Mortgage Performance Summary QUARTERLY UPDATE Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in 1st Quarter, 2017 Joseph Mengedoth Michael Stanley
350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 Index, 1995:Q1=100 Figure 1 FHFA House Price Index: United States Charleston Hagerstown-Martinsburg Morgantown Washington-Arlington-Alexandia Wheeling Index, 1995:Q1=100 Cumberland Huntington-Ashland Parkersburg-Marietta-Vienna Weirton-Steubenville Winchester 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (2017:Q1)/Haver Analytics Figure 2 age of Owner-Occupied Loans in or REO 1 : Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 1 Real Estate Owned (REO) properties are in the possession of the lender due to foreclosure or forfeiture. 1
Figure 3 age of Owner-Occupied Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 4 age of Owner-Occupied Prime Loans in or REO 1 : Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 2
Figure 5 age of Owner-Occupied Prime Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 6 age of Owner-Occupied Subprime Loans in or REO 1 : Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 3
Figure 7 age of Owner-Occupied Subprime Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 8 age of Owner-Occupied Mortgages with Subprime Loans: Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 4
Figure 9 Unemployment Rate: Notes: Unemployment Rate in March 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics Table 1 Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia 1.26 29 2.33 5 Maryland 1.80 7 1.65 16 North Carolina 1.40 24 0.92 31 South Carolina 1.44 22 1.41 21 Virginia 1.13 35 0.61 42 1.56 15 1.10 26 Fifth District 1.41-1.09 - United States 1.37-1.39 - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2017:Q1)/Haver Analytics 5
Table 2 General Housing Statistics: Housing Units of Owner-Occupied Owner-Occupied Mortgages With: With a Prime Subprime Adjustable Interest Total Vacant Occupied Total Mortgage Loan Loan Rate Only Beckley 35,931 4,100 31,831 23,678 12,058 95.46 4.54 5.87 0.20 Bluefield 56,757 6,477 50,280 37,409 18,488 96.55 3.45 3.42 0.03 Charleston 141,585 12,964 128,621 93,571 49,796 97.07 2.93 4.44 0.23 Clarksburg 42,918 4,508 38,410 28,902 15,261 97.45 2.55 4.80 0.32 Cumberland 46,350 5,623 40,727 29,072 16,316 96.31 3.69 3.67 0.23 Hagerstown-Martinsburg 115,329 12,484 102,845 72,262 51,017 98.09 1.91 5.72 1.30 Huntington-Ashland 103,529 10,501 93,028 64,548 35,735 97.56 2.44 3.87 0.19 Morgantown 58,335 5,663 52,672 32,679 18,107 98.64 1.36 3.85 0.17 Parkersburg 75,203 7,793 67,410 49,382 27,992 97.87 2.13 4.58 0.31 Wheeling 69,542 8,080 61,462 44,290 23,319 97.50 2.50 3.56 0.26 Winchester 56,906 7,840 49,066 35,256 24,827 97.61 2.39 5.66 1.49 881,917 118,086 763,831 561,013 293,522 97.28 2.72 4.75 0.59 Fifth District 13,387,600 1,598,257 11,789,343 7,930,734 5,632,033 96.89 3.11 7.73 1.64 United States 131,704,730 14,988,438 116,716,292 75,986,074 51,208,208* 97.97 2.03 8.07 1.64 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. Source: Housing units are reported in the 2010 Census. Mortgage estimates are from McDash Analytics (March 2017). Definitions of the metropolitan areas are provided later in the document. *The figure for owner-occupied units with a mortgage at the national level is calculated by summing the totals for the states. 6
Table 3 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Beckley 2.24 1.48 2.20 2.22 1.57 1.77 Bluefield 2.04 1.54 2.04 1.53 1.26 1.96 Charleston 1.80 0.88 1.09 1.86 0.90 1.00 Clarksburg 1.61 0.62 1.06 1.52 0.71 0.97 Cumberland 2.07 2.02 2.24 1.57 1.16 1.94 Hagerstown-Martinsburg 1.93 1.35 1.43 1.63 0.92 1.07 Huntington-Ashland 1.78 1.59 1.28 1.74 1.37 1.20 Morgantown 1.03 0.54 0.34 0.80 0.37 0.33 Parkersburg 1.64 0.88 0.83 1.84 0.95 0.90 Wheeling 1.99 1.17 0.83 1.74 1.14 1.19 Winchester 1.12 0.50 0.70 1.02 0.46 0.49 1.88 0.94 1.10 1.70 0.87 1.00 Fifth District 1.69 1.00 0.79 1.47 0.77 0.60 United States 1.58 1.32 0.74 1.32 0.97 0.57 10 Figure 10 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 90+ Days Past Due 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 03/16 05/16 07/16 09/16 11/16 01/17 03/17 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 0 7
Table 4 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics: 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Beckley 2.24 1.41 2.02 2.22 1.43 1.86 Bluefield 2.00 1.41 2.04 1.48 1.20 1.96 Charleston 1.71 0.86 1.11 1.82 0.90 1.02 Clarksburg 1.62 0.53 1.02 1.49 0.73 0.93 Cumberland 2.07 1.98 2.25 1.53 1.20 1.98 Hagerstown-Martinsburg 1.89 1.34 1.42 1.60 0.91 1.08 Huntington-Ashland 1.74 1.58 1.26 1.70 1.37 1.21 Morgantown 0.96 0.50 0.35 0.81 0.37 0.33 Parkersburg 1.55 0.87 0.81 1.79 0.94 0.89 Wheeling 1.83 1.15 0.77 1.68 1.13 1.13 Winchester 1.07 0.49 0.69 1.00 0.44 0.51 1.80 0.91 1.07 1.67 0.86 1.00 Fifth District 1.64 0.98 0.79 1.45 0.77 0.61 United States 1.55 1.30 0.73 1.30 0.97 0.57 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Figure 11 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics: 90+ Days Past Due 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 03/16 05/16 07/16 09/16 11/16 01/17 03/17 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 1.8 1.7 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 8
Table 5 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics: 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Beckley 2.16 2.88 5.76 2.26 4.51 0.00 Bluefield 3.00 5.00 2.00 2.88 2.88 1.92 Charleston 5.32 1.68 0.28 3.24 1.00 0.25 Clarksburg 1.32 3.95 2.63 2.53 0.00 2.53 Cumberland 1.95 2.93 1.95 2.42 0.00 0.97 Hagerstown-Martinsburg 4.24 2.02 1.82 3.14 1.48 0.74 Huntington-Ashland 2.99 2.09 2.09 3.22 1.61 0.96 Morgantown 6.67 3.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Parkersburg 5.69 1.63 1.63 4.00 1.60 1.60 Wheeling 7.59 1.90 3.16 4.14 1.38 3.45 Winchester 3.31 0.74 1.10 1.75 1.17 0.00 4.73 1.89 2.24 2.99 1.28 1.09 Fifth District 3.49 1.47 0.72 1.93 0.67 0.33 United States 3.31 2.23 0.88 1.93 1.09 0.43 30 Figure 12 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics: 30 25 90+ Days Past Due 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 4.7 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.0 5 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 0 03/16 05/16 07/16 09/16 11/16 01/17 03/17 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 0 9
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2.4 3.2 Figure 13 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics: 90+ Days Past Due 2.9 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 03/16 05/16 07/16 09/16 11/16 01/17 03/17 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 3.0 4.2 3.6 3.0 2.0 2.9 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Table 6 Unemployment Rates: age Point Unemployment Rate Change from March 2016 Beckley 6.3-2.2 Bluefield 6.2-1.1 Charleston 5.3-1.2 Clarksburg 5.4-1.2 Cumberland 6.4-0.2 Hagerstown-Martinsburg 4.5-0.4 Huntington-Ashland 6.0-0.7 Morgantown 4.2-0.9 Parkersburg 6.0-0.4 Wheeling 6.7-1.8 Winchester 3.5-0.4 5.6-1.3 Fifth District 4.3-0.5 Notes: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics (March 2017) 10
Table 7 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Charleston MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Boone County 2.62 1.64 2.13 3.50 1.75 1.91 Clay County 0.00 2.61 2.61 1.64 3.28 1.64 Kanawha County 1.81 0.88 1.08 1.90 0.97 1.00 Lincoln County 2.36 1.18 2.65 2.46 0.82 1.91 Putnam County 1.64 0.65 0.73 1.43 0.50 0.73 Table 8 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Hagerstown-Martinsburg MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Berkeley County 2.23 1.20 1.02 1.73 0.78 0.87 Morgan County 2.11 0.95 1.58 1.53 1.08 1.35 Table 9 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Charleston MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Boone County 2.72 1.53 2.21 3.60 1.80 1.96 Clay County 0.00 2.63 2.63 1.64 3.28 1.64 Kanawha County 1.68 0.86 1.11 1.87 0.97 1.02 Lincoln County 2.49 0.93 2.49 2.29 0.57 2.00 Putnam County 1.58 0.66 0.75 1.35 0.52 0.74 11
Table 10 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Hagerstown-Martinsburg MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Berkeley County 2.15 1.20 1.00 1.70 0.76 0.87 Morgan County 2.05 0.97 1.51 1.46 1.10 1.28 Table 11 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Charleston MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Boone County 0.00 4.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Clay County 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kanawha County 6.06 1.52 0.00 2.77 1.04 0.35 Lincoln County 0.00 5.56 5.56 6.25 6.25 0.00 Putnam County 5.66 0.00 0.00 5.06 0.00 0.00 Table 12 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Hagerstown-Martinsburg MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Berkeley County 5.60 1.29 2.16 3.21 1.61 0.80 Morgan County 4.76 0.00 4.76 5.00 0.00 5.00 12
MSA Definitions 1. Beckley*, WV Raleigh County, WV 2. Bluefield*, WV-VA Mercer County, WV; Tazewell, VA 3. Charleston, WV MSA Boone County, WV; Clay County, WV; Kanawha County, WV; Lincoln County, WV; Putnam County, WV 4. Clarksburg*, WV Doddridge County, WV; Harrison County, WV; Taylor County, WV 5. Cumberland, MD-WV MSA Allegany County, MD; Mineral County, WV 6. Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV MSA Berkeley County, WV; Morgan County, WV; Washington County, MD 7. Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH MSA Boyd County, KY; Greenup County, KY; Lawrence County, OH; Cabell County, WV; Wayne County, WV 8. Morgantown, WV MSA Monongalia County, WV; Preston County, WV 9. Parkersburg, WV-OH MSA Pleasants County, WV; Washington County, OH; Wirt County, WV; Wood County, WV 10. Wheeling, WV-OH MSA Belmont County, OH; Marshall County, WV; Ohio County, WV 11. Winchester, VA-WV MSA Frederick County, VA; Winchester city, VA; Hampshire County, WV *Indicates a micropolitan statistical area Source: Office of Management and Budget, 2008 Counties 13
Sources and Notes House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics Weighted repeat sales index, measuring the average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing on the same single family properties. Based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Unemployment Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics General Housing Statistics Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Area Definitions Office of Management and Budget, 2008 Loan Distribution and Loan Performance (1) Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics (2) McDash Analytics Mortgage Data McDash Analytics recently made a large enhancement to their mortgage performance data with the addition of several, primarily non-bank, mortgage servicers covering an additional 3.5 million loans. Performance numbers for the added servicers date back to January 2010. Historical rates may have changed in this version of the Mortgage Performance Summaries from previous versions. 14