Equality screening under Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 Background Under Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 (Section 75) NIFRS has a specific statutory obligation as a public authority to have regard to the need to promote equality of opportunity between the following groups: Section 75 Categories persons of different religious belief, political opinion, racial group, age, marital status or sexual orientation; men and women generally; persons with a disability and persons ; and persons with dependants and persons. Under Schedule 9 of the Act, NIFRS must also have regard to the promotion of good relations between those of different religious belief, political opinion or racial group. Our Equality Scheme explains how we implement our Section 75 obligations. A copy of the most recent Scheme, approved by the Equality Commission, is available on our website at www.nifrs.org/equality We are required under Section 75 to screen and, where necessary, conduct Equality Impact Assessments (EQIA) on strategies, policies, plans and key decisions. The primary function of screening is to assess whether policy proposals would have a differential impact and in particular, an adverse differential impact on the categories of persons listed in Section 75, and any sub-groups within those categories. 1 If a policy shows a possible adverse impact on any group, we must consider how this might be reduced. This would include how an alternative policy or approach might lessen this effect and serve to promote equality of opportunity and good relations. The Section 75 statutory duties apply to internal policies e.g relating to our employees and to external policies relating to the community we serve. Equality screening involves gathering evidence on the potential impacts of the proposal, focusing on the nine Section 75 equality groups. This information is used to help inform the screening decision, i.e. whether a full EQIA is required where a potential for significant impact on equality of opportunity has been identified. 1 Equality Commission for Northern Ireland Practical Guidance on Equality Impact Assessment April 2001 (revised 2005) 1
Section 75 equality screening outcomes are defined in terms of impact eg major, minor or none. Possible screening decision outcomes are as follows: Section 75 Equality Screening Outcomes If the conclusion is that there is a major impact for one or more of the Section 75 categories, then consideration should be given to carrying out a full EQIA (described as screened in for EQIA ). If the conclusion is minor for one or more of the Section 75 categories, then consideration should still be given to proceeding with an EQIA, or to measures/ amendments to mitigate the adverse impact; or to consider an alternative policy (described as screened out for EQIA with mitigation ). Where the conclusion is none in that no significant impact has been identified on all of the Section 75 categories, then decision can be taken to not proceed with a full EQIA (described as screened out for EQIA no mitigation ). Section 75 A conclusion in favour of a major impact would arise when:- a) The policy shows actual or potential for unlawful discrimination. Section 75 A conclusion in favour of a minor impact would arise when:- b) The policy is not unlawfully discriminatory and any potential impacts on people are judged to be negligible; c) The policy, or certain proposals within it, are potentially unlawfully discriminatory, but this possibility can readily and easily be eliminated by making appropriate changes to the policy or by adopting appropriate mitigating measures; d) Any equality impacts caused by the policy are intentional because they are specifically designed to promote equality of opportunity for particular groups of disadvantaged people; and e) By amending the policy there are better opportunities to better promote equality of opportunity and/or good relations. Section 75 A conclusion in favour of none eg no impact, would arise when:- a) The policy has no relevance to equality of opportunity or good relations; and b) The policy is purely technical in nature and will have no bearing in terms of its likely impact on equality of opportunity or good relations for people within the Section 75 equality and good relations categories. The NIFRS Screening Report on Principals for a NIFRS Crewing Framework has indicated no significant adverse impact for any of the Section 75 groups and decision has been taken screen out. A copy of the Screening Report is attached overleaf. 2
Section 75 Screening Report on NIFRS Volunteering Policy Part 1: Policy Scoping The first stage of the screening process involves scoping the policy or policy area. Policy scoping helps prepare the background and context and set out the aims and objectives for the policy being screened. At this stage, scoping the policy will help identify potential constraints as well as opportunities and will help the policy maker work through the screening process on a step by step basis. You should note that the Section 75 statutory duties apply to internal policies (relating to people who work for NIFRS), as well as external policies (relating to those who are, or could be, served by NIFRS). Information about the policy Name of the policy or policy area: Volunteering Policy Is this an existing, revised or a new policy/policy area? Brief Description Existing Revised New X This Policy highlights NIFRS commitment to the use of Volunteers to assist the organisation promote its Community Protection initiatives and engage with the community it serves. It outlines how NIFRS will support the Volunteers and also provides detail on NIFRS expectations of Volunteers. What is it trying to achieve? (intended aims and outcomes) The Policy provides an overview of NIFRS expectations of Volunteers and how they will be an important part of the NIFRS engagement activity to meet its mission of Protecting our Community
Are there any Section 75 categories which might be expected to benefit from the intended policy? YES NO N/A x If YES, explain how: NIFRS welcomes people who wish to volunteer from all Section 75 groups. Who initiated or wrote the policy? Community Engagement & Volunteering Co-ordinator Who owns and who implements each element of the policy? The Policy falls within the Community Protection Directorate, however the Community Engagement & Volunteering Co-ordinator will have the responsibility of overall management of the volunteer programme. Each volunteer will be provided with an NIFRS named contact that will provide support and guidance. Implementation factors Are there any factors which could contribute to/detract from the intended aim/outcome of the policy/decision? If YES, are they YES NO N/A X Financial? YES/NO (If YES, please detail) Financial factors that would contribute to successful implementation of the NIFRS Volunteering Policy:- NIFRS seeks to effectively target resources and preventative measures to those most at risk in our community. NIFRS in line with other Fire and Rescue Services would propose using volunteers to add value and capacity. Recent statistics highlight that deaths from fires have increased after a steady downward trend as a result NIFRS through its revised People at Risk Strategy aims to carry out more preventative engagement within communities. 4
Legislative?: YES/NO (If YES, please detail) Legislative factors that would contribute to successful implementation of the NIFRS Crewing Framework:- Fire Services Order (2006) includes a statutory requirement for NIFRS to promote fire safety and engage with the community on community protection initiatives. Whilst not NIFRS employees, volunteers will be expected to ensure their conduct is in accordance to NIFRS core values and does not discriminate when engaging with the general public on behalf of NIFRS. Conversely Volunteers are protected against discrimination when carrying out activities on behalf of NIFRS. Legislative factors that would detract from successful implementation of the NIFRS Crewing Framework: Any instance where NIFRS breaches the above provisions resulting in litigation against the Service, or where NIFRS is impeded in fulfilling its statutory compliance by the actions of other parties or due to budget constraints. 5
, please specify: factors that would contribute to successful implementation of the NIFRS Crewing Framework:- Not applicable Main stakeholders affected Who are the internal and external stakeholders (actual or potential) that the policy will impact upon? Employees: Operational Crews Supervisory Officers Support staff working within Community Development Department at Headquarters Areas and District Commands. Corporate Management Team Board Service users: General public including those targeted by various Community Protection Strategies such as NIFRS Road Safety Strategy and People at Risk. public sector organisations: Department of Health and Social Services and Public Safety Police Service of Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Ambulance Service Partnership arrangements with other bodies including Health Trusts Voluntary/community/trade unions: Section 75 representative groups across Northern Ireland Fire Brigades Union Also individuals and groups on the current NIFRS Equality Consultee list. 6
, please specify: Organisations representing interests of particular groups, e.g. Carers NI, Disability Action, Age NI, Citizens Advice Bureau Volunteer Organisations that would be able to assist with advertising NIFRS roles e.g. North West Volunteer Centre policies with a bearing on this policy What are they and who owns them? NIFRS Equality and Diversity Strategy HR Manager Equality, Inclusion & Legal NIFRS Joint Declaration of Protection & Good and Harmonious Working Environment Policy - HR Manager Equality, Inclusion & Legal NIFRS Health and Safety Policy Health & Safety Advisor NIFRS Data Protection Policy Data Protection Officer NIFRS Whistleblowing Policy - Director of Community Protection or Director of Planning, Performance and Governance NIFRS People at Risk Strategy Director of Community Protection NIFRS Prevention & Protection Strategy Director of Community Protection NIFRS Road Safety Strategy Director of Community Protection NIFRS Integrated Risk Management Plan 2016-2021 Operations Directorate Volunteer specific policies (responsibility of the Community Engagement & Volunteering Co-ordinator):- Volunteer Equality and Diversity Statement Volunteer Expenses Statement Volunteer Problem Solving Procedure 7
Available evidence Evidence to help inform the screening process may take many forms. Public authorities should ensure that their screening decision is informed by relevant data. What evidence/information (both qualitative and quantitative) have you gathered to inform this policy? Specify details for relevant Section 75 categories. Section 75 Category Details of Evidence/Information For all categories Volunteer Now Strategic Plan 2011-2016 Promoting Equality and Diversity in Volunteering A Guide for Volunteering Organisations (Equality Commission for Northern Ireland and Volunteer Now 2010) Volunteers and the people who benefit from their work will reflect diversity in many ways including ethnic and community background, gender, religion, political opinion, disability, sexual orientation and age. The successful implementation of equality and diversity standards in all aspects of volunteering will help to provide a good and harmonious environment for all. It will also ensure that volunteers, employees and service users are all valued, respected, motivated and treated fairly. Volunteers have the right to be protected from discrimination and harassment. They also have a responsibility not to discriminate against others. The guide also provides 8 Equality Standards for promoting equality of opportunity and diversity in volunteering. A volunteer involving organisation seeking to promote equality and diversity and equality of opportunity will:- 1. Commit to Promoting Equality and Diversity 2. Allocate Appropriate Resources 3. Encourage Fair Participation for All 4. Develop Inclusive and Diverse Volunteer Opportunities 5. Protect Volunteers from Harassment 6. Promote Fair and Transparent Recruitment 7. Communicate Clear and Fair Procedures 8. Support Diverse Individual Needs 8
Section 75 Category For all categories (continued) Details of Evidence/Information Promoting Equality and Diversity in Volunteering A Guide for Volunteering Organisations (Equality Commission for Northern Ireland and Volunteer Now 2010) In Northern Ireland we have equality and human rights legal framework which protects people in (or seeking) paid employment from discrimination. However as volunteers are not deemed to be employees, in most situations volunteers will not have legal protection under this framework. This is because there are a number of fundamental and important things that make volunteers stand out from paid employees. Firstly they provide their services for free, an expectation of a salary or wage and secondly they cannot normally be compelled to provide these services and may withdraw at any time. Consequently this places the emphasis on the need for organisations who involve volunteers to acknowledge a moral responsibility to protect them from discrimination. This is necessary to develop and promote a fair and harmonious environment for volunteering. It will also ensure that the organisation s engagement with volunteers complements other aspects of their work such as employment and service where they have legal responsibilities. NIFRS plans to hold stakeholder events to consult on this policy and will communicate our commitment to promoting a fair and harmonious working environment for all volunteers. 9
Needs, experiences and priorities Taking into account the information referred to above, what are the different needs, experiences and priorities of each of the following categories, in relation to the particular policy/decision? Specify details for each of the Section 75 categories Section 75 Category Age Details of Needs/Experiences/Priorities NISRA Statistical Bulletin Population and Migration Estimates Northern Ireland (2014) - 4 June 2015 In the year 2013-14 the number of aged 0 to 15 years old increased by 0.3 per cent, from 382,600 to 383,800. Although the number of babies born in this period (24,200) was smaller than the number of who aged out of this age group (24,500), the net effect of migration (+1,600 ) resulted in an overall modest increase of 1,200 in the population. During the same period, the older population (people aged 65 and over) increased by 2.4 percent, from 279,100 to 285,900. Over the last seven years, the older population has grown by 2.4 per cent per annum, from 242,000 in 2007 to 285,900 in 2014. At these ages, there is minimal migration; the increase is the result of more people ageing into this population than those leaving through mortality. The population aged 85 and over increased by 3.5 per cent (from 33,300 to 34,400) between 2013 and 2014. NISRA Statistical Bulletin Northern Ireland Household Projections (2012-based) 26 March 2015 Household Population by Age, 2012 and 2037 Age 2012 2037 0-15 382 367 16-39 581 547 40-64 577 591 65+ 261 467 10
Section 75 Category Age Age and Dependancy Details of Needs/Experiences/Priorities NISRA Statistical Bulletin Northern Ireland Household Projections (2012-based) 26 March 2015 Table 2: Projected population by residence type, 2012-2037 Population Population Change 2012-2037 Residence Type 2012 2022 2037 Number % One adult 197,600 213,000 240,200 42,600 21.5 Two adults 379,700 418,500 496,200 116,500 30.7 387,500 386,300 432,500 45,000 11.6 One adult with 121,200 126,700 116,200-5,000-4.1 with 714,900 749,000 687,000-27,900-3.9 All Household Types 1,800,900 1,893,500 1,972,000 Table 3: Projected by household type, 2012-2037 Household Type Projected Households Projected Change 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Households % One adult 197,600 213,000 240,200 42,600 21.5 Two adults 189,800 209,200 248,100 58,200 30.7 108,200 108,200 120,400 12,200 11.2 One adult with 45,500 47,400 43,500-2,000-4.3 with 167,500 175,000 160,500-7,000-4.2 All 708,600 752,900 812,700 104,000 14.7 11
Section 75 Category Age Age and Dependancy continued Details of Needs/Experiences/Priorities NISRA Statistical Bulletin Northern Ireland Household Projections (2012-based) 26 March 2015 Refer to appendix 1 - Number of Households by household type and Local Government District, 2012 and 2037 Refer to appendix 2 - household projections for each Local Government District Projected Population living alone by age and sex, 2012-2037 Population Living Alone Male Female Age 2012 2037 2012 2037 16-39 23,204 19,789 18,522 11,755 40-64 43,822 52,535 32,500 39,657 65+ 25,049 44,717 54,552 71,773 16+ 92,074 117,041 105,574 123,184 The Northern Ireland Census 2011 informs us that 49.0 per cent of the Northern Ireland population are men and 51.0 per cent women. In addition, various studies estimate that there are between 115 and 160 people who selfidentify as transgender, although these figures are likely to be an underestimation Source: Northern Ireland House Condition Survey 2009 12
Section 75 Category Details of Needs/Experiences/Priorities Age Disability The Northern Ireland Census records that the most common long-term conditions in Northern Ireland include mobility and dexterity (11.4 per cent), long term pain and discomfort (10.1 per cent) and shortness of breath or difficulty breathing (8.7 per cent). Of the 67,193 social housing surveyed for the (Continuous Tenants Omnibus Survey (CTOS), 36.6 per cent had a disability or life limiting illness. Of these, 57 per cent had a hidden physical disability, 51.2 per cent had a physical disability and 17.7 per cent had a mental health disorder (NIHE, 2013c). (Source: Housing and Communities Inequalities in Northern Ireland - Alison Wallace - June 2015 University of York) Race White and minority ethnic groups by religion and religion brought up in, 2011 (Source Northern Ireland Census Table DCC2248NI) White (excl. Irish Travellers) Minority ethnic groups (incl. Irish Travellers) Catholic 45.3% 33.8% Protestant 48.9% 19.8% religions 0.5% 23.7% None 5.3% 22.7% Religion Age of household reference by religion, 2009 Northern Ireland House Condition Survey 2009 18-39 years old 40-59 years old 60 years old or older Protestant Catholic Mixed or no religion 22.7% 33.0% 37.6% 37.9% 36.2% 35.5% 38.5% 41.7% 41.1% 31.5% 23.9% 20.4% 13
Section 75 Category Details of Needs/Experiences/Priorities Sexual Orientation There are limited data resources that speak about the circumstances of people according to their sexual orientation. Sexual orientation is the only equality ground omitted from the Northern Ireland Census and the other data resources used to inform this review were limited in their sample sizes or omitted questions about sexual orientation. The Office for National Statistics Integrated Household Survey, however, has asked about sexual orientation since 2009/10. The 2011/12 wave recorded that 93.6 per cent of men and 94.2 per cent of women identified as heterosexual or straight, and 1.5 per cent men and 0.5 per cent women self-identified as LGB (Gray, A. et al., 2013). A greater proportion of younger people identified as LGB than older people; the greatest proportion of LGB people were in London (2.5 per cent) and the lowest proportion in Northern Ireland (0.9 per cent). 14
Part 2: Screening Questions Introduction 1. If the conclusion is none in respect of all of the Section 75 categories, then you may decide to screen the policy out. If a policy is screened out, you should give details of the reasons for the decision taken. 2. If the conclusion is major in respect of one or more of the Section 75 categories, then consideration should be given to subjecting the policy to an EQIA. 3. If the conclusion is minor in respect of one or more of the Section 75 categories, then consideration should still be given to proceeding with an EQIA, or to measures to mitigate the adverse impact; or an alternative policy. Taking into account the earlier evidence, consider and comment on the likely impact on equality of opportunity / good relations for those affected by this policy, by applying the following screening questions and the impact on the group i.e. minor, major or none. Screening questions 1. What is the likely impact on equality of opportunity for those affected by this policy, for each of the Section 75 grounds? Minor/Major/None Section 75 Category Religious belief Political opinion Racial / ethnic group Age Marital status Sexual orientation Men and women generally Details of Impact of Volunteering Policy NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including those of differing religious beliefs. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including those of differing political opinions. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including those from different racial/ethnic groups. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including those of different ages. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including varying marital status. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including all sexual orientations. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including all genders. Level of Impact? Minor/Major/None Minor (positive impact) Minor (positive impact) Minor (positive impact) Minor (positive impact) Minor (positive impact) Minor (positive impact) Minor (positive impact) 15
Section 75 Category Details of Impact of Volunteering Policy Level of Impact? Minor/Major/None Disability Using self-reported data the Northern Ireland Census 2011 shows that just over one in five of the resident population (20.7 per cent) of Northern Ireland had a long-term health problem or disability which limited their day-to-day activities and 79.3 per cent of the population did not. Many people may not wish to disclose or identify as having disabilities. This is of course highly stratified by age, as 70.9 per cent of people aged 75 years old or over has a life limiting illness, although there are also 19,988 0-15 year olds (5.3 per cent) and 32,278 16-34 year olds (7.6 per cent) in Northern Ireland with life limiting illnesses. The Northern Ireland Census records that the most common longterm conditions in Northern Ireland include mobility and dexterity (11.4 per cent), long term pain and discomfort (10.1 per cent) and shortness of breath or difficulty breathing (8.7 per cent). Of the 67,193 social housing surveyed for the (Continuous Tenants Omnibus Survey (CTOS), 36.6 per cent had a disability or life limiting illness. Of these, 57 per cent had a hidden physical disability, 51.2 per cent had a physical disability and 17.7 per cent had a mental health disorder (NIHE, 2013c). (Source: Housing and Communities Inequalities in Northern Ireland - Alison Wallace - June 2015 University of York) Minor (positive impact) Refer to Appendix 2 Dependants NIFRS has a number of strategies including the People of Risk Strategy which targets those at risk and also our Road Safety Strategy which specifically targets younger people. Volunteers may assist NIFRS in meeting its objectives regarding engagement with younger persons on various initiatives such as Road Safety. NIFRS would seek to afford equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS, including those with dependants. Minor (positive impact) 16
2. Are there opportunities to better promote equality of opportunity for people within any of the Section 75 categories? Section 75 Category If Yes, provide details If No, provide reasons NIFRS seeks to avail of the services from Volunteers from all sections of the Community. In particular we are keen to engage with those groups deemed most at risk under our Prevention and Protection Strategy which includes Older People and those with disabilities. 3. To what extent is the policy likely to impact on good relations between people of different religious belief, political opinion or racial group? Minor/Major/None Good Relations Category Religious belief Details of policy impact NIFRS wishes to provide equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS. Level of impact Minor/Major/None Minor Political opinion NIFRS wishes to provide equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS. Minor Racial group NIFRS wishes to provide equality of opportunity for all sections of the community wishing to Volunteer for NIFRS. Minor 17
4 Are there opportunities to better promote good relations between people of different religious belief, political opinion or racial group? Good relations category If Yes, provide details If No, provide reasons All Yes potentially as NIFRS will be seeking Volunteers from all sections of the Community who will Volunteer together to assist NIFRS engage with local communities. Additional considerations Multiple identity Generally speaking, people can fall into more than one Section 75 category. Taking this into consideration, are there any potential impacts of the policy/decision on people with multiple identities? (For example; disabled minority ethnic people; disabled women; young Protestant men; and young lesbians, gay and bisexual people). Yes as highlighted previously NIFRS hopes to engage with our local communities with Volunteers reflective of the community we serve. There is potential for our Volunteers to reflect multiple identities e.g. disabled minority ethnic and also in terms of age and religion. The list is not exhaustive. Provide details of data on the impact of the policy on people with multiple identities. Specify relevant Section 75 categories concerned. Not applicable 18
Part 3: Screening Decision In light of your answers to the previous questions, do you feel that the policy should: (please underline one): 1. Not be subject to an EQIA (with no mitigating measures required) 2. Not be subject to an EQIA (with mitigating measures /alternative policies) 3. Be subject to an EQIA If 1. or 2. (i.e. not be subject to an EQIA), please provide details of the reasons why: 1. Not subject to EQIA (with no mitigating measures). If 2. (i.e. not be subject to an EQIA), in what ways can identified adverse impacts attaching to the policy be mitigated or an alternative policy be introduced? Not applicable. In light of these revisions, is there a need to re-screen the revised/alternative policy at a future date? YES / NO If YES, when & why? Not applicable. If 3. (i.e. to conduct an EQIA), please provide details of the reasons: Not applicable. Timetabling and Prioritising EQIA If 3., is the policy affected by timetables established by other relevant public authorities? YES / NO If YES, please provide details: Not applicable. 19
Please answer the following questions to determine priority for timetabling the EQIA. On a scale of 1-3, with 1 being the lowest priority and 3 being the highest, assess the policy in terms of its priority for EQIA. Priority criterion Rating (1-3) Effect on equality of opportunity and good relations Not applicable Social need Effect on people s daily lives Relevance to a public authority s functions Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Note: The Total Rating Score should be used to prioritise the policy in rank order with other policies screened in for EQIA. This list of priorities will assist you in timetabling the EQIA. Details of your EQIA timetable should be included in the quarterly Section 75 report. Proposed date for commencing EQIA: Not applicable Any further comments on the screening process and any subsequent actions? The Screening Report will be updated following stakeholder consultation and any appropriate mitigation will be considered. 20
Part 4: Monitoring Effective monitoring will help identify any future adverse impacts arising from the policy which may lead you to conduct an EQIA, as well as help with future planning and policy development. You should consider the guidance contained in the Equality Commission s Monitoring Guidance for Use by Public Authorities (July 2007). The Commission recommends that, where the policy has been amended or an alternative policy introduced, then you should monitor more broadly than for adverse impact (See Benefits, P.9-10, paras 2.13 2.20 of the Monitoring Guidance). Please detail proposed monitoring arrangements below: Policy review will be undertaken initially after 1 year by the NIFRS Volunteer Co-ordinator. Further review will be after a period of 3 years or if circumstances necessitate, earlier if required. Part 5: Approval and Authorisation Screened by: Position/Job Title Date Julie Rea Community Engagement & Volunteering Co-ordinator June 2016 Caroline Smyth Approved by: HR Advisor (Equality, Inclusion & Legal) Alan Walmsley Assistant Chief Fire Officer Community Protection June 2016 21
Appendix 1- Number of Households by household type and Local Government District, 2012 and 2037 2012 2037 Antrim & Newtownabbey Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon Without Children With Children Without Children With Children 1 Adult 2 Adult 3+ Adult 1 Adult 2+ Adult 1 Adult 2 Adult 3+ Adult 1 Adult 2+ Adult 14,400 15,400 7,700 3,500 13,300 18,700 19,000 8,500 3,200 11,900 19,600 20,100 12,000 4,600 20,100 24,400 29,500 15,200 5,000 21,800 Belfast 48,500 35,700 19,200 12,100 26,100 52,500 42,800 20,300 12,100 25,700 Causeway, Coast & Glens 14,300 15,200 8,700 3,000 12,800 17,700 18,700 8,800 2,500 10,900 Derry & Strabane 15,600 12,800 9,200 5,200 13,400 20,300 15,700 8,900 4,300 11,400 Fermanagh & Omagh Lisburn & Castlereagh 11,400 10,500 7,200 1,900 11,000 14,500 14,900 7,600 1,700 9,700 13,800 16,200 7,600 2,400 13,300 17,900 22,800 9,200 2,500 13,500 Mid & East Antrim 15,100 16,100 8,300 3,200 12,100 17,800 19,200 8,700 2,800 10,500 Mid Ulster 11,100 11,500 9,000 2,500 14,400 14,700 17,100 11,600 2,700 15,400 Newry, Mourne & 15,800 15,400 10,800 3,900 17,000 20,900 22,600 12,900 4,000 17,500 Down North Down & Ards 18,100 20,800 8,700 3,200 14,100 20,600 25,900 8,700 2,800 12,300 Northern Ireland 197,600 189,800 108,200 45,500 167,500 240,200 248,100 120,400 43,500 160,500 22
Appendix 2 - Household projections for each Local Government District Antrim & Newtownabbey Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 29,400 30,100 26,600 600 2.2-2,900-9.7 16-64 88,800 88,400 84,700 400-0.5-4,000-4.6 65 and 21,000 26,400 37,500 5,400 25.9 16,600 79.0 over Total Population 139,200 144,800 148,800 5,700 4.1 9,600 6.9 Households by household type One adult 14,400 15,900 18,700 1,500 10.4 4,300 30.0 Two adults One adult with with 15,400 16,600 19,000 1,200 7.5 3,600 23.5 7,700 7,700 8,500 100 1.2 900 11.3 3,500 3,600 3,200 100 1.6-400 -10.4 13,300 13,500 11,900 200 1.5-1,400-10.4 All Households 54,200 57,300 61,300 3,000 5.5 7,100 13.0 Households by household size 1 person 14,400 15,900 18,700 1,500 10.4 4,300 30.0 2 person 17,300 18,500 20,700 1,200 6.8 3,400 19.8 3 person 9,500 9,500 9,300 0 0.5-200 -1.8 4 person 8,400 8,500 8,000 100 1.4-400 -4.2 5+ person 4,700 4,900 4,600 200 3.4-200 -3.3 Average household size 2.51 2.48 2.37-0.04-1.4-0.14-5.7 23
Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 44,900 49,700 49,200 4,700 10.5 4,300 9.6 16-64 128,800 135,900 145,200 7,100 5.5 16,400 12.7 65 and 28,700 36,700 54,800 8,000 28.0 26,100 91.0 over Total Population 202,400 222,300 249,200 19,900 9.8 46,800 23.1 Households by household type One adult 19,600 21,300 24,400 1,700 8.6 4,800 24.5 Two adults One adult with with 20,100 22,900 29,500 2,800 14.0 9,400 46.6 12,000 12,500 15,200 500 4.3 3,300 27.2 4,600 5,100 5,000 400 9.5 400 8.4 20,100 22,100 21,800 2,000 9.8 1,700 8.7 All Households 76,400 83,800 96,000 7,400 9.7 19,600 25.6 Households by household size 1 person 19,600 21,300 24,400 1,700 8.6 4,800 24.5 2 person 22,700 25,700 32,300 3,000 13.4 9,600 42.2 3 person 13,200 14,000 15,300 800 6.2 2,100 16.1 4 person 12,100 13,000 13,800 1,000 7.9 1,700 14.1 5+ person 8,800 9,700 10,200 900 10.6 1,400 15.4 Average household size 2.63 2.63 2.57 0.00 0.0-0.06-2.4 24
Belfast Local Government District Projected Change Projections 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 65,400 72,400 63,300 7,000 10.7-2,100-3.1 16-64 220,100 217,300 208,300-2,800-1.3-11,800-5.4 65 and 48,500 55,000 75,000 6,600 13.6 26,600 54.8 over Total 334,000 344,700 346,700 10,800 3.2 12,700 3.8 Population Households by household type One adult 48,500 48,900 52,500 400 0.7 4,000 8.3 Two adults 35,700 37,000 42,800 1,300 3.7 7,000 19.7 19,200 17,800 20,300-1,400-7.2 1,100 5.7 One adult 12,100 13,200 12,100 1,100 9.4 0 0.1 with 26,100 29,200 25,700 3,100 11.8-500 -1.7 with All 141,600 146,200 153,400 4,500 3.2 11,700 8.3 Households Households by household size 1 person 48,500 48,900 52,500 400 0.7 4,000 8.3 2 person 42,200 44,100 49,200 1,900 4.5 7,000 16.6 3 person 23,100 23,800 24,300 700 3.2 1,200 5.4 4 person 17,100 18,000 17,300 900 5.4 300 1.7 5+ person 10,800 11,400 10,000 600 5.7-800 -7.8 Average 2.32 2.32 2.22 0.00 0.1-0.10-4.3 household size 25
Causeway Coast & Glens Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 28,700 28,500 24,400-200 -0.6-4,300-14.9 16-64 90,200 87,700 79,300-2,500-2.7-11,000-12.1 65 and 22,600 28,800 40,500 6,200 27.6 17,900 79.4 over Total Population 141,400 145,000 144,100 3,600 2.5 2,700 1.9 Households by household type One adult 14,300 15,700 17,700 1,500 10.2 3,400 24.1 Two adults One adult with with 15,200 16,600 18,700 1,400 9.3 3,500 22.7 8,700 8,500 8,800-200 -1.8 100 1.4 3,000 2,900 2,500 0-1.1-500 -15.8 12,800 12,700 10,900-100 -0.8-2,000-15.4 All Households 54,000 56,600 58,600 2,600 4.7 4,600 8.5 Households by household size 1 person 14,300 15,700 17,700 1,500 10.2 3,400 24.1 2 person 16,900 18,300 20,100 1,400 8.2 3,200 18.9 3 person 9,000 8,800 8,200-200 -2.3-800 -9.3 4 person 8,000 7,900 7,300 0-0.6-600 -8.0 5+ person 5,900 5,900 5,300 0-0.5-600 -9.9 Average household size 2.57 2.52 2.41-0.05-2.1-0.17-6.5 26
Derry & Strabane Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 33,200 32,800 28,200-300 -1.0-5,000-15.0 16-64 96,200 92,700 84,200-3,500-3.7-12,100-12.6 65 and 19,200 24,900 35,300 5,700 29.8 16,100 83.9 over Total Population 148,600 150,500 147,700 1,900 1.2-1,000-0.6 Households by household type One adult 15,600 17,700 20,300 2,100 13.4 4,700 30.0 Two adults One adult with with 12,800 13,900 15,700 1,100 8.4 2,900 22.8 9,200 8,800 8,900-400 -4.3-200 -2.6 5,200 5,100 4,300-100 -2.0-800 -16.1 13,400 13,200 11,400-200 -1.3-2,100-15.4 All Households 56,200 58,700 60,600 2,500 4.5 4,500 8.0 Households by household size 1 person 15,600 17,700 20,300 2,100 13.4 4,700 30.0 2 person 15,600 16,600 18,100 1,000 6.4 2,500 15.8 3 person 9,700 9,500 9,000-200 -1.6-700 -7.2 4 person 8,500 8,300 7,600-200 -2.3-900 -10.6 5+ person 6,800 6,500 5,700-200 -3.7-1,100-15.9 Average household size 2.62 2.54 2.40-0.08-3.1-0.22-8.3 27
Fermanagh & Omagh Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 25,000 24,700 22,100-200 -0.9-2,800-11.4 16-64 72,600 71,600 68,800-1,000-1.3-3,800-5.2 65 and 16,700 22,400 31,800 5,700 34.2 15,100 90.6 over Total Population 114,200 118,800 122,800 4,500 4.0 8,500 7.5 Households by household type One adult 11,400 12,600 14,500 1,200 10.8 3,200 27.8 Two adults One adult with with 10,500 12,200 14,900 1,700 15.9 4,300 41.1 7,200 7,200 7,600 0 0.6 400 5.7 1,900 1,900 1,700 0-1.6-200 -12.1 11,000 10,800 9,700-200 -1.5-1,300-12.1 All Households 42,000 44,700 48,300 2,800 6.6 6,300 15.1 Households by household size 1 person 11,400 12,600 14,500 1,200 10.8 3,200 27.8 2 person 11,600 13,300 15,800 1,700 14.2 4,200 36.1 3 person 6,600 6,500 6,300-100 -1.5-300 -5.2 4 person 6,500 6,500 6,200 0-0.1-300 -3.9 5+ person 5,900 5,900 5,500 0-0.4-400 -7.1 Average household size 2.69 2.62 2.50-0.07-2.6-0.20-7.3 28
Lisburn & Castlereagh Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 27,600 29,400 28,400 1,800 6.5 800 2.9 16-64 86,700 91,400 92,800 4,700 5.4 6,000 6.9 65 and 22,000 27,900 41,900 5,900 26.6 19,900 90.2 over Total Population 136,300 148,700 163,000 12,400 9.1 26,700 19.6 Households by household type One adult 13,800 15,300 17,900 1,500 10.7 4,200 30.1 Two adults One adult with with All Household s 16,200 18,700 22,800 2,500 15.4 6,600 40.8 7,600 8,000 9,200 400 5.6 1,600 21.5 2,400 2,600 2,500 200 6.3 100 2.3 13,300 14,000 13,500 800 5.9 300 1.9 53,300 58,600 66,000 5,300 10.0 12,700 23.9 Households by household size 1 person 13,800 15,300 17,900 1,500 10.7 4,200 30.1 2 person 17,500 20,100 24,200 2,600 14.7 6,600 37.9 3 person 9,000 9,400 9,600 400 4.1 500 6.0 4 person 8,300 8,900 9,300 600 7.0 1,000 12.2 5+ person 4,600 5,000 5,000 300 7.1 400 7.7 Average household size 2.52 2.50 2.42-0.02-0.9-0.10-3.8 29
Mid & East Antrim Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 26,500 26,000 23,200-400 -1.6-3,300-12.4 16-64 86,100 84,400 77,000-1,700-1.9-9,000-10.5 65 and over 23,300 29,000 39,900 5,700 24.6 16,600 71.3 Total Population 135,800 139,500 140,100 3,600 2.7 4,300 3.2 Households by household type One adult 15,100 16,300 17,800 1,300 8.5 2,700 17.9 Two adults One adult with with 16,100 17,300 19,200 1,200 7.6 3,100 19.4 8,300 8,400 8,700 100 1.6 400 4.5 3,200 3,100 2,800-100 -1.9-400 -12.9 12,100 11,800 10,500-200 -1.9-1,600-12.9 All Households 54,700 57,000 58,900 2,400 4.3 4,200 7.7 Households by household size 1 person 15,100 16,300 17,800 1,300 8.5 2,700 17.9 2 person 17,900 19,100 20,800 1,200 6.7 2,900 16.2 3 person 9,400 9,400 8,900 0-0.3-500 -5.2 4 person 7,900 7,800 7,400 0-0.3-400 -5.4 5+ person 4,500 4,400 4,000-100 -1.4-400 -9.8 Average household size 2.46 2.42 2.34-0.04-1.7-0.12-4.8 30
Mid Ulster Local Government Projected Change District Projections 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 32,300 35,400 35,000 3,100 9.7 2,700 8.4 16-64 89,900 95,200 102,400 5,300 5.9 12,500 13.9 65 and over 18,100 23,900 36,000 5,800 31.7 17,800 98.2 Total 140,400 154,500 173,400 14,200 10.1 33,100 23.5 Population Households by household type One adult 11,100 12,400 14,700 1,200 11.1 3,600 32.0 Two adults 11,500 13,200 17,100 1,700 14.9 5,500 48.1 9,000 9,500 11,600 500 6.0 2,600 28.9 One adult 2,500 2,700 2,700 200 9.2 200 7.8 with 14,400 15,600 15,400 1,300 8.9 1,100 7.5 with All 48,400 53,400 61,400 5,000 10.3 13,000 26.8 Households Households by household size 1 person 11,100 12,400 14,700 1,200 11.1 3,600 32.0 2 person 12,900 14,800 18,600 1,800 14.2 5,600 43.7 3 person 7,900 8,200 8,600 300 3.6 600 8.2 4 person 8,100 8,800 9,600 700 8.9 1,500 18.1 5+ person 8,400 9,300 10,000 900 11.0 1,600 19.7 Average 2.88 2.87 2.80-0.01-0.3-0.08-2.9 household size 31
Newry, Mourne & Down Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 39,400 42,000 40,800 2,600 6.6 1,400 3.5 16-64 110,400 114,100 117,100 3,600 3.3 6,700 6.0 65 and 23,800 31,700 47,100 7,900 33.2 23,200 97.5 over Total Population 173,700 187,800 205,000 14,200 8.1 31,300 18.0 Households by household type One adult 15,800 17,500 20,900 1,800 11.4 5,200 33.0 Two adults One adult with with 15,400 17,900 22,600 2,500 16.4 7,200 46.5 10,800 11,200 12,900 400 3.9 2,100 19.3 3,900 4,100 4,000 200 5.7 100 2.4 17,000 18,000 17,500 1,000 6.2 500 2.8 All Households 62,800 68,800 77,800 6,000 9.6 15,000 23.9 Households by household size 1 person 15,800 17,500 20,900 1,800 11.4 5,200 33.0 2 person 17,600 20,200 24,800 2,600 15.0 7,200 41.0 3 person 10,600 11,200 12,000 600 5.6 1,300 12.5 4 person 9,800 10,300 10,500 500 4.7 700 7.6 5+ person 9,100 9,600 9,600 500 5.7 500 5.9 Average household size 2.74 2.70 2.60-0.04-1.4-0.14-5.1 32
North Down & Ards Local Government District Projections Projected Change 2012-2022 2012-2037 2012 2022 2037 Number % Number % Population by age 0-15 29,800 29,600 26,200-200 -0.7-3,600-12.1 16-64 98,800 95,300 88,200-3,500-3.6-10,600-10.7 65 and 29,000 37,000 49,400 8,000 27.6 20,400 70.4 over Total Population 157,600 161,900 163,800 4,200 2.7 6,200 3.9 Households by household type One adult 18,100 19,400 20,600 1,200 6.9 2,500 13.9 Two adults One adult with with 20,800 22,800 25,900 2,000 9.4 5,100 24.2 8,700 8,500 8,700-200 -2.4 0-0.2 3,200 3,200 2,800 0-1.0-400 -12.6 14,100 13,900 12,300-200 -1.2-1,800-12.7 All Households 64,900 67,700 70,300 2,800 4.3 5,400 8.3 Households by household size 1 person 18,100 19,400 20,600 1,200 6.9 2,500 13.9 2 person 22,600 24,500 27,400 1,900 8.5 4,800 21.3 3 person 10,500 10,300 9,800-200 -2.0-800 -7.3 4 person 9,200 9,000 8,300-200 -1.7-800 -8.9 5+ person 4,500 4,500 4,100 0-0.4-400 -8.8 Average household size 2.40 2.36 2.29-0.04-1.6-0.11-4.5 33
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