Jefferson Lab User s Workshop and Annual Meeting The Next Seven Years Report from APS Michael Lubell APS Director of Public Affairs American Physical Society
U.S. Physics Publications Stagnant 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 United States Western Europe Rest Physical Review Submissions
Foreign Countries Rapidly Build S&T Infrastructure Number of Phd's More Ph.D.s Thousands 20 15 10 5 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 United States Asia (Chn, Ind, Jpn, S.Korea, Twn Degrees Granted in Engineering, Natural Sciences, and Math/Comp. Sciences, by Region Larger United Increases States Asia in Applications (Chn, Ind, Jpn, S. Kor, Twn) for U.S. Patents 900% South Korea Taiwan Percentage Increase Since 1989 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Israel Australia United States Japan Germany France United Kingdom US Residents Submit Majority of Applications Larger Share of S&T publications Asia United States Western Europe 0 10 20 30 40 Source: 2002 NSF Science and Engineering Indicators R&D JOBS
Fewer Americans Studying these Fields Graduate Students in Engineering, Physical Sciences, & Math/Comp. Sciences in U.S. institutions Full-Time Graduate Students 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 U.S. Students and Permanent Residents Foreign Students 50,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: National Science Foundation Division of Science Resources Suties: Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering: Fall 2001 Relative Change in Bachelors Degrees Awarded Since 1985-6 Biological sciences/life sciences Physical sciences and science technologies Engineering Mathematics Computer and information sciences +71% 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 -11% -21% -28% -36% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), "Degrees and Other Formal Awards Conferred" surveys, and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), "Completions" surveys. From Statement of Scott Donnelly, Senior Vice President for Global Research, General Electric Company, Before the House Science Committee, SubCommittee on Research, March 13, 2002.
Students and Federal Funding Show High Correlation Federal R&D, $M, non-biomedical (constant 1996 dollars) 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Bachelor s Degrees in Physical Sciences, Math, Engineering Budget Data Table D in National Patterns of Research and Development Resources: 2000 Data Update (NSF Pub 01-309), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Also, the NIH Almanac (NIH Pub. 01-5), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 2001. Student Data Science and Engineering Degrees 1966-1998 (NSF Pub 01-325), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 2001. Pre-1966 data: Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80. A Source Book. Special Edition. National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 1982.
Declining Share of GDP invested in Physical Sciences,Engineering, Math & Computer Sciences Percent of GDP 0.28% 0.26% 0.24% 0.22% 0.20% 0.18% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Ratio of Federal Funding for Physical Sciences, Engineering and Math & Computer Sciences to GDP
Trends in Federal Research by Discipline, FY 1970-2003 obligations in billions of constant FY 2003 dollars $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development FY 2001, 2002, and 2003, 2003. FY 2002 and 2003 data are preliminary. Constant-dollar conversions based on OMB's GDP deflators. AUGUST '03 2003 AAAS Life Scis. Engineering Physical Scis. Env. Scis. Math / Comp. Scis. Social Sciences Psychology Other * * - Other includes research not classified (includes basic research and applied research; excludes development and R&D facilities)
Composition of the Proposed FY 2005 Budget Total Outlays = $2.4 trillion Other mandatory Net interest Defense discretionary [Defense R&D] Int'l discretionary Medicaid Domestic discretionary Medicare Social Security [Nondefense R&D] Note: Projected Unified deficit is $363 billion. Source: AAAS, based on Budget of the United States Government FY 2005. FEB. '04 2004 AAAS
Federal Budget Deficit (or Surplus), FY 1960-2009 in billions of CONSTANT FY 2004 dollars 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 400 200 0-200 -400-600 Data in fiscal years. Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2005. FY 2004 data are estimates. FY 2005-2009 data are budget projections. FEB. '04 2004 AAAS Unified budget (incl. Social Security) On-budget (without Social Security)
FY 2005 R&D Request Percent Change from FY 2004 DHS DOT NASA NSF NIH DOE USDA Interior Commerce VA EPA DOD "S&T" -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: AAAS, based on OMB R&D Budget Data and agency estimates for FY 2005. DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories plus medical research. MARCH '04 REVISED 2004 AAAS
Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009 in billions of constant FY 2004 dollars 30 25 20 15 10 NIH All Other Nondefense R&D NASA 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: AAAS analysis Projected Effects of President's FY 2005 Budget on Nondefense R&D APRIL '04 2004 AAAS
Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009 in billions of constant FY 2004 dollars 5 4 3 2 1 DOE nondef NSF USDA Commerce DHS * 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: AAAS analysis Projected Effects of President's FY 2005 Budget on Nondefense R&D. * - Includes DHS nondefense and defense R&D. APRIL '04 2004 AAAS
Federal Homeland Security R&D, by Agency (budget authority in millions of dollars, FY 2002-2005) 4,000 All Other Nat'l. Science Foundation 3,000 NASA 2,000 Health & Human Services EPA 1,000 Homeland Security Defense 0 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 Agriculture Source: AAAS, based on Office of Management and Budget data. FY 2005 figures represent President's request. FEB. '04 2004 AAAS
Projected Nondefense R&D in the President's Budget, FY 2004-2009 % change from FY 2004 funding level in constant dollars 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% NIH NASA DOE nondef. NSF USDA Commerce EPA Interior 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: AAAS analysis Projected Effects of President's FY 2005 Budget on Nondefense R&D APRIL '04 2004 AAAS