Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 17, 2 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
13 13 Figure 1. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2=1) 13 13 12 12 Broad Effective Exchange Rate (118.81) 12 12 11 11 1 1 9 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 1 8 2-day moving average. Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan. Figure 2. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) 1 8 6 4 Eurozone (1.6) Japan (1.1) US (2.) 6 4 2 Q3 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 -6-8 -1 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 Source: Haver Analytics. -8-1 Page 1 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 8 9 1 Figure 3. US IMPORT PRICES & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (118.8) Import Price Index: Nonpetroleum Imports (yearly percent change) (-3.4) 1 11 12 Oct 12 13 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 217-1 8 Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and JP Morgan. Figure 4. PPI INTERMEDIATE GOODS EX FOOD & ENERGY & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 9 1 Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (118.8) PPI: Intermediate Goods Excluding Food & Energy (yearly percent change) (-4.) 1 11 12 13 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17-1 Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 9 1 11 12 13 Figure. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR & EXPECTED INFLATION Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) Expected Inflation in 1-Year TIPS* 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. * Yield spread between 1-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 8 Figure 6. CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 2.6 9 Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (118.8) 2.4 2.2 1 2. 1.8 11 1.6 1.4 Sep 12 PCED: Ex Food & Energy (yearly percent change) (1.3) 1.2 1. 13 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17.8 Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 7 6 Figure 7. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (billion dollars, saar) Q2 7 7 6 6 4 4 Rest of World Profits Net Receipts Payments 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6 4 4 3 3 2 Figure 8. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD (as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits*) Rest of World Profits Net Receipts Payments 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 Q2 2 1 * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
-16-14 -12-1 -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2-4 -3 Figure 9. S&P REVENUES & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Broad Effective Exchange Rate (inverted scale) (12.3) S&P Revenues (using dollars per share) (-3.2) 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 FN1 *Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Figure 1. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Q3 11/13 2 1-1 - -2-2 4 3-2 2-1 1 11/12 1 11/13-1 2 3 4 Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (12.3) S&P Forward Earnings** (-1.1) 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18-2 -3-4 Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. ** Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and JP Morgan. Page / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
4 Figure 11. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD & US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (yearly percent change) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Q2-1 -2 Receipts* (-1.8) Exports (-6.7) Sep -1-2 -3-3 -4 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16-4 * Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. 4 Figure 12. WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC* & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS 16 Sep 3 14 Oct 3 12 2 1 2 Real Merchandise Exports (billions of dollars, saar) 8 Outbound (TEUs, thousands, 12-month sum) 6 1 94 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 4 * Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Containers. TEUs=2-foot equivalent units. Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 6 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 Figure 13. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 7 9 1 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 6 11 11/13 4 12 3 12 13 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Figure 14. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 16 9 1 11 12 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 216 11/13 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 * Nearby futures price. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Copyright (c) 2. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@