Impact of the Financial Crisis on Pension Systems in LAC Waldo Tapia Labor Market Unit Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) OECD/IOPS GLOBAL FORUM ON PRIVATE PENSIONS: PENSION REFORM AND DEVELOPMENTS IN LATIN AMERICA Rio Janeiro, Brazil 14-15 October, 2009
Agenda Introduction Private pensions in LAC and the financial crisis Evaluating the impact (assets, returns) Asset allocation Coverage Putting the crisis into a pension context Conclusions
Introduction The financial crisis has affected many aspect of the economy, including private pension arrangements. In Latin America private pensions play an important role in mandatory pension provision. In Latin America 11 have implemented mandatory individual account pension systems. Private pensions leaves workers retirement income vulnerable to investment risk. In DC pensions, benefits depend directly on accumulated contributions and investment returns.
Millions of US$ Market value of pension assets By December 2008, the total assets of pension funds in LAC had decline by about US$ 52 billion, or nearly 14% relative to December 2007 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Which countries were affected? Some of the countries most affected were Chile, Argentina, Peru. This lower value of the investment should not be interpreted as a loss, particularly where long-term savings are concerned 10,000 0-10,000 (-11%) (-23%) (-17%) (-15%) (8%) (13%) (34%) (6%) -20,000-30,000-40,000 (-33%) Chile México Argentina Perú Uruguay Costa Rica El Salvador Bolivia Colombia
Assets as % of GDP As a % of the economy mandatory private pension funds in LAC fell from 16% in 2007 to 14% 2008 In OECD countries the ratio for pension funds decreased from 76% of GDP in 2007 to 63% of GDP in 2008 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Costa Rica El Salvador México Perú R. Dom. Uruguay OECD 2007 2008
The impact on investment returns Almost all countries experienced a negative return in real terms over January to December 2008 Some of the countries most affected are those where equities represent a higher proportion of total assets invested 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2% -25% -3% -2% 6% -11% 1% -3% -1% -9% 1% 3% -2% -7% 20% -29% 1% -22% Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Costa Rica El Salvador México Perú Uruguay 2007 2008
The experience in OECD countries 2008 pension fund nominal and real returns in selected countries (%) Pension funds in OECD countries experienced during 2008 a negative real return of: 17.4% (unweighted average) 23.0% (weighted average)
a % 7% % % 4% % 8% 7% 8% 7% 6% 9% 5% 6% 8% Shifts 7% in asset 8% 8% allocation Argentina El Salvador Bolivia 6% Chile Jun-08 11% 11% Colombia 4% 4% 1% 0% Investments by group of instruments (as % of total asset) México Perú Dec-08 R. Domini Costa Rica Uruguay El Salvador 70 60 50 México 40 30 20 10 0 9 Perú Dec-08 14 8% 8% 48 46 R. Domini 1% 0% Gov. bonds 68 61 58 57 Uruguay 43 36 24 17 Chile Colombia México Perú Uruguay Total 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Domestic equities 41 23 25 20 15 15 14 12 8 6 Chile Colombia México Perú Uruguay Total 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 36 29 11 Foreign instruments 21 14 15 16 12 9 10 3 4 Chile Colombia México Perú Uruguay Total
Impact on coverage The decline in the value of pension funds is not the only problem. It is also necessary to address the drop in coverage that will result from the economic slowdown. The unemployment persons will increase between 2.8 3.9 millions Country Contributors (thousands) Contributors / EAP (%) Contributors/Affiliates (%) 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 Chile 4,329 4,572 61.2 62.8 53.8 54.6 Colombia 3,522 3,840 17.1 18 45.1 44.8 Mexico 14,710 14,170 32.2 31.4 38.2 36.3 Peru 1,699 1,770 13.4 13.8 41.4 41.2 Uruguay 453 510 27.7 30.6 58.6 60.6 Total 32,162 31,611 33.3 32.2 43.4 42.3
Putting the crisis into pension context Pensions are, by their nature, long-term and so their performance must be evaluated over a lengthy horizon. A temporarily lower value is note the same as a real loss Pension systems in LAC are relatively young Younger workers can hope for some good years to make up the recent falls in asset value. Some countries in the region have implemented investment choice or multiples portfolios Multiples portfolios include conservative options for workers close to retirement.
The markets are recovering..and, with them, the value of the investments. 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Chile Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 24,000 20,000 Peru 90,000 80,000 70,000 Mexico 16,000 60,000 12,000 50,000 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09
Long-term investment Performance should be evaluated in a long time horizon Evaluating the results of a short period may distort the perception of their performance 12% 9% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7% 10% 9% 5% 6% 4% 4% 9% 8% 7% 6% 11% 11% 8% 8% 3% 0% Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Costa Rica El Salvador México Perú Uruguay 2007 2008
Pension systems in LAC are relatively young A major drop in asset values may not matter much to younger workers who can expect the markets to recover overall in the long term The proportion of the elderly experiencing major declines in pension income is relatively small in most LAC País < 30 30-44 45-59 > 60 Argentina 29 45 21 5 Bolivia 23 44 25 8 Chile 30 41 26 3 Colombia 38 48 14 0 Costa Rica 40 35 20 5 El Salvador 42 42 14 1 México 35 42 17 6 Perú 31 47 19 3 Uruguay 25 51 23 1 Total 35 43 18 4
Investment choice Multiples portfolios shield workers close to retirement from most of the losses in asset values
Investment choice A multifund model linked to the affiliates life cycle has been an important element in strengthening the pension fund system Provide a default options that involves a switch to less risky investment as people get closer to retirement Restrict investment choices for older workers to lower risk options Investment option More Conservative (E) Conservative (D) Intermediate (C) Risk (B) Riskiest (A) Men up to 35 urce: Superintendencia de Pensiones, Chile Distribution of participants by age 1-group 2-group 3-group Women up to Men Women Men from 35 45-55 35-50 55 Women from 50 1 1 2 2 3 3 0 0 1 1 53 53 3 4 65 66 36 36 73 73 20 24 6 7 23 22 11 8 2 2
Conclusions The impact on pension funds is clearly negative over the last 12 months The consequences of the crisis on the pension systems are important in LAC (mandatory and DC systems) Pension funds work with a long time horizon Negative investment return cannot be interpreted directly as a loss Pension fund performance has been positive over the last 10-15 years Pension systems in LAC are relatively new For younger workers, pensions are long term savings
Conclusions Some countries have implemented individual choice Financial education is necessary to ensure that members understand the risk they are exposed to It is also to address the drop in coverage that will result from the economic slowdown Diversify retirement schemes The balance between public and private schemes should not be framed solely around the crisis Government should resist to reactions that threaten the long term stability of retirement income provision