Goodyear India BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `487 `582. 4QFY2016 Result Update Tyres. 3-year Daily Price Chart.

Similar documents
Goodyear India BUY. Company Update. CMP Target Price `515 `631. Company Update Tyres. 3-year Daily Price Chart. Key Financials

Goodyear India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `326 `374. 1QCY2012 Result Update Tyres. Key financials

Amber Enterprises India Ltd

Ambuja Cements ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `207 `233. 3QCY2015 Result Update Cement. Quarterly results (Standalone)

Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care

Maruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `9,315 Target Price `10,820. 1QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

ITC ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `257 Target Price `284. 3QFY2017 Result Update FMCG. Investment Period 12 Months

Hindustan Media Ventures

ACC BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,397 Target Price `1,630. 3QCY2015 Result Update Cement

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

MRF BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `9,407 Target Price `11,343. Company Update Automobile. Key financials

Maruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `6,705 Target Price `8,552. 2QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart

Coal India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `338 Target Price `380. Outlook and valuation. 2QFY2016 Result Update Mining

Parag Milk Foods BUY. Performance Update CMP. `256 Target Price `330. 2QFY2019 Result Update Dairy Products. Investment Period 12 Months

Garware Wall Ropes ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `550 Target Price `618. 2QFY2017 Result Update Textile. Investment Period 12 months

Rallis India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `237 Target Price - 1QFY2018 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

MRF BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `40,703 Target Price `47,548. 1QSY2015 Result Update Tyre

Rallis India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `215 Target Price - 3QFY2017 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

Inox Wind BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `242 `286. 4QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods. 3 year price chart

Rallis India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `242 Target Price - 4QFY2017 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

Parag Milk Foods BUY. Performance Update CMP. `324 Target Price `410. 1QFY2019 Result Update Dairy Products. Investment Period 12 Months

Rallis India SELL. Performance Highlights. `231 Target Price 189 CMP. 2QFY2018 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period 12 months

Tata Steel NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `226 Target Price - 2QFY2016 Result Update Steel. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

TV Today Network BUY. Performance Update CMP. `323 Target Price `498. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Investment Period 12 Months

Inox Wind BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `390 `505. 2QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods. 3 year price chart

Blue Star Ltd BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `703 `867. 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable. 3-year price chart.

Quick take. Ruchira Papers Ltd. BUY. Creating value through paper. Target Price. Investment Period 12 Months. 3 year daily price chart.

Asian Granito BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `270 Target Price `351. Outlook and valuation. 3QFY2017 Result Update Ceramics

TV Today Network BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `315 `385. 2QFY2017 Result Update Media. Historical share price chart.

GMM Pfaudler Limited BUY. Performance Update CMP. `945 Target Price ` QFY2019 Result Update Industrial Machinery. Investment Period 12 Months

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Bata India BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `842. 1QFY2019 Result Update Footwear. Historical share price chart.

Graphite India BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `93 Target Price `124. 4QFY2012 Result Update Capital Goods. Investment Period 12 Months

Hero MotoCorp ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `3,226 Target Price `3,466. 3QFY2017 Result Update Automobile. 3-year price chart

Amara Raja Batteries BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,010 Target Price `1,167. 2QFY2017 Result Update Auto Ancillary. 3-year price chart

Music Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `329 `475. 2QFY2019 Result Update Media. Historical share price chart.

Ambuja Cements NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `184 Target Price - 2QCY2012 Result Update Cement. Quarterly results (Standalone)

Bata India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `1,008 Target Price `1,243. 2QFY2019 Result Update Footwear. Historical share price chart.

Music Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `293 `475. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Stock Info Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Media

KEI Industries BUY. Performance Update. Target Price. 3QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart. Key Financials

Greenply Industries BUY. The plywood maker for growing India. Target Price. Initiating Coverage Plywood. 3-year price chart.

GAIL India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `363 Target Price - 2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas. Investment Period -

Graphite India BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `88 `109. 1QFY2012 Result Update Capital Goods

Sanofi India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `4,410 Target Price `4,738. 1QCY2016 Result Update Pharmaceutical. 3-year price chart

Advisory Desk. TVS Srichakra Ltd. BUY CMP. `355 Target Price `468. Investment rationale. Outlook and valuation. Investment Period 12 Months

Hero MotoCorp ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `3,718 Target Price `4,130. 1QFY2018 Result Update Automobile. 3-year price chart

KEI Industries BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `433 `508. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart.

LT Foods BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `92 `128. 3QFY2018 Result Update Media February 12, 2018

ACC NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,261 Target Price - 4QCY2012 Result Update Cement. Quarterly results (Standalone) Investment Period -

Sanofi India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `4,007 Target Price - 3QCY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period 12 months

SpiceJet BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `32 Target Price `43. 1QFY2013 Result Update Airlines. Investment Period 12 Months.

Sanofi India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `4,007 Target Price - 2QCY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical. 3-year price chart.

Sanofi India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `4,301 Target Price - 4QCY2016 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

Jindal Steel & Power BUY. CMP Target Price `200 `320. 1QFY2019 Result Update Steel & Power. Performance Update

Transport Corporation of India

Kirloskar Oil Engines

LT Foods BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `76 `128. 4QFY2018 Result Update Media

Cadila Healthcare NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `495 Target Price - 4QFY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical.

Ambuja Cements NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `155 Target Price - 1QCY2011 Result Update Cement. Investment Period - Key financials (Standalone)

CCL Products BUY. Brewing Steadily. CMP Target Price `300 `360. Initiating Coverage Coffee. January 4, year price chart

Blue Star Ltd BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `754 `867. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cons. Durable. 3-year price chart.

Quick take. Ashok Leyland Ltd BUY. Scrappage policy to drive faster growth. Target Price. Investment Period 12 Months. 3-year price chart

TVS Motor Company BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `39 `45. 2QFY2013 Result Update Automobile. Quarterly highlights (Standalone)

Federal Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. Target Price. 1QFY2018 Result Update Banking. Stock Info Sector

Visaka Industries BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `119 Target Price `144. 2QFY2016 Result Update Cement Products. Investment Period 12 Months

Quick take. VIP Industries BUY. Travelling smart on the luggage track. CMP Target Price `153 ` year daily price chart

CCL Products BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `278 `360. 3QFY2018 Result Update Coffee. Historical share price chart.

Century Plyboards Ltd

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)

Cadila Healthcare NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `390 Target Price - 2QFY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period -

Matrimony.com Ltd BUY. Performance Update. Target Price `1,016. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart.

Cadila Healthcare NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `440 Target Price. 3QFY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period -

Cairn India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `338 `382. 2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas. Quarterly highlights (Consolidated)

Maruti Suzuki ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `7,622 Target Price `8,501. 1QFY2018 Result Update Automobile

Dewan Housing Finance

LIC Housing Finance BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `532 `630. 3QFY2017 Result Update HFC. 3-Year Daily Price Chart

Lupin BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,493 Target Price `1,809. 2QFY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical. 3-year price chart

TV Today Network BUY. Go with the market leader. CMP Target Price `297 `363. Initiating Coverage Media. 3-year price chart

Varroc Engineering Ltd.

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `328 `416. 3QFY2018 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

HDFC Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,145 Target Price `2,500. Q3FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

TVS Srichakra BUY. Performance Update. CMP `1,877 Target Price `2,228. 4QFY2015 Result Update Tyres. 3 year price chart.

Apollo Tyres BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `71 `82. 4QFY2011Result Update Tyre. Key financials (Consolidated)

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `343 `460. Q3FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Exhibit 1: Key Financials

Lupin 1QFY2018 Result Update

Hero MotoCorp NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,245 Target Price - 4QFY2012 Result Update Automobile. Investment Period - Key financials

Matrimony.com Ltd BUY. A complete package from matchmaking to wedding. Target Price. Initiating Coverage Internet Software & Services

Simplex Infrastructures

ITD Cementation India

Quick take. Aditya Birla Nuvo BUY. Deep Value. Valuation Methodology. Exhibit 1: ABNL s Business Structure

Dr. Reddy s Laboratories

Cipla REDUCE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `564 `490. 2QFY2017 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period - 3-Year Daily Price Chart

BGR Energy Systems NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `235 Target Price - 3QFY2013 Result Update Capital Goods. Investment Period -

SUN TV Network NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `297 Target Price - 1QFY2013 Result Update Media. Investment Period -

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `307 `411. 1QFY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

Aurobindo Pharma ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. `780 Target Price CMP `855. 2QFY2019 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period 12 months

Maruti Suzuki ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `5,715 Target Price `6,006. 2QFY2017 Result Update Automobile. 3-year price chart

Apollo Tyres BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `56 `65. 3QFY2011Result Update Tyre. Key Financials (Consolidated)

HDFC Bank BUY. Operating performance strong; improved NIM. CMP `2,268 Target Price `2,500. Q4FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart

Transcription:

Nov/12 Feb/13 May/13 Aug/13 Nov/13 Feb/14 May/14 Aug/14 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Feb/16 4QFY2016 Result Update Tyres February 9, 2016 Goodyear India Performance Highlights Y/E December (` cr) 4QFY2016 4QCY2014* % chg (yoy) 3QFY2016 % chg (qoq) Net sales 366 360 1.7 382 (4.1) EBITDA 39 30 27.7 46 (15.5) EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 8.4 214bp 11.9 (142)bp Adjusted PAT 26 19 37.5 29 (10.1) Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *reporting changed from CY to FY starting Jan 2015 Note- Goodyear India is shifting from calendar year reporting to financial year reporting. Hence FY2016 will consist of five quarters. For 4QFY2016, Goodyear India (GIL) s numbers have come in lower than our estimates. The top-line reported a marginal growth of 1.7% yoy to `366cr. However, the company performed well on the operational front, reporting an EBITDA margin expansion of 214bp yoy to 10.5% while its EBITDA grew by 27.7% yoy to `39cr. On the back of lower operating expenses and higher other income, which grew by 43.7% yoy to `10cr, the net profit grew by 37.5% yoy to `26cr. Expansion drive to lead to recovery in top-line: GIL has laid out plans to significantly grow its presence in the passenger car segment in India over the next five years. The company aspires to be one of the top players in the mid to premium and SUV segments of passenger cars. It is also evaluating an entry into newer segments; in order to reach its goal, the company is weighing organic as well as inorganic growth options to expand in India. We believe that this increased focus on growing its presence in the passenger car segment as well entry into newer segments will lower the impact of poor performance of the tractor industry. Strong balance sheet with high RoIC: GIL is a debt free-cash rich company with RoIC estimated at ~68% for FY2017. The company s cash and equivalents are expected to be at `515cr by FY2017-end, which amount to ~46% of the current market cap. More importantly, GIL is one of the cheapest MNCs available to invest in, in the similar market cap range. Outlook and valuation: We expect the company s top-line to be at `1,800cr and `1,600cr in FY2016E and FY2017E respectively. Raw material cost is expected to remain stable over FY2016E-17E resulting in EBITDA margin of 11.7% in FY2016E and 11.5% in FY2017E. Consequently, we estimate the net profit to be at `122cr in FY2017E. At the current market price, the stock is trading at a PE of 9.2x its FY2017E earnings. On a TTM basis, GIL is one of the cheapest MNCs available as it trades at a PE of 11.0x while other MNCs (having market cap in the range of `1,000cr-`5,000cr) trade above the 20.0x mark (with a median of 27.7x). We maintain our Buy rating on the stock and assign a target price of `582 based on a target PE of 11.0x for FY2017E. BUY CMP Target Price Investment Period Stock Info `487 `582 12 Months Sector Market Cap (` cr) Tyres 1,124 Net Debt (365) Beta 0.8 52 Week High / Low 674 / 470 Avg. Daily Volume 14,951 Face Value (`) 10 BSE Sensex 24,021 Nifty 7,298 Reuters Code GDYR.BO Bloomberg Code GDYR IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 74.0 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.6 FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.9 Indian Public / Others 17.5 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (8.0) (14.9) 23.4 GOODYEAR (13.5) (14.5) 56.2 3-year Daily Price Chart 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - Key Financials Y/E Mar (` cr) CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 FY2016E* FY2017E Net Sales 1,481 1,569 1,579 1,800 1,600 % chg (2.1) 5.9 0.7 14.0 (11.1) Source: Company, Angel Research Net Profit 57 94 101 135 122 % chg (13.4) 66.3 7.6 33.8 (9.9) EBITDA (%) 6.1 8.9 9.7 11.7 11.5 EPS (`) 24.5 40.8 43.9 58.7 52.9 P/E (x) 19.9 12.0 11.1 8.3 9.2 P/BV (x) 3.2 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 RoE (%) 16.9 24.2 22.0 24.6 18.7 RoIC (%) 65.1 95.4 94.6 89.9 68.0 Milan Desai EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 +91-22- 4000 3600 Ext: 6846 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 5.8 4.9 3.4 3.3 milan.desai@angelbroking.com Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2016 performance Y/E December (` cr) 4QFY16 4QCY14* yoy chg (%) 3QFY16 qoq chg (%) CY2015* CY2014* % chg Net Sales 366 360 1.7 382 (4.1) 1,455 1,579 (7.8) Net raw material 243 239 1.4 242 0.3 935 1,094 (14.6) (% of Sales) 66.3 66.5 (20)bp 63.4 289bp 64.2 69.3 (508)bp Staff Costs 29 31 (5.4) 30 (1.5) 111 99 12.3 (% of Sales) 7.9 8.5 (59)bp 7.7 20bp 7.6 6.3 137bp Other Expenses 56 60 (6.6) 64 (13.6) 240 232 3.3 (% of Sales) 15.2 16.6 (135)bp 16.9 (167)bp 16.5 14.7 177bp Total Expenditure 328 330 (0.7) 336 (2.5) 1,286 1,426 (9.8) EBITDA 39 30 27.7 46 (15.5) 170 154 10.5 EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 8.4 214bp 11.9 (142)bp 11.7 9.7 194bp Interest 1 1 (5.8) 1 (5.8) 3 3 (23.6) Depreciation 8 8 (0.1) 8 (1.3) 32 29 13.2 Other Income 10 7 43.7 7.3 36.8 29 32 (7.5) PBT 40 29 39.8 44 (9.5) 164 154 12.6 (% of Sales) 11.0 8.0 11.6 11.3 9.7 Tax 14 10 15 57 52 (% of PBT) 35.0 34.0 34.6 34.8 34.0 Reported PAT 26 19 37.5 29 (10.1) 107 101 5.8 PATM 7.1 5.3 7.6 7.4 6.4 Equity capital (cr) 23 23 23 23 23 EPS (`) 11 8 37.5 13 (10.1) 46 44 5.8 Source: Company, Angel Research; *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 Exhibit 2: Actual vs. Angel estimates (4QFY2016) Actual (` cr) Estimate (` cr) Var (%) Total Income 366 397 (7.8) EBIDTA 39 49 (21.6) EBIDTA margin (%) 10.5 12.4 (184)bp Adjusted PAT 26 33 (20.8) Source: Company, Angel Research Revenue and margin below expectations GIL s numbers for 4QFY2016 have come in below our estimates. The top-line witnessed a marginal growth of 1.7% yoy to `366cr, which is below our estimate of `397. Sales continue to be impacted on account of softness in demand for farm tyres owing to erratic rainfall and only a moderate increase in MSPs. The demand from OEMs has been unimpressive as tractor sales have reported marginal growth rates for Oct-Dec 2015 period, that too on a lower base. The operational performance improved on a yoy basis led by a 135bp yoy decline in other expenses as a percentage of sales to 15.2% while raw material cost and employee expense as a percentage of sales also declined marginally on a yoy basis. As a result, the EBITDA grew by 27.7% yoy to `39cr and the EBITDA margin improved by 214bp yoy to 10.5%. On the back of lower operating expenses and higher other income, which grew by 43.7% yoy to `10cr, the net profit grew by 37.5% yoy to `26cr against our estimate of `33cr. February 9, 2016 2

Goodyear India Vesuvius Merck Huhtamaki PPL Ingersoll Rand KSB Pumps Igarashi Motors Novartis India Honda Siel Power Timken India Grindwell Norton (ttm PE) Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Investment rationale Focus to be among the leading players in passenger car segment GIL is targeting towards becoming one of the top players in the passenger car tyre segment in the next five years. The company is focusing on increasing its presence in both the OEM and the aftermarket segments. It will be launching new products and widening its product portfolio in the mid to premium and SUV segments of passenger vehicles. To reach its goal, the company is weighing both organic as well as inorganic growth options to expand in the segment. The Management has indicated that apart from farm and passenger car tyres, it is looking at entering into newer segments and ramping up newer launches to grow in India. The company benefits from strong R&D capability of its parent Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (USA), which helps it in launching technologically superior products for the Indian markets. The passenger vehicle segment has been the sole bright spot in the Indian Auto Industry (non-mhcv) posting a growth rate of ~11% YTD in FY2016. We believe that this increased focus on growing its presence in the passenger car segment will lower the impact of poor performance of the tractor industry. Strong balance sheet with high RoIC; valuations remain attractive! GIL is a debt free-cash rich company with RoIC estimated at ~68% for FY2017. The company s cash and equivalents are expected to be at `515cr by FY2017-end, which amount to ~46% of the current market cap. GIL remains among the cheapest MNCs available among those with a market cap in the range of `1,000cr-`5,000cr. On a TTM basis, GIL trades at a P/E of 11.0x vis-à-vis median TTM PE of ~27.7x for other MNCs. Thus, GIL is available at an attractive valuation considering the fact that all other MNCs are trading above the 20.0x mark. Exhibit 3: On TTM PE basis, GIL is cheapest amongst MNCs 45 40 35 30 25 20 18 23 24 24 28 28 31 35 38 41 15 10 11 5 0 Source: Company, Angel Research February 9, 2016 3

Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May- Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May- Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May- Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 (`/kg) Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Stable rubber prices to help in sustaining margins Natural Rubber (NR) continues to show weakness as domestic NR prices further slipped by ~10.0% yoy and ~8.0% qoq to `109/kg in 3QFY2016. Global prices during the period have declined by ~17.0% yoy and ~14.0% qoq suggesting the higher global inventory is likely to keep prices at lower levels. With lower raw material price environment prevailing, we expect GIL to maintain its margin in the near future. Exhibit 4: International vs. Domestic rubber price trend 230 Domestic Price International Price 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 91 85 Source: Angel Research Tractor demand outlook muted in the near term, long term prospects remain intact GIL is a market leader in the tractor tyre industry. The tractor industry has witnessed a sharp decline in volumes over the past few years due to below average monsoon, unseasonal rains and moderate increase in MSPs that has hurt rural sentiments. However, expectation of a normal monsoon and increase in MSPs are likely to prove as triggers for the overall tractor industry. Industry reports suggest that the tractor industry is expected to post a CAGR of ~6% over the next five years owing to factors mentioned above as well as factors such as shortage of labor which is driving a trend towards farm mechanization. February 9, 2016 4

1,297 1,513 1,481 1,569 1,579 1,800 1,600 (` cr) (%) 71,920 57,433 57,481 34,511 59,140 42,076 59,785 Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Exhibit 5: M&M Domestic tractor sales trend 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-18.3 0.3 (24.5) (66.0) (17.8) (26.7) 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 - (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0) (60.0) (70.0) (80.0) M&M DomesticTractor Sales (LHS) yoy growth % (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Financials Although the near term outlook remains subdued owing to poor tractor sales, we expect stable improvement in the company s performance over FY2016E-17E citing recovery in tractor sales, Management s drive to expands its presence in the passenger vehicle segment and entry into newer segments. We expect GIL s revenue to be at `1,800cr and `1,600cr in FY2016E and FY2017E, respectively. Exhibit 6: Top-line to recover 2,100 1,800 27.6 30 25 1,500 16.7 14.0 20 15 1,200 10 900 5.9 0.7 5 600 (2.1) 0 (5) 300 (11.1) (10) 0 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 FY2016E* FY2017E Revenue (LHS) Revenue yoy growth (RHS) (15) Source: Company, Angel Research; *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 Domestic rubber prices have seen a declining trend since November 2011 from the high of ~`200/kg to current levels of ~`90/kg while international prices are trading close at ~`85/kg. We expect rubber prices to remain at lower levels and report marginal increase if any over FY2016-17E. February 9, 2016 5

107 91 139 154 211 184 65 57 94 101 135 122 (` cr) (%) (` cr) (%) Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Exhibit 7: EBITDA and margin trend Exhibit 8: PAT trend 225 14.0 160 10.0 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 7.1 6.1 8.9 9.7 11.7 11.7 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 4.3 3.8 6.0 6.4 7.5 7.6 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 - CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 FY2016E* FY2017E 4.0 0 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 FY2016E* FY2017E - EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS) PAT (LHS) PAT margin (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research; *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 Exhibit 11: Relative valuation Company Year Mcap (` cr) Source: Company, Angel Research; *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 Led by recovery in volumes, coupled with raw material prices remaining at lower levels, the net profit is expected to be at `135cr and at `122cr in FY2016E and FY2017E, respectively. Outlook and valuation We have estimated the top-line to be at `1,800cr and `1,600cr in FY2016E (15 months) and FY2017E, respectively, while the net profit is expected to be at `135cr and `122cr for the same period. At the current market price, GIL trades at a PE of 9.2x its FY2017E earnings (11.0x on TTM basis). GIL is among the cheapest stocks available in the MNC space (with market cap in the range of `1,000cr-`1,500cr). All other MNCs falling in a similar market cap range are trading above the 20.0x mark on a TTM basis with median PE being 27.7x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock and assign a target price of `582 based on a target PE of 11x its FY2017E EPS. Sales (` cr) OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/ Sales (x) Apollo tyres FY2017E 6,874 12,689 16.0 968 19.0 13.0 7.1 0.9 0.7 MRF FY2017E 14,250 14,488 21.1 1,611 3,797.9 21.2 9.0 1.7 0.9 Goodyear FY2017E 1,124 1,600 11.5 122 52.9 18.7 9.2 1.6 0.4 Source: Company, Angel Research, Bloomberg GIL is fairly priced vis-à-vis its peers in the tyre industry in terms of PE and PBV multiples considering its high ROE; but it is trading at a relatively lower valuation of 0.4x EV/Sales multiple based on FY2017E earnings. February 9, 2016 6

Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 (`) Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E band 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - Price (`) 5x 8x 11x 14 Source: Company, Angel Research Risks Volatile rubber prices: Rubber constitutes ~55% of the total raw-material cost in the manufacture of tyres. Domestic rubber prices have declined from the level of `200/kg in June 2012 to average levels of `121/kg in CY2015 and to `91/kg currently. However, increase in rubber prices will have a negative impact on the company s EBITDA margin and consequently on its profit. Concentrated product portfolio: GIL s product portfolio is primarily concentrated to tractor and passenger car tyres. Both these segments constitute ~98% of the total tonnage off-take of the company. Due to high dependency on these segments, GIL is exposed to the risk of any slowdown in these segments. Termination of off-take agreement: GIL is in an off-take agreement (on a non-exclusive basis and can be terminated by either party with a four-month notice) with Goodyear South Asia Tyres Pvt Ltd, from which it procures passenger vehicle tyres. Considering that a significant percentage of GIL s sales are backed by this agreement, termination of the same may affect GIL s sales considerably. Hike in import duty of rubber: In the wake of falling domestic rubber prices, the Central Government has increased the import duty on natural rubber to lower of 25% or `30/kg, from lower of 20% or `30/kg. Further upward revision in the import duty will have an adverse impact on GIL s profitability. Company Background GIL is a subsidiary of Goodyear Orient Company (Private) Ltd (a wholly owned subsidiary of Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, USA), which holds a 74% stake in the company. The company majorly caters to the tractor tyre segment, where it has a market share of ~22.0% in tractor front tyres and ~34.3% in tractor rear tyres as of CY2012. February 9, 2016 7

Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement Y/E December (` cr) CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 FY2016E* FY2017E Gross sales 1,613 1,706 1,709 1,953 1,735 Less: Excise duty 132 137 130 152 135 Net Sales 1,481 1,569 1,579 1,800 1,600 Other operating income - - - - - Total operating income 1,481 1,569 1,579 1,800 1,600 % chg (2.1) 5.9 0.7 14.0 (11.1) Net Raw Materials 1,102 1,116 1,094 1,157 1,034 Personnel 81 88 99 137 121 Other 207 226 232 295 262 Total Expenditure 1,391 1,430 1,426 1,590 1,416 EBITDA 91 139 154 211 184 % chg (15.3) 53.2 10.5 37.3 (12.9) (% of Net Sales) 6.1 8.9 9.7 11.7 11.5 Depreciation 24 25 29 40 35 EBIT 67 114 125 171 148 % chg (23.7) 70.8 9.9 36.5 (13.1) (% of Net Sales) 4.5 7.3 7.9 9.5 9.3 Interest & other charges 4 2 3 3 2 Other Income 22 30 32 38 39 (% of sales) 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 PBT 85 142 154 205 185 % chg (12.1) 67.7 8.2 33.7 (9.9) Tax 28 48 52 70 63 (% of PBT) 33.5 33.7 34.0 34.0 34.0 PAT (reported) 56 94 101 135 122 Extraordinary (Exp)/Inc. (0) - - - - ADJ. PAT 57 94 101 135 122 % chg (13.4) 66.3 7.6 33.8 (9.9) (% of Net Sales) 3.8 6.0 6.4 7.5 7.6 Basic EPS (`) 24.5 40.8 43.9 58.7 52.9 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 24.5 40.8 43.9 58.7 52.9 % chg (12.4) 66.3 7.6 33.8 (9.9) *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 February 9, 2016 8

Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Balance Sheet Y/E December (` cr) CY2012 CY2013 CY2014E FY2016E* FY2017E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 23 23 23 23 23 Preference Capital - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 331 400 474 581 676 Shareholders Funds 354 424 497 605 699 Minority Interest - - - - - Total Loans - - - - - Deferred Tax Liability 11 13 14 12 12 Other Long Term Liabilities - 3 5 4 3 Long Term Provisions 19 20 21 23 21 Total Liabilities 384 459 536 644 735 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 398 430 481 541 595 Less: Acc. Depreciation 201 220 241 281 317 Net Block 198 210 240 260 279 Capital Work-in-Progress 17 32 17 10 10 Goodwill - - - - - Investments - - - - - Long Term Loans and adv. 19 17 19 15 15 Other non-current assets 0 0 1 1 1 Current Assets 507 600 617 678 788 Cash 238 317 365 408 515 Loans & Advances 6 10 6 11 10 Inventory 104 99 123 125 115 Debtors 154 165 112 127 141 Other Current Assets 4 9 10 8 8 Current liabilities 357 400 358 321 358 Net Current Assets 150 200 259 358 430 Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - - Total Assets 384 459 536 644 735 *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 February 9, 2016 9

Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Cash Flow Statement Y/E December (` cr) CY2012 CY2013 CY2014E FY2016E* FY2017E Profit before tax 85 142 154 205 185 Depreciation 24 25 29 40 35 Change in Working Capital (40) 29 (11) (56) 35 Other income (22) (30) (32) (38) (39) Direct taxes paid (28) (48) (52) (71) (63) Others 7 14 12 - - Cash Flow from Operations 26 131 99 81 154 (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (23) (46) (36) (53) (54) (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments - - - - - (Incr)/Decr In L.T. loan and adv. (4) 2 (2) 3 - Other income 22 30 32 38 39 Others (10) (18) (17) - - Cash Flow from Investing (14) (32) (24) (12) (15) Issue of Equity - - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - 2 (1) (0) Inc./(Dec.) in L.T. Pro. & Liab. 1 1 1 3 (3) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (19) (24) (28) (28) (28) Others (5) 3 (2) - - Cash Flow from Financing (23) (21) (27) (26) (31) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (11) 78 48 43 107 Opening Cash balances 249 238 317 365 408 Closing Cash balances 238 317 365 408 515 *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 February 9, 2016 10

Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E December CY2012 CY2013 CY2014E CY2015E CY2016E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 19.9 12.0 11.1 8.3 9.2 P/CEPS 13.9 9.4 8.7 6.4 7.2 P/BV 3.2 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 EV/EBITDA 9.8 5.8 4.9 3.4 3.3 EV / Total Assets 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 24.5 40.8 43.9 58.7 52.9 EPS (fully diluted) 24.5 40.8 43.9 58.7 52.9 Cash EPS 35.0 51.7 56.3 76.1 68.2 DPS 7.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Book Value 153.5 183.6 215.4 262.1 303.0 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 4.5 7.3 7.9 9.5 9.3 Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 14.5 13.1 11.9 9.5 7.3 ROIC (Post-tax) 43.4 63.2 62.4 59.3 44.9 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - Leverage (x) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) Operating ROE 14.2 16.0 16.6 19.3 11.8 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 18.3 27.0 25.1 29.0 21.5 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 65.1 95.4 94.6 89.9 68.0 ROE 16.9 24.2 22.0 24.6 18.7 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 2.8 Inventory / Sales (days) 23 24 26 31 27 Receivables (days) 35 37 32 32 32 Payables (days) 118 124 126 126 126 WC (ex-cash) (days) (27) (24) (26) (20) (15) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) Net debt to EBITDA (2.6) (2.3) (2.4) (1.9) (2.8) Interest Coverage 17.5 52.7 36.7 52.1 68.0 *reporting changed from CY to FY starting January 2015 February 9, 2016 11

Goodyear 4QFY2016 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com DISCLAIMER Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as Angel ) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitian Stock Exchange of India Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Goodyear India 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors Ratings (Based on expected returns Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) over 12 months investment period): Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) February 9, 2016 12