PREQIN QUARTERLY UPDATE: REAL ESTATE Q2 218 Insight on the quarter from the leading provider of alternative assets data Content includes: Fundraising Fund Launches Funds in Market Deals Institutional Investors Dry Powder & Fund Performance
PREQIN QUARTERLY UPDATE: REAL ESTATE, Q2 218 FOREWORD - Oliver Senchal, Preqin The private real estate industry entered Q2 on the back of the best opening quarter in recent history. Both capital raised and deal flow were strong, and helping to drive investor appetite was the fact that distributions continued to exceed capital calls by a significant margin, demonstrating that the late cycle concerns were merely about perspective. Yes, to invest in this environment still presents significant challenges when valuations are continuing to rise, but many funds are sitting on record levels of dry powder, which means not only can they act quickly but can also effectively drive negotiations for attractive assets. For those that are ready to dispose of property, the demand is there from a wide variety of participants both locally and internationally. So, has this momentum continued into Q2? In a nutshell, no. Both fundraising and deal flow are not only down on Q1 results but are also relatively weak compared to recent quarterly levels. Even without the level of $1bn+ fundraises we saw in Q1, the average fund size remained high a reflection of the bifurcation of the fundraising market. Further illustrating this point despite the decline in aggregate deal value Blackstone were able to close a deal on Gramercy Property Trust for $7.6bn, representing 12% of the total quarterly value. Concerns over a downturn are still evident, not only from the increase in appetite for debt funds we have seen in recent years and the downside risk protection they offer, but also from the mandates that institutional investors are putting out. Indicators appear to be moving from opportunity funds down the spectrum towards value added and core-plus vehicles, although this does not mean that the higher-risk vehicles are dead: the $1.85bn raised for Kayne Anderson s opportunistic Real Estate Partners V is evidence of experienced firms ability to capture the attention of investors at any stage in the cycle. As it stands, the Federal Reserve s increase in rates in June with more planned throughout the year and into 219 will have an impact on how attractive the asset class will look relative to other forms of investment, traditional or alternative. However, we are at a new quarterly record of available capital which should filter down into deal markets over H2, and the fundraising market is on the cusp of some mega fund closures. As such, Q2 may just be a blip on the way to another strong year for the industry. We hope that you find this report useful and welcome any feedback you may have. For more information, please visit www.preqin.com or contact info@preqin.com. p3 p5 p6 p7 p9 p1 p11 Fundraising Fund Launches Funds in Market Deals Institutional Investors Dry Powder Fund Performance PREQIN S REAL ESTATE DATA Preqin s award-winning real estate data covers all aspects of the asset class, including fund managers, fund performance, fundraising and institutional investors. Our comprehensive platform is ideal for fund marketers and investor relations professionals focused on the real estate asset class. www.preqin.com/realestate All rights reserved. The entire contents of Preqin Quarterly Update: Real Estate, Q2 218 are the Copyright of Preqin Ltd. No part of this publication or any information contained in it may be copied, transmitted by any electronic means, or stored in any electronic or other data storage medium, or printed or published in any document, report or publication, without the express prior written approval of Preqin Ltd. The information presented in Preqin Quarterly Update: Real Estate, Q2 218 is for information purposes only and does not constitute and should not be construed as a solicitation or other offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction, or as advice of any nature whatsoever. If the reader seeks advice rather than information then he should seek an independent financial advisor and hereby agrees that he will not hold Preqin Ltd. responsible in law or equity for any decisions of whatever nature the reader makes or refrains from making following its use of Preqin Quarterly Update: Real Estate, Q2 218. While reasonable efforts have been made to obtain information from sources that are believed to be accurate, and to confirm the accuracy of such information wherever possible, Preqin Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty that the information or opinions contained in Preqin Quarterly Update: Real Estate, Q2 218 are accurate, reliable, up-to-date or complete. Although every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication Preqin Ltd. does not accept any responsibility for any errors or omissions within Preqin Quarterly Update: Real Estate, Q2 218 or for any expense or other loss alleged to have arisen in any way with a reader s use of this publication. 2 Preqin Ltd. 218 / www.preqin.com
DOWNLOAD DATA PACK: www.preqin.com/quarterlyupdate FUNDRAISING Following the fundraising market s most successful opening quarter of recent times, Q2 faced an uphill struggle to continue the early momentum. The 47 funds closed raised a combined $22bn, the lowest quarterly total since 213 (Fig. 1). The lack of mega funds is the reason behind the decline, with Q1 s two largest funds securing a combined $15bn, while Q2 s largest vehicles, Landmark Real Estate Fund VIII and Kayne Anderson Real Estate Partners V, raised $5.2bn collectively. From 215 to 217, 182 funds, on average, have closed in the first half of the year, securing aggregate capital of $63bn. H1 218 is currently below average for the number of funds closed (121) and aggregate capital raised ($6bn), but as more information becomes available we do expect capital raised to match or surpass prior H1 totals, although the average number of products will lag significantly behind. Value added and opportunistic funds accounted for two-thirds of fund closures and capital raised in Q2 (Fig. 2), in line with previous quarters. Landmark s fund closure meant that secondaries vehicles represented just 2% of products closed in Q2 but nearly 1 of total fund commitments. North America represented the primary focus for the majority of funds closed (32 funds and $14bn, Fig. 4). However, it is worth noting that even though there were fewer Europe- and Asia- Fig. 1: Global Quarterly Closed-End Private Real Estate Fundraising, Q1 213 - Q2 218 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 138 124 112 16 99 1 92 92 85 88 88 95 84 78 7 71 75 74 67 69 56 47 4 42 43 36 37 37 37 4 37 29 28 3 27 25 24 28 26 27 24 25 22 11 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 213 214 215 216 217 218 Date of Final Close No. of Funds Closed Aggregate Capital Raised ($bn) Fig. 2: Closed-End Private Real Estate Fundraising in Q2 218 by Primary Strategy Proportion of Total 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 22 3.3.1 3.7 1.8 4 1.2 2.2 6 3.1 No. of Funds Closed Aggregate Capital Raised ($bn) Secondaries Fund of Funds Distressed Opportunistic Value Added Core-Plus Core Debt Fig. 3: Largest Private Real Estate Funds Closed in Q2 218 Fund Firm Headquarters Fund Size (mn) Primary Strategy Geographic Focus Landmark Real Estate Fund VIII Landmark Partners US 3,3 USD Secondaries Global Kayne Anderson Real Estate Partners V Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors US 1,85 USD Opportunistic US GreenOak US III GreenOak US US 1,55 USD Value Added US Blackstone Tactical Opportunities RI Fund Blackstone Group US 1,2 USD Debt UK AEW Value Investors Asia III AEW Capital Management US 1,12 USD Value Added Asia NREP Nordic Strategies Fund III NREP Denmark 93 EUR Value Added Europe Waterton Residential Property Venture XIII Waterton US 91 USD Value Added US AG Europe Realty Fund II Angelo, Gordon & Co US 843 USD Value Added West Europe Tricon US Single-Family Venture Tricon Capital Group Canada 75 USD Value Added US Brunswick Real Estate Capital II Brunswick Real Estate Sweden 64 EUR Debt Nordic 3
PREQIN QUARTERLY UPDATE: REAL ESTATE, Q2 218 focused funds closed during the quarter, the average size of these funds was larger than those in North America. Globally, average fund size has decreased from Q1 218, but remains nearly $1mn higher than the average fund size of Q2 217 (Fig. 5). Funds closed in 218 so far spent an average of 19.1 months on the road Those private funds that did reach a final close have generally been oversubscribed nearly half (49%) of vehicles closed in Q2 surpassed their initial target size, slightly above the Q1 figure (44%, Fig. 6). Adding the 16% of funds that hit their target, Q2 was relatively successful for funds that reached a final close. Fig. 4: Closed-End Private Real Estate Fundraising in Q2 218 by Primary Geographic Focus Proportion of Total 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1.4 3 1.7 11 6.4 32 No. of Funds Closed 14.3 Aggregate Capital Raised ($bn) Rest of World Asia Europe North America Fig. 5: Average Size of Closed-End Private Real Estate Funds, Q1 213 - Q2 218 Average Fund Size ($mn) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 423 49 385 352 313 38 286 392 354 66 293 25 446 396 375 298 429 395 624 553 521 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 213 214 215 216 217 218 Date of Final Close Fig. 6: Proportion of Target Size Achieved by Closed-End Private Real Estate Funds, Q3 217 - Q2 218 Proportion of Funds 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 18% 22% 27% 32% 12% 16% 24% 22% 27% 26% 16% 22% 37% 18% 3 4% 12% Q3 217 Q4 217 Q1 218 Q2 218 Date of Final Close 12 or More 11-124% 1 5-99% Less than 5 PREQIN CAN HELP YOU FUNDRAISE The real estate fundraising landscape is more competitive than ever: more than 6 funds are on the road seeking over $2bn in aggregate capital commitments. With industry-leading data and tools, Preqin can help find those investors that are the best match for your vehicle. Preqin s award-winning real estate data covers all aspects of the asset class, including fund managers, fund performance, fundraising and institutional investors. This comprehensive platform is ideal for fund marketers and investor relations professionals focused on real estate funds. To find out more, please visit: www.preqin.com/realestate 4 Preqin Ltd. 218 / www.preqin.com
DOWNLOAD DATA PACK: www.preqin.com/quarterlyupdate FUND LAUNCHES Fund launches typically decline from Q1 to Q2, and the first half of 218 has followed this trend. Notably, both H1 217 and H1 218 have seen the fewest fund launches in recent history (Fig. 7), likely due to the concentration of capital commitments in fewer funds and a fundraising market that has become increasingly competitive (see page 6: Funds in Market). There has been no real shift in where launch activity is coming from: North America remains the epicentre of private real estate activity and, as such, managers based in the region represented nearly two-thirds of launches in Q2 (Fig. 8). Unsurprisingly, this is reflected in the primary geographic focus of funds launched, with 57% of funds launched in Q2 targeting investment in the region (Fig. 9). While value added and opportunistic funds have historically dominated quarterly launches, Q2 has seen value added funds represent a smaller share of launch activity than the strategy has done over the previous half year (Fig. 1). This is despite the large proportion of investor searches including a value added mandate in Q2 (see page 9: Institutional Investors). Fig. 7: Quarterly Closed-End Private Real Estate Fund Launches, Q1 213 - Q2 218 Fig. 8: Closed-End Private Real Estate Fund Launches by Fund Manager Headquarters, Q2 217 - Q2 218 No. of Fund Launches 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 71 73 68 57 53 54 46 45 42 4 65 57 59 51 55 47 45 44 45 4 35 21 Proportion of Fund Launches 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 7% 3% 7% 7% 11% 14% 7% 23% 67% 64% 29% 54% 67% 24% 62% Rest of World Asia Europe North America Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 213 214 215 216 217 218 217 218 Fig. 9: Closed-End Private Real Estate Fund Launches by Primary Geographic Focus, Q2 217 - Q2 218 Fig. 1: Closed-End Private Real Estate Fund Launches by Primary Strategy, Q2 217 - Q2 218 Proportion of Fund Launches 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 11% 11% 11% 13% 14% 9% 7% 17% 13% 14% 13% 14% 6 61% 51% 6 57% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Rest of World Asia Europe North America Proportion of Fund Launches 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 16% 17% 27% 19% 4 36% 43% 4 38% 2% 3% 22% 16% 17% 11% 9% 19% 16% 19% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Secondaries Fund of Funds Distressed Opportunistic Value Added Core-Plus Core Debt 217 218 217 218 5
PREQIN QUARTERLY UPDATE: REAL ESTATE, Q2 218 FUNDS IN MARKET At the beginning of Q3 218, there are 624 closed-end private real estate funds in market targeting an aggregate $26bn in investor capital (Fig. 11). This represents the first quarterly decline in the number of products available to investors in over two years, and comes in the wake of concerns that the market is oversaturated with opportunities at present. North America-focused funds on the road continue to dominate the fundraising landscape: 388 funds are seeking a combined $125bn in capital commitments, representing 61% of targeted capital (Fig. 12). All six of the largest closed-end private real estate funds in market have exposure to the region, including TPG Real Estate Fund III which solely focuses on investments in the US. While value added and opportunistic funds together constitute the majority (58%) of funds in market, seeking $119bn in aggregate capital, real estate debt funds are also gaining traction (Fig. 13). There are nearly as many debt funds open to investment as there are core and core-plus vehicles, while the capital targeted by these vehicles is now only $3bn less than for opportunistic funds. Competition for higher-risk/return assets could be playing a part in the shift (more details available in Preqin Special Report: Real Estate Fund Manager Outlook, H1 218), as could the move to greater downside risk protection required in institutional Fig. 11: Closed-End Private Real Estate Funds in Market over Time, Q1 215 - Q3 218 (As at July 218) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 portfolios a product of late cycle concerns. Three of the six largest funds in market include a debt component (Fig. 14), including TCI Real Estate Partners Fund III which is solely focusing on debt through the provision of secured lending on prime real estate assets in the US and Western Europe. 624 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 215 216 217 218 No. of Funds Raising Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn) 26 Fig. 12: Closed-End Private Real Estate Funds in Market by Primary Geographic Focus (As at July 218) Proportion of Total 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 29 1 61 2 146 51 388 125 No. of Funds Raising Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn) Rest of World Asia Europe North America Fig. 13: Closed-End Private Real Estate Funds in Market by Primary Strategy (As at July 218) Proportion of Total 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 7 7 4 1.2 131 53 229 66 53 13 19 77 117 No. of Funds Raising 5 Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn) Secondaries Fund of Funds Distressed Opportunistic Value Added Core-Plus Core Debt Fig. 14: Largest Closed-End Private Real Estate Funds in Market (As at July 218) Fund Firm Target Size (mn) Strategy Geographic Focus Brookfield Strategic Real Estate Partners III Brookfield Property Group 1, USD Debt, Opportunistic, Value Added Global Cerberus Global NPL Fund Cerberus Real Estate Capital Management 4, USD Debt, Distressed Global CIM Fund IX CIM Group 3, USD Opportunistic North America Digital Colony Partners Colony NorthStar 3, USD Opportunistic, Value Added Global TCI Real Estate Partners Fund III TCI Real Estate Partners 3, USD Debt Europe, North America TPG Real Estate Fund III TPG Real Estate 3, USD Opportunistic, Value Added US 6 Preqin Ltd. 218 / www.preqin.com
DOWNLOAD DATA PACK: www.preqin.com/quarterlyupdate DEALS In the second quarter of 218, there was a reduction in both the number and value of private equity real estate (PERE) deals from Q1, with 1,295 transactions completed for $62bn. With these figures down one-fifth from the previous quarter, Q2 218 represents the second consecutive quarterly decline in deal activity. The slowdown can be attributed to rising prices for assets, with fund managers moving to the lower end of the market for deal flow: two-thirds of transactions in Q2 were valued at less than $5mn, compared with 59% one year prior. This does not mean large transactions did not occur Blackstone Group s $7.6bn acquisition of Gramercy Property Trust in May makes it one of the largest real estate deals of recent times. As a result, the proportion of deals by asset type has skewed in favour of operating companies (Fig. 16). Though, having said this, there has been an increase in the proportion of value attributed to residential deals (1 in Q2 217 to 27% in Q2 218), to the detriment of office transactions, which fell from 36% to 28%. Following the increase in lower-value transactions, there has been a two-percentage-point increase from Q2 217 in the proportion of PERE deals completed for assets smaller than 1,ft². These smaller deals also represent an increased proportion of total deal value, up nine percentage points in Q2 218 from 8% in Q2 217. Fig. 15: Quarterly PERE Deals, Q1 214 - Q2 218 No. of Deals 2, 2 1,8 1,628 1,719 18 1,6 1,515 1,4 1,467 1,464 1,572 1,623 16 1,4 1,2 1,33 1,278 1,84 1,121 1,415 1,275 1,378 1,311 1,295 14 12 1, 938 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 214 215 216 217 218 No. of Deals Aggregate Deal Value ($bn) The make-up of deals by transaction type in Q2 218 has remained relatively similar to Q2 217, with the differences being the number of single-asset deals increasing by three percentage points and the aggregate value of those single-asset deals increasing by two percentage points from Q2 217. Aggregate Deal Value ($bn) Fig. 16: PERE Deals by Primary Asset Type, 214 - Q2 218 1 Operating Company 9 Niche 8 7 Land 6 Hotel 5 Mixed Use 4 Industrial 3 Retail Residential Office Proportion of Total 214 - Q2 218 Q2 217 Q2 218 214 - Q2 218 Q2 217 Q2 218 Fig. 17: Quarterly PERE Deal Flow by Region, Q1 214 - Q2 218 No. of Deals 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 24 8 342 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 214 215 216 217 218 921 No. of Deals Aggregate Deal Value North America Europe Asia Rest of World 7
PREQIN QUARTERLY UPDATE: REAL ESTATE, Q2 218 Fig. 18: Largest PERE Deals in North America in Q2 218 Asset(s) Buyer(s) Seller(s) Location Asset Type Deal Size (mn) Deal Date Gramercy Property Trust Blackstone Group Gramercy Property Trust US Operating Company 7,6 USD May-18 US, Multifamily Portfolio Starrett City Brookfield Property Group Brooksville Company, Rockpoint Group 1745 Broadway Invesco Real Estate US, Residential Portfolio Related Companies Carmel Partners Ewa Beach, US, Glendale, US, Los Angeles, US, New York, US, Northridge, US, Pleasanton, US Residential 1,9 USD May-18 Unidentified Seller(s) New York, US Residential 95 USD May-18 Ivanhoé Cambridge, SL Green Realty Apartment Investment and Management Company New York, US Office 633 USD Apr-18 San Francisco, US Residential 59 USD Apr-18 Fig. 19: Largest PERE Deals in Europe in Q2 218 Asset(s) Buyer(s) Seller(s) Location Asset Type Deal Size (mn) Deal Date Netherlands, Diversified Portfolio Vesteda Group NN Group Netherlands Mixed Use 1,5 EUR Jun-18 Ropemaker Place Devonshire Square Amsterdam, Netherlands, Diversified Portfolio 114 Av. des Champs- Élysées Ho Bee Land PFA Pension, TH Real Estate, WeWork AXA Investment Managers Real Assets, Gingko Tree Investment, Hanwha Group London Office 65 GBP May-18 Blackstone Group London Mixed Use 6 GBP Apr-18 HighBrook Investors Breevast Amsterdam Mixed Use 615 EUR Apr-18 Hines, Universal- Investment EPI Group Paris, France Retail 6 EUR Apr-18 Fig. 2: Largest PERE Deals in Asia in Q2 218 Asset(s) Buyer(s) Seller(s) Location Asset Type Deal Size (mn) Deal Date Mumbai, India, Office Portfolio Ascendas-Singbridge Unidentified Seller(s) Mumbai, India Office 9,3 INR May-18 Japan, Diversified Portfolio Osaka, Japan, Hotel Portfolio Logiport Icheon Kumho Asiana Main Tower Nomura Real Estate Asset Management Unidentified Seller(s) Kawasaki, Japan, Tokyo, Japan Residential 14,496 JPY Apr-18 Ascendas-Singbridge Unidentified Seller(s) Osaka, Japan Mixed Use 1, JPY Jun-18 Deutsche Asset Management CPP Investment Board, GIC Unidentified Seller(s) Gyeonggi-do, South Korea Industrial 61,2 KRW Apr-18 Kumho Asiana Group Seoul, South Korea Office 4,18 KRW May-18 Fig. 21: Largest PERE Deals in Rest of World in Q2 218 Asset(s) Buyer(s) Seller(s) Location Asset Type Deal Size (mn) Deal Date Westpac Place Mirvac Funds Management Blackstone Group Sydney, Australia Office 722 AUD Jun-18 VXV Office Portfolio Blackstone Group GIC, Goodman New Zealand Office 635 NZD May-18 Grand Plaza Invesco Real Estate CPP Investment Board, Future Fund Brisbane, Australia Retail 215 AUD Apr-18 8 Grenfell Street Centuria Property Funds, Lederer Group Blackstone Group Adelaide, Australia Office 185 AUD May-18 117 Clarence Street Investa Property Group Roxy-Pacific Holdings Limited, Unidentified Seller(s) Sydney, Australia Office 153 AUD Jun-18 8 Preqin Ltd. 218 / www.preqin.com
DOWNLOAD DATA PACK: www.preqin.com/quarterlyupdate INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS Investors seeking new private real estate fund commitments in the next 12 months are largely looking for exposure to value added (58%), core-plus (51%) and core (49%) strategies (Fig. 22). The increase in the proportion of fund searches issued for both value added and core-plus funds, and away from opportunistic funds, is representative of an industry where investors are increasingly seeking to de-risk portfolios in light of the current market conditions. Institutions are typically planning to make larger commitments than a year ago, with the proportion seeking to invest $1mn or more in the next 12 months increasing from 34% to 42%, and those seeking to commit more than $6mn to private real estate funds increasing from 3% to 11% (Fig. 24). However, this capital is likely to be deployed across fewer funds, with 37% of investors planning just one commitment in the year ahead, compared to 24% a year ago (Fig. 25). Europe remains the most targeted region among institutional investors: 6 of fund searches issued in Q2 included a European mandate (Fig. 23). With no real shift in priorities over the coming year when compared to historical investor mandates, North America remains a key target in the year ahead, along with global opportunities. Fig. 22: Strategies Targeted by Private Real Estate Investors in the Next 12 Months, Q2 217 vs. Q2 218 Proportion of Fund Searches 7 6 5 4 3 24% 17% Debt 49% 51% 47% Core 34% Core-Plus 58% 5 5 4 Value Added Opportunistic 6% Distressed Q2 217 Q2 218 Fig. 23: Regions Targeted by Private Real Estate Investors in the Next 12 Months, Q2 217 vs. Q2 218 Proportion of Fund Searches 7 6 5 4 3 42% 4 North America 54% 6 Europe 27% 2 Asia-Pacific 2% Rest of World 7% 8% Emerging Markets 38% 34% Global Q2 217 Q2 218 Strategy Targeted Region Targeted Fig. 24: Amount of Capital Investors Plan to Commit to Private Real Estate Funds in the Next 12 Months, Q2 217 vs. Q2 218 Proportion of Fund Searches 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3% 12% 18% 21% 11% 13% 18% 13% 4 44% $6mn or More $3-599mn $1-299mn $5-99mn Less than $5mn Fig. 25: Number of Private Real Estate Funds Investors Plan to Commit to in the Next 12 Months, Q2 217 vs. Q2 218 Proportion of Fund Searches 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 7% 28% 43% 24% 37% 37% 1 Funds or More 4-9 Funds 2-3 Funds 1 Fund Q2 217 Q2 218 Q2 217 Q2 218 9
PREQIN QUARTERLY UPDATE: REAL ESTATE, Q2 218 DRY POWDER Fundraising has remained robust throughout the first half of 218, as has the amount of capital available for deployment. Dry powder held by real estate firms stands at $278bn as at June 218 (Fig. 26), although this does mark the first decline in the monthly figure since the end of 217 (Fig. 27). North America-focused dry powder totals dwarf those of other regions, with the $176bn held at the beginning of H2 218 representing 63% of available capital globally (Fig. 28). Furthermore, dry powder totals for the region have grown faster than any others over the quarter, with Europe up 2%, Asia down 6% and all other regions combined up 1%. There has been no change in the share of dry powder held across real estate strategies over the quarter. Debt dry powder continues to climb, with capital ready to be deployed sitting at $53bn as at June, up 6% from March the fastest growth of any top-level strategy (Fig. 29). As such, debt continues to catch up with the higher-risk equity strategies, with value added dry powder up over the quarter to $69bn and opportunistic dry powder down 3% to $18bn. Fig. 26: Closed-End Private Real Estate Dry Powder, 27-218 Dry Powder ($bn) 3 25 2 15 1 5 165 168 176 15 161 135 21 194 228 237 249 274 278 Fig. 27: Monthly Closed-End Private Real Estate Dry Powder, 217-218 Dry Powder ($bn) 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 245 254 241 249 25 253 249 263 271 274 282 284 278 22 Fig. 28: Closed-End Private Real Estate Dry Powder by Fund Primary Geographic Focus, 27-218 Dry Powder ($bn) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-7 Mar-18 Dec-8 Jun-18 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 176 64 3 8 Fig. 29: Closed-End Private Real Estate Dry Powder by Primary Strategy, 27-218 Dry Powder ($bn) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 18 69 53 18 14 12 North America Europe Asia Rest of World Debt Core Core-Plus Value Added Opportunistic Distressed 1 Preqin Ltd. 218 / www.preqin.com
DOWNLOAD DATA PACK: www.preqin.com/quarterlyupdate FUND PERFORMANCE Closed-end private real estate funds of recent vintages have median returns typically within the low- to mid-teens bracket, although 215 vintage funds posted a median net IRR of 11.8% (Fig. 3). While these vehicles are still early on in their lifespan, encouragingly, median returns have not deviated substantially from the average seen in post-crisis years. Top-quartile fund performance remains robust, with managers needing to deliver 19% to reach this barrier achieved by top performers for funds of vintage 212 and beyond. The spread between top and bottom quartiles remains wide (c.1bps in post-crisis vintages) and highlights the challenge for allocators in identifying opportunities. The inherent characteristics of debt vehicles have produced less volatile returns of around the mark for recent vintages, whereas for equity strategies, the same can be said of core and core-plus funds relative to their peers across all vintages (Fig. 31). Opportunistic and value-added funds have produced the highest median net IRRs for fund vintages since 29, at around 16% and 1 respectively. Not only have fund managers produced high returns for investors in recent years, but they have also been effective at redistributing this capital. The latest data shows that although full-year 217 distributions have failed to match the record levels seen in 216, the $194bn returned is still substantial relative to the prior years (Fig. 33). Furthermore, the difference between capital calls and distributions (net cash flow to LPs) remains positive at $69bn, and in line with totals seen in 214 and 215. The net result is that investors in real estate are becoming more liquid, and are having to deploy more capital to remain in line with target allocations. These factors strong performance, distributions and investor liquidity are the main drivers behind fund managers success in raising their vehicles in recent years. Fig. 3: Closed-End Private Real Estate: Median Net IRRs and Quartile Boundaries by Vintage Year 3 Fig. 31: Closed-End Private Real Estate: Median Net IRRs by Fund Type 3 Net IRR since Inception 2 1 - Top Quartile Net IRR Boundary Median Net IRR Bottom Quartile Net IRR Boundary 2 1 Debt Core/Core-Plus Opportunistic Value Added - - 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Median Net IRR since Inception 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Vintage Year Vintage Year Fig. 32: Closed-End Private Real Estate: Median Net IRRs by Geographic Focus and Vintage Year Fig. 33: Closed-End Private Real Estate: Annual Amount Called up, Distributed and Net Cash Flow, 2 - Q3 217 3 Median Net IRR since Inception 1 - North America Europe Asia & Rest of World 25 2 15 1 5-5 - 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215-1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Vintage Year Capital Called up ($bn) Capital Distributed ($bn) Net Cash Flow ($bn) 11
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