This document is made available electronically by the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library as part of an ongoing digital archiving project. http://www.leg.state.mn.us/lrl/lrl.asp Office Memorandum Date: December 3, 2015 To: From: Subject: Legislative Reference Library Myron Frans, Commissioner Report to the Legislature - Debt Capacity Forecast Minnesota Statute 16A.105 requires the Commissioner of Management and Budget in February and November of each year to prepare a debt capacity forecast to be delivered to the governor and legislature. Attached is the November 2015 debt capacity forecast. Attachment cc: Senator Thomas M. Bakk Senator David W. Hann Senator Richard Cohen Senator LeRoy A. Stumpf Representative Kurt Daudt Representative Paul Thissen Representative Jim Knoblach Representative Paul Torkelson 658 Cedar Street 400 Centennial Office Building Saint Paul, Minnesota 55155 TTY: 1-800-627-3529 An Equal Opportunity Employer
Minnesota Management and Budget Debt Capacity Forecast November 2015 Introduction Minnesota Statute 16A.105 requires the Commissioner of Management and Budget ( MMB ) to prepare a debt capacity forecast to be delivered to the governor and legislature in February and November of each year. The capital investment guidelines are: 1. Total tax-supported principal outstanding shall be 3.25% or less of total state personal income. 2. Total amount of principal (both issued, and authorized but unissued) for state general obligations, state moral obligations, equipment capital leases, and real estate capital leases are not to exceed 6% of state personal income. 3. 40% of general obligation debt shall be due within five years and 70% within ten years, if consistent with the useful life of the financed assets and/or market conditions. These guidelines are intended to: Be consistent with measures used by the credit rating agencies and foster direct comparisons with the debt burdens of other states; Be comprehensive to ensure all kinds of tax-supported debt obligations are recognized; and Continue Minnesota s conservative financial management practices. Statement of Indebtedness The statement of indebtedness describes the amount of debt we are currently obligated to repay. As of November 30, 2015, the state of Minnesota owed $6,565,805,000 in principal for general obligation bonds (this includes both various purpose and trunk highway bonds), as well as $1,657,670,000 in principal for other tax-supported obligations, for a total of $8,223,475,000 owed as of the date of the forecast. Please see the attached exhibit for more detail about these obligations. The state has no general obligation short-term notes outstanding.
Debt Service Costs The table below provides the details of the actual and forecasted debt service costs for all of the state s tax-supported debt. For the Budget and Economic Forecast, the assumption for future capital budgets for various purpose general obligation bonds is $800 million in the even numbered legislative sessions and $230 million in the odd numbered years. For trunk highway bonds, the forecast amounts for existing bond authorizations have been prepared based upon information provided by the Department of Transportation. The column entitled Other Tax-Supported Bonds reflects the actual debt service obligations in each fiscal year for the debt identified in the exhibit; it does not reflect the total amount appropriated in each fiscal year for such obligations. The estimate for interest rates used for future bond issues is derived from the IHS Economics ( IHS ) data used to develop the November 2015 Budget and Economic Forecast. Fiscal Year *Totals may not add due to rounding. Actual Annual Debt Service Costs ($ in Thousands) General Obligation Bonds Other Tax Various Purpose Trunk Highway Fund Subtotal Supported Bonds Total 2006 actual $353,728 $36,347 $390,075 $10,629 $400,705 2007 actual $400,146 $53,752 $453,898 $14,695 $468,593 2008 actual $409,426 $52,170 $461,596 $17,999 $479,595 2009 actual $452,978 $59,542 $512,520 $24,259 $536,779 2010 actual $429,123 $70,542 $499,665 $27,640 $527,305 2011 actual $398,799 $45,225 $444,024 $30,393 $474,417 2012 actual $190,799 $72,601 $263,400 $38,194 $301,594 2013 actual $222,584 $120,305 $342,889 $49,236 $392,125 2014 actual $619,935 $136,488 $756,423 $97,492 $853,915 2015 actual $623,060 $154,593 $777,653 $147,149 $924,802 2016 forecast $609,235 $180,725 $789,960 $148,484 $938,444 2017 forecast $631,618 $206,670 $838,288 $149,295 $987,582 2018 forecast $587,430 $220,638 $808,068 $148,384 $956,452 2019 forecast $619,097 $225,911 $845,008 $147,018 $992,025 2020 forecast $596,786 $221,881 $818,667 $137,751 $956,418 2021 forecast $623,696 $214,906 $838,602 $137,501 $976,103 2022 forecast $615,345 $205,400 $820,745 $137,409 $958,154 Debt Authorized and Unissued The state has authorized but not yet issued (sold) general obligation bonds for various purposes and trunk highway purposes totaling $1,196,011,800 as of November 30, 2015. In addition to the general obligation 3
bonds, the state has appropriation bonds that are authorized that have not been sold. The 2014 Legislature authorized the sale of $80 million of state appropriation bonds to finance the Housing Finance Agency Housing Infrastructure bonding program, of which $11.335 million remains unissued as of November 2015. The 2015 Legislature authorized an additional $10 million in state appropriation bonds to finance the Housing Finance Agency Housing Infrastructure bonding program and $19 million for the Lewis and Clark Regional Water System, of which none of the bonds for these authorizations have been issued. Additional bond authorizations of state appropriation bonds include $10 million to finance the pay for performance bond program. None of the debt for these programs has been issued. The total amount of authorized and unissued tax-supported obligations is $1,246,346,800. All other currently authorized tax supported bond projects and/or programs have been issued. Debt Capacity The capital investment guidelines reflect a current fiscal year point in time calculation. Total state personal income is derived from the IHS data used to develop the November 2015 Budget and Economic Forecast and reflects the state 2016 fiscal year (not the 2015 calendar year). For any given bond authorization, bonds are typically sold over several years to make the funds available for the projects when needed, and not sooner. Capacity Calculations as of November 2015 Forecast: Guideline #1 compares the amount of tax-supported debt already sold to state personal income. Based on the information below, the state is below the 3.25% threshold. We are within our guideline. Tax-supported principal sold $8.223 billion FY 2016 state personal income estimate IHS forecast $283.975 billion As a percent of state personal income, not to exceed 3.25% 2.90% Estimate of maximum amount of tax-supported debt that could be sold today before exceeding Guideline #1* $1.006 billion* *Bonds authorized are typically not sold all at once; they are sold over several years. Guideline #2 compares the amount of debt that has already been sold and the amount that has been authorized in law but not yet sold to state personal income. This guideline includes tax-supported debt, state moral obligations, equipment capital lease, and real estate capital leases. Based on the information below, the state is below the 6% threshold. We are within our guideline. Total principal sold plus authorized and not yet sold $11.069 billion FY 2016 state personal income estimate IHS forecast $283.975 billion As a percent of state personal income, not to exceed 6.0% 3.90% Estimated maximum amount of tax-supported debt that could be authorized before exceeding Guideline #2 $5.969 billion 4
Guideline #3 evaluates how quickly we pay off our general obligation bonds. Our goal is that no less than 40% of our general obligation debt is paid within five years and no less than 70% within ten years. Of the State s general obligation bonds outstanding on June 30, 2015, 40.3 percent were scheduled to mature within five years and 71.0 percent were scheduled to mature with ten years. Furthermore, of the State s general obligation bonds expected to be outstanding on June 30, 2016, 40.3 percent are scheduled to mature within five years and 71.2 percent are scheduled to mature with ten years. 5
Tax-Supported Debt (Guideline #1) Principal Outstanding Authorized, Unissued Total All State General Obligation Debt $ 6,565,805,000 $ 1,196,011,800 $ 7,761,816,800 Certificates of Participation (SWIFT/Integrated Tax) 31,830,000 0 31,830,000 BCA Bemidji Lease Revenue Bonds 3,875,000 0 3,875,000 Other Real Estate Capital Leases: Ag/Health Buildings 47,030,000 0 47,030,000 DHS Building 56,195,000 0 56,195,000 MHFA Supportive Housing 2008 27,270,000 0 27,270,000 MHFA Housing Infrastructure 2012 27,430,000 0 27,430,000 MHFA Housing Infrastructure 2014 63,665,000 11,335,000 75,000,000 MHFA Housing Infrastructure 2015 10,000,000 10,000,000 U of M: TCF Bank Stadium 99,220,000 0 99,220,000 Biosciences Facilities 182,420,000 0 182,420,000 State General Fund Appropriation Refunding Bonds 584,865,000 0 584,865,000 Professional Football Stadium Appropriation Bonds 453,770,000 0 453,770,000 Certificates of Participation - Legislative Office Facility 80,100,000 0 80,100,000 Lewis and Clark Regional Water System Bonds 0 19,000,000 19,000,000 Pay for Performance Appropriation Bonds 0 10,000,000 10,000,000 TOTAL - Tax-Supported Debt $ 8,223,475,000 $ 1,246,346,800 $ 9,469,821,800 Other Obligations (Guideline #2) Capital Investment Guidelines Summary of Outstanding Principal as of 11/30/2015 As of November 2015 Budget and Economic Forecast Tax-Supported Debt (issued and authorized but unissued) $ 9,469,821,800 MHFA Moral Obligation Debt (1) 1,097,540,000 MOHE Moral Obligation Debt 471,015,000 Equipment Leases 30,975,621 TOTAL - All Obligations $ 11,069,352,421 FY 2016 State Personal Income Estimate - IHS Forecast: 283,975,000,000 State Tax-Supported Debt as a Percent of Personal Income: 2.90% Estimated maximum additional principal capacity for all tax-supported debt @ 3.25% $ 1,005,712,500 All Obligations as a Percent of Personal Income: 3.90% Estimated maximum additional principal capacity for all obligations @ 6.0% $ 5,969,147,579 (1) MHFA has a $5 billion statutory debt limit. How ever, several of the MHFA bonding programs are not issued as Moral Obligation debt. The bond programs that are not included because they are not secured by a debt service reserve fund subject to replenishment from Legislative appropriation are the conduit multifamily revenue bonds and bonds issued under Home Ow nership Mortgage-backed Exempt Securities and Homeow nership Finance Bonds. 6