DALRON CONSTRUCTION LIMITED RESEARCH COORDINATOR, JAMES CUDDY 4 JUNE 215, DAYS INN, SUDBURY
Overview What is Northern Policy Institute? Economic growth in Northern Ontario Economic growth in Greater Sudbury Conclusions and observations Q/A and Discussion
What IS Northern Policy Institute Independent - There are a couple of BIG differences between working WITH a Policy Institute and HIRING a consultant : we don t work for you and we can t guarantee an answer you will like. Independent means just that Funders, members and stakeholders do not direct the work of Northern Policy Institute. Board, funders, members and stakeholders do not pick projects or pre-determine results. Staff and contract authors follow the evidence Northern Policy Institute does NOT take positions we ask the questions the authors provide, and defend, the answers. Their analysis is tested before publication: Double blind peer review just like academic journals.
Our Region Northern Ontario consists of (Census, 211): 2 Economic Regions 11 Districts 166 Communities 72 First Nations 94 Municipalities ~ 78, individuals
78, bosses We work for and take direction from the people of Northern Ontario. Over 1 meetings and events in the past twelve months throughout Northern Ontario and beyond. Top ten issues: 1. Cost of electricity: WAY too high. 2. Need for partnership and collaboration among our communities. 3. Importance of the issues and challenges facing aboriginal communities. 4. Who decides our fate? 5. Our communities are dying; How do we sustain them and keep people in (attract new people to) the North? 6. Infrastructure: transportation and communication. 7. Protecting/understanding/reflecting the northern way of life. 8. Training access and relevance to local opportunities. 9. Do we really know ourselves? Data and measurement. 1. Where does all the money from the North go?
Know the North Statscan knows a little: 2 summer interns Drill down (to postal codes) then build up (to community level) Collectively, we know a lot: 6 summer interns Municipalities, First Nations Communities, Aboriginal Groups, Economic Development Agencies, Research Institutes, Unions, Chambers and other Community/ Grassroots Organizations What do you know? your data How do you know it? your tools, your timing (one time or cyclical?) Common tools - provincial surveys, common questions, common measures Examples: chamber and municipal satisfaction surveys, Sioux Lookout mining permit survey, Kenora growth project, Thunder Bay index, everything you ask or know about your community The KEY open honest sharing of information
Three ways YOUR issue gets on OUR to-do list 1. Research if necessary: Northern Policy Institute standing consultation tools will be used to inform, test and reset our internal research agenda and priorities. If your issue is shared by your friends and neighbours, it will likely get onto our to-do list. 2. But not necessarily research: YOU do the work, commission the study, and you send it to us for re-publication or dissemination. Big parts of our job involve avoiding wasteful duplication of effort and getting the word out about what has already been done. 3. Working WITH Northern Policy Institute: NOT a consulting service, but will partner in cash, or in kind to expedite needed work.
Trends and Characteristics in the North
We are a small piece of the provincial pie in population terms The north makes up only 6% of Ontario s total population (Census, 211) Northern Ontario Rest of Province
BUT, we are a big part of the global north Source: New Northern Lens, Northern Policy Institute 215
AND, our resources are of global significance Northern Ontario is one of the most important resource producing regions in Canada. In 213, Northern Ontario accounted for almost all the metals production and 23% of the non-metals produced in Ontario, Since 26 the region has consistently produced between 67 and 79% of the value of all Ontario s mineral production. Source: It s what you know (and where you can go), Northern Policy Institute 215
POPULATION Historical and projected population in Northern Ontario, 1871-236 Population is expected to increase to 87,1 (.5%) by 236 NW expected to increase by 3.9% NE expected to decrease by 1% Source: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 215
Northern Ontario HAS grown in places Source: Diversify, Innovate, Invest & Grow Northern Policy Institute 215
Percent Change Northern Ontario WILL grow in places 15 Northern Districts - Projected population percent change, 212-236 11.23 1 5. 1.43 1.97 2.75 3.94 6.41-1. -5-1 -7.31-5.58-4.6-3.9-15 -13.53 Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance projections, 213
Youth (15-24) out-migration is slowing -5-1 -15-2 -25-3 Northeastern Ontario 15 to 29 years Northwestern Ontario 15 to 29 years
But each district is different 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 211/212 212/213 213/214
Employment (thousands) Employment (thousands) Employment Northeast 27 265 26 255 25 245 24 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 Northeast Employment Northeast Share of provincial employment 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 Northwest 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 Northwest Employment Northwest Share of provincial employment Sources: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 215; From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute, 215.
Full-time employment 83 Full-time jobs as a share of total employment (%) 82 81 8 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Canada FT/Total Ontario FT/Total Northeast FT/Total Northwest FT/Total Sources: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 215; From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute, 215.
Participation Rates 72 Percent of working age individuals participating in the labour force 7 68 66 64 62 6 58 56 54 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Canada Participation rate Ontario Participation rate Northeast Participation rate Northwest Participation rate
Youth Labour Force in the Northeast Source: From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute 215
Elementary and secondary school enrolment is falling Canada Northwest Ontario 4,8, 4,78, 4,76, 4,74, 4,72, 4,7, 4,68, 4,66,.1% decline 5,25 students 33,5 33, 32,5 32, 3.1% decline 1,46 students 31,5 211/212 212/213 Ontario Northeast Ontario 2,8, 2,7, 2,6, 2,5, 2,4, 2,3, 2,2, 2,1,.6% decline 11,922 students 83, 82,5 82, 81,5 81, 1.8 % decline 1,47 students 8,5 211/212 212/213 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 477-37; Ontario Ministry of Education
Still our education levels are rising Less than highschool % Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma % College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma % University certificate, diploma or degree Census 26 Northwestern Ontario 3.1% 11.2% 18.6% 12.1% Northeastern Ontario 28.8% 11.4% 21.% 11.1% Ontario 22.2% 8.% 18.4% 2.5% Less than highschool % Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma % College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma % University certificate, diploma or degree (at or above bachelor level) NHS 211 Northwestern Ontario 25.2% 11.3% 21.3% 14.4% Northeastern Ontario 23.8% 11.3% 23.7% 13.1% Ontario 18.7% 7.4% 19.8% 23.4%
Economic Growth in Greater Sudbury 1. Population 2. Employment 3. Infrastructure
Trends in population in large Canadian cities 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, Population Trends - All Canadian CMAs under 2, Sherbrooke, 21261 St. John's, 211724 Barrie, 2416 Kelowna, 191237 Abbotsford-Mission, 178967 Kingston, 168353 Greater Sudbury, 16569 Saguenay, 16138 Trois-Rivières, 155813 Guelph, 15946 Moncton, 14673 Brantford, 14374 Saint John, 127314 Thunder Bay, 125112 Peterborough, 12327 1, 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 51-56
Population Pyramids 9 years and over 85 to 89 years 8 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 7 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 6 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 5 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 4 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 3 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 2 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 1 to 14 years 5 to 9 years to 4 years -1. -1.7-2.8-3.5-4.4-5.3-6.6-7.8-8.1-6.8-6.3-6. -6.3-6.7-7. -5.9-4.8-4.7-4.3 Greater Sudbury.4 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.8 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.4 7. 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.5 6.3 5.2 5.2 4.8-1 -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 Female, 214 Male, 214 Male, 21 Female, 21 9 years and over 85 to 89 years 8 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 7 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 6 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 5 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 4 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 3 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 2 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 1 to 14 years 5 to 9 years to 4 years -1.1-1.6-2.4-3. -3.8-5.2-6. -7. -7.8-7.2-6.7-6.5-6.7-6.8-6.9-6. -5.2-5.2-5. Ontario.4 1. 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.9 5.9 7.1 8.1 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.4 6.6 5.7 5.6 5.4-1 -5 5 1 Female, 214 Male, 214 Male, 21 Female, 21 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 51-56 and 51-1
Percent of total population Greater Sudbury Population Projections 3 28 Population Projections by Age Group, 213-241 25 23 Ages 35-54, 25 Ages 55-74, 22 2 15 1 15 13 13 7 Ages 75+, 17 Ages -14, 14 Ages 25-34, 11 Ages 15-24, 11 5
Trends in Youth (15-24) Migration in Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay
Labour Force Characteristics 66 Employment Rate (%) 7 Participation Rate (%) 64 68 62 66 6 58 56 54 52 5 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 64 62 6 58 56 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Unemployment Rate (%) Full Time Jobs (% of total) 1 84 9 8 7 82 8 6 5 4 78 76 3 2 1 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 74 72 7 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214
Youth Labour Force Characteristics 7 Youth Employment Rate (%) 75 Youth Participation Rate (%) 65 7 6 55 65 5 6 45 4 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 55 5 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 18 Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 6 Youth full-time jobs (% of total) 16 55 14 12 5 1 8 6 4 2 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 45 4 35 3 Canada Ontario Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214
Thousands Thousands Employment vs Population: Correlation Can we have population growth without job growth, and vice versa? Greater Sudbury: Corr =.91 Ave annual population change = 323 Ave. annual employment change = 8 Thunder Bay: Corr =.64 Ave annual population change = -122 Ave. annual employment change = -8 86 Greater Sudbury, 21-214 167 66 Thunder Bay, 21-214 128 84 82 8 78 76 74 166 65 165 64 164 63 163 62 162 61 1275 127 1265 126 1255 72 7 68 66 Greater Sudbury Employment Greater Sudbury Population 21222324252627282921211212213214 161 16 159 158 6 59 58 57 Thunder Bay Employment Thunder Bay Population 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 125 1245 124 1235 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 51-56 and 282-129
Employment vs Population: Cumulative Y/Y Growth Rates, 21-14 Greater Sudbury: Ave annual pop growth rate =.2% Ave annual emp growth rate = 1.1% Thunder Bay: Ave annual pop growth rate = -.1% Ave annual emp growth rate =.3% Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay 18 7 16 6 14 5 12 4 1 8 6 4 2-2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 3 2 1-1 -2-3 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Y/Y cumulative % change - Populaton Y/Y cumulative % change - Populaton Y/Y cumulative % change - Employment Y/Y cumulative % change - Employment Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 51-56 and 282-129
Distribution of Jobs Greater Sudbury 21 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 1% 4% 4% 7% 7% 16% 7% 13% 9% Trade Health care and social assistance Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Educational services Accommodation and food services Public administration Business, building and other support services Construction Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Other services Professional, scientific and technical services Information, culture and recreation Agriculture + Utilities 214 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 7% 8% % 8% 17% 9% 15% Trade Health care and social assistance Educational services Accommodation and food services Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Public administration Construction Transportation and warehousing Professional, scientific and technical services Business, building and other support services Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Information, culture and recreation Other services Manufacturing Agriculture + Utilities
Goods-producing Sector 12, 1, 8, Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Construction Manufacturing Greater Sudbury 6, 4, 2, 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Thunder Bay Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Construction Manufacturing 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214
Services-producing Sector Greater Sudbury 16, Employment by Industry Greater Sudbury Trade, 14,3 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Health care and social assistance, 12,8 Educational services, 7,2 Accommodation and food services, 6,9 Public administration, 5,7 Transportation and warehousing, 4, Professional, scientific and technical services, 3,9 Business, building and other support services, 3,5 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, 3,2 Information, culture and recreation, 3,2 Other services, 3,1
Trade in Sudbury A closer look Wholesale Trade, 213 (26% of total trade) Business-to-business electronic markets, and agents and brokers Miscellaneous merchant wholesalers Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories merchant wholesalers Personal and household goods merchant wholesalers Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers Farm product merchant wholesalers 16% 52% 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Retail Trade, 213 (74% of total trade) Non-store retailers Miscellaneous store retailers General merchandise stores Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores Clothing and clothing accessories stores Gasoline stations Health and personal care stores Food and beverage stores Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Electronics and appliance stores Furniture and home furnishings stores Motor vehicle and parts dealers 17% 21% 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 211 Census)
Health Care in Sudbury A closer look Health Care and Social Assistance, 213 Child day-care services Vocational rehabilitation services Community food and housing, and emergency and other relief services Individual and family services Other residential care facilities Community care facilities for the elderly Residential developmental handicap, mental health and substance abuse facilities Nursing care facilities Specialty (except psychiatric and substance abuse) hospitals Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals General medical and surgical hospitals Other ambulatory health care services Home health care services Medical and diagnostic laboratories Out-patient care centres Offices of other health practitioners Offices of dentists Offices of physicians 13% 24% 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 211 Census)
Accommodation and Food in Sudbury a closer look Accommodation and Food Services, 213 Full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places 87% Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) Special food services Rooming and boarding houses Recreational vehicle (RV) parks and recreational camps Traveller accommodation 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 5, Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 211 Census)
Greater Sudbury Infrastructure Indicators (bricks and mortar) Building Permits Industrial Commercial Institutional and Governmental Residential Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 26-6 (Adjusted for inflation, expressed in 214 dollars)
Value of Building Permits (Millions of 214 dollars) Value of Building Permits, all purposes 5 Value of Building Permits 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Residential Commercial Average - Total residential and non-residential Industrial Institutional and governmental
ONTARIO (Millions of 214 dollars) SUDBURY (Millions of 214 dollars) Value of Permits (Millions of 214 dollars) Percent change from previous year Industrial Building Permits Value of Industrial Building Permits, Trend 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Y/Y % change - Industrial Industrial Average - Industrial Comparative Trend 3 25 2 15 1 5 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Ontario Industrial Greater Sudbury Industrial Greater Sudbury Average - Industrial
ONTARIO (Millions of 214 dollars) SUDBURY (Millions of 214 dollars) Value of Permits (Millions of 214 dollars) Percent change from previous year Commercial Building Permits Value of Commercial Building Permits, Trend 12 1 8 6 4 2 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Y/Y % change - Commercial Commercial Average - Commercial Comparative Trend 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 1 8 6 4 2 Ontario Commercial Greater Sudbury Commercial Greater Sudbury Average - Commercial
ONTARIO (Millions of 214 dollars) SUDBURY (Millions of 214 dollars) Value of Permits (Millions of 214 dollars) Percent change from previous year Institutional and Governmental Permits Value of Institutional and Governmental Building Permits, Trend 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Y/Y % change - Institutional and governmental Average - Institutional and governmental Institutional and governmental Comparative Trend 6 5 4 3 2 1 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Ontario Institutional and governmental Greater Sudbury Average - Institutional and governmental Greater Sudbury Institutional and governmental
ONTARIO (Millions of 214 dollars) SUDBURY (Millions of 214 dollars) Value of Permits (Millions of 214 dollars) Percent change from previous year Residential Building Permits Value of Residential Building Permits, Trend 3 25 2 15 1 5 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Y/Y % change - Residential Residential Average - Residential Comparative Trend 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 25 2 15 1 5 Ontario Residential Greater Sudbury Residential Greater Sudbury Average - Residential
Conclusions and Observations Sudbury s population projections are weak, but not written in stone The number of working age women in Sudbury is disproportionately low Employment (including full-time) and participation rates in Sudbury are at or nearing provincial and national levels the gap is closing Youth migration in the North is slowing; Sudbury is leading the way Youth labour force indicators in Sudbury are strong recent influx of youth are added benefit but more needs to be done The food services industry shows promising signs of growth Trends in commercial building appear to be highly volatile Growth in residential building has not recovered from the financial crisis
Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch. www.northernpolicy.ca
Discussion Questions How can the public AND private sector: 1. Continue to attract and retain youth in Sudbury? 2. Attract and retain women in Sudbury? 3. Encourage local entrepreneurial endeavours? 4. Foster greater certainty and growth in commercial and residential investments?