Consumer Confidence Tracker February 2016 PREPARED BY: Luke Reaper & Anita Mullan J.7158
Introduction 2
Introduction This report presents the findings of the February 2016 phase of the Behaviour & Attitudes Consumer Confidence Tracker. Survey results for this phase are based on a sample of 1,000 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland. All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face Barometer by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines. Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between the 3 rd - 13 th of February, 2016. 3
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Key Highlights 5
Key Highlights As a context the macro economy remains positive. As we head into the General Election consumer confidence in the economy for the year ahead remains positive. While all areas of the country are positive towards the economic prospects, Dubliners are significantly more optimistic, followed by other urban centers with rural residents being the least positive. Only 14% of the population feel the country will be worse off in the coming year. Despite the uncertainties over the make up of the next Government, election promises may be helping the sandwich generation and blue collar workers to see the light at the end of the economic tunnel. In line with stablisation in consumer confidence, attitudes towards personal finances in the year ahead have become more positive. However those in Dublin continue to be much more positive regarding any expected income increases. While consumers remain cautious about their purchasing of goods and services in the year ahead a steady improvement in disposition to spend is evident. Overall net savings have also hit a period of non-movement, as the majority of consumers expect their savings to remain the same over the coming 12 months. Overall 1 in 4 expect the value of their personal assets to increase over the next 12 months. Overall Irish consumer confidence is positive and a solidity is evident. However it should not be forgotten that certain sections of society are still registering low optimism. 6
The Macro Context
GDP & GNP remain positive 50000 GDP Vs GNP 48,849 50,131 50,904 45000 42,773 42,813 41,901 41,529 41,884 42,218 42,496 41,919 42,589 43,449 43,392 43,793 42,710 42,687 43,089 44,216 42,713 42,771 43,868 43,682 45,41045,446 45,619 44,912 41,803 42,839 42,311 40000 39,336 37,179 37,145 37,835 37,921 38,100 35000 35,751 35,093 34,875 34,109 34,305 33,774 35,709 35,776 34,922 34,992 35,078 34,651 34,236 35,384 35,436 36,109 35,939 35,611 30000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: www.cso.ie Quarterly National Accounts * Q4 2015 results not yet available
The number in employment is increasing 1,996,400 1,974,000 1,953,600 1,921,400 1,891,900 1,893,600 1,886,100 1,857,300 1,861,300 1,847,700 1,841,800 1,845,600 1,848,900 1,841,300 1,836,200 1,825,000 1,845,600 1,899,300 1,869,900 1,909,800 1,888,200 1,901,600 1,926,900 1,938,900 1,958,000 1,929,500 1,958,000 1,929,500 1,983,000 +56,000 (vs. Q3 2014) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *Source: www.cso.ie/quarterly National Household survey Q4 2015 data not yet available 9
While those on the live register continues to decline The Live Register Unemployment in Ireland -10.28% Overall Change vs. January 2015 20 15 10 % Rate of Unemployment 12.0 13.8 14.6 14.7 13.6 11.5 9.6 8.6 5 131,127 189,667 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (f) -7.11% vs. January 2015-12.33% vs. Oct 2014 8.6% Current Rate of unemployment. (vs. 9.6% in 2015) Source: www.cso.ie/persons on live register * Live Register Total data Source: www.cso.ie/quarterly National Household survey 10
Nov '00 Sept '07 Nov '07 Feb '08 Apr '08 Sept '08 Nov '08 Feb '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Nov '09 Feb '10 Apr '10 Sep '10 Nov '10 Feb '11 Apr '11 Sep '11 Nov '11 Feb '12 Apr '12 Sep '12 Nov '12 Feb '13 Apr '13 Sep '13 Nov '13 Feb '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Sep '14 Nov '14 Feb '15 Apr'15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Jan '16 Live Register numbers appear to be stabilising 500000 450000 400000 350000 351,000 371,000 449,600 448,600 438,800 439,200 439,200 434,700 433,000 436,000 438,300 436,000 435,200 432,300 426,000 425,400 428,800 426,000 414,300 406,200 404,515 398,300 392,700 370,050 367,100 363,628 355,600 349,500 359,076 320,794 321,802 316,586 300000 278,300 250000 245,800 200000 171,300 166,000 186,300 198,400 150000 136,962 100000 50000 0 * The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal & casual workers who work up to 3 days per week Source: www.cso.ie/persons on live register 11
General government surplus/deficit is also balancing out 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-39.9-10.0-10.3-7.1-5.8-4.7 Q2-14.9-7.8-8.2-4.3-2.9-0.8 Q3-32.2-25.0-7.2-6.0-4.3-2.2 Q4-42.7-7.3-6.6-5.6-2.9 Source: www.cso.ie/indicators/default 12
Balance of Payments has stabilised 3718 3500 3125 2500 1500 500-500 -1500 1625 960 781-1032 -1228-1323 2704 1879 1326 632 557-169 -1234 2687 2839 2,446 1700 1526 1598 1370 777 616-354 -1155 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2500 -2382 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: www.cso.ie/balance of international payments * Q4 data not yet available 13
Consumer Confidence Findings
As we head into the General Election consumer confidence for the year ahead remains positive.
Consumer Confidence for the next 12 months remains high, but has plateaued 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 -50-58 -54-65 -74-76 -81-88 -86-93 -91-20 Looking Back vs. Looking Forward (Net Diff: Positive-Negative) -4-18 -7-25 -36-39 -27-45 -44-44 -31-52 -50-58 -60-46 -64-51 -53-56 -74-70 -59-57 -69-64 -62-72 -82-86 0 Net diff looking forward Dublin +40 Other Urban +24 Rural +18 6 6 4 2 1 12 14 7 7 12 7 25 26 20 20 Mar May Sept Nov Mar July Nov Jan Apr July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept Dec Feb Apr July Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report Q.1 Q.2 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year? And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? 16
While all areas of the country are positive towards the country s economic prospects, Dubliners are significantly more optimistic, followed by other urban centres with rural residents being the least positive Base: All Adults 16+ February 2016 % Better off The same Worse off 40 46 14 Rural: +18% Other Urban: +24% Dublin: +40% A 3 speed economy still exists, with those living in Dublin being most positive. *Net Diff (GAP) +26% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16 Gap = -15-59 -68-49 -58-52 -32 +3 +15 +26 Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? 17
The sandwich generation (aged 35-54) and blue collar sector (especially Outside Dublin) have begun to see the light at the end of the tunnel Base: All Adults 16+ % Net Difference (Better Worse off) 40% 47% 36% 32% 32% 31% 26% 27% 26% 27% 25% 21% 17% 9% Total Male Female -34 35-54 55+ Dublin Outside Dublin Irish Non Irish Dublin ABC1F+ Dublin C2DEF- Outside Dublin ABC1F+ Outside Dublin C2DEF- NET Diff 25% 25% 25% 29% 21% 26% 31% 23% 24% 34% 40% 20% 38% 11% Blue Collar Consumers outside Dublin register the lowest confidence. Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? 18
Personal Finances attitudes towards personal finances have become more positive Base: All Adults 16+ February 2016 % Higher 22 Rural: +1% The same 60 Other Urban: -1% Dublin: +13% Dublin is much more positive towards personal finances. Lower 18 *Net Diff (GAP) +4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16 Gap = -15-59 -68-49 -58-52 -32-22 -6 +4 Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months? 19
Personal Finances Looking Forward YOY Base: All Adults 16+ Expect it to be. Long Term 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb April July Sep Feb April Sept Nov Feb Higher The same Lower % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 0 5 7 7 7 8 13 13 11 17 14 12 16 14 18 16 19 22 25 30 28 30 31 35 34 41 42 49 52 51 54 55 62 61 59 59 65 60 58 58 59 64 63 57 59 51 47 38 34 35 34 29 22 24 25 25 17 18 13 12 13 Gap +12 +18 +15-21 -59-50 -56-52 -43-25 -6-36 -21-22 -13-6 -11-9 +2 +4 Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months? 20
Savings Net future savings are expected to remain the same over the next 12 months Base: All Adults 16+ February 2016 % More 18 Rural -8% The same 62 Dublin: +8% Lower 20 Other Urban: -5% *Net Diff (GAP) -2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16 Gap -1-5 -34-56 -48-50 -48-40 -24-13 -2 Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months? 21
Personal Assets 1 in 4 consumers expect the value of their personal assets to increase over the next 12 months Base: All Adults 16+ February 2016 % Higher 25 Rural: +13% The same 66 Dublin: +23% Lower 8 *Net Diff (GAP) +17% Other Urban: +17% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16 Gap +33 +20-25 -53-43 -41-31 -18-1 +14 +17 Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year? 22
Purchasing Goods and Services Despite consumers remaining cautious about purchasing goods and services in the year ahead, a steady improvement in disposition to spend is evident Base: All Adults 16+ February 2016 % More The same 15 66 Rural : -4% Dublin: -1% Less 19 Other Urban: -4% *Net Diff (GAP) -3% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb 16 Gap +7 +5-29 -63-47 -52-45 -37-19 -13-3% Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year? 23
Balance Of Opinion in Summary The Year Ahead Expectations in regard to asset value, purchases, and savings. Long Term Short Term 40 20 0-20 -40 6-10 -23 9-12 -28 21-8 -12 31 4-5 33 7-1 20 5-5 -25-29 -34-53 -43-47 -5-41 -50-4 -13-4 -13-20 1-19 -24 14-13 -13-10 -9-8 -29-29 -30-31 -34-33 3-1 -16-16 -20-23 20-12 -11 10 9-16 -16-19 -18 16 17-3 -7-2 -6-60 -80 Asset Value Purchases Savings -56-63 -48-52 -100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Yearly Averages Dec Feb Apr Jul Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb 2013 2014 2015 2016 24
Discretionary income is positive but mainly for Dubliners and ABC1s Base: All Adults 18+ 83.97 Dublin 73.06 Outside Dublin 51.61 ABC1 64.04 C2DE 52.67 50.94 61.29 62.32 46.86 46.21 46.30 50.43 49.64 53.13 53.84 57.42 2001 2004 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Feb '15 April '15 Sept ' 15 Nov '15 Feb '16 Long Term Short Term Q.10 About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on? 25