Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church October 23, 2017
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE... 3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS... 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... 5 WAGE TRENDS... 6 COST OF LIVING INDEX... 6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT... 7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT... 9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS... 11 EDUCATION LEVELS... 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT... 12 REGION DEFINITION... 13 FAQ... 14 2
Demographic Profile In 2016, the population in the Fairfax / Falls Church was 1,176,830. Between 2006 and 2016, the region s population grew at an annual average rate of 1.1%. The region has a civilian labor force of 656,021 with a participation rate of 71.6%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the Fairfax / Falls Church, 61.4% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 31.3% in the nation. The median household income in the Fairfax / Falls Church is $112,502 and the median house value is $502,936. Summary 1 Percent Value Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbia USA Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbia USA Demographics Population 6 1,176,830 681,170 323,127,513 Population Annual Average Growth 6 1.1% 1.8% 0.8% 12,559 11,049 2,474,760 Median Age 2,4 37.4 33.8 37.2 Under 18 Years 4 24.2% 16.8% 24.0% 270,287 100,815 74,181,467 18 to 24 Years 4 7.7% 14.5% 9.9% 85,912 87,015 30,672,088 25 to 34 Years 4 14.6% 20.7% 13.3% 163,577 124,745 41,063,948 35 to 44 Years 4 15.2% 13.4% 13.3% 169,942 80,659 41,070,606 45 to 54 Years 4 16.1% 12.6% 14.6% 180,237 75,703 45,006,716 55 to 64 Years 4 12.2% 10.6% 11.8% 135,997 63,977 36,482,729 65 to 74 Years 4 5.8% 6.1% 7.0% 65,297 36,969 21,713,429 75 Years, and Over 4 4.1% 5.3% 6.0% 45,374 31,840 18,554,555 Race: White 4 63.0% 38.5% 72.4% 703,549 231,471 223,553,265 Race: Black or African American 4 9.0% 50.7% 12.6% 100,821 305,125 38,929,319 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 4 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 4,028 2,079 2,932,248 Race: Asian 4 17.4% 3.5% 4.8% 194,255 21,056 14,674,252 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 882 302 540,013 Race: Some Other Race 4 6.1% 4.1% 6.2% 67,776 24,374 19,107,368 Race: Two or More Races 4 4.1% 2.9% 2.9% 45,312 17,316 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4 15.5% 9.1% 16.3% 173,147 54,749 50,477,594 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 71.6% 68.3% 63.3% 656,021 373,626 158,897,824 Armed Forces Labor Force 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 10,956 3,446 1,015,464 Veterans, Age 18-64 7.1% 3.6% 5.5% 53,201 16,613 10,750,884 Median Household Income 2 $112,502 $70,848 $53,889 Per Capita Income $51,081 $47,675 $28,930 Poverty Level (of all people) 5.9% 18.0% 15.5% 68,716 110,365 47,749,043 Households Receiving Food Stamps 4.2% 14.9% 13.2% 17,079 40,686 15,399,651 Mean Commute Time (minutes) 31.9 29.7 25.9 3
Summary 1 Percent Value Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbia USA Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbia USA Commute via Public Transportation 9.9% 37.4% 5.1% 61,804 125,413 7,362,038 Union Membership 3 4.4% 9.4% 10.7% Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 7.5% 9.0% 11.8% 49,445 34,405 19,736,243 High School Graduate 12.1% 16.9% 26.4% 80,379 64,388 43,982,863 Some College, No Degree 13.6% 13.4% 21.7% 89,828 50,941 36,187,232 Associate's Degree 5.5% 3.1% 8.8% 36,322 11,920 14,742,654 Bachelor's Degree 32.2% 25.1% 19.9% 213,089 95,648 33,245,950 Postgraduate Degree 29.2% 32.4% 11.4% 193,282 123,351 18,952,103 Housing Housing Units 424,344 303,312 133,351,840 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $502,936 $475,800 $178,600 Homeowner Vacancy 0.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2,492 2,138 1,492,691 Rental Vacancy 3.5% 5.5% 6.4% 4,868 9,549 2,949,366 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 32.4% 58.8% 36.1% 131,339 160,640 42,214,214 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 4.5% 36.4% 9.1% 18,348 99,554 10,628,474 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 16,634 6,773 4,451,334 Disconnected Youth 5 1.3% 4.3% 3.0% 764 1,449 518,859 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 19.7% 56.0% 34.8% 53,719 58,080 24,408,909 With a Disability, Age 18-64 4.8% 9.1% 10.3% 36,066 41,560 19,985,588 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 56.4% 41.8% 41.0% 20,339 17,354 8,185,456 Foreign Born 29.8% 14.1% 13.2% 346,916 91,588 41,717,420 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 14.4% 5.4% 8.6% 156,882 32,636 25,410,756 Source: JobsEQ 1. ACS 2011-2015, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2016; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Census 2010 5. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 6. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since 2006 4
Employment Trends As of 2017Q2, total employment for the Fairfax / Falls Church was 673,779 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q2, employment increased 1.2% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Fairfax / Falls Church was 3.0% as of August 2017. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.5%. One year earlier, in August 2016, the unemployment rate in the Fairfax / Falls Church was 3.3%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through August 2017. 5
Wage Trends The average worker in the Fairfax / Falls Church earned annual wages of $79,019 as of 2017Q2. Average annual wages per worker increased 2.3% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $53,284 in the nation as of 2017Q2. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 54.5% higher in Fairfax / Falls Church than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Fairfax / Falls Church $79,019 154.5 $51,147 District of Columbia $89,460 152.4 $58,701 USA $53,284 100.0 $53,284 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q2 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q1, imputed by Chmura where necessary. 6
Industry Snapshot The largest sector in the Fairfax / Falls Church is Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, employing 167,416 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Health Care and Social Assistance (68,767 workers) and Retail Trade (61,594). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (LQ = 3.78), Management of Companies and Enterprises (1.83), and Information (1.61). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Sectors in the Fairfax / Falls Church with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and Enterprises ($155,526), Information ($131,468), and Wholesale Trade ($127,479). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Health Care and Social Assistance (+9,069 jobs), Accommodation and Food Services (+6,687), and Finance and Insurance (+4,316). Over the next 10 years, employment in the Fairfax / Falls Church is projected to expand by 51,261 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +2.0% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+26,367 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (+15,094), and Educational Services (+3,214). 7
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Years Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbia USA Approx Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 21 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 219 $19,971 0.02 46 4.8% -6.6% 0.8% 76-5 -0.2% 192 $84,756 0.07-5 -0.6% -12.4% -4.9% 46-3 -0.1% 22 Utilities 2,066 $97,093 0.58 39 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 519-61 -0.3% 23 Construction 30,143 $63,546 0.81-1,729-1.1% 3.1% 3.2% 6,138 2,779 0.9% 31 Manufacturing 6,348 $60,187 0.11-3,238-7.9% -1.1% 0.8% 1,382-783 -1.3% 42 Wholesale Trade 14,524 $127,479 0.55-242 -0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 3,261 680 0.5% 44 Retail Trade 61,594 $37,644 0.85 2,097 0.7% 4.0% 1.3% 18,996 33 0.0% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 13,075 $49,735 0.46 641 1.0% 2.7% 2.7% 3,252-1,126-0.9% 51 Information 21,564 $131,468 1.61-2,215-1.9% -1.2% 0.8% 5,079-914 -0.4% 52 Finance and Insurance 29,011 $124,224 1.08 4,316 3.3% -0.4% 1.1% 7,013 1,812 0.6% 53 54 55 56 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 11,703 $75,884 1.03 616 1.1% 3.1% 1.9% 2,669 675 0.6% 167,416 $120,280 3.78-8,551-1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 36,914 26,367 1.5% 18,113 $155,526 1.83-2,833-2.9% 4.8% 2.9% 3,859 320 0.2% 45,649 $54,755 1.05 2,029 0.9% 1.1% 2.6% 10,469 2,745 0.6% 61 Educational Services 54,723 $54,129 0.98 2,572 1.0% 3.4% 0.7% 11,707 3,214 0.6% 62 71 72 81 Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 68,767 $58,745 0.72 9,069 2.9% 1.2% 2.5% 14,453 15,094 2.0% 12,330 $27,539 0.92-640 -1.0% 2.7% 2.3% 3,828 663 0.5% 49,580 $23,830 0.82 6,687 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 17,504 1,433 0.3% 32,088 $43,804 1.08 776 0.5% 1.3% -0.2% 8,080 602 0.2% 92 Public Administration 33,212 $95,575 1.03 3,210 2.1% -0.4% 0.1% 7,729-2,373-0.7% 99 Unclassified 1,459 $58,825 1.07 1,459 n/a 2.5% 13.2% 366 110 0.7% - All Industries 673,779 $79,019 1.00 14,105 0.4% 1.3% 1.7% 169,095 51,261 0.7% Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8
Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in the Fairfax / Falls Church is Office and Administrative Support, employing 94,671 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Computer and Mathematical (71,269 workers) and Business and Financial Operations (67,751). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Computer and Mathematical (LQ = 3.64), Business and Financial Operations (1.96), and Legal (1.64). Occupation groups in the Fairfax / Falls Church with the highest average wages per worker are Management ($147,400), Legal ($130,000), and Computer and Mathematical ($103,400). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 0.7% among Legal to 6.2% among Food Preparation and Serving Related. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Fairfax / Falls Church is expected to be Healthcare Support with a +2.4% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Computer and Mathematical (+12,427 jobs) and Business and Financial Operations (+7,383). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and Administrative Support (20,430 jobs) and Sales and Related (19,698). Occupation Snapshot in Fairfax / Falls Church Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbi a USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11- Management 13-15- 17-19- 21-23- 25- Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 54,634 $147,400 1.34 718 1.3% -466-0.2% 1.1% 1.5% 5,084 17,180 4,967 0.9% 67,751 $90,500 1.96 1,932 2.7% -431-0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 6,916 14,663 7,383 1.0% 71,269 $103,400 3.64 1,316 2.2% -3,329-0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 18,683 11,210 12,427 1.6% 14,869 $97,600 1.30 360 2.3% -1,631-2.1% -0.2% 1.0% 815 3,827 1,082 0.7% 8,203 $93,000 1.46 345 2.9% -406-1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 686 2,401 624 0.7% 7,597 $58,700 0.71 95 1.0% 937 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 559 1,700 753 1.0% Legal 9,188 $130,000 1.64 90 0.7% -81-0.2% -0.7% 0.4% 254 1,808 334 0.4% Education, Training, and Library 37,483 $64,800 0.99 853 2.1% 1,602 0.9% 2.7% 0.8% 1,099 8,248 2,701 0.7% 27- Arts, Design, 15,067 $68,400 1.25 516 3.0% -752-1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1,283 4,834 625 0.4% 9
Occupation Snapshot in Fairfax / Falls Church Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Fairfax / Falls Church District of Columbi a USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Entertainment, Sports, and Media 29-31- 33-35- 37-39- 41-43- 45-47- 49- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 51- Production 53-00- Transportation and Material Moving 28,126 $89,500 0.73 326 1.0% 3,008 2.3% 0.5% 1.7% 1,890 6,580 4,864 1.6% 14,254 $35,600 0.75 432 3.5% 2,148 3.3% 1.7% 2.2% 582 3,272 3,776 2.4% 15,891 $51,700 1.10 482 3.1% 136 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1,329 3,185 382 0.2% 46,658 $27,600 0.81 2,806 6.2% 5,695 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2,499 18,171 1,708 0.4% 24,123 $30,300 1.01 976 4.4% 570 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 663 5,418 1,074 0.4% 23,941 $32,300 0.91 781 3.7% 1,932 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 1,146 6,957 2,800 1.1% 62,955 $52,300 0.91 2,127 3.9% 686 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 6,300 19,698 1,443 0.2% 94,671 $44,800 0.95 2,857 3.4% 4,336 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 5,137 20,430 1,088 0.1% 466 $38,000 0.10 32 4.9% 25 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 13 172-8 -0.2% 22,935 $52,200 0.76 1,071 5.3% -1,044-0.9% 2.5% 2.4% 506 4,330 2,165 0.9% 19,816 $55,000 0.77 595 3.5% 666 0.7% 0.9% 1.6% 1,183 4,763 372 0.2% 10,462 $42,700 0.26 459 4.4% -769-1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 307 2,714-50 0.0% 23,418 $38,500 0.52 1,104 4.8% 1,273 1.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1,034 6,215 749 0.3% - All 673,779 $66,500 1.00 n/a n/a 14,105 0.4% 1.3% 1.7% 58,019 167,776 51,261 0.7% Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q2 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2016Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 10
Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Fairfax / Falls Church with the highest relative concentration is Professional Svc. with a location quotient of 2.37. This cluster employs 244,837 workers in the region with an average wage of $112,174. Employment in the Professional Svc. cluster is projected to expand in the region about 1.1% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the Fairfax / Falls Church is projected to grow 0.7% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.1% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 1.1% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.0% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP in the Fairfax / Falls Church expanded 2.1%. This follows growth of 3.8% in 2015. As of 2016, total GDP in the Fairfax / Falls Church was $110,010,353,000. Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Of the sectors in the Fairfax / Falls Church, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2016, $27,460,569,000 The next-largest contributions came from Real Estate and Rental and Leasing ($18,969,112,000); Public Administration ($7,252,755,000); and Information ($7,088,909,000). Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. 12
Region Definition Fairfax / Falls Church is defined as the following counties: Fairfax County, Virginia; Fairfax City, Virginia; Falls Church City, Virginia 13
FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 14