Data Digest: Florida June 2012
Broad indicators of economic activity for Florida and the United States continue to improve; however, Florida s pace of recovery remains below that of the nation. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 120 Coincident Economic Indicator 115 110 105 100 95 United States Florida 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
Total employment in Florida has been slowly increasing over the last two years. In January, however, the state shed over 35,000 jobs. Florida regained most of that loss in February and March, but lost nearly 3,000 jobs in April. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
All industries lost jobs during the economic downturn with construction being the hardest hit. Most sectors are adding jobs with business services, leisure and hospitality, financial services, transportation/warehousing/utilities, and retail trade gaining more than the state average. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida -52.8 Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present The state as a whole shed 11.5% of total employment from peak to trough, and has gained only 2.5% of the jobs back. -24.6-18.7-16.1-60 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20-13.0-14.6-14.8-11.3-10.6-11.5-5.9-7.4-3.0-1.0 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 3.1 2.5 5.4 5.7 4.9 8.5 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4
3-month average annualized percent change Momentum improved for the major sectors of Florida s economy in April. Business services moved from slipping to expanding, while construction contracted further than it did last month. About Employment Momentum 6 4 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida Other services Expanding Leisure and hospitality Transportation/ Warehouse/ Utilities 2 Information Financial services Business services 0-2 Federal and Local government state government Manufacturing Education and health care -4 Wholesale trade Retail trade -6 Construction Contracting Slipping -8-8 -6-4 -2 0 2 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
Job losses in Florida and most of its metro areas were significant during the economic downturn, but almost all areas have shown positive gains from their trough. W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida -18.1-16.8-16.6-15.1-13.7-13.0-13.1 Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present -12.2-11.2-11.7-10.9-11.5-10.5-10.2-10.6-9.4-9.2-7.4-7.9-7.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.8 7.2-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 5 10 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6
3-month average annualized percent change Florida s larger metro areas shifted slightly up into the expanding quadrant in April. Most of the smaller metro areas employment remained in the contracting quadrant. About Employment Momentum 10 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida Vero Beach Expanding 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 Panama City Gainesville Pensacola Tallahassee St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Melbourne Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Sarasota Tampa-St. Pete Lakeland Ocala West Palm Beach Orlando Ft. Myers Jacksonville Naples -6 Daytona -8-10 -12 Punta Gorda Contracting Slipping -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
3-month average percent change, annualized Employment momentum for April reentered the expanding quadrant after a month of slipping. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 Expanding 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Contracting Slipping -10-8 -7-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
Florida s unemployment rate continues to decline but remains above the national rate. Gainesville, Jacksonville, Naples, Panama City, Pensacola, and Tallahassee all have unemployment rates below the national average. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates 11 10 9 8 Florida United States 7 6 5 4 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to decline and remain well below their peak from early 2009. 4-week moving average Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida May 19, 2012 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during 2004 2006. The current number of initial claims remains elevated. 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10
Consumer confidence in Florida has been declining since the beginning of the year and sales tax revenues have been increasing during the same time period. However, in April, revenues declined slightly. 1966 = 100 100 Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 20 95 90 85 80 Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale) 15 10 5 75 0 70 65 60 Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending. -5-10 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 11
The Southeast Purchasing Managers Index, which measures regional manufacturing activity, increased to 63.5 in April. Florida s component fell dramatically from 78 in March to 56.4 in April. 70 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 The Florida component of the SE PMI was 56.4 in. 35 30 25 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12
Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices fell again, albeit slowly, in 2011. March home prices in Tampa and Miami continue to show a slight uptick. Jan 2000 = 100 300 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through March 2012 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 Miami Tampa Composite 20 100 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13
The number of new home permits in Florida and nationally experienced a slight pullback in activity in April. New home construction remains near historic lows in Florida and the United States. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 30,000 180,000 160,000 25,000 140,000 120,000 20,000 100,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 14
Sales growth for Florida Realtors and homebuilders fell in April, according to the latest results from the Atlanta Fed s Real Estate Poll. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 FRB Atlanta Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current Home Sales vs. Year-ago Levels 0.8 0.6 0.4 Realtors Homebuilders 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 15
Office vacancy rates rose in the first quarter of 2012 for Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami. Rates fell in Fort Lauderdale and stabilized in Orlando. Percent 24 22 20 18 16 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa Office Vacancy Rate Q1 2012 14 12 10 8 6 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16
Industrial availability rates throughout Florida declined in the first quarter of 2012 except for in Jacksonville. Percent 24 Industrial Availability Rate Q1 2012 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q2 2006 through Q3 2007. Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm 18