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1981 1995 1996 2010 TFP growth Intangible capital input Tangible capital input Labor input 100% 80% TFP growth 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 1981 1995 1996 2010 Intangible capital input Tangible capital input Labor input 21
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1981 1995 1996 2010 TFP growth Intangible capital input Tangible capital input Labor input 100% 80% TFP growth 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 1981 1995 1996 2010 Intangible capital input Tangible capital input Labor input 22
Labor productivity growth Total capital deepening Tangible Capital deepening Intangible capital deepening Labor composition TFP Korea (-2010) 4.6 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.7 Japan (-2010) 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.5 United States 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.1 Austria 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.4 Belgium 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.0 Czech Rep. 4.2 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.3 1.5 Denmark 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 Finland 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.7 France 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 Germany 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 Ireland 3.8 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.2 Italy 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 Netherlands 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 Slovenia 5.3 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.7 2.9 Spain 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 Sweden 3.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 1.5 UK 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.1 Sources: EU from Corrado et al. 2013 and Japan from Miyagawa 2014 23
Total capital deepening Tangible capital deepening Intangible capital deepening Labor composition TFP Korea 50.0 37.0 13.0 15.2 37.0 Japan 42 31.2 10.7 35.7 22.3 US 53.9 25.5 28.4 7.3 39 EU (GDP weighted average) 65.4 41.6 23.8 14.8 19 EU (Unweighted average) 57.3 34.3 23 15.5 26.3 Sources: EU from Corrado et al. 2013 and Japan from Miyagawa 2014 24
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Tangible capital deepening Intangible capital deepening Labor composition TFP 20% 10% 0% Korea Japan US EU (GDP weighted average) Sources: EU from Corrado et al. 2013 and Japan from Miyagawa 2014 25