Thursday, Nov 16, 2017 MARKET NEWS Coal News The API2 Cal18 market came under immediate pressure on the open shifting 40cents lower to $84.00/t continuing its downward strength throughout the remainder of the morning session making lows at $82.85/t. After an initial gap lower on the open the German Power market quickly retraced a portion of the move in line with the back end of the API2 curve. The German Power Baseload Cal18 market closed just 5cents lower across the session at 36.25/MWh having made lows at 35.95/MWh during the morning session. The weakness across the API2 market came in line with reports from Rotterdam s city council who passed the Goodbye to Coal proposal which contained the decision to stop storage and transhipment of coal to the Port of Rotterdam. The Dutch Government stipulated it wanted to close coal-fired plants by 2030 at the cost of thousands of jobs with coal shipments expected to be directed to other ports. The skew across the front of the API2 curve steepened marginally on the close with the Q118 v Cal18 spread closing at 15cents higher at $3.55 with the backend remaining unchanged with the Cal18 v Cal19 spread closing flat at $4.50. The spread between the API2 and NEWC markets tightened across the front end with the Q118 API2 v NEWC market closing 35cents lower at -$4.30 with the back end widening with the Cal18 API2 v NEWC spread falling 30cents on the day to -$4.30. API 2/API 4 API 4 Bid $ Offer $ Mid $ Chg Bid $ Offer $ Mid $ Chg 1.10 1.60 1.35-0.35 92.10 92.60 92.35 0.15 0.25 0.75 0.50-0.05 91.05 91.55 91.30 0.25-0.95-0.45-0.70-0.10 90.35 90.85 90.60 0.30-2.05-1.55-1.80-0.05 89.55 90.05 89.80 0.25-2.05-1.55-1.80-0.15 89.55 90.05 89.80 0.35-3.30-2.80-3.05-0.05 87.60 88.10 87.85 0.10-3.00-2.50-2.75 0.00 85.40 85.90 85.65 0.00-1.85-1.35-1.60 0.20 83.45 83.95 83.70-0.25-2.00-1.50-1.75-0.20 82.60 83.10 82.85 0.15-2.55-2.05-2.30 0.00 86.50 87.00 86.75 0.05-3.30-2.80-3.05-0.25 82.75 83.25 83.00 0.30-2.75-2.75-2.75 79.65 79.65 79.65 Pg. 1
Iron Ore News Market Comment After last night s sell off the DCE took a breather this morning, stuck in a 4rmb between 444-448, closing at 447. The morning began with interest focused in the front month outrights with Dec trading a number of clips between 61.05 to 61.20, Nov trading at 61.40 in smalls, and Q2 trading at 61.30. Not a great deal to report so far on the spread front, with many remaining framed around value with participants happy to wait to see how the afternoon plays out, though Nov/dec was heard trading at 0.30. On LP, Jan was offered and paid at 19.5 whilst Dec/Jan spread traded flat. Tender Rio tender for 170k PBF at Dec 19-28 laycan, closes today at 3 pm. Rio tender for 70k PB lump at Dec 8-17 laycan, closes today at 4 pm. Port Inventory According to Umetal's survey of 42 ports in China, the total port inventory stood at 139.25 million tonnes on Wednesday, 15 Nov 2017, up 170,000 tonnes day-on-day, while daily cargoes evacuation decreased by 104,000 tonnes to 2.59 million tonnes.. Technical Report Commodity Currency Intraday Support and Resistance The AUDUSD has broken technical support and made a new low, however this has resulted in a bullish divergence forming suggesting downside moves could be limited. Support is now at 0.7572 and resistance remains the same at 0.7730 Pg. 2
Oil News Oil experienced its third consecutive day of declines at close of Asian trading Wednesday, as industry data reported U.S. crude stocks as rising unexpectedly by 6.5 million barrels to 461.8 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a 2.2 million barrel decline the week to Nov 10 The same data also showed gasoline stocks increasing by 2.4 million barrels, versus forecasts for a 919,000 barrel decline. Meanwhile, the IEA this week cut its oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd for 2017 and 2018, to an estimated 1.5 and 1.3 million bpd respectively, contrasting OPEC's narrative just a day earlier that next year will see a strong rise in oil demand. January '17 ICE Brent futures was $1.29 lower at $61.67/bbl, while the rest of the 35-month forward contracts traded between -$1.54 and -$1.29. Front month December'17 WTI futures was down $1.44 at $55.16/bbl, with the other 36-month forward contracts trading between -$1.48 and -$1.26. The January Dubai EFS widened $0.04 to $2.43/bbl, while the February Dubai EFS was down $0.02 to $2.43/bbl. The Cal'18 Brent/Dubai decreased $0.01 at $1.89/bbl, while the Cal'19 contract was $0.08 lower at $2.04/bbl. Benchmark 180-cst FO was $8.25 and $8.00 lower for both November and December contracts at $363.25/mt; Cal'18 decreased by $7.50 to $355.96/mt while the Cal'19 contract lost $7.67 to $322.29/mt. November 180-Dubai cracks were up $0.06 at -$2.69/bbl, the Cal'18 contract gained $0.26 at -$2.15/bbl while the Cal'19 traded $0.21 higher at -$5.09/bbl. The 3.5% Rotterdam Barges November crack was $0.04 higher at -$7.88/bbl, while the December contract gained $0.10 at -$7.95/bbl; the Cal'18 contract increased $0.38 at -$7.87/bbl and the Cal'19 was $0.26 higher at -$12.02/bbl. The front month January ICE LGO futures contract was down $8.50 at $552.75/mt, while the ICE LGO futures contract for Cal'18 lost $9.60 to $548.96/mt, Cal'19 contract was trading $8.89 lower at $539.46/mt. The November GO EFS differential narrowed $0.23 at -$15.23/mt while the December contract was up $0.98 at -$15.74/mt. The November Singapore GO contract slid $1.06 at $72.19/bbl while the Cal'18 contract was down $1.09 at $71.81/bbl; Cal'19 was $0.98 lower at $70.10/bbl. The November and December CFR-naphtha contracts posted losses of $15.25 and $14.75 at $576.00/mt and $570.00/mt respectively; Cal'18 was down $12.29 at $534.96/mt and the Cal'19 contract lost $10.10 to trade at $501.96/mt. November CFR naphtha-brent cracks were $0.41 lower at $1.60/bbl; Cal'18 was up $0.14 at -$1.40/bbl while the Cal'19 was $0.33 higher at -$2.92/bbl. Pg. 3
Physical Summary Platts HSFO Trade Summary: 2 trades 1) Platts HSFO 380CST: FOB Straits: 20kt: Nov 30-Dec 4: Petco sells to Hin Leong at $360.00/mt INCO2000 (4:28:34.808) 2) Platts HSFO 380CST: FOB Straits: 40kt: Nov 30-Dec 4: BP buys from Petco MOPS plus at $0.75/mt (4:29:44.68) Pg. 4
Platts Gasoil Trade Summary: TEN trades reported ----------------------------------------------------- 1) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from CAO at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 29-Dec 5) INCO (4:27:59) 2) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: 150kb: Winson buys from CAO at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Dec 4-8) INCO (4:28:02) 3) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 11-15: 150kb: Winson buys from CAO at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Dec 11-15) INCO (4:28:05) 4) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:08) 5) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:10) Pg. 5
6) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from Ocean Energy at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 30-Dec 6) INCO (4:28:13) 7) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from Freepoint at MOPS minus 20 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 29-Dec 5) INCO (4:28:21) 8) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:23) 9) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: 150kb: Winson buys from BP at Balance November minus 20 cents/b BP GTC (4:28:28) 10) Gasoil 500ppm: FOB Straits: Nov 30-Dec 4: 150kb: Winson buys from Ocean Energy at MOPS minus 15 cents/b (Deemed pricing Nov 30-Dec 6) INCO (4:28:49) Platts Jet Trade Summary: No trades reported PLATTS ASIA MOGAS CARGO MOC: DEAL SUMMARY: FIVE TRADES 1. 92 RON: FOB Straits: Nov 30 - Dec 4: Vitol sells to BP at $72.15/b for 50kb (4:26:38) 2. 92 RON: FOB Straits: Dec 3-7: Vitol buys from Sietco at $72.10/b for 50kb (4:26:43) 3. 92 RON: FOB Straits: Dec 1-5: Lukoil sells to Gunvor at $72.10/b for 50kb (4:28:33) 4. 92 RON: FOB Straits: Dec 5-9: PTT sells to Hin Leong at $72/b for 50kb (4:28:54) 5. 92 RON: FOB Straits: Dec 11-15: Trafi sells to Hin Leong at $71.70/b for 50kb (4:29:51) Naphtha deals summary: NO TRADES Pg. 6