Serious attack on Ryan budget takes toll on Mitt Romney. July 16, 2012

Serious attack on Ryan budget takes toll on Mitt Romney July 16, 2012

2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1000 likely 2012 voters (1000 weighted) nationwide was conducted from June 23-27, 2012. In addition, a unique oversample of 200 self-identified Hispanics was conducted from June 25-28, 2012 to allow for an in-depth analysis of this important electoral group. The interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the respondent. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.

The Ryan budget The Ryan budget described in Ryan s actual language gets barely majority support Obama s lead over Romney doubles (from 3 to 6 points) after Romney endorses Ryan budget and voters hear both sides The voters respond to 3 big, nearly equal critiques of the Ryan budget: 1. It allows child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty 2. It privatizes Medicare, cuts health care spending for seniors and raises their health care bills 3. It cuts education spending by 20 percent, forcing states to cut more teachers 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3

The Ryan budget the most vulnerable In presidential debate, when Obama frames narrative as damaging the most vulnerable produces biggest shift to Obama on the vote Keep in mind the voters that have held back and that now move: 1. Rising American Electorate (minority, young, and unmarried women): upset with pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty; Obama vote up from 63 to 65 percent 2. Unmarried women: top concern is pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty; vote up from 63 to 69 percent (matching 2008) 3. Hispanics: top concern is education cuts 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4

The Ryan budget the most vulnerable (cont.) The frameworks: 1. Most effective: Obama by 9 -- general/poverty facts (even split)/vulnerable narrative 2. Very effective: Obama by 6 -- mostly budget general (one poverty fact)/vulnerable narrative 3. Very effective: Obama by 5 -- mostly budget general (one poverty fact)/general narrative 4. Least effective: Obama by 3 -- general/poverty facts (even split)/general narrative 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 5

Unique experimental design and test This survey utilizes a unique experimental design with different respondents hearing different information in order to analyze the differences between groups of respondents. After an initial read on the Ryan budget in the Congressman s own words, half of the respondents receive five facts about general budget cuts in the Ryan plan and one fact about cuts that affected particularly the most vulnerable; the other half received an even split of facts about general budget cuts and cuts affecting the most vulnerable. At the conclusion of the experiment, all respondents are asked a presidential revote question framed as a debate scenario between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney solely on the Ryan budget. Half of respondents hear the set-up to the revote as: In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Half hear the set-up to the revote without the line about the most vulnerable: In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget. This set-up allows us to analyze the effect of Obama framing the choice around the Ryan budget as hitting the most vulnerable. 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 6

7 The experiment Split 1 (250 interviews): VULNERABLE/VULNERABLE Split 2 (250 interviews): GENERAL/VULNERABLE Split 3 (250 interviews): VULNERABLE/GENERAL Split 4 (250 interviews): GENERAL/GENERAL Favor/oppose Ryan plan in his own words Favor/oppose Ryan plan in his own words Favor/oppose Ryan plan in his own words Favor/oppose Ryan plan in his own words Hear general and vulnerable facts Hear general facts Hear general and vulnerable facts Hear general facts Attacks by Democrats and Republicans Attacks by Democrats and Republicans Attacks by Democrats and Republicans Attacks by Democrats and Republicans Obama mentions impact on most vulnerable Obama mentions impact on most vulnerable Obama DOES NOT mention impact on most vulnerable Obama DOES NOT mention impact on most vulnerable Revote: Obama vs. Romney Revote: Obama vs. Romney Revote: Obama vs. Romney Revote: Obama vs. Romney

8 The Ryan budget in his own words barely gets majority support Earlier this year, Republicans in Congress passed a budget that Mitt Romney and Republicans in the Senate support, called the Paul Ryan budget, named after the chairman of the House Budget Committee. Let me read you some things that Republicans who support this budget say it will do and how it will help the country. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this budget plan? Our plan saves the country from a future of spending and debt by cutting an additional 5.3 trillion dollars over the next ten years, bringing federal spending down to the historic level of 20 percent as a share of the economy, and bringing deficits down by 2015. Our plan fixes the broken tax code by making it simple, fair and competitive, and eliminates special interest loopholes while lowering everyone's rates to promote growth. Our plan repeals the Obama administration's health care reform law and the Wall Street reform law, which cause uncertainty for job-creating businesses. Our plan strengthens Medicaid over the next decade by providing states greater flexibility to determine what is best for the people who live in their communities. Our plan will save Medicare for future generations by making smart reforms, giving future seniors the choice to purchase private plans or traditional Medicare. 35 24 Oppose +17 52 25 Support

9 Romney s endorsement of the Ryan budget doesn t help him Now, I'm now going to read you what Mitt Romney has said about the Ryan budget plan, which he supports. After hearing this, are you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney in November? I'm very supportive of the Ryan budget plan. It's a bold and exciting effort on his part and on the part of the Republicans. I think it's amazing that we have a president who three and a half years in still hasn't put a proposal out that deals with entitlements. This budget deals with entitlement reform, tax policy, and efforts to reign in excessive spending. I applaud it. It's an excellent piece of work and very much needed. 43 32 Less likely +1 42 25 More likely

10 Cuts to Medicare, education and letting the child tax credit expire are the most concerning to voters Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most. Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined) The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. 37 The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care. 36 The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20 percent, which would force states to pay more for education, cut their budgets significantly, or lay-off more teachers. 35

11 Other cuts that hit the poor and most vulnerable are concerning, too Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most. Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined) The plan gives those making over a million dollars a year an average tax cut of more than 150,000 dollars, while cutting programs that middle and working class families depend on. The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of more than 10 million children deeper into poverty. The plan cuts Pell Grant scholarships for 10 million students by more than 1,000 dollars and 2 million children would be dropped from early childhood education. 26 30 29 The plan cuts over 120 billion dollars from domestic food aid programs, including food stamps. 20

12 Last tier of concerns Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most. Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined) The plan continues all tax cuts for those making over 250,000 dollars and lowers corporate tax rates. 19 The plan rolls back regulations on banks, insurance companies, oil companies and polluters and eliminates critical regulations designed to protect consumers and workers. 17 Total federal spending would be cut back to the lowest level since 1950, when Medicare, Medicaid, federal funding for education, highways, and major federal activities didn't exist. 13

13 Among Hispanics, education cuts stand out Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most. Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined) The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20 percent, which would force states to pay more for education, cut their budgets significantly, or lay-off more teachers. 43 The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of more than 10 million children deeper into poverty. The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care. The plan cuts Pell Grant scholarships for 10 million students by more than 1,000 dollars and 2 million children would be dropped from early childhood education. 37 37 33 30

14 And among the Rising American Electorate, pushing families with children back into poverty is simply unacceptable Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most. Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined) The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. 45 The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care. The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20 percent, which would force states to pay more for education, cut their budgets significantly, or lay-off more teachers. 38 37

15 Ryan budget facts: Split A predominantly general facts; Split B equal general and vulnerable facts Split A 5 general : 1 vulnerable General The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care. Vulnerable Split B 3 general : 3 vulnerable The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care. The plan continues all tax cuts for those making over 250,000 dollars and lowers corporate tax rates. The plan continues all tax cuts for those making over 250,000 dollars and lowers corporate tax rates. The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20 percent, which would force states to pay more for education, cut their budgets significantly, or lay-off more teachers. The plan rolls back regulations on banks, insurance companies, oil companies and polluters and eliminates critical regulations designed to protect consumers and workers. Total federal spending would be cut back to the lowest level since 1950, when Medicare, Medicaid, federal funding for education, highways, and major federal activities didn't exist. The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. The plan gives those making over a million dollars a year an average tax cut of more than 150,000 dollars, while cutting programs that middle and working class families depend on. The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of more than 10 million children deeper into poverty. The plan cuts Pell Grant scholarships for 10 million students by more than 1,000 dollars and 2 million children would be dropped from early childhood education. The plan cuts over 120 billion dollars from domestic food aid programs, including food stamps.

16 Strongest developed attacks parallel worries about Ryan budget Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the Republican budget plan, which Mitt Romney has supported. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Mitt Romney. Very serious doubts Serious doubts (PUSH BACK INTO POVERTY) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress lets tax cuts for low-income Americans expire, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty by giving some a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars, while millionaires actually get a tax cut of a quarter million dollars. 34 62 (MEDICARE) The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care. 32 62 (TAX INCREASE) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress lets tax cuts for low-income Americans expire, giving the families of 18 million children a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars, while millionaires actually get a tax cut of a quarter million dollars. 31 61

Attacks on Ryan budget s cuts to education and food stamps equally strong, and framing the debate as a choice is strongest driver of the vote Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the Republican budget plan, which Mitt Romney has supported. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Mitt Romney. Very serious doubts Serious doubts (CHOICE) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress gives millionaires a bigger tax cut than George W. Bush gave them, an average tax cut of a quarter million dollars. To pay for tax cuts for those at the very top, their plan has seniors pay thousands more out of pocket and slashes college aid. 31 59 (EDUCATION) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress slashes education funding by 20 percent, including the biggest-ever cuts to Pell Grants, which provide college aid for low and moderate income students at a time when college costs are through the roof. 30 59 (FOOD STAMPS) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress slashes the average daily food stamp benefit of just four dollars and 47 cents for nearly 50 million Americans, including over 16 million children and 5 million babies and toddlers, who will face the risk of going hungry each day, endangering their health and school readiness. 30 59 17

18 Republican attacks on Democrats not nearly as strong Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about Democrats in Congress, who all voted against this budget plan. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Democrats in Congress. (RESPONSIBLE) The country has not had a budget in over 3 years because Democrats refuse to pass one. Instead they choose to rely on short term spending bills that add to our deficit and create uncertainty. Democrats in the Senate have failed to do their job for over 3 years. Very serious doubts 27 Serious doubts 56 (TAX CODE) The Democrats' tax policies punish families and small businesses. Democrats want to raise taxes, which is the worst thing we can do in this economy. Cutting and simplifying taxes will give families and small businesses more money, but Democrats continue to block our efforts. 22 51 (DECLINE) We offer a serious pro-growth plan to cut our budget but the President and Democrats in Congress propose more jobkilling taxes and budget-busting big government spending that punish businesses, cost jobs, and put our economy at risk. 21 51

By focusing on what the Ryan budget does to the most vulnerable, Obama doubles his margin against Romney I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election this November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were - - Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? +3 +8 +4 49 51 49 46 43 45 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Initial Vote Revote including vulnerable Revote NOT including vulnerable 19

20 Hearing about cuts to the most vulnerable and Obama framing it as the choice puts him in a strong position against Romney I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? +9 +6 +3 +5 52 50 50 49 43 44 47 44 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Heard even split of facts Heard mostly facts about cuts in budget in general Heard even split of facts Heard mostly facts about cuts in budget in general

Obama can win over independents Among independents I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election this November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? +2 +11 Net shift: +9 46 44 51 40 Obama Romney Obama Romney 21

And increases lead among Rising American Electorate Among Rising American Electorate I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election this November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? +31 +34 Net shift: +3 63 65 32 31 Obama Romney Obama Romney 22

Driven by unmarried women Among unmarried women I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election this November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? 63 +31 +41 Net shift: +10 69 32 28 Obama Romney Obama Romney 23

*Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups in suburban Columbus, June 4, 2012. 24 Focus groups yield strong reaction against Romney and the Ryan budget cuts to the poor I feel like what he [Romney] wants to pass is morally wrong. It s just wrong, in my opinion. Lower income Americans, to me, it s like trying to squeeze blood from a turnip, is that the saying? They re doing what they can, they re not gonna make more money. I think of Robin Hood, where the king is stealing from the poor to make more money. So you increase the taxes and then they lose their job, they ll never get ahead. They ll be digging in the hole further and further and they can t get out. I feel like he [Romney] doesn t really understand poor people. And it s not the kids fault that the families are poor It doesn t seem fair. It doesn t make any sense. Yeah, it s crazy. Because they [the poor] don t have any money and then you re gonna tax them more. That s hitting them on both ends.

The child tax credit Support for the child tax credit is strong voters are opposed to letting it expire, pushing families with children back into poverty Voters are concerned about the morality of the choices the Ryan budget makes, hitting the most vulnerable, including kids, the hardest when times are tough Republicans arguments that poor people don t pay taxes or the credit was meant to only be temporary are not as strong as Democrats moral arguments Strong moral argument on food stamps gets your attention 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 25

26 The child tax credit and working poor start out in a very favorable light Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 64.5 Net: +33 46 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 66.1 Net: +35 50 30 35 9 10 13 15 The child tax credit The working poor

27 Pushing people back into poverty robs them of the American dream The best case against allowing the credit to expire articulates that doing so would push the families of 2 million children back into poverty. This argument is more powerful than the argument that it would push the families of 10 million children deeper into poverty. Pushing families back suggests that these are aspirational and responsible families who are trying to work hard; pushing them back into poverty not only has an impact on these families, but also suggests something dark about Americans ability to achieve the American Dream.

28 Voters strongly against pushing 2 million people back into poverty; stronger than 10 million deeper Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most. Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined) (HALF SAMPLE) The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. 37 (HALF SAMPLE) The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of more than 10 million children deeper into poverty. 29

*Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups in suburban Columbus, June 4, 2012. 29 Reinforced in focus groups: people recoil from pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty You don t want to push them back. They may be just starting to come up. People who are on that brink, they struggle hard and they work really hard to get out of that mess and to push them back into it isn t fair. Why even work? I just think it s completely unacceptable in this country for that many children to live in poverty. It has a ripple effect. I hate to see people who have been struggling to get out of poverty knocked back down.

30 Over 50 percent register serious doubts about not extending the child tax credit If the Republican budget plan is enacted, many families will lose all or part of their refundable child tax credit, which provides up to a 1,000 dollar tax credit for each child of the working poor, those whose incomes average around 21,000 dollars a year. A family has to be working in order to receive it. If the value of a family's credit exceeds the amount of tax they owe, they may receive part or all of the difference in the form of a refund check. Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the plan to not extend the child tax credit. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the plan to not extend the child tax credit. We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, the families of 2 million children will be pushed back into poverty. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans. 25 Very serious doubts 55 Serious doubts We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, millions of working families with children will see a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans. 24 53 We can't balance the budget on the backs of the most vulnerable. The deficit is important, but it is more important to prevent a 20 percent increase in the poverty rate among babies and toddlers. 23 55 We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, the families of 18 million children will receive a tax increase. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans. 20 53

Best child tax credit messages strong with key groups Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the plan to not extend the child tax credit. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the plan to not extend the child tax credit. We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, the families of 2 million children will be pushed back into poverty. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans. We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, millions of working families with children will see a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans. 55 69 64 62 53 65 62 61 25 40 31 25 24 36 30 22 Total Hispanics Rising American Electorate Seniors Total Hispanics Rising American Electorate Seniors

32 The moral argument to support programs that benefit the working poor is very strong I'm going to read you some statements that some people may make in favor of programs that benefit the working poor. After I read each one, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support programs that benefit the working poor -- is it a very convincing reason, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support programs that benefit the working poor. Very convincing Somewhat convincing (MORAL) We need to be wise about how we spend our money, but it is morally wrong to cut programs like food stamps, that benefit those who are genuinely in need. We simply cannot let people starve. 44 71 (KIDS) Programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit benefit millions of kids, who are poor due to no fault of their own. 38 69 (AMERICAN WAY) It is in our DNA as Americans to help the less fortunate and programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit are good ways to help people fallen on hard times. 35 66 (CHOICE) We need to reduce our deficits, but if we can afford subsidies for oil companies and massive tax breaks and loopholes for the wealthiest, we can afford to take care of the poorest citizens who need it most. 32 58

33 Hispanics respond powerfully to these messages I'm going to read you some statements that some people may make in favor of programs that benefit the working poor. After I read each one, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support programs that benefit the working poor -- is it a very convincing reason, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support programs that benefit the working poor. Very convincing Somewhat convincing (MORAL) We need to be wise about how we spend our money, but it is morally wrong to cut programs like food stamps, that benefit those who are genuinely in need. We simply cannot let people starve. Total Hispanics 44 50 71 72 (KIDS) Programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit benefit millions of kids, who are poor due to no fault of their own. Total Hispanics 38 51 69 78

The moral argument and focusing on kids powerful among other key voters I'm going to read you some statements that some people may make in favor of programs that benefit the working poor. After I read each one, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support programs that benefit the working poor -- is it a very convincing reason, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support programs that benefit the working poor. (MORAL) We need to be wise about how we spend our money, but it is morally wrong to cut programs like food stamps, that benefit those who are genuinely in need. We simply cannot let people starve. (KIDS) Programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit benefit millions of kids, who are poor due to no fault of their own. 67 73 73 74 68 66 72 73 41 38 47 49 36 32 33 43 Independent Seniors Suburban Rising American Electorate Independent Seniors Suburban Rising American Electorate

35 Messages in favor of keeping programs that benefit the working poor, like food stamps, more convincing How convincing a reason is the following to NOT support programs that benefit the working poor? Very convincing Somewhat convincing (MORAL) We need to be wise about how we spend our money, but it is morally wrong to cut programs like food stamps, that benefit those who are genuinely in need. We simply cannot let people starve. 44 71 (KIDS) Programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit benefit millions of kids, who are poor due to no fault of their own. 38 69 (DON T PAY TAXES) People who receive the refundable tax credit make so little money that they get more back in refunds than they pay in taxes. We shouldn't be giving away money to those who don't pay taxes at all. (TEMPORARY) Extending food stamps and unemployment benefits were meant to be just a temporary measure in Obama's stimulus program. This can't go on forever. It hasn't worked, it increased our debt burden, and we can't afford more stimulus now. 31 28 56 55

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