Montana Manufacturing: Issues & Outlook 2016 Todd A. Morgan, CF
Montana Manufacturers
Montana Manufacturing Employment: ~23,430 Labor Income by Sector Petroleum & Coal Products 17% Other 18% Chemicals & Nonmetallic Minerals 13% Labor Income: ~$1.2 billion Sales: ~$11.3 billion Sources: BEA-Dept of Commerce; and BBER estimates Food & Beverage 14% Metals 12% Wood & Furniture 16% Machinery 6% Computers, Electronics & Appliances 4%
Changes in Montana & U.S. Manufacturing Employment 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Montana United States 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *2015 estimated
Montana Manufacturing Output Real value has increased longer term $11.3 billion in 2014; 2015 probably lower 15 Highly influenced by petroleum products Billions of 2015 Dollars 12 9 6 3 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Montana Manufacturing Exports Account for 8 to 10% of total output 1,200 1,000 Top export destinations: Canada 45% Korea 9% China 8% Japan 5% Mexico 5% Taiwan 4% Belgium 2% Million $ 800 600 400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: Census Bureau, wisertrade.org
Montana Manufacturing Exports 2014 total: $1.01 billion Computers, Electronics & Appliances 6% Other 7% Chemicals 31% Declining: Chemicals Machinery 12% Machinery Petroleum prods. Transport equip. Growing: Beverages Food Wood prods. Fabricated metals Nonmetallic Minerals 8% Transportation Equipment 10% Petroleum & Coal Products 7% Food & Beverages 10% Wood Products & Furniture 4% Metals 8% Sources: Census Bureau, wisertrade.org
Pending Trade Agreements Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) 11 countries + U.S. Account for about 70% of MT exports Largest: chemicals, fuels, consumer goods Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (T-TIP) European Union + U.S. Account for about 12% of MT exports Largest: chemicals, high-tech instruments
2015-2016 Montana Manufacturers Survey annual survey conducted in November open-ended & multi-choice questions current & coming year 184 firms participated cooperation rate 96%
Property Tax & Montana Manufacturers Which property tax class impacts your business most? 51% Class 8: business equipment 29% Class 4: land & improvements 9% don t know 5% both/same How have property taxes impacted your business? 45% significant negative impact/cost 33% none/neutral/minimal impact 13% just another expense/pass it on/plan for it
Property Tax & Montana Manufacturers Your firm s property tax over the past 3 years? 61% increase 7% decrease 19% same 13% don t know Property taxes for 2016? 41% increase 1% decrease 33% same 25% don t know As a result of the 2015 re-appraisal? 46% increase 5% decrease 14% same 35% don t know
Major Issues for Montana Manufacturers 2015 Labor, skilled workers: 36% of firms General economy, markets, competition, sales: 24% 2016 Labor, skilled workers: 25% of firms. General economy, markets, competition, sales: 27%
Overall Outlook by Sector All Manufacturing Wood, paper & furniture Food & beverage 2016 2015 Chemicals, petroleum & coal Machinery All other 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 Declining/Improving
Montana Forest Products 2015/2016 U.S. homebuilding growth continues Strong dollar, weaker demand from China, interest rate hike, end of SLA = challenges to U.S. wood products industry Private & public timber availability is the major constraint for most Montana mills o o o Private land ownership changes Many small, young trees in private forest inventory Federal forest management issues
Montana Wood Products Outlook Overall Sales 2016 2015 Profit Production Employment 0.35 0.5 0.65 Declining/Improving
Overall Outlook by City Helena Great Falls Missoula 2016 2015 Billings Bozeman Butte Kalispell Lewistown Montana 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Declining/Increasing
Lewis & Clark County Manufacturing Labor Income by Sector Transportation Equipment 33% Other Nondurable Goods 24% Labor Income: $48.5 million - 2014 Employment: 995 Printing 5% Wood & Furniture 7% Fabricated Metals 5% Food & Beverage 12% Other Durable Goods 16% Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Million $ $50 Lewis & Clark County Manufacturing Jobs 1,000 $45 950 $40 900 $35 850 $30 800 $25 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment 750 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Helena Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Declining/Improving
Cascade County Manufacturing Labor Income by Sector Food & Beverages 42% Labor Income: $75.5 million - 2014 Employment: 1,355 Furniture & Wood Products 8% Other Durable Goods 19% Other Nondurable Goods 29% Printing 6% Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Cascade County Manufacturing Million $ $80 $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Great Falls & Havre Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Declining/Improving
Missoula County Manufacturing Labor Income by Sector Wood & Furniture 18% Food & Beverage 19% Other Nondurable Goods 6% Labor Income: $108.9 million 2014 Employment: 2,415 Chemicals 16% Other Durable Goods 41% Sources: BEA-Dept of Commerce and BBER estimates
Missoula County Manufacturing Million $ $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ravalli County Manufacturing Million $ $39 $38 $37 $36 $35 $34 $33 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Missoula Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Declining/Improving
Yellowstone County Manufacturing Labor Income by Sector Petroleum Products 55% Chemicals 4% Labor Income: $319 million - 2014 Employment: 3,955 Other Durable Goods 15% Food & Beverage 9% Other Nondurable Goods 4% Fabricated Metals 13% Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Million $ $350 Yellowstone County Manufacturing Jobs 4,000 $300 3,800 $250 3,600 $200 3,400 $150 3,200 $100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment 3,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Billings Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Declining/Improving
Gallatin County Manufacturing Labor Income by Sector Plastics & Rubber 4% Food & Beverages 11% Other Nondurable Goods 9% Non-Metallic Minerals 10% Wood & Furniture 6% Labor Income: $152 million - 2014 Employment 3,436 Fabricated Metals 15% Other Durable Goods 33% Computers, Electronics & Appliances 13% Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Gallatin County Manufacturing Million $ $160 Jobs 4,000 $140 3,500 $120 3,000 $100 2,500 $80 2,000 $60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment 1,500 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bozeman Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Declining/Improving
Silver Bow County Manufacturing Labor Income by Sector Printing 2% Other Nondurable Goods 4% Wood Products 1% Labor Income: $44.1 million - 2014 Employment: 724 Beverages 13% Food 3% Fabricated Metals 3% Other Durable Goods 75% Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Million $ $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 Silver Bow County Manufacturing 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Butte Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Declining/Improving
Flathead County Manufacturing Wood & Furniture 45% Labor Income by Sector Other Durable Goods 30% Labor Income: $176 million - 2014 Employment: 3,277 Computers & Electronics 6% Other Nondurable Goods 7% Food & Beverages 4% Fabricated Metals 10% Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau
Flathead County Manufacturing Million $ $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Kalispell Area Manufactures Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Declining/Improving
Fergus County Manufacturing Million $ $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Lewistown Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Declining/Improving
Hill County Manufacturing Million $ $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Worker Earnings Employment Jobs 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Havre & Great Falls Area Manufacturing Outlook Overall Employment 2016 2015 Sales Production Profit 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Declining/Improving
Thank you! Todd.Morgan@business.umt.edu