North Carolina Local Governmental Employees Retirement System Report on the Actuarial Valuation Prepared as of December 31, 2015 October 2016
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Buck Consultants, LLC A Xerox Company 14911 Quorum Drive Suite 200 Dallas, TX 75254 October 13, 2016 P: 972.628.6800 F: 972.628.6801 www.xerox.com\hrconsulting Board of Trustees North Carolina Local Governmental Employees Retirement System 3200 Atlantic Avenue Raleigh, NC 27604 Members of the Board: We submit herewith our report on the actuarial valuation of the North Carolina Local Governmental Employees Retirement System (referred to as LGERS or the Local Plan ) prepared as of December 31, 2015. The report has been prepared in accordance with North Carolina General Statute 128-28(p). The primary purpose of the valuation report is to determine the required member and employer contribution rates, to describe the current financial condition of LGERS, and to analyze changes in such condition. In addition, the report provides information that the Office of the State Controller (OSC) requires for its Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) and it summarizes census data. Use of this report for any other purposes or by anyone other than OSC and its auditors may not be appropriate and may result in mistaken conclusions because of failure to understand applicable assumptions, methods, or inapplicability of the report for that purpose. The attached pages should not be provided without a copy of this cover letter. Because of the risk of misinterpretation of actuarial results, you should ask Buck to review any statement you wish to make on the results contained in this report. Buck will not accept any liability for any such statement made without prior review. The valuation is based upon membership data and financial information as furnished by the Retirement Systems Division and the Financial Operations Division and as summarized in this report. Although reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with the prior valuation, these elements have not been audited by Buck and we cannot certify as to the accuracy and completeness of the data supplied. The valuation is also based on benefit and contribution provisions as presented in this report. If you have reason to believe that the plan provisions are incorrectly described, that important plan provisions relevant to this valuation are not described, or that conditions have changed since the calculations were made, you should contact the authors of this actuarial report prior to relying on this information. The valuation is further based on the actuarial valuation assumptions, approved by the Board of Trustees, as presented in this report. We believe that these assumptions are appropriate and reasonable and also comply with the requirements of GASB Statement No. 67. We prepared this valuation in accordance with the requirements of this standard and in accordance with all applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP).
Board of Trustees October 13, 2016 The latest assumptions were adopted for use with the December 31, 2015 actuarial valuation, based on the experience study prepared as of December 31, 2014 and adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016. The economic assumptions with respect to investment yield, salary increase and inflation have been based upon a review of the existing portfolio structure as well as recent and anticipated experience. Where presented, references to funded ratio and unfunded accrued liability typically are measured on an actuarial value of assets basis. It should be noted that the same measurements using market value of assets would result in different funded ratios and unfunded accrued liabilities. Moreover, the funded ratio presented is appropriate for evaluating the need and level of future contributions but makes no assessment regarding the funded status of the plan if the plan were to settle (i.e. purchase annuities) for a portion or all of its liabilities. In various places in the report the results also show funded ratios and unfunded liabilities based upon varying sets of assumptions as well as market values of assets as that is required for certain disclosure information required per accounting rules or statutes. Where this has been done it has been clearly indicated. Future actuarial measurements may differ significantly from current measurements due to plan experience differing from that anticipated by the economic and demographic assumptions, increases or decreases expected as part of the natural operation of the methodology used for these measurements, and changes in plan provisions or applicable law. Because of limited scope, Buck performed no analysis of the potential range of such future differences, except for some limited analysis in financial projections or required disclosure information. The undersigned meet the Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to render the actuarial opinions contained in this report. This report has been prepared in accordance with all applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice, and we are available to answer questions about it. Respectfully submitted, Michael A. Ribble, FSA, EA, MAAA Principal, Consulting Actuary Larry Langer, ASA, EA, MAAA Principal, Consulting Actuary MAR:mg \NC\VAL\2015LOCALDOCX Page 2
Table of Contents Executive Summary... 1 Overview... 1 Purpose... 1 Key Takeaways... 2 Section 1: Principal Results... 3 Table 1 Summary of Principal Results... 3 Section 2: The Valuation Process... 5 Valuation Input: Membership Data... 5 Valuation Input: Asset Data... 8 Valuation Input: Benefit Provisions... 9 Valuation Input: Actuarial Assumptions... 10 Valuation Input: Funding Methodology... 11 Valuation Results: Actuarial Value of Assets... 12 Valuation Results: Actuarial Accrued Liability... 14 Valuation Results: Funded Ratio... 15 Valuation Results: Employer Contributions... 17 Valuation Results: Projections... 19 Valuation Results: Accounting Information... 21 Section 3: Membership Data... 22 Table 2 Active Member Data... 22 Table 3 Terminated Vested Member Data... 22 Table 4 Data for Members Currently Receiving Benefits... 23 Section 4: Asset Data... 24 Table 5 Market Value of Assets... 24 Table 6 Allocation of Investments by Category of the Market Value of Assets... 24 Table 7 Actuarial Value of Assets... 25 Table 8 Historical Asset Returns... 26 i
Table of Contents Section 5: Liability Results... 27 Table 9 Liability Summary... 27 Table 10 Participating Employers... 28 Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution... 29 Table 11 Calculation of the Actuarially Determined Employer Normal Contribution... 30 Table 12 Reconciliation of the Change in the Employer Normal Contribution Rates... 31 Table 13 Calculation of the New Amortization Base... 32 Table 14 Amortization Schedule for Unfunded Accrued Liability... 32 Table 15 Actuarially Determined Employer Contributions Rates for General Employees and Firefighters... 33 Table 16 Actuarially Determined Employer Contributions Rates for Law Enforcement Officers... 33 Table 17 Cost of Benefits Enhancements... 34 Section 7: Valuation Balance Sheet... 35 Table 18 Valuation Balance Sheet... 35 Section 8: Accounting Results... 36 Table 19 Number of Active and Retired Members... 36 Table 20 Schedule of Changes in Net Pension Liability (Asset)... 37 Table 21 Net Pension Liability (Asset)... 37 Table 22 Sensitivity of the Net Pension Liability (Asset)... 38 Table 23 Additional Information for GASB Statement No. 67... 38 Section 9: Projections... 39 Key Projection Assumptions... 39 Projected Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates... 40 Projected Funded Ratio... 42 ii
Table of Contents Appendices... 43 Appendix A Valuation Process and Glossary of Actuarial Terms... 43 Appendix B Detailed Tabulations of Member Data... 51 Appendix C Summary of Main Benefit and Contribution Provisions... 65 Appendix D Actuarial Assumptions and Methods... 72 Appendix E GASB 67 Fiduciary Net Position Projection... 79 Appendix F Additional Disclosures... 83 Appendix G Data for Section 2 Graphs... 85 Appendix H Detailed Table of Rates of Contributions Payable by Employers... 89 Appendix I Prior Service Contribution Rates and Estimated Dates of Liquidation by Employer... 119 Appendix J Participating Employers... 123 iii
Executive Summary Overview The North Carolina Retirement Systems Division (RSD) was established in 1941 to provide retirement benefits for public servants in the State of North Carolina. Today, under the management of the Department of State Treasurer, RSD administers eight public pension plans (defined benefit plans), three supplemental retirement plans (voluntary defined contributions plans), a health trust fund, a disability income plan, death benefit funds and a number of other benefit programs. As of December 31, 2015, the Retirement Systems defined benefit plans cover about 980,000 current and prior public servants in the state of North Carolina. During the fiscal year ending June 30, 2016, the Systems paid $5.7 billion in pensions to about 280,000 retirees. And as of June 30, 2016, the Systems assets were valued at $87 billion. Under the supplemental retirement plans, the amount of contributions in any given year is defined by law. The amount of benefits derived is dependent on the investment returns the individual achieves. Conversely, under the pension plans, the amount of the benefit paid to a member upon retirement, termination, death or disability is defined by law. The amount of contributions needed to fund these benefits cannot be known with certainty. In North Carolina, like other states, these contributions are paid during a public servant s career so that upon retirement, termination, death, or disability, there are funds available to pay these benefits. These amounts are determined through an actuarial valuation. Actuarial valuations are performed for each of the pension plans administered by RSD and the results are contained in actuarial valuation reports like this. The Local Governmental Employees Retirement System (referred to as LGERS or the Local Plan ) was established in 1939 and began accepting participating employers in 1945. LGERS is maintained for the employees of cities, towns, counties, boards, commissions and other entities of local government in North Carolina. LGERS has over $22 billion in assets and almost 250,000 members. This actuarial valuation report is our annual analysis of the financial health of LGERS. This report, prepared as of December 31, 2015, presents the results of the actuarial valuation of LGERS. Purpose An actuarial valuation is performed on LGERS annually as of the end of the calendar year. The actuary determines the amount of contributions to be made to LGERS during each member s career that, when combined with investment return, will be sufficient to pay for retirement benefits. In addition, the annual actuarial valuation is performed to: Determine the required contribution rates for LGERS employers, Explore why the results of the current valuation differ from the results of the valuation of the previous year, and Satisfy regulatory and accounting requirements. A detailed summary of the valuation process and a glossary of actuarial terms are provided in Appendix A. 1
Executive Summary Key Takeaways The actuarial valuation is performed each year to replace the estimates the actuary assumed for the prior valuation with the actual events that happened. This past year, as expected, some of the assumptions used in the prior valuation were not realized. Key results of the December 31, 2015 valuation as compared to the December 31, 2014 valuation were: Market value returns of 0.34% compared to 7.25% assumed Increase in covered payroll of 3.9% compared to approximately 3% expected Recent changes approved by the Board: o 0.105% cost-of-living adjustment at July 1, 2016 Changes in actuarial assumptions and methods in accordance with the latest experience study prepared as of December 31, 2014 and adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016 The Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy (ECRSP) adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016 requires that recommended contributions for general employees be set at 7.25% of payroll for fiscal year ending 2017 and will increase each fiscal year by 0.25% per year, with the additional adjustments described later in this report. When compared to the December 31, 2014 projections, the above resulted in: Higher actuarially determined employer contribution rates for fiscal year ending June 30, 2018 o 6.25% in the valuation compared to 6.20% in the baseline projection for general employees and firefighters o 7.84% in the valuation compared to 6.68% in the baseline projection for law enforcement officers Higher projected benefit amounts being accrued by active members LGERS is well funded compared to its peers. This is due to: Stakeholders working together to keep LGERS well-funded since inception A history of contributing the recommended contribution requirements Assumptions that in aggregate are more conservative than peers A funding policy that aggressively adjusts contribution rates to pay down unfunded liability An ad hoc cost-of-living adjustment, which typically only provides benefit increases when certain financial conditions are met, that supports the health of the system Modest changes in benefits when compared to peers Continued focus on these measures will be needed to maintain the solid status of LGERS well into the future. More details can be found later in this report. We encourage readers to start with Sections 1 and 2 and refer to other sections for additional details as needed. 2
Section 1: Principal Results This report, prepared as of December 31, 2015, presents the results of the annual valuation of the system. The principal results of the valuation and a comparison with the preceding year s results are summarized below. Table 1: Summary of Principal Results Valuation results as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Active Members Number 124,974 123,184 Reported Compensation $ 5,541,839,498 $ 5,331,287,565 Valuation Compensation* $ 5,869,461,590 $ 5,652,306,474 Retired Members and Survivors of Deceased Members Currently Receiving Benefits Number 63,110 60,408 Annual Allowances $ 1,181,580,927 $ 1,108,688,628 Number of Participating Employers 886 884 Assets Actuarial Value (AVA) $ 23,649,311,273 $ 22,682,380,725 Market Value $ 22,403,836,820 $ 22,744,942,754 Actuarial Accrued Liability (AAL) $ 24,360,119,869 $ 22,718,130,124 Unfunded Accrued Liability (AAL-AVA) $ 710,808,596 $ 35,749,399 Funded Ratio (AVA/AAL)** 97.1% 99.8% Unfunded Initial Prior Service Liability $ 33,440,798 $ 35,749,399 * Reported compensation adjusted to reflect the assume rate of pay increase prior to the valuation date. ** The Funded Ratio on a Market Value of Assets basis is 92.0% at December 31, 2015. 3
Section 1: Principal Results This report, prepared as of December 31, 2015, presents the results of the annual valuation of the system. The principal results of the valuation and a comparison with the preceding year s results are summarized below. Table 1: Summary of Principal Results (continued) Valuation results as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Results for Fiscal Year Ending 6/30/2018 6/30/2017 Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution (ADEC), as a percentage of payroll General Employees and Firefighters Normal Cost 4.67% N/A Accrued Liability 1.58% N/A Total 6.25% 6.39% Impact of Experience Study N/A -0.92% Impact of Legislative Changes N/A 0.03% Final ADEC N/A 5.50% Law Enforcement Officers Normal Cost 6.26% N/A Accrued Liability 1.58% N/A Total 7.84% 6.87% Impact of Experience Study N/A 0.22% Impact of Legislative Changes N/A 0.03% Final ADEC N/A 7.12% Board Approved Contribution under the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy (ECRSP) General Employees and Firefighters 7.50% 7.25% Law Enforcement Officers 8.25% 8.00% Current Funding in Effect at 7/1/2016 7/1/2015 Employer Contribution Rate as a percentage of payroll General Employees and Firefighters 7.25% 6.67% Law Enforcement Officers 8.00% 7.15% Preliminary Reserve for Undistributed Gains/(Losses) General Employees and Firefighters 1.00% 0.28% Law Enforcement Officers 0.16% 0.28% 4
Section 2: The Valuation Process The following diagram summarizes the inputs and results of the actuarial valuation process. INPUT Member Data Asset Data Benefit Provisions Actuarial Assumptions Funding Methodology RESULTS Actuarial Value of Assets Actuarial Accrued Liability Net Actuarial Gain or Loss Funded Ratio Employer Contributions Projections Accounting Information A more detailed description of the valuation process is provided in Appendix A. Valuation Input: Membership Data As with any estimate, the actuary collects information that we know now. Under the actuarial valuation process, current information about LGERS members is collected annually by the Retirement Systems Division staff at the direction of the actuary. Membership data will assist the actuary in estimating benefits that could be paid in the future. Information about benefit provisions and assets held in the trust as of the valuation date is also collected. The member information the actuary collects includes data elements such as current service, salary and benefit group identifier for members that have not separated service, and actual benefit amounts and form of payment for members that have separated service. Data elements such as gender and date of birth are used to determine when a benefit might be paid and for how long. 5
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Input: Membership Data (continued) The table below provides a summary of the membership data used in this valuation compared to the prior valuation. Number as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Active members 124,974 123,184 Terminated members and survivors of deceased members entitled to benefits but not yet receiving benefits 59,289 55,298 Retired members and survivors of deceased members currently receiving benefits 63,110 60,408 Total 247,373 238,890 Commentary: The number of active members increased by 1.5% from the previous valuation date. The increase in the active population results in more benefits accruing, but also more contributions supporting the system. The number of retired members and survivors of deceased members currently receiving benefits increased by 4.5% from the previous valuation date. The increase in retiree population is consistent with expectations. Graph 1: Active Members The graph below provides a history of the number of active members and reported compensation over the past five years. Commentary: Reported compensation has increased by 3.9%. Covered payroll is expected to increase by approximately 3% annually in the future. Payroll that is increasing faster than we assume results in more benefits accruing than we anticipate, but also more contributions supporting the system. 6
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Input: Membership Data (continued) Graph 2: Retired Members and Survivors of Deceased Members The graph below provides a history of the number of retired members and survivors of deceased members and benefit amounts payable over the past five years. Commentary: The number of retired members and survivors of deceased members and the benefits paid to these members has been increasing steadily, as expected based on plan assumptions. A detailed summary of the membership data used in this valuation is provided in Section 3 and Appendix B of this report. 7
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Input: Asset Data LGERS assets are held in trust and are invested for the exclusive benefit of plan members. The Market Value of Assets is $22.4 billion as of December 31, 2015 and $22.7 billion as of December 31, 2014. The investment return for the market value of assets for calendar year 2015 was 0.34%. Graph 3: Market Value of Assets and Asset Returns The graph below provides a history of the market value of assets and asset returns over the past five years. Commentary: Returns were less than the 7.25% assumed rate of return, resulting in higher required contributions than anticipated as of the December 31, 2014 baseline projections presented in the December 31, 2014 actuarial report. Graph 4: Allocation of Investments by Category The graph below provides the breakdown of the market value of assets at December 31, 2015 by asset category. * Real Estate, Alternatives, Inflation and Credit Commentary: Based on historical market returns, the current asset allocation, the current investment policy, and the expectation of future asset returns, as reviewed in the last experience study, the 7.25% discount rate used in this valuation is reasonable and appropriate. A detailed summary of the market value of assets is provided in Section 4 of this report. 8
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Input: Benefit Provisions Benefit provisions are described in North Carolina General Statues, Chapter 128. The valuation reflects the following change in benefit provisions from the prior year s valuation: 0.105% cost-of-living adjustment at July 1, 2016 Highlights of the benefit provisions are described below. An unreduced retirement allowance is payable to non-law enforcement members who retire from service: after attaining age 65 and five years of creditable service; after attaining age 60 and 25 years of creditable service; or after attaining 30 years of creditable service An unreduced retirement allowance is payable to law enforcement members who retire from service: after attaining age 55 and five years of creditable service; or after attaining 30 years of creditable service The unreduced retirement allowance is equal to 1.85% of a member s final average compensation multiplied by the number of years of creditable service. A reduced retirement allowance is payable to non-law enforcement members who retire from service: after attaining age 60 and five years of creditable service; or after attaining age 50 and 20 years of creditable service A reduced retirement allowance is payable to firefighters and rescue squad workers who retire from service after attaining age 55 and five years of creditable service. A reduced retirement allowance is payable to law enforcement members who retire from service after attaining age 50 and 15 years of creditable service. Ancillary benefits are also payable upon the death or disability of a member. LGERS does not provide for explicit cost of living increases as part of the benefit package. Instead, increases may be provided if certain financial conditions are met. More details on cost-of-living increases are provided in Graph 5. Commentary: Many Public Sector Retirement Systems in the United States have undergone pension reform where the benefits of members (current retirees and active or future members) have been reduced. Because of the well-funded status of LGERS due to the Board of Trustees setting contributions equal to the actuarially required contribution, benefit cuts have not been needed in North Carolina. 9
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Input: Benefit Provisions (continued) As noted previously, cost-of-living increases are periodically considered by the Board of Trustees to the extent that certain financial conditions are met. Specifically, benefit allowance increases are generally considered when the trust experiences sufficient investment gains to cover the additional actuarial accrued liabilities created by providing the cost-of-living adjustment (generally, limited to the lesser of the CPI increase yearover-year or 4%). In addition to employers consistently contributing the actuary s recommended contribution, this benefit increase policy has helped keep costs manageable when compared to other public sector retirement systems in the United States. That being said, it is important to provide a benefit in retirement that does not get eroded by inflation. Graph 5: Cost-of-Living Increase and CPI-U History The graph below provides a 30-year history of the allowance increases for LGERS and the national CPI-U. 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Total Allowance Increase* National CPI-U * Allowance increases are effective at July 1 the following year Commentary: Generally this allowance increase policy has helped retirees maintain purchasing power while helping to moderate contribution increases during times of down markets. A detailed summary of the benefit provisions is provided in Appendix C of this report. Valuation Input: Actuarial Assumptions Actuarial assumptions bridge the gap between the information that we know with certainty as of the valuation date (age, gender, service, pay, and benefits of the members) and what may happen in the future. The actuarial assumptions of LGERS are reviewed at least every five years. Based on this review, the actuary will make recommendations on the demographic and economic assumptions. Demographic assumptions describe future events that relate to people such as retirement rates, termination rates, disability rates, and mortality rates. Economic assumptions 10
Section 2: The Valuation Process describe future events that relate to the assets of LGERS such as the interest rate, salary increases, the real return, and payroll growth. The latest assumptions were adopted for use with the December 31, 2015 actuarial valuation, based on the experience study prepared as of December 31, 2014 and adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016. Valuation Input: Funding Methodology The Funding Methodology is the payment plan for LGERS and is composed of the following three components: Actuarial Cost Methods allocate costs to the actuarial accrued liability (i.e. the amount of money that should be in the LGERS fund) for past service and normal cost (i.e. the cost of benefits accruing during the year) for current service. The Board of Trustees has adopted Entry Age Normal as its actuarial cost method Develops normal costs that stay level as a percent of payroll Asset Valuation Methods smooth or average the market value returns over time to alleviate contribution volatility that results from market returns. Asset returns in excess of or less than the expected return on market value of assets reflected over a five-year period Assets corridor: not greater than 120% of market value and not less than 80% of market value Amortization Methods determine the payment schedule for unfunded actuarial accrued liability (i.e. the difference between the actuarial accrued liability and actuarial value of assets) Payment level: the payment is determined as a level dollar amount, similar to a mortgage payment Payment period: a 12-year closed amortization period was adopted for fiscal year ending 2018. A new amortization base is created each year based on the prior year s experience The valuation reflects the change in methodology for determining liquidation of unfunded initial prior service accrued liability, approved by the Board of Trustees in January 2012. The outstanding balance of the unfunded initial prior service accrued liability and the date of liquidation of accrued liability will be estimated as of June 30 each year. These estimates must be recalculated annually and adjusted according to each employer s actual experience. Seven (7) employers were granted relief at 7/1/2016 Four (4) employers are expected to be granted relief at 7/1/2017 based on this valuation The actuarial assumptions, actuarial cost method, amortization method, and asset valuation method were updated since the prior year s valuation in accordance with the latest experience study prepared as of December 31, 2014 and adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016. A detailed summary of the actuarial assumptions and methods is provided in Appendix D of this report. 11
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Actuarial Value of Assets In order to reduce the volatility that investment gains and losses can have on required contributions and funded status of LGERS, the Board adopted an asset valuation method to determine the Actuarial Value of Assets used for funding purposes. The Actuarial Value of Assets is $23.6 billion as of December 31, 2015 and $22.7 billion as of December 31, 2014. Graph 6: Actuarial Value and Market Value of Assets The graph below provides a history of the market value and actuarial value of assets over the past five years. Commentary: The market value of assets is lower than the actuarial value of assets, which is used to determine employer contributions. This indicates that there are unrecognized asset losses to be recognized in future valuations. The actuarial value of assets would have been $23.6 billion as of December 31, 2015 under the asset valuation method used in the prior valuation. 12
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Actuarial Value of Assets (continued) Graph 7: Asset Returns The graph below provides a history of the market value and actuarial value of asset returns over the past five years. Commentary: The investment return for the market value of assets for calendar year 2015 was 0.34%. The actuarial value of assets smoothes investment gains and losses. The new asset valuation method adopted with the experience study assumptions re-set the actuarial value of assets to the market value of assets at December 31, 2014, effective for the December 31, 2015 valuation. Lower than expected market returns in 2015 resulted in an actuarial value of asset return for calendar year 2015 of 5.87% and an asset loss of $311 million during 2015. The actuarial value of asset return for calendar year 2015 prior to the asset valuation method change was 5.92%, which would have resulted in an asset loss of $298 million during 2015. A detailed summary of the Actuarial Value of Assets is provided in Section 4 of this report. 13
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Actuarial Accrued Liability Using the provided membership data, benefit provisions, and actuarial assumptions, the future benefit payments of LGERS are estimated. These projected future benefit payments are discounted into today s dollars using the assumed rate of investment return assumption to determine the Present Value of Future Benefits (PVFB) of LGERS. The PVFB is an estimate of the current value of the benefits promised to all members as of a valuation date. Once the PVFB is developed, an actuarial cost method is used to allocate the PVFB. Under the actuarial cost method, the PVFB is allocated to past, current and future service, respectively known as the actuarial accrued liability (AAL), normal cost (NC) and present value of future normal costs (PVFNC). The AAL is also referred to as the amount of money LGERS should ideally have in the trust. The NC is also referred to as the cost of benefits accruing during the year. Graph 8: Actuarial Accrued Liability The graph below provides a history of the actuarial accrued liability over the past five years. Commentary: The AAL increased from $22.7 billion to $24.4 billion during 2015. LGERS is an open plan, which means that new members enter the plan each year. In an open plan, liabilities are expected to grow from one year to the next as more benefits accrue and the membership approaches retirement. Assumption changes increased the AAL by $406 million at December 31, 2014. Legislation increased the AAL by $13 million at December 31, 2015. A detailed summary of the AAL is provided in Section 5 of this report. 14
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Funded Ratio The funded ratio is a measure of the progress that has been made in funding the plan as of the valuation date. It is the ratio of how much money LGERS actually has in the fund to the amount LGERS should have in the fund. The actuarial cost method was changed to the entry age normal cost method from a frozen entry age cost method since the prior valuation. Separate initial unfunded prior service cost accrued liabilities will still be maintained for employers who join the system prior to November 1, 2015. Under the frozen entry age cost method, the funding target is the present value of future benefits, which includes the cost of service for past, current and future service. Under the entry age normal cost method, the funding target is the actuarial accrued liability, which includes the cost of service for only past service. Graph 9: Present Value of Future Benefits, Actuarial Accrued Liability and Actuarial Value of Assets The graph below provides a history of the present value of future benefits and actuarial accrued liability compared to the actuarial value of assets over the past five years. Commentary: The present value of future benefits has increased over the past five years. The present value of future benefits increased from $28.5 billion at December 31, 2014 to $29.4 billion at December 31, 2015. 15
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Funded Ratio (continued) Graph 10: Funded Ratios The graph below provides a history of the funded ratio on a market and actuarial basis over the past five years. Commentary: The actuarial value of assets basis is used for computing contributions to alleviate contribution volatility. The funded ratio on an actuarial basis decreased from 99.8% at December 31, 2014 to 97.1% at December 31, 2015. Funded ratios for valuations prior to December 31, 2015 are based on accrued liabilities calculated under the frozen entry age cost method. Under this cost method, the AAL will track closely to assets. 16
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Employer Contributions The North Carolina General Statutes provide that the contributions of employers shall consist of a normal contribution and an accrued liability contribution. An additional initial accrued liability contribution rate is to be set for each employer on the basis of the prior service credits allowable to the employees thereof, and is determined on the basis of separate initial valuations for each employer. The December 31, 2014 valuation suggested that the preliminary employer contribution rate be set at 6.39% of payroll for general employees and firefighters and 6.87% of payroll for law enforcement officers at July 1, 2016. Subsequently, the Board of Trustees set contributions at 7.25% of payroll for general employees and firefighters and 8.00% of payroll for law enforcement officers at July 1, 2016, in order to account for the experience study recent legislation passed into law and the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy. As a result of the December 31, 2015 valuation, the preliminary actuarial determined employer contribution rate is 6.25% of payroll for general employees and firefighters and 7.84% of payroll for law enforcement officers. 17
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Employer Contributions (continued) Graph 11: Employer Actuarially Determined Contribution Rates The graph below provides a history of actuarially determined employer contribution rates over the past five years. * Subject to the impact of future legislative changes effective during that fiscal year ** Includes impact of the experience study Commentary: Starting with the contribution for fiscal year ending 2017, the actuarially determined employer contribution rates are split into the normal cost rate and the accrued liability rate. The normal cost rate is the employer s portion of the cost of benefits accruing after reducing for the member contribution, offset for the 6% of pay contribution the members make. The accrued liability rate is the payment toward the unfunded liability needed to pay off the pension debt over 12 years. The 12-year period is a short period for Public Sector Retirement Systems in the United States, with most Systems using a period of 30 years or more to pay off the pension debt. The shorter period results in higher contributions and more benefit security. For contributions prior to fiscal year ending 2017, the actuarially determined employer contribution rates consisted of only a normal cost rate. All liability and asset gains (losses) served to directly decrease (increase) this rate. These contribution rates do not include an employer s additional initial contribution for unfunded prior service cost accrued liability. A detailed summary of the actuarially determined employer contribution rates is provided in Section 6 of this report. 18
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Projections Projections of contribution requirements and funded status into the future can be helpful planning tools for stakeholders. This section provides such projections. The projections of the actuarial valuation are known as deterministic projections. Deterministic projections are based on one scenario in the future. The baseline deterministic projection is based on December 31, 2015 valuation results as assumptions. Key Projection Assumptions Valuation interest rate of 7.25% for all years 7.25% investment return on market value of assets Actuarial assumptions and methods as described in Appendix D. All future demographic experience is assumed to be exactly realized. The contribution rate under the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy (ECRSP) is contributed until fiscal year ending 2022. The actuarially determined contribution rate is contributed for fiscal years ending 2023 and beyond. 0% increase in the total active member population No cost-of-living adjustments granted Future pay increases based on long-term valuation The ECRSP adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016 requires that recommended contributions for general employees be set at 7.25% of payroll for fiscal year ending 2017 and will increase each fiscal year by 0.25% per year, with the following additional adjustments, if applicable: (1) If the underlying actuarially determined employer contribution rate (ADEC) for a given fiscal year is 50% higher than the scheduled employer contribution rate for that fiscal year, the scheduled employer contribution rate for the current and future fiscal years increases 0.50%; (2) If the underlying ADEC for a given fiscal year is 50% lower than the scheduled employer contribution rate for that fiscal year, the scheduled employer contribution rate for the current and future fiscal year decreases 0.50%; (3) If the General Assembly grants any additional COLA beyond the amount of COLA granted by the Board, increases the multiplier for active employees, or changes the benefit structure in a way that has a cost to the system, the schedule of contributions for the current and future fiscal years will be increased by the cost of the benefit enhancement. The cost of any COLA granted by the Board under the authority allowed by statute will not impact the scheduled contribution rates. Contribution rates for law enforcement officers will be 0.75% higher than contribution rates for general employees. In addition, we have provided two alternate deterministic projections. The first alternate deterministic projection is based on the same assumptions as the baseline deterministic projection except that it assumes a 0.0% asset return for calendar year 2016. The second alternate deterministic projection is based on the same assumptions as the baseline deterministic projection except that it assumes a 14.50% asset return for calendar year 2016. 19
Section 2: The Valuation Process Finally, stochastic projections, where hundreds of projections based on varying rates of return are performed and results are ordered, are periodically performed by the investment management division and shared with the Retirement Board and RSD staff. Graph 12: Projected Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates The graph below provides the actuarially determined employer contributions rates for general employees and firefighters projected for 15 years, as well as the board approved stable contribution under the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy. Commentary: The actuarially determined employer contribution rate trends to around 5%, which is the level of the cost of benefits accrued, or the long term employer cost of LGERS when there is no pension debt. The contribution rates shown in the graph above do not include an employer s additional initial contribution for unfunded prior service cost accrued liability. 20
Section 2: The Valuation Process Valuation Results: Projections (continued) Graph 13: Projected Funded Ratio The graph below provides the funded ratio projected for 15 years. Commentary: Note that if the 7.25% return under the Baseline Projection is achieved, the funded ratio reaches the long term target of 100% within 15 years. This is a direct result of using a 12 year period to pay off the pension debt. A detailed summary of the deterministic projections is provided in Section 9 of this report. Valuation Results: Accounting Information The Governmental Account Standards Board (GASB) issues statements which establish financial reporting standards for defined benefit pension plans and accounting for pension expenditures and expenses for governmental employers. The valuation has been prepared in accordance with the parameters of Statement No. 67 of the GASB and all applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice. The Net Pension Liability (Asset) under GASB 67 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2016, is $2,122,335,000 (compared to $(448,794,000) for fiscal year ending June 30, 2015). The required financial reporting information for LGERS under GASB No. 67 can be found in Section 8 of this report. 21
Section 3: Membership Data The Retirement Systems Division provided membership data as of the valuation date for each member of LGERS. The membership data assists the actuary in estimating benefits that could be paid in the future. The tables below provide a summary of the membership data used in this valuation. Detailed tabulations of data are provided in Appendix B. Table 2: Active Member Data Member Average Average Reported Count Age Service Compensation General Employees 92,808 45.86 9.97 $ 3,978,088,211 Firefighters 11,387 38.44 10.38 537,638,844 Law Enforcement Officers 20,779 39.29 11.24 1,026,112,443 Total 124,974 44.09 10.22 $ 5,541,839,498 The table above includes members not in receipt of benefits who had reported compensation in 2015. Table 3: Terminated Vested Member Data Member Average Average Accumulated Count Age Service Contributions General Employees 50,264 45.33 3.92 $ 593,212,951 Firefighters 2,598 37.16 4.18 31,621,594 Law Enforcement Officers 6,427 40.17 5.36 104,800,064 Total 59,289 44.41 4.09 $ 729,634,609 The table above includes members not in receipt of benefits who did not have reported compensation in 2015. 22
Section 3: Membership Data Table 4: Data for Members Currently Receiving Benefits Retired Members (Healthy at Retirement) General Employees 38,868 69.95 $ 695,390,744 Firefighters 2,061 65.75 63,126,276 Law Enforcement Officers 7,141 65.07 189,259,314 Total 48,070 69.04 $ 947,776,334 Retired Members (Disabled at Retirement)* General Employees 6,355 62.48 $ 102,179,056 Firefighters 1,103 61.29 30,289,530 Law Enforcement Officers 1,410 56.52 28,744,689 Total 8,868 61.38 $ 161,213,275 Survivors of Deceased Members Annual Member Average Retirement Count Age Allowances General Employees 4,694 71.71 $ 50,906,079 Firefighters 347 76.01 5,162,525 Law Enforcement Officers 1,131 70.10 16,522,714 Total 6,172 71.66 $ 72,591,318 Grand Total 63,110 68.22 $ 1,181,580,927 * Includes retired members reported as disabled in a prior valuation and not subsequently reported as returned to work. 23
Section 4: Asset Data Assets are held in trust and are invested for the exclusive benefit of LGERS members. The tables below provide the details of the Market Value of Assets for the current and prior years valuations. Table 5: Market Value of Assets Asset Data as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Beginning of Year Market Value of Assets $ 22,744,942,754 $ 21,784,255,100 Contributions 795,382,032 769,285,248 Benefit Payments (1,213,496,597) (1,145,663,992) Investment Income 77,008,631 1,337,066,398 Net Increase/(Decrease) (341,105,934) 960,687,654 End of Year Market Value of Assets $ 22,403,836,820 $ 22,744,942,754 Estimated Net Investment Return on Market Value 0.34% 6.19% Table 6: Allocation of Investments by Category of the Market Value of Assets Asset Data as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Allocation by Dollar Amount Public Equity $ 9,520,339,674 $ 9,980,785,405 Fixed Income (LTIF) 6,307,373,789 6,768,539,963 Cash and Receivables 440,275,643 395,965,430 Other* 6,135,847,714 5,599,651,956 Total Market Value of Assets $ 22,403,836,820 $ 22,744,942,754 Allocation by Percentage of Asset Value Public Equity 42.5% 43.9% Fixed Income (LTIF) 28.2% 29.8% Cash and Receivables 2.0% 1.7% Other* 27.3% 24.6% Total Market Value of Assets 100.0% 100.0% * Real Estate, Alternatives, Inflation and Credit 24
Section 4: Asset Data In order to reduce the volatility that investment gains and losses can have on the required contributions and funded status of LGERS, the Board adopted an asset valuation method to determine the Actuarial Value of Assets used for funding purposes. The table below provides the calculation of the Actuarial Value of Assets at the valuation date. Table 7: Actuarial Value of Assets Asset Data as of 12/31/2015 Beginning of Year Market Value of Assets $ 22,744,942,754 Contributions 795,382,032 Benefit Payments (1,213,496,597) Net Cash Flow (418,114,565) Expected Investment Return 1,633,851,697 Expected End of Year Market Value of Assets 23,960,679,886 End of Year Market Value of Assets 22,403,836,820 Excess of Market Value over Expected Market Value of Assets (1,556,843,066) 80% of 2015 Asset Gain/(Loss) (1,245,474,453) 60% of 2014 Asset Gain/(Loss) N/A 40% of 2013 Asset Gain/(Loss) N/A 20% of 2012 Asset Gain/(Loss) N/A Total Deferred Asset Gain/(Loss) (1,245,474,453) Preliminary End of Year Actuarial Value of Assets 23,649,311,273 Final End of Year Actuarial Value of Assets (not less than 80% and not greater than 120% of Market Value) 23,649,311,273 Estimated Net Investment Return on Actuarial Value 5.87% Commentary: The actuarial value of assets smooths investment gains/losses, resulting in less volatility in the employer contribution. The asset valuation method was changed during the experience study from a method that calculated the actuarial value of assets as 20% of the market value of assets plus 80% of the expected actuarial value of assets to a method that recognizes asset returns in excess of or less than the expected return on the market value of assets over a five-year period. The new asset valuation method re-set the actuarial value of assets to the market value of assets at December 31, 2014, effective for the December 31, 2015 valuation. Lower than expected market returns in 2015 resulted in an actuarial value of asset return for calendar year 2015 of 5.87% and an asset loss of $311 million during 2015. The actuarial value of assets would have been $ 23,595,633,052 as of December 31, 2015 under the asset valuation method used in the prior valuation. 25
Section 4: Asset Data The valuation assumes that the funds will earn a 7.25% asset return. The table below provides a history of the Actuarial Value and Market Value of Asset returns. Table 8: Historical Asset Returns Actuarial Market Calendar Value of Value of Year Asset Return Asset Return 2006 9.19% 11.41% 2007 9.03% 8.36% 2008 2.97% -19.47% 2009 4.92% 14.94% 2010 6.10% 11.53% 2011 5.33% 2.14% 2012 6.51% 11.79% 2013 7.61% 12.21% 2014 7.32% 6.19% 2015 5.87% 0.34% Average 6.47% 5.46% Range 6.22% 34.41% Commentary: The average investment return recognized for purposes of determining the annual change in contribution each year is the actuarial value of assets return. Currently, the average actuarial return of 6.47% tracks average market return of 5.46% rather well. But the range of returns is markedly less 6.22% versus 34.41%. This results in much lower employer contribution volatility using the actuarial value of assets versus market, while ensuring that the actuarial needs of LGERS are met. 26
Section 5: Liability Results Using the provided membership data, benefit provisions, and actuarial assumptions, the Retirement System s future benefit payments are estimated. These projected future benefit payments are discounted into today s dollars using the assumed rate of investment return assumption to determine the Present Value of Future Benefits. The Present Value of Future Benefits is allocated to past, current and future service, respectively known as the actuarial accrued liability, normal cost and present value of future normal costs. The table below provides these liability numbers for the current and prior years valuations. Table 9: Liability Summary Valuation Results as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 (a) Present Value of Future Benefits (1) Active Members $ 16,119,533,334 $ 16,532,382,356 (2) Terminated Members 1,459,269,218 1,345,626,216 (3) Members Currently Receiving Benefits 11,802,159,195 10,578,753,552 (4) Total $ 29,380,961,747 $ 28,456,762,124 (b) Present Value of Future Normal Costs (1) Employee Future Normal Costs $ 2,783,789,343 (2) Employer Future Normal Costs 2,237,052,535 (3) Total $ 5,020,841,878 $ 5,738,632,000 (c) Actuarial Accrued Liability: (a4) - (b3) $ 24,360,119,869 $ 22,718,130,124 (d) Actuarial Value of Assets $ 23,649,311,273 $ 22,682,380,725 (e) Unfunded Accrued Liability: (c) - (d) $ 710,808,596 $ 35,749,399 (f) Unfunded Initial Prior Service Liability* $ 33,440,798 $ 35,749,399 (g) Unfunded Accrued Liability to be Amortized over 12 Years (e) - (f) $ 677,367,798 N/A *The unfunded initial prior service liability balance as of December 31, 2015 and the applicable employer contribution rate as of July 1, 2017 is provided in Appendix I, for participating employers with remaining initial prior service liability as of December 31, 2015. Appendix I also provides a non-binding estimated date of liquidation of the liability based on this valuation. Commentary: The actuarial cost method was changed to the entry age normal cost method from a frozen entry age cost method since the prior valuation. Separate initial unfunded prior service accrued liabilities will still be maintained for employers who join the system prior to November 1, 2015. Under the frozen entry age cost method, the funding target is the present value of future benefits, which includes the cost of service for past, current and future service. The present value of future normal costs at December 31, 2014 is equal to the portion of the present value of future benefits that is not currently funded and, therefore, the accrued liability is equal to the actuarial value of assets plus the remaining initial prior service liability. For the December 31, 2015 valuation, the funding target is the actuarial accrued liability calculated under the entry age normal cost method, which includes the cost of service for only past service. 27
Section 5: Liability Results The Estimated Date of Liquidation of Initial Prior Service Liability, shown in Appendix I, must be recalculated annually and adjusted according to each unit s actual experience. The estimated date for liquidation of the liability as of the valuation date does not constitute a guarantee that a local unit will complete the liquidation as of the estimated date, for the reason that actual experience may not match the projections used to create the estimate. The table below provides a summary of the participating employers in the current and prior years valuations. Table 10: Participating Employers Valuation Date 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Total Participating Employers 886 884 Total Participating Employers with an Unfunded Accrued Liability Balance at Valuation Date 96 101 Employers Granted Relief at 7/1/2016 based on Prior Valuation (7/1/2015 at 12/31/2014) 7 5 Employers with Expected Relief at 7/1/2017 based on Current Valuation (7/1/2016 at 12/31/2014) 4 7 28
Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution The actuarially determined employer contribution consists of a normal cost rate and an accrued liability rate. The normal cost rate is the employer s portion of the cost of benefits accruing during the year after reducing for the member contribution. The accrued liability rate is the payment toward the unfunded accrued liability in order to pay off the unfunded accrued liability over 12 years. The Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy (ECRSP) adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016 requires that recommended contributions for general employees be set at 7.25% of payroll for fiscal year ending 2017 and will increase each fiscal year by 0.25% per year, with the following additional adjustments, if applicable: (1) If the underlying actuarially determined employer contribution rate (ADEC) for a given fiscal year is 50% higher than the scheduled employer contribution rate for that fiscal year, the scheduled employer contribution rate for the current and future fiscal years increases 0.50%; (2) If the underlying ADEC for a given fiscal year is 50% lower than the scheduled employer contribution rate for that fiscal year, the scheduled employer contribution rate for the current and future fiscal year decreases 0.50%; (3) If the General Assembly grants any additional COLA beyond the amount of COLA granted by the Board, increases the multiplier for active employees, or changes the benefit structure in a way that has a cost to the system, the schedule of contributions for the current and future fiscal years will be increased by the cost of the benefit enhancement. The cost of any COLA granted by the Board under the authority allowed by statute will not impact the scheduled contribution rates. Contribution rates for law enforcement officers will be 0.75% higher than contribution rates for general employees. The ECRSP would result in a recommended contribution rate of 7.50% of payroll for general employees and firefighters and 8.25% of payroll for law enforcement officers for fiscal year ending 2018. 29
Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution The table below provides the calculation of the actuarially determined employer contribution for the current valuation. The contribution rates shown in the table below do not include an employer s additional initial contribution for unfunded prior service liability. Table 11: Calculation of the Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Valuation Date 12/31/2015 ADEC for Fiscal Year Ending 6/30/2018 Normal Cost Rate Calculation (a) Employer Future Normal Cost General Employees and Firefighters $ 1,666,555,043 Law Enforcement Officers 570,497,492 (b) Present Value of Future Salary General Employees and Firefighters $ 37,283,110,575 Law Enforcement Officers 9,113,378,467 (c) Normal Cost Rate: (a) / (b) General Employees and Firefighters 4.47% Law Enforcement Officers 6.26% (d) Expenses General Employees and Firefighters 0.20% Law Enforcement Officers 0.00% (e) Total Normal Cost Rate: (c) + (d) General Employees and Firefighters 4.67% Law Enforcement Officers 6.26% Accrued Liability Rate Calculation (f) Total Annual Amortization Payments* $ 92,686,098 (g) Valuation Compensation 5,869,461,590 (h) Accrued Liability Rate: (f) / (g) 1.58% Total ADEC (e) + (h) General Employees and Firefighters 6.25% Law Enforcement Officers 7.84% *See Table 14 for more detail 30
Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution A detailed table of contribution rates payable by participating employers is provided in Appendix H. In addition to the actuarially determined employer contribution, as determined by the December 31, 2015 valuation (see Table 11 for more details), the unfunded initial prior service liability contribution rate is reflected for those employers that have not liquidated this liability as of June 30, 2017 (see Appendix I for more details). The table below provides a reconciliation of the current and prior years actuarially determined employer contributions. Table 12: Reconciliation of the Change in the Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates General Employees and Firefighters Law Enforcement Officers Fiscal year ending June 30, 2017 Preliminary ADEC (based on December 31, 2014 valuation) 6.39% 6.87% Impact due to Experience Study (0.92%) 0.22% Impact due to COLA 0.03% 0.03% Fiscal year ending June 30, 2017 Final ADEC 5.50% 7.12% Non-Investment (Gain)/Loss 0.02% (0.01%) Change Due to Investment (Gain)/Loss 0.73% 0.73% Fiscal year ending June 30, 2018 Preliminary ADEC (based on December 31, 2015 valuation) 6.25% 7.84% 31
Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Amortization methods determine the payment schedule for the unfunded actuarial accrued liability. LGERS adopted a 12-year closed amortization period for fiscal year ending 2018. A new amortization base is created each year based on the prior year s experience. The tables below provide the calculation of the new amortization base and the amortization schedule for the current year s valuation. Table 13: Calculation of the New Amortization Base Calculation as of 12/31/2015 (a) Unfunded Actuarial Accrued Liability* $ 677,367,798 (b) Prior Years' Outstanding Balances $ 0 (c) New Amortization Base: (a) - (b) $ 677,367,798 (d) New Amortization Payment $ 92,686,098 * Does not include the unfunded initial prior service liability Table 14: Amortization Schedule for Unfunded Accrued Liability Date Established 12/31/2015 Original Outstanding Annual Balance Balance Payment December 31, 2015 $ 677,367,798 $ 677,367,798 $ 92,686,098 Total $ 677,367,798 $ 92,686,098 32
Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution The tables below provide a history of the actuarially determined employer contribution rates. Table 15: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates for General Employees and Firefighters Change Valuation Rate Preliminary due to Final Actual Date Effective ADEC Legislation* ADEC Contribution 12/31/2015 7/1/2017 6.25% N/A N/A N/A 12/31/2014 7/1/2016 6.39% -0.89% 5.50% 7.25% 12/31/2013 7/1/2015 6.52% 0.15% 6.67% 6.67% 12/31/2012 7/1/2014 6.94% 0.01% 6.95% 7.07% 12/31/2011 7/1/2013 7.07% 0.00% 7.07% 7.07% *The change due to legislation for the contribution in effect at 7/1/2016 includes a 0.92% decrease in the ADEC due to the experience study and a 0.03% increase in the ADEC due to the cost-of-living adjustment at 7/1/2016. Table 16: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates for Law Enforcement Officers Change Valuation Rate Preliminary due to Final Actual Date Effective ADEC Legislation* ADEC Contribution 12/31/2015 7/1/2017 7.84% N/A N/A N/A 12/31/2014 7/1/2016 6.87% 0.25% 7.12% 8.00% 12/31/2013 7/1/2015 7.00% 0.15% 7.15% 7.15% 12/31/2012 7/1/2014 7.42% 0.01% 7.43% 7.55% 12/31/2011 7/1/2013 7.55% 0.00% 7.55% 7.55% *The change due to legislation for the contribution in effect at 7/1/2016 includes a 0.22% increase in the ADEC due to the experience study and a 0.03% increase in the ADEC due to the cost-of-living adjustment at 7/1/2016. 33
Section 6: Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution The table below provides the cost of benefit enhancements calculated at the current and prior years valuations. Table 17: Cost of Benefits Enhancements Calculation as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Increase in the ADEC for a 1% COLA* 0.30% 0.25% Increase in the ADEC for a 0.01% Increase in the Defined Benefit Formula** 0.36% 0.34% * The 1% COLA calculated at the December 31, 2015 valuation would be effective July 1, 2017. The COLA would be paid in full to retired members and survivors of deceased members on the retirement roll on July 1, 2016 and would be prorated for retired members and survivors of deceased members who commence benefits after July 1, 2016 but before June 30, 2017. ** A corresponding increase in retirement allowances would be paid in the event of an increase in the defined benefit formula. 34
Section 7: Valuation Balance Sheet The valuation balance sheet shows the assets and liabilities of LGERS. The items shown in the balance sheet are present values actuarially determined as of the relevant valuation date. The table below provides the valuation balance sheet for the current year and prior year. Table 18: Valuation Balance Sheet Balance Sheet as of 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 Assets Current Actuarial Value of Assets Annuity Savings Fund $ 4,783,077,870 $ 4,593,484,091 Pension Accumulation Fund 18,866,233,403 18,088,896,634 Total $ 23,649,311,273 $ 22,682,380,725 Future Member Contributions to the Annuity Savings Fund $ 2,783,789,343 $ 2,792,586,773 Prospective Contributions to the Pension Accumulation Fund Normal Contributions $ 2,237,052,535 $ 2,946,045,227 Unfunded Accrued Liability Contributions 710,808,596 35,749,399 Undistributed Gain Contributions 363,720,791 129,070,646 Total $ 3,311,581,922 $ 3,110,865,272 Total Assets $ 29,744,682,538 $ 28,585,832,770 Liabilities Annuity Savings Fund Past Member Contributions $ 4,783,077,870 $ 4,593,484,091 Future Member Contributions 2,783,789,343 2,792,586,773 Total Contributions $ 7,566,867,213 $ 7,386,070,864 Pension Accumulation Fund Benefits Currently in Payment $ 11,789,387,592 $ 10,511,594,386 Benefits to be Paid to Current Active Members 10,011,935,339 10,491,937,708 Reserve for Increases in Retirement Allowances effective July 1, 2016 (July 1, 2015 for December 31, 2014) 12,771,603 67,159,166 Reserve for Undistributed Gains/(Losses) 363,720,791 129,070,646 Total Benefits Payable $ 22,177,815,325 $ 21,199,761,906 Total Liabilities $ 29,744,682,538 $ 28,585,832,770 35
Section 8: Accounting Results This section contains the accounting information for Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 67 for fiscal year ending June 30, 2016 based on a valuation date of December 31, 2015. Please note that GASB Statement No. 67 (Financial Reporting for Pension Plans) is applicable for fiscal years ending 2014 and later. The June 30, 2016 total pension liability presented in this section was determined by an actuarial valuation as of December 31, 2015, based on the assumptions, methods and plan provisions described in this report. The actuarial cost method used to develop the total pension liability is the Entry Age Normal Cost method, as required by GASB Statement No. 67. GASB Statement No. 67 set forth certain items of information to be disclosed in the financial statements of the Plan. The tables below provide a distribution of the number of employees by type of membership. Table 19: Number of Active and Retired Members as of December 31, 2015 Group Number Retired members and survivors of deceased members currently receiving benefits 63,110 Terminated members and survivors of deceased members entitled to benefits but not yet receiving benefits 59,289 Active members 124,974 Total 247,373 36
Section 8: Accounting Results GASB Statement No. 67 set forth certain items of information to be disclosed in the financial statements of the Plan. The tables below provide the schedule of changes in Net Pension Liability (Asset). Table 20: Schedule of Changes in Net Pension Liability (Asset) Calculation as of June 30, 2016 Total Pension Liability Service Cost $ 684,288,000 Interest 1,707,699,000 Changes of Benefit Terms 12,581,000 Difference between Expected and Actual Experience 50,205,000 Change of Assumptions 183,019,000 Benefit Payments, including Refund of Member Contributions (1,251,918,000) Net Change in Total Pension Liability $ 1,385,874,000 Total Pension Liability - Beginning of Year $ 23,496,136,000 Total Pension Liability - End of Year $ 24,882,010,000 Plan Fiduciary Net Position Employer Contributions $ 414,168,000 Member Contributions 375,572,000 Net Investment Income 175,189,000 Benefit Payments, including Refund of Member Contributions (1,251,918,000) Administrative Expenses (3,926,000) Other 3,248,000 Net Change in Fiduciary Net Position $ (287,667,000) Plan Fiduciary Net Position - Beginning of Year $ 23,047,342,000 Plan Fiduciary Net Position - End of Year $ 22,759,675,000 Table 21: Net Pension Liability (Asset) Calculation as of June 30, 2016 June 30, 2015 Total Pension Liability $ 24,882,010,000 $ 23,496,136,000 Plan Fiduciary Net Position 22,759,675,000 23,047,342,000 Net Pension Liability (Asset) $ 2,122,335,000 $ 448,794,000 Plan Fiduciary Net Position as a Percentage of the Total Pension Liability 91.47% 98.09% 37
Section 8: Accounting Results The table below is the sensitivity of the net pension liability to changes in the discount rate. Table 22: Sensitivity of the Net Pension Liability (Asset) at June 30, 2016 to Changes in the Discount Rate 1% Decrease Current 1% Increase Discount Rate 6.25% 7.25% 8.25% Net Pension Liability (Asset) 5,037,291,000 2,122,335,000 (312,453,000) The discount rate used to measure the total pension liability was 7.25%. The projection of cash flows used to determine the discount rate assumed that for fiscal year ending 2017 to fiscal year ending 2022, System contributions will follow the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy as adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016, and for fiscal years ending 2023 and beyond, System contributions will be based on the actuarially determined contribution rates. Based on those policies, the System s fiduciary net position was projected to be available to make all projected future benefit payments of current plan members. Please see Appendix E for additional detail. The table below provides the methods and assumptions used to calculate the actuarially determined contribution rate. Table 23: Additional Information for GASB Statement No. 67 Valuation Date 12/31/2015 Actuarial Cost Method Amortization Method Amortization Period Asset Valuation Method Actuarial Assumptions Entry Age Level dollar closed 12 years Investment Rate of Return* 7.25% Projected Salary Increases** 3.50% - 7.75% *Includes Inflation of 3.00% **Includes Inflation and Productivity of 3.50% Cost-of-living Adjustments Asset returns in excess of or less than the expected return on market value of assets reflected over a five-year period (not greater than 120% of market value and not less than 80% of market value) N/A 38
Section 9: Projections Projections of contribution requirements and funded status into the future can be helpful planning tools for stakeholders. This section provides such projections. The projections of the actuarial valuation are known as deterministic projections. Deterministic projections are based on one scenario in the future. The baseline deterministic projection is based on December 31, 2015 valuation results as assumptions. Key Projection Assumptions Valuation interest rate of 7.25% for all years 7.25% investment return on market value of assets Actuarial assumptions and methods as described in Appendix D. All future demographic experience is assumed to be exactly realized. The contribution rate under the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy (ECRSP) is contributed until fiscal year ending 2022. The actuarially determined contribution rate is contributed for fiscal years ending 2023 and beyond. 0% increase in the total active member population No cost-of-living adjustments granted Future pay increases based on long-term valuation The ECRSP adopted by the Board of Trustees on January 21, 2016 requires that recommended contributions for general employees be set at 7.25% of payroll for fiscal year ending 2017 and will increase each fiscal year by 0.25% per year, with the following additional adjustments, if applicable: (4) If the underlying actuarially determined employer contribution rate (ADEC) for a given fiscal year is 50% higher than the scheduled employer contribution rate for that fiscal year, the scheduled employer contribution rate for the current and future fiscal years increases 0.50%; (5) If the underlying ADEC for a given fiscal year is 50% lower than the scheduled employer contribution rate for that fiscal year, the scheduled employer contribution rate for the current and future fiscal year decreases 0.50%; (6) If the General Assembly grants any additional COLA beyond the amount of COLA granted by the Board, increases the multiplier for active employees, or changes the benefit structure in a way that has a cost to the system, the schedule of contributions for the current and future fiscal years will be increased by the cost of the benefit enhancement. The cost of any COLA granted by the Board under the authority allowed by statute will not impact the scheduled contribution rates. Contribution rates for law enforcement officers will be 0.75% higher than contribution rates for general employees. In addition, we have provided two alternate deterministic projections. The first alternate deterministic projection is based on the same assumptions as the baseline deterministic projection except that it assumes a 0.0% asset return for calendar year 2016. The second alternate deterministic projection is based on the same assumptions as the baseline deterministic projection except that it assumes a 14.50% asset return for calendar year 2016. 39
Section 9: Projections The graph below provides the actuarially determined employer contribution rates projected for 15 years, as well as the board approved stable contribution under the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy. Projected Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates for General Employees and Firefighters 40
Section 9: Projections The graph below provides the actuarially determined employer contribution rates projected for 15 years, as well as the board approved stable contribution under the Employer Contribution Rate Stabilization Policy. Projected Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution Rates for Law Enforcement Officers 41
Section 9: Projections The graph below provides the funded ratio projected for 15 years. Projected Funded Ratio 42
Appendix A: Valuation Process and Glossary of Actuarial Terms Purpose of an Actuarial Valuation The majority of Public Sector Retirement Systems in the State of North Carolina are defined benefit (DB) retirement systems. Under a DB Retirement System, the amount of benefits payable to a member upon retirement, termination, death or disability is defined in various contracts and legal instruments and is based, in part, on the member s years of credited service and final compensation. The amount of contribution needed to fund these benefits cannot be known with certainty. A primary responsibility of the Board of Trustees of a Retirement System is to establish and monitor a funding policy for the contributions made to the Retirement System. While somewhat uncommon, in some jurisdictions, contributions are made by the plan sponsor as benefits come due. This is known as pay-as-you-go financing. More commonly, contributions for benefits are made in advance during the course of active employment of the members. This is known as actuarial pre-funding. For example, the State of North Carolina mandates for the Teachers and State Employees Retirement System (the State Plan ) that on account of each member there shall be paid into the pension accumulation fund by employers an amount equal to a certain percentage of the actual compensation of each member to be known as the normal contribution and further the normal rate of contribution shall be determined by the actuary after each valuation. The Actuarial Valuation Process The following diagram summarizes the inputs and results of the actuarial valuation process. A narrative of the process follows the diagram. The reader may find it worthwhile to refer to the diagram from time to time. INPUT Member Data Asset Data Benefit Provisions Actuarial Assumptions Funding Methodology RESULTS Actuarial Value of Assets Actuarial Accrued Liability Net Actuarial Gain or Loss Funded Ratio Employer Contributions Projections Accounting Information Under the actuarial valuation process, current information about Retirement System members is collected annually by staff at the direction of the actuary, namely member data, asset data and information on benefit provisions. Member data is collected for each member of the Retirement System. The member data will assist the actuary in estimating benefits that could be paid in the future. The member information the actuary collects to estimate the amount of benefit includes elements such as current service, salary and benefit group identifier for members that have not separated service; for those that have, the actual benefit amounts are collected. The actuary collects information such as gender and date of birth to determine when a benefit might be paid and for how long. The actuary collects summary information about assets as of the valuation date and information on cash flows for the year ending on the valuation date. Information about 43