1 Weekly Inter-market Technical Report Summary Chart 1 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
2 Intraday Intermarket Volatility is returning to the markets, particularly with the collapse/sell-swing in US Treasuries (to new swing lows in an ongoing downtrend) along with Crude Oil breaking higher toward $70.00 while the US Dollar spikes higher as well. Stocks remain within a lengthy trading range and turned down back beneath 2,700 after a small break - a trap for now - above it. 2 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
3 10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST Price) Weekly Bonds SUCCESSFULLY achieved our upside bounce target just above the 121 into the falling 20 week EMA level after rallying - on a big positive divergence - from the 119 level. However, we've had SELL SWING plan in motion to trade the DEPARTURE back toward the prior low at 119 which was correct as the target was achieved last week. Watch 119 very carefully here. 3 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
4 Daily As seen on the WEEKLY chart, bonds are in a short-term DOWNTREND into a key weekly chart SUPPORT pivot at 119 which is our successfully achieved downside target. Last week was a strong sell-swing week that took price much quicker than expected toward our 119 target. Look for additional downside pressure if the Notes break firmly beneath 119 which means that the yields will spike toward or above the 3% level which could trigger reflexive selling in stocks. 4 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
5 US S&P 500 ($SPX) Monthly February gave us a wide monthly candle of high volatility and March was another big sellmonthly candle locked in place for two bearish months. The non-stop multi-month up-rally was grossly overextended and was unlikely to end without a collapse bar at a minimum - and the collapse continued. Note the lower frame levels and monitor the immediate departure from the critical levels such as 2,600 and 2,700. The Weekly and Daily long-term pivots have been achieved as price consolidates and now trades into our longer-term range between the weekly EMAs at roughly 2,600 and 2,700 - a critical yet wide level for the future. 5 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
6 Weekly Clearly price gave us our "violent snap-back" that collapsed us from 2,900 toward 2,600 where and then back up again to form a wide trading range. After that, we've seen a few weeks of sideways consolidation between the 20 and 50 EMAs contract the high volatility events. Last week gave us another relative low volatility consolidation and bounce back toward the highs as the week ended at the lows AND exactly at the 20 week EMA level. There's no directional edge when price is balanced here as it is so be careful and monitor your lower timeframe charts and active positions carefully without bias. 6 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
7 Daily: Keeping the "don't predict," logic, we have price back into a longer-term sideways pivot line near 2,670 overlapping the 20 day EMA also at 2,670. It's clear that 2,670 is our new shortterm price pivot and will frame our trades on the departure from this level - see hourly chart. It's logical to see a pullback after the stellar rally up away from 2,600 toward 2,700 with only a single pause day. Again, be cautious with price into a key support level - when price is balanced at a pivot, magnet, or gravity level, there's little edge in predicting the way price is going to go. Be cautious/patient and then join the winning side on the swing away from here. 7 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
8 Gold Weekly We got an initial bearish play down away from $1,360 as price continued to consolidation within our $1,310 and $1,360 wide weekly range (rectangle). Last week gold took us back to our midpoint after trading down from our resistance, locking in the short-term trading range between $1,330 and resistance at $1,360 as a small wedge or triangle (daily chart) develops. 8 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
9 Daily With Gold again BACK near the midpoint of $1,330/$1,340, be cautious here yet again as was the case last week - it's still in the middle of the range and thus there's no edge like there is when playing short against $1,360 or long against $1,310. Edge comes from a higher probability outcome and tighter stops relative to your target. There's no trade here for swing traders beyond a few days UNTIL we get a breakout. Gold continues to trade between our $1,310 and $1,360 so be safe here until we're back into the $1,360 or $1,310 levels. We'll get a breakout but it has not yet occurred. 9 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
10 WTI Crude Oil ($WTIC) Weekly Like Stocks, Oil remains in a longer-term uptrend but UNLIKE stocks, Oil trades back at the 2018 swing highs just shy of the $70.00 pivot level. Note the trading range (highlights) and again be prepared to trade within this range until price breaks out which may have initially been confirmed last week on the bullish geo-political events resulting in a breakout beyond $66.00. Use $70 as your critical pivot next week. 10 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
11 Daily As was logical given the divergences at the beginning of 2018 - and the sell signal in stocks - Oil collapsed DOWN AWAY from our $66.00 and $65.00 level toward our weekly pivot at $60.00 and then stabilized. At this point, Oil has become our strongest market we follow in the report as it's not only back at its prior high but just exceeded it above $70.00 right now. Like the other swing highs away from the rising 20 day EMA, we'll be cautious and on guard for a PULLBACK down away from the $70.00 target but will play an alternate thesis (no pullback) breakout beyond $70.00. 11 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
12 US Dollar Index ($USD) Weekly Be very careful here - we DID get our bounce UP AWAY FROM the 89.00 level toward the falling 20 week EMA into 90.00 which is where we find ourselves currently with a reversal candle and initial departure from our 20 week EMA resistance target of 90.00. This is a "take profits" or get cautious stance. Do note the alternate thesis bullish breakout pathway that targets 92.00. 12 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
13 Daily We continued our DEPARTURE play mentioned in last week's report on the move "Up away from" the $89.00 support level. Like most other markets, the Dollar is in a CONSOLIDATION pattern beneath the $90.00 resistance and now-rising lower trendline intersecting $89.00. Simply planned, keep trading within this narrowing range UNTIL we do get a breakout beyond the trendlines and set targets accordingly (prior swing highs and lows outside the range). 13 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
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