Real GD Growth in the United States 10 ercent change from 4 quarters 8 earlier Average growth rate = 3.5% 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 2 Time horizons Long run: rices are flexible, respond to changes in supply or demand Short run: many prices are sticky at some predetermined level The economy behaves much differently when prices are sticky. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 3 1
In Classical Macroeconomic Theory, (what we studied in chapters 3-8) Output is determined by the supply side: supplies of capital, labor technology Changes in demand for goods & services (C, I, G ) only affect prices, not quantities. Complete price flexibility is a crucial assumption, so classical theory applies in the long run. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 4 When prices are sticky output and employment also depend on demand for goods & services, which is affected by fiscal policy (G and T ) monetary policy (M ) other factors, like exogenous changes in C or I. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 5 2
The model of aggregate demand and supply the paradigm that most mainstream economists & policymakers use to think about economic fluctuations and policies to stabilize the economy shows how the price level and aggregate output are determined shows how the economy s behavior is different in the short run and long run Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 6 Aggregate demand The aggregate demand curve shows the relationship between the price level and the quantity of output demanded. For this chapter s intro to the AD/AS model, we use a simple theory of aggregate demand based on the Quantity Theory of Money. Chapters 10-12 develop the theory of aggregate demand in more detail. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 7 3
The Quantity Equation as Agg.. Demand From Chapter 4, recall the quantity equation MV = and the money demand function it implies: (M/ ) d = k where V = 1/k = velocity. For given values of M and V, these equations imply an inverse relationship between and : Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 8 The downward-sloping AD curve An increase in the price level causes a fall in real money balances (M/ ), causing a decrease in the demand for goods & services. AD Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 9 4
Shifting the AD curve An increase in the money supply shifts the AD curve to the right. AD 1 AD 2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 10 Aggregate Supply in the Long Run Recall from chapter 3: In the long run, output is determined by factor supplies and technology = F ( K, L) is the full-employment or natural level of output, the level of output at which the economy s resources are fully employed. Full employment means that unemployment equals its natural rate. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 11 5
Aggregate Supply in the Long Run Recall from chapter 3: In the long run, output is determined by factor supplies and technology = F ( K, L) Full-employment output does not depend on the price level, so the long run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is vertical: Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 12 The long-run aggregate supply curve LRAS The LRAS curve is vertical at the full- employment level of output. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 13 6
Long-run effects of an increase in M In the long run, this increases the price level 2 1 LRAS An increase in M shifts the AD curve to the right. AD 1 AD 2 but leaves output the same. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 14 Aggregate Supply in the Short Run In the real world, many prices are sticky in the short run. For now (and throughout Chapters 9-12), we assume that all prices are stuck at a predetermined level in the short run and that firms are willing to sell as much as their customers are willing to buy at that price level. Therefore, the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve is horizontal: Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 15 7
The short run aggregate supply curve The SRAS curve is horizontal: The price level is fixed at a predetermined level, and firms sell as much as buyers demand. SRAS Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 16 Short-run run effects of an increase in M In the short run when prices are sticky, an increase in aggregate demand SRAS AD 1 AD 2 causes output to rise. 1 2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 17 8
From the short run to the long run Over time, prices gradually become unstuck. When they do, will they rise or fall? In the short-run equilibrium, if > < = then over time, the price level will rise fall remain constant This adjustment of prices is what moves the economy to its long-run equilibrium. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 18 The SR & LR effects of ΔM > 0 A = initial equilibrium LRAS B = new shortrun eq m after Fed increases M C = long- run equilibrium 2 A C B 2 SRAS AD 1 AD 2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 19 9
How shocking!!! shocks: exogenous changes in aggregate supply or demand Shocks temporarily push the economy away from full-employment. An example of a demand shock: exogenous decrease in velocity If the money supply is held constant, then a decrease in V means people will be using their money in fewer transactions, causing a decrease in demand for goods and services: Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 20 The effects of a negative demand shock The shock shifts AD left, causing output and employment to fall in the short run Over time, prices fall and the economy moves down its demand curve toward fullemployment. 2 B 2 LRAS A C SRAS AD 1 AD 2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 21 10
Supply shocks A supply shock alters production costs, affects the prices that firms charge. (also called price shocks) Examples of adverse supply shocks: Bad weather reduces crop yields, pushing up food prices. Workers unionize, negotiate wage increases. New environmental regulations require firms to reduce emissions. Firms charge higher prices to help cover the costs of compliance. (Favorable supply shocks lower costs and prices.) Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 22 CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks Early 1970s: OEC coordinates a reduction in the supply of oil. Oil prices rose 11% in 1973 68% in 1974 16% in 1975 Such sharp oil price increases are supply shocks because they significantly impact production costs and prices. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 23 11
CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks The oil price shock shifts SRAS up, causing output and employment to fall. In absence of further price shocks, prices will fall over time and economy moves back toward full employment. 2 1 B 2 LRAS A SRAS 2 SRAS 1 AD Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 24 CASE STUD: redicted effects of the oil price shock: inflation output unemployment and then a gradual recovery. The 1970s oil shocks 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-ci (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 25 12
CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks 60% 14% Late 1970s: As economy was recovering, oil prices shot up again, causing another huge supply shock!!! 50% 12% 40% 10% 30% 8% 20% 10% 6% 0% 4% 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-ci (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 26 CASE STUD: 1980s: A favorable supply shock-- a significant fall in oil prices. As the model would predict, inflation and unemployment fell: The 1980s oil shocks 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-ci (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 27 13
Stabilization policy def: policy actions aimed at reducing the severity of short-run economic fluctuations. Example: Using monetary policy to combat the effects of adverse supply shocks: Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 28 Stabilizing output with monetary policy The adverse supply shock moves the economy to point B. 2 B LRAS SRAS 2 1 A SRAS 1 AD 1 2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 29 14
Stabilizing output with monetary policy But the Fed accommodates the shock by raising agg. demand. 2 B LRAS C SRAS 2 results: is permanently higher, but remains at its fullemployment level. 1 2 A AD 2 AD 1 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 30 Chapter summary 1. Long run: prices are flexible, output and employment are always at their natural rates, and the classical theory applies. Short run: prices are sticky, shocks can push output and employment away from their natural rates. 2. Aggregate demand and supply: a framework to analyze economic fluctuations Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 31 15
Chapter summary 3. The aggregate demand curve slopes downward. 4. The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical, because output depends on technology and factor supplies, but not prices. 5. The short-run aggregate supply curve is horizontal, because prices are sticky at predetermined levels. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 32 Chapter summary 6. Shocks to aggregate demand and supply cause fluctuations in GD and employment in the short run. 7. The Fed can attempt to stabilize the economy with monetary policy. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 33 16
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 34 17