The West Midlands Combined Authority Executive Summary of Annual Economic Review JUNE 2017

The West Midlands Combined Authority Executive Summary of Annual Economic Review JUNE 2017

3 WMCA Economic Review 2017 This report is produced by the Economic Intelligence Unit of Black Country Consortium Ltd If you would like to contact the EIU please ring 01384 471115 or email intelligence@blackcountryconsortium.co.uk All mapping in this document is subject to the following statement: Crown Copyright and database right [2017]. Ordnance Survey [100046698] You are not permitted to copy, sub-license, distribute or sell any of this data to third parties in any form.

WMCA Economic Review 2017 4 Introduction Andy Street CBE Mayor of West Midlands Bob Sleigh OBE Deputy Mayor of West Midlands Martin Reeves WMCA Chief Executive The West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) Annual Review is produced annually by the Black Country Consortium s Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) to provide an overview of the WMCA s economic performance during the year. The report measures success as set out in our Performance Management Framework (PMF) and enables us to monitor real progress towards delivery of the WMCA Strategic Economic Plan (SEP). 2016 has seen many significant developments including the formation of the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) and the production of a Strategic Economic Plan for the WMCA. The Black Country Economic Intelligence Unit played a fundamental role in the development of the WMCA SEP and plan to utilise its diverse and experienced skill set to provide a flexible intelligence resource to the WMCA. The EIU have developed a Performance Management Framework (PMF) for the WMCA and will continue to measure the success of our collective activity as set out in the WMCA SEP.

5 WMCA Economic Review 2017 Section 1: How we measure success

WMCA Economic Review 2017 6 How we measure success The WMCA Performance Management Framework The WMCA Performance Management Framework (PMF) provides a clear framework against which success can be measured. The Vision for the area has a number of smart objectives with clear targets. The PMF is composed of a selection of strategic headline indicators, which measure the impact of the various programme areas of the WMCA Strategic Economic Plan (SEP). These indicators span a wide range of themes including productivity, employment and skills, infrastructure, competitiveness, sustainability and public service reform and measure the economic, social, fiscal and environmental impact. The PMF is maintained and updated by the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) of Black Country Consortium Ltd who provide in depth cross-thematic spatial analysis on behalf of the WMCA. Understanding the economic impact of current and planned activity in the context of the WMCA SEP is fundamental to the work of the EIU. They continue to be at the forefront of new techniques including leading on the operation of the WMCA Dynamic Economic Impact Model which provides a clear mechanism to measure the economic impact of programmes in a spatial context. The EIU will annually monitor WMCA s progress in relation to the targets in the PMF so that we can be clear on the impact of our delivery plan in achieving our ambitions. The indicators in the PMF will also be the basis upon which we appraise and prioritise our programme of interventions to deliver the WMCA SEP. These carefully targeted set of interventions will ensure delivery of the greatest economic benefits to the area and allow us to create opportunities across the WMCA. Equality Fitness and Wellbeing Education and Skills Crime Social Impact Infrastructure Jobs Economic Impact Customers Suppliers Governance Employees Performance Management Framework Stakeholders Communities Environmental Impact Air Pollution Transport Fiscal Impact Waste Business Productivity Budget Business Rates

7 WMCA Economic Review 2017 Section 2: West Midlands successes 2016

WMCA Economic Review 2017 8 Theme Direction of Travel Scale of the Challenge WMCA Actions to Address + 7bn Since 2013 GVA continues to rise - currently 87.5bn + 7bn since 2013 WMCA GVA per head 4,000 lower than UK WMCA GVA per head still 4,000 lower than UK resulting in a 16.5bn GVA output gap 8bn investment package from first devolution deal HS2 and the Midlands Growth Strategy a catalyst for economic growth Economic Impact 22,430 businesses births WMCA has a growing business base with 145,410 businesses and 22,430 business births (nearly double UK growth rate) 2m jobs WMCA is home to 2m jobs, an increase of 95,000 since 2013. 27,151 current wage 1,468 businesses births To be in line with UK the WMCA needs to create an additional 1,468 business births per annum to reach 59 births per 10,000 population. 400k An additional 400,000 jobs to achieve our WMCA SEP Ambitions 1,062 more per head Wages are increasing at a faster rate than UK To reach UK average wage - 28,213 jobs Maximising opportunities for inward investment by improving connectivity to HS2 and UK Central and attract foreign and direct investment via the WMCA new Growth Company Enterprise Zones Public Service Reform 12,000 new homes built in 2015 Over 12,000 new homes were built last year - currently 1.7m houses in the WMCA 1.9m homes by 2030 Home to over 1.9m homes by 2030 Land Commission and Garden City Principles Number of people with no qualifications has declined at a faster rate compared to England 13% vs 8% Higher proportion of people with no qualifications than across England 13% vs 8% Productivity and Skills Commission Launched Social Impact The number of NEETs has declined more than threefold compared to England 2 11.4% 11.4% more youth claimants (14,805) compared to last year increase of 1.6% across England. Need to reduce youth claimants by 5,000 by 2030 to reach England average, similar trend for overall claimant count. Employment Support Pilot 24.8% 24.8% of adults are physically inactive across the WMCA 90,524 Required 90,524 additional adults to become active to reach national average West Midlands on the Move Strategic Framework 2017-30 Fiscal Impact Healthy Life Expectancy has improved for females greater than the national average whilst for males it has declined Income receipts to WMCA is on the rise 4.1 years Male healthy life expectancy 4.1 years lower than national average and 3.2 for females 4.5bn gap Gap between income and expenditure has increased from 3.9bn to 4.5bn Mental Health Commission -> Thrive WM Action plan in place Public Service Reform Environmental Impact CO 2 emissions reduced on last year by 167kt CO 2 (0.8%) 7,681 ktco 2 CO 2 emissions need to reduce by 36% by 2030 Support development of low carbon and zero carbon homes These colours are reflective of the theme areas in the report and don t indicate the direction of travel which is set out in the full PMF table from page 10.

9 WMCA Economic Review 2017 Growing WMCA Population 4.06m 4.54m Improving Skills Reducing Unskilled by 120k people Increasing Apprenticeship Starts Increasing Jobs by 400,000 by 2030 4.54m No qualifications Apprenticeships 3.92 m 4.00m +60K 4.06m 2015 2.0m Jobs 2010 2013 2015 2030 Population/Millions 2013 2015: 363.2k 329.4k 2030 Target: 209,500 2013/14 2015/16: 36K 42K 2030 Target: 84,300 145,000 Businesses Innovation and Enterprise Growth Increasing GVA & Productivity Improve GVA per head in line with UK Average by 2026 Reducing 4.5bn Fiscal Deficit WMCA UK 47 55 59 2013 2015 Current GVA per Head 17,339 BC LEP 25,322 22,285 GBS LEP WMCA CW LEP 2013 20,137 2015 21,537 31.08 2013 24,203 2015 25,601 UK 4.5bn Gap 35.54 Business Births per 10,000 Population Raising Productivity and Eradicating the 16.5bn Output Gap Double total GVA by 2030 Income Expenditure Reduce Health Inequalities an nd raise Healthy Life Expectancy High Quality, Connected, Readily Available development sites 40% Reduction in CO 2 by 2030 Healthy life expectancy will rise to: Ambition 63.4 years 64.1 years Current 59.3 Men 60.9 Women 1.9m Homes 1,600 ha Industrial Land 100% Premises with Superfast Broadband A Reduction of 7,681 kilo tonnes CO 2 Positive direction of travel compared to UK average Positive direction but below the UK average Negative direction of travel On track to achieve 2030 target 2030 2.4m Jobs

WMCA Economic Review 2017 10 The WMCA Performance Management Framework 1 Outcomes Measures of Success Where we are now Change over the last year Direction of Travel Relative to UK average since 2013 Scale of the Challenge ECONOMIC GROWTH - Improve GVA for the region in line with the UK average O1. GVA per Head 21,537 + 442 + 1,400 +7.0% WMCA 2 +5.8% UK + 4,064 GVA per head BUSINESS - Improve the productivity of our businesses focusing on our growth sectors B1. GVA per employee B2. GVA in transformational sectors 43,706 71.3bn + 28 + 2.4bn + 2,781 +6.8% WMCA +2.4% UK + 6.2bn +9.6% WMCA +7.4% UK + 19,832 GVA per employee + 40.7bn GVA B3. No. of Business Births 22,430 business births +3,485 business births +3,625 business births 59 per 10,000 population 55 per 10,000 population +18.4% WMCA +9.3% UK +19.3% WMCA +10.6% UK +1,468 births per annum B4. Jobs in Transformational Sectors 1.27m +55,000 jobs +82,000 jobs +6.9% WMCA +5.9% UK +194,400 jobs B5. Total Jobs 2m +54,200 jobs +95,000 Jobs +5.0% WMCA +4.9% UK +400,000 Jobs B6. Employment Rate 68.8% +0.4pp +1.5pp WMCA +2.7pp UK 73.9% +5.1pp FISCAL - Secure better for less from our public services F1. Income & Exp. Balance - 4.5bn + 0.6bn + 0.6bn 3 +15.4% No fiscal gap + 4.5bn PEOPLE - Improve Life Chances for all P1 Reduce % of people in top 10% most deprived areas 20% +0.02pp +0.09pp WMCA + 0.05pp Eng. 10% of people P2. Better employment, health and wider outcomes for people with complex needs To be developed P3. (i) Annual average earnings 27,151 +5.1% +4.9% WMCA +4.5% UK + 1,062 (ii) % of employees earning above UK living wage To be developed 1 The green shading illustrates indicators which have moved in a positive direction compared to the UK average or national (England) where UK averages are not available. The red shading indicates the reverse and orange indicates a growth rate in the right direction but less than the UK or national average. 2 The 2013 baseline figure was revised by the ONS from 19,423 to 20,137 3 Baseline data is 2015.

11 WMCA Economic Review 2017 Outcomes Measures of Success Where we are now Change over the last year Direction of Travel Relative to UK average since 2013 Scale of the Challenge SKILLS - Improve skill levels at all ages so that people have the skills and qualifications to access jobs P4. % of Working Age Population (WAP) with No Qualifications P5. % of WAP with NVQ 1 P6. % of WAP with NVQ 2 13% 329,400 people 12 % 302,600 people 16.8% 423,300 people -1.5 pp -36,200 people +0.1 pp + 3,700 people + 0.2 pp + 5,200 people -33,800 people -1.6 pp WMCA -1.3pp UK -9,200 people -0.5 pp WMCA -0.9pp UK - 7,300 people - 0.5 pp WMCA +0.9pp UK - 4.7 pp - 119,867 people Ahead of UK + 1 pp + 24,905 people Ahead of UK + 0.9 pp +21,905 people P7. % of WAP with NVQ 3 16.3% 410,400 people - 0.3pp - 8,700 people - 25,600 people -1.2 pp WMCA +0.1pp UK + 0.8 pp +21,290 people P8. % of WAP with NVQ 4+ 30.4% 774,300 people + 0.03pp + 7,700 people +86,500 people +2.8 pp WMCA +3.1 pp UK +7.6 pp +185,010 people P9. No. of Apprenticeships starts 42,040-1,190-2.8% + 6,030 +16.7% WMCA +15.9% Eng. +42,219 per annum P10. % of schools with an above national average GCSE pass rate A*-C including Maths and English 46% 48.5% -2.5pp WM Met 52.6% -6.6pp WM Met -4.1pp Eng. 4 + 7.5% schools P11. NEETs aged 16-18 4,420 4.4% -1,450-24.7% -1,950-30.5% WMCA -19.9% Eng. 4.2% -228 NEETs HEALTH - Better quality of life for all: improve health (inc. Mental health) and well being P12. Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) at Births Males & Females P13. Reduced Inequality in HLE for Males & Females Males (M) = 59.3 years Females (F) = 60.9 years -0.03 years +0.5 years To be developed -0.6 WM Met +0.2 Eng. -0.3 years WM Met +0.2 years Eng. 63.4 years 64.1 years P14. Health inequality gap by years between best and worse areas in LEP and SEP areas M = 7.4 years F = 9 years (WM Met) M = + 1.2 F = - 0.9 M = + 1.3 F = - 1.3 No gap Reduce gap by 7.4 years for males and 9 years for females P15. Gap in employment rate for those in contact with secondary mental health services and the overall employment rate 58.9 % -0.6pp +1.5pp WMCA +5pp Eng. Ahead of England + 8.3pp (67.2%) P16 Rates of suicide (per 100,000) 10.1 +0.4 +1.8 WMCA +0.3 Eng. No suicides - 410 suicides P17 - % of physically inactive adults 24.8% 22% + 90,524 participants 5 P18 - Offending rates 32,008 7.9 offenders per 1,000 population (2014) -1,364-4.1% -7,170 Below the - 7.6% 6 national average 4 Relative to Schools with GCSE pass rates above the national average (England). 5 No previous data available as first Active Lives Survey was issued in 2017. 6 Baseline is 2011.

WMCA Economic Review 2017 12 Outcomes Measures of Success Where we are now Change over the last year Direction of Travel Relative to UK average since 2013 Scale of the Challenge CRIME - Reduce offending and re-offending P19 - Re-offending rates (per 100,000) P20 No. of first time entrants to Youth Justice System aged 10-17 24.9% (2014) 454 +0.3pp +3.3% -0.1pp WMCA -1.2pp Eng. 7-8.2% WM Met -17.6% Eng. Ahead of England + 0.5pp -85 first-time entrants P21. Youth claimants aged 18-24 14,805 +1,515 +11.4% -11,240-43.2% WMCA -46.4% UK -32% -4,781 youth claimants P22. Claimant Count aged 18-64 67,705 +5,085 +8.1% -35,755-34.6% WMCA -37.5% UK - 27% - 16,957 claimants PLACE ACCESSIBILITY- Improve the connectivity of people to businesses to jobs and markets PL1. Broadband Connectivity PL2. % of residents able to access 3 or more strategic centres including Birmingham City Centre, accessible by public transport within 45 mins travel time in the am peak 93.7% 1.13m premises 41% (WM Met) +2.3pp -1.3pp +2.4pp WM Met +14pp UK 8-3.2pp 100% +75,793 premises 75% +34pp PL3. Journey time reliability To be developed 9 PL4. Mode Share of all Journeys: i). Mode Share of all journeys by car, public transport, cycling & walking ii). Percentage of car journeys non-single occupancy i) Car (64%) Public Transport (11%) Walk (22%) Cycle (1%) Taxi (2%) ii) 82% i) Car +1% Public Transport -2% Walk No change Cycle No change Taxi +1% i) No change 45% car mode share Car (- 19%) INFRASTRUCTURE - Improve the quantity of high quality readily available development sites PL5. No./ha available for housing developments PL6. No./ha available for employment development sites To be developed To be developed PL7. Land Uplift value To be developed SUSTAINABILITY - Resource efficient economy to stimulate new technology and business E1. CO 2 emitted within SEP area by transport, businesses and homes E2. No. of days poor air quality per year (rated 4 or higher on the Daily Air Quality Index) 21,564ktCO 2 (2014) - 167 ktco 2-0.8% + 1.6% WMCA 10-6.3% UK - 7,681 ktco 2 40 days + 12 days - 16 days WMCA -40 days -11 days UK 7 Baseline is 2011. 8 Baseline is 2011. 9 Transport for West Midlands is in the process of developing an effective monitoring approach for journey time reliability. 10 Baseline is 2011.

1 WMCA Economic Review 2017