Sensex (37413) / Nifty (11287) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Post a sharp sell-off of about 150 points on Monday, our market opened yesterday's session marginally higher. Although, it was just the opening ticks that were on a positive note as the index then continued its previous day's momentum. The index corrected up to the support of 11400 and consolidated around the same for the most part of the day. However, the bears had the upper hand yesterday too and the mentioned support was taken out in the last one and half hour of trade. The sell-off accelerated in the last hour and the index corrected further to end the session below 11300, a cut of another 150 points. The Nifty index has been correcting since the start of this month and it has now retraced 38.2% of its previous up move from 10558-11760. While the larger degree trend considers such retracements as just a pullback move, the velocity of the down move in the last couple of sessions has certainly created fear amongst the trader's fraternity. Also, after yesterday's move, the index has formed a 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' structure on the daily chart after a long period of time, which is certainly not a positive sign for short term. The index has ended the session in the vicinity of the retracement support range from where we usually see the pullback moves. Hence, there is a higher probability of a pullback move here on which could provide relief to the oversold momentum setups. However, considering the above-mentioned rationale, swing traders are advised to stay light on positions as the volatility too could be on the high. In case the index continues the downward move here on, then the near-term supports for the index would be seen around 11236 and 11170 whereas resistances on pullback moves could be seen around 11390 and 11480. Key Levels Support 1 11236 Resistance 1 11390 Support 2 11170 Resistance 2 11480 Nifty Bank Outlook - (26807) Post opening on a flat note, the Nifty Bank Index traded within a very narrow range for the most part of session however in the second half it slipped below its last few sessions support zone at 27136 and witnessed a sharp selloff to end the day with a loss of 1.45% tad above 26800 levels. In our last few articles we have been mentioning that the Index is trading within the range of 27553 27136 and finally after breaking below the lower range we witnessed a sharp selloff yesterday. The momentum of fall was so sharp that the Bank Index has closed below the 89EMA and 61.8% retracement of recent rally (26060 28378). Technically, we sense the Index may continue to slide towards its next support at 26550-26600 levels. On the flip side, previous support around 27000 27136 levels will now act as strong resistance zone. Traders are advised to keep positions light and avoid undue risk. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 26600 Resistance 1 27000 Support 2 26550 Resistance 2 27136
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.80% Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 9.53% as market closed at 11287.50 levels. The Nifty September future closed with a premium of 48.75 points against a premium of 54.60 points in last trading session. The October series closed at a premium of 89.20 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 15.20 to 15.33. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.33 to 1.25. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are BALRAMCHIN, INFIBEAM, UPL, SUZLON and CESC. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 1454 crores. At the same time, they sold worth Rs. 1676 crores in index futures with rise in open interest, indicating short formation in yesterday s trading session In options front, they bought worth Rs. 778 crores with rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, 11300-11600 call options added good amount of positions; followed by unwinding in 11700 strike. On the flip side, some build-up was seen in 10900-11200 put options and 11300-11600 strikes sheds decent positions. Maximum open interest for September series is placed at 11800 followed by 11600 call and 11400 followed by 11000 put options. Monday s pain continued to correct yet another 150 points. Index tumbles below the important support of 11400 mark and concluded the session tad below 11300. Despite strong selling pressure, we hardly saw any relevant open interest change in Nifty futures; however, banking index added decent shorts. At the same time, good amount of longs formed in Nifty earlier are still in system. Going ahead, 11250-11300 is the support zone for index; whereas, the previous support of around 11400 shall now act as an immediate hurdle. Gainers GODREJCP 2906400 11.54 1248.25-3.89 MUTHOOTFIN 3436500 8.32 436.95-3.53 DCBBANK 4756500 8.08 168.40-0.71 VOLTAS 4232000 4.65 575.60-1.58 HDFCBANK 19070000 4.55 2000.40-2.04 KOTAKBANK 12345600 4.53 1206.40-1.40 TITAN 16304250 4.50 820.75-4.20 SIEMENS 1648000 4.47 954.45-2.27 Losers BALRAMCHIN 10052000-9.97 76.20-4.14 NIITTECH 1236750-9.50 1319.70-5.84 ANDHRABANK 17888000-7.09 30.90 0.00 BALKRISIND 2898400-5.58 1138.35-2.38 INDIANB 4268000-5.49 319.05-0.44 CANBK 11270000-5.42 262.75-0.85 MINDTREE 4044000-5.31 1161.30 0.72 SRF 968500-5.23 1941.70-0.86 Historical Volatility HV PFC 66.71 NIITTECH 47.21 AJANTPHARM 46.59 HDFCBANK 15.95 ITC 26.03 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.25 0.82 BANKNIFTY 0.58 0.80 RELIANCE 0.50 0.72 ICICIBANK 0.44 0.69 INFY 0.57 0.46
FII Statistics for September 11, 2018 Turnover on September 11, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 2943.47 4619.57 (1676.10) 303939 25947.97 2.48 152196.32 151416.41 779.91 976293 85596.93 2.96 12829.09 13189.59 (360.50) 1183785 87308.46 0.79 9274.14 9262.39 11.75 119439 8789.10 0.84 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 264734 25224.46 12.45 10686093 1123695.74 69.89 825243 59621.93-2.78 695384 54393.00-3.39 Total 177243.02 178487.96 (1244.94) 2583456 207642.46 1.80 TOTAL 12471454 1262935.13 57.57 Nifty Spot = 11287.50 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 11300 149.65 Sell 11400 98.65 51.00 49.00 11351.00 Buy 11300 117.65 Sell 11200 82.65 35.00 65.00 11265.00 Buy 11300 149.65 Sell 11500 62.15 87.50 112.50 11387.50 Buy 11300 117.65 Sell 11100 57.90 59.75 140.25 11240.25 Buy 11400 98.65 Sell 11500 62.15 36.50 63.50 11436.50 Buy 11200 82.65 Sell 11100 57.90 24.75 75.25 11175.25 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 354 359 369 374 383 ASIANPAINT 1,273 1,285 1,299 1,312 1,326 AXISBANK 636 643 654 661 673 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,775 2,804 2,855 2,884 2,934 BAJFINANCE 2,504 2,552 2,611 2,659 2,717 BAJAJFINSV 6,137 6,250 6,364 6,477 6,592 BPCL 329 334 341 346 353 BHARTIARTL 368 373 383 388 398 INFRATEL 264 267 272 275 280 CIPLA 636 645 660 670 685 COALINDIA 270 277 282 289 295 DRREDDY 2,460 2,492 2,539 2,572 2,619 EICHERMOT 27,504 27,787 28,233 28,516 28,963 GAIL 361 367 374 380 387 GRASIM 976 990 1,008 1,021 1,039 HCLTECH 1,072 1,078 1,089 1,095 1,106 HDFCBANK 1,960 1,980 2,014 2,034 2,068 HDFC 1,842 1,855 1,874 1,887 1,906 HEROMOTOCO 3,092 3,138 3,216 3,262 3,340 HINDALCO 222 227 234 239 246 HINDPETRO 237 240 247 250 257 HINDUNILVR 1,549 1,570 1,597 1,618 1,645 IBULHSGFIN 1,095 1,113 1,142 1,160 1,189 ICICIBANK 318 322 329 334 341 IOC 149 150 151 152 154 INDUSINDBK 1,798 1,812 1,834 1,848 1,869 INFY 724 729 737 742 750 ITC 289 293 300 304 311 KOTAKBANK 1,189 1,198 1,213 1,221 1,237 LT 1,314 1,322 1,335 1,343 1,356 LUPIN 918 929 944 955 971 M&M 922 933 947 957 972 MARUTI 8,345 8,431 8,566 8,651 8,786 NTPC 167 168 170 171 173 ONGC 166 167 168 169 171 POWERGRID 181 184 189 192 198 RELIANCE 1,213 1,225 1,247 1,259 1,281 SBIN 275 279 285 289 295 SUNPHARMA 614 622 636 644 658 TCS 2,012 2,029 2,059 2,076 2,106 TATAMOTORS 257 262 271 276 284 TATASTEEL 571 581 599 610 628 TECHM 718 733 753 768 789 TITAN 787 804 832 849 878 ULTRACEMCO 4,029 4,068 4,128 4,167 4,227 UPL 662 675 695 708 728 VEDANTA 212 216 222 225 231 WIPRO 320 322 325 327 330 YESBANK 306 312 320 325 333 ZEEL 446 456 468 478 490
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