1 = Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 115 105 95 85 Durable and Semi-durable Indices Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma Durable Index sa Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index = = 1 130 1 Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector %YoY Private Consumption Indicators H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug P %MoM sa Non-durable index 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.6-0.2 0.4 Semi-durable index 0.7 0.6 0.8 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.2 2.0 0.2 Durable index 8.0 6.8 9.0 8.4 6.3 10.4 11.5 14.5 2.4 Service index 7.1 5.6 8.5 6.9 7.2 6.5 6.4 4.2 E -0.2 E (less) Net tourist spending 13.5 10.7 16.3 7.5 10.7 3.5-2.2-2.5 0.9 PCI 2.6 1.9 3.3 3.6 2.9 4.3 5.7 4.1 0.1 Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated 130
2 P = Preliminary Data %YoY (%YoY) Farm Income H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug Nominal farm income P 2.8 15.7-7.8 2.0-2.1 6.5 4.9 4.8 Agricultural production P 5.7 10.9 2.0 12.3 11.6 13.2 5.8 8.1 Agricultural price -2.8 4.4-9.7-9.2-12.3-5.9-0.8-3.0 40 30 20 10 0-10 Contribution to Growth: Farm Income -20 Apr Oct Apr Paddy rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil palm Livestock Shrimp Others Total Farm Income Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT 4.8 Index = 1 Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) 50 40 Consumer Confidence Index Real Income Farm Income sa Farm Income sa, 3mma Transfer of salary through Financial Institutions (Baht/person)* Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer. 2) y-aug figures were estimated by the BOT Total Current Next 6 months Average 5 years = 76.0
3 = 20.3 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 20.1 Bn USD %YoY Export Value Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data Aug = 22.4 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 22.0 Bn USD P P Share P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug %MoM sa Agriculture 7.6 20.2 20.0 20.4 3.0-1.6 7.8-4.3 6.8 12.8 Fishery 0.9 4.1 5.3 3.1-1.4 9.3-9.7-9.9-17.3-5.3 Manufacturing 87.5 10.2 9.0 11.4 12.4 14.1 10.7 9.9 11.2 1.8 Agro-manufacturing Products 12.3 12.6 10.4 14.7 7.4 6.5 8.4 12.5 6.3 0.9 Electronics 15.0 14.0 13.2 14.8 12.4 13.6 11.3 9.2 5.3-2.4 Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 6.7 5.6 6.6 9.6 3.6-0.8-1.2 2.8 Automotive 15.0 6.3 2.4 10.0 15.1 15.8 14.4 9.2 16.4 6.1 Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 7.6 6.7 8.7 9.7 7.7-2.5 13.6 3.5 Petroleum Related 11.5 19.0 18.4 19.6 26.4 26.2 26.5 34.9 19.4 1.8 Total (BOP basis).0 9.8 7.3 12.2 11.1 9.9 12.3 8.3 5.8 1.7 Ex. Gold - 10.9 9.5 12.2 11.5 11.2 11.9 8.2 9.6 1.2 Ex. Gold+Petroleum related - 9.9 8.5 11.2 9.6 9.3 9.9 4.8 8.2 1.2 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Ex.gold 130 Index sa, 3mma ( =) Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods Asian Export Performance Japan* China EU ASEAN5 US ME ID ex.oil & Gas MY TH ex.gold SG KR TW CN
4 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share 2011 H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug P %MoM sa Food & Beverages 20.2 3.6 2.2 5.1 2.8 2.3 3.5-1.7-0.7 3.0 Automotive 16.9 3.6-3.3 10.8 10.6 11.3 10.0 12.1-1.2-3.6 - Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.4 6.4 7.7 5.1 13.5 3.8-2.6 - Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1-7.8 10.8 12.3 12.4 12.2 16.5 2.7-2.8 - Engine 6.3 7.0-3.5 18.8 14.8 14.3 15.3 9.4-6.4-5.5 Rubbers & Plastics 10.0 7.1 0.8 13.8-2.5-1.7-3.3 6.3-4.3-1.4 Chemicals 8.2 2.4-0.8 5.7 8.4 8.9 8.0 7.6 2.2-1.4 IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 8.7 2.5 3.3 2.7 3.8 14.2 12.4 0.5 Textiles & Apparels 5.5-5.1-2.9-7.4-6.2-5.7-6.8 1.5-2.7-0.9 Cement & Construction 4.7-1.7-1.7-1.7 3.0 1.4 4.6 7.0 7.6 1.8 Electrical Appliances 4.1-6.9-4.6-9.7-0.2 0.8-1.2 2.2 9.0 8.3 HDD 3.2 14.0 14.2 13.9 13.4 10.2 16.6 8.6 6.8-1.6 Petroleum 3.1 5.0 3.7 6.1 11.7 20.6 3.9 14.2 7.4-2.6 Others 16.5-0.1 0.4-0.5-0.5-0.9 0.0-5.4-4.6 4.4 MPI.0 2.5 0.5 4.7 3.9 4.1 3.7 4.9 0.7 0.4 MPI sa % from last period.0-0.7 3.5 0.4 0.2 0.8-0.4 0.4 - Capacity Utilization (SA) - 67.1 66.1 68.2 68.6 68.2 69.1 69.1 68.5 - Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011) P = Preliminary data Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT Index sa ( = ) 115 85 Export<30% 30%<Export<% Export>% Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Index sa ( = ) 115 85 Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma) MPI Classified by Export Share Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production * The latest month was estimated by the BOT
5 Index sa ( = ) Bn baht 200 150 50 0-50 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Debt Equity 3MMA -17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18-18 Aug-18 Index sa ( =) 1,000 m 2 9mma 7,000 PII 1.5 0.7 2.2 3.9 2.2 5.6 4.0 6.3 2.5 Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value. Capacity Utilization (SA) - - - - 68.2 69.1 69.1 68.5 - Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug P %MoM sa -0.8-1.9 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.2-2.4-3.3 E -1.4 E Construction Materials Index -0.9-1.8 0.0-0.7-1.8 0.5 8.6 5.4 1.8 Real Imports of Capital Goods 2.8 1.5 4.0 5.3 4.0 6.6-2.5 2.2 4.5 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.0 0.9 1.2 6.8 3.1 10.6 12.7 16.3 E 2.9 E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators 5.7 2.8 9.0 4.9 3.0 6.8 13.8 19.7 9.2
6 Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 1 50 40 30 20 10 0 Aug 1.7% avg. FY-17 FY FY Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) Aug 14.3% avg. FY-17 FY FY Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht Fiscal Position (Cash basis) FY FY FY P FY P Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Revenue 2,412 2,354 697 617 545 538 758 181 198 (%YoY) (9.3) (-2.4) (-6.9) (2.3) (-0.8) (9.8) (8.7) (11.5) (5.1) Expenditure 1/ 2,736 2,795 641 593 945 599 731 203 174 (%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (-1.3) (7.5) (2.2) (-5.8) (14.0) (-8.8) (6.0) Budgetary B/L -324-441 56 24-400 -61 28-22 24 Non-Budgetary B/L -58 35 19 43-31 20 53-6 -59 Cash B/L (CG) -382-406 76 68-431 -41 81-27 -35 Net Financing 397 489 68 171 88 123 83 5 Treasury B/L 441 524 285 524 181 263 427 405 4 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
7 H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug P YTD No. of tourists ( 000) 35,381 17,324 18,058 19,482 10,9 8,873 3,176 3,229 25,886 %YoY 8.8 4.9 12.8 12.5 15.4 9.1 2.8 3.0 9.9 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - 4.4 0.8-7.1-0.2 - Index sa ( = ) 350 300 250 200 150 50 0 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand Tourists Classified by Nationality Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 9%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) P = Preliminary data
8 = 19.4 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 18.3 Bn USD %YoY Aug = 21.8 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 19.3 Bn USD P P Share P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug %MoM sa Consumer 10.3 7.5 4.7 10.2 16.4 20.3 12.7 8.3 7.9 4.1 Raw mat & Interm 53.3 15.7 16.9 14.5 20.4 19.5 21.2 22.9 22.2 3.4 o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 27.6 24.7 40.6 29.6 51.6 67.8 40.7-9.6 o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Import Value 40.2 12.6 14.0 11.4 14.0 16.2 12.0 9.1 16.4 9.7 Capital 25.4 8.5 10.0 7.1 5.4 6.7 4.2-6.5 1.3 5.4 Others 11.1 27.9 22.0 32.9 15.1 25.9 4.3-3.1 93.0 35.3 Total (BOP basis).0 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 17.9 16.8 12.4 24.2 8.9 Ex. Gold - 10.7 11.0 10.5 17.8 17.7 17.9 15.3 14.6 2.7 Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 8.5 8.2 13.8 15.5 12.2 6.4 10.1 5.9 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Import Value Index Index sa, 3mma ( =) Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 40 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data
9 % Unemployment rate (sa) Employed persons (%YoY) Underemployment rate %YoY 3 2 1 0-1 Labor Market Indicators H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 (1.2) Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT 1.1 (1.0) 1.0 (1.0) 1.0 (1.0) -0.6-0.1-1.1 0.4-0.2 0.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 Headline inflation contribution Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%) -2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT Aug 1.62% Thousand persons sa, 3mma 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 %YoY 3 2 1 0 Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS) Thousand persons sa, 3mma 15,000 Core inflation contribution Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 Aug 0.75%
10 Balance of Payments P P Billion USD P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug E YTD Trade Balance 34.2 16.6 17.6 12.4 6.6 5.8 0.9 0.6 13.9 Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 112.3 122.9 124.8 61.8 63.0 20.3 22.4 167.5 %YoY 9.8 7.3 12.2 11.1 9.9 12.3 8.3 5.8 10.0 Imports (f.o.b.) 201.1 95.8 105.3 112.4 55.2 57.2 19.4 21.8 153.6 %YoY 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 17.9 16.8 12.4 24.2 17.6 Net Services, Income & Transfers 16.1 6.4 9.6 9.3 8.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 9.7 Current Account 50.2 23.0 27.2 21.7 15.1 6.7 1.1 0.8 23.6 Capital and Financial Account -12.6-9.9-2.7-9.3-4.3-5.1-0.4-1.2-10.9 Overall Balance 26.0 10.2 15.8 7.6 12.0-4.3-0.9 0.2 6.9 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
11 Millions of USD P P P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Aug E YTD 1. Assets -35,112-19,085-16,027-6,976-5,328-1,648 105-3,409-10,2 TDI -18,632-6,727-11,4-7,450-5,081-2,369-293 -1,402-9,144 - Equity -9,301-2,503-6,798-3,189-1,871-1,317-507 -172-3,868 Thai Portfolio investment -11,551-6,324-5,226-519 -2,068 1,549 168-1,174-1,525 - Equity security investment -7,668-3,567-4,101-4,391-3,501-889 233-5 -4,748 - Debt security investment -3,882-2,758-1,125 3,872 1,433 2,439-66 -583 3,223 Loans -827-387 -440-6 27-697 -162 946 114 Other Investments -4,102-5,646 1,544 1,663 1,794-131 392-1,779 275 - Trade credits -6,467-2,313-4,153-2,791-1,178-1,613-416 -881-4,088 2. Liabilities 22,682 9,217 13,465-1,737 1,674-3,411-488 2,202-23 FDI 8,046 4,137 3,8 6,912 4,648 2,264 2 821 8,435 - Equity 5,122 2,243 2,879 2,735 1,279 1,457 865 493 4,093 Foreign Portfolio investment 9,401 3,8 5,593-6,510-882 -5,628-898 3,309-4,098 - Equity security investment 598 630-32 -4,635-693 -3,942-322 133-4,823 - Debt security investment 8,2 3,178 5,624-1,875-188 -1,686-576 3,175 725 Loans 5,240 1,5 3,6-784 -1,726 943 192-1,263-1,854 Other Investments -4-308 304-1,355-366 -989-485 -665-2,505 - Trade credits 3,783 1,342 2,441 339-4 829-247 -403-311 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -12,429-9,868-2,562-8,713-3,654-5,059-383 -1,207-10,302 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Net Financial Flows
12 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% 0% -2% -3% -4% Exchange Rate Movement end of Aug compared to end of 21 Sep compared to end of Aug Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg p.a. 10% 0% (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) INR IDR GBP MYR PHP SGD EUR TWD CNY KRW JPY THB Index ( = ) Times NEER REER USDTHB 6 Sep 114.6 5 Aug 105.7 4 Sep 3.8 Sep 2 (Average data THB Appreciation until 21 Sep ) 1 0 8% 6% 4% 2% Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) Latest data 21 Sep 4--16 27--16 18-Aug-16 8-Sep-16 29-Sep-16 20-Oct-16 11-Nov-16 2-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 19--17 9-Feb-17 3-Mar-17 24-Mar-17 19-Apr-17 12-May-17 2-Jun-17 23-Jun-17 17--17 8-Aug-17 30-Aug-17 20-Sep-17 11-Oct-17 6-Nov-17 27-Nov-17 20-Dec-17 12--18 2-Feb-18 23-Feb-18 19-Mar-18 10-Apr-18 4-May-18 25-May-18 18-Jun-18 9--18 1-Aug-18 23-Aug-18 13-Sep-18 2010 2011 2012 Reserves/Short-term Debt 2013 Q1 Q2 Jun-18 Aug E 3.2-18 Aug-18