What s Next for Canada s Construction Industry, 216-225 New Brunswick Building Trades March 23, 216
Tracking conditions by province... How are investments and labour demands stacking up or changing? What are the trends telling us expansion / demographics? Where are the potential opportunities / challenges? Finding the balance between the sustainable skilled workforce and meeting peak demands. Scenario analysis relies on input from Provincial LMI Committees released January 216; based on general economic indicators, commodity prices and construction investment assumptions as defined November 215.
Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward Tracking key macroeconomic drivers: global markets commodity prices Canadian dollar (low.7 USD) Economic news in 215 was mostly negative: price of oil continued to fall (WTI ~ 3 USD) project delays and cancellations slower growth Impacts in oil sensitive regions such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador Impact on government revenues and expenditures; business confidence Uncertainty, changing major project schedules Federal infrastructure spending? 3
Construction Labour Market Trends Employment, Canada 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, s 1996 214: Employment increased by 9%; brief downturn in 29 Forecast 1,37, 216 225: Slower growth 8 6 712, 4 2 Emp Emp (BF) Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey; BuildForce Canada 4
Provincial Labour Market Highlights
Non-residential construction British Columbia Potential up cycle?? Tracking major engineering project requirements: LNG ~$26 billion (4 projects 2 major facilities) Pipelines ~$14 billion (5 projects) Mining ~$12 billion (6 projects) Utilities ~$11 billion (5 projects) Transportation systems and container terminals ~$1 billion (7 projects) Highways and bridges ~$5 billion (4 projects) Total non-residential employment expected to rise: increase by more than 2 percent or 17, workers between 216 and 219 Much depends on major project schedules!
British Columbia NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: 1, 9, # of Workers WEAK Forecast TIGHT revised schedules 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Employment driven by proposed major LNG, pipeline, utilities, mining, transportation and other infrastructure projects. Source: BuildForce Canada 7
Non-residential construction Alberta As oil prices fell in 214 and 215 the impacts were felt across the economy. New oil sands investment declined as new projects were postponed or cancelled. Weaker price of oil expected to prevail over the medium term and no new major large projects are scheduled to start as current projects wind down. Biggest impact is on the out of province workforce; a large proportion of this group has left or leaving.
Alberta NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: 14, # of Workers WEAK TIGHT Forecast 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Oil sands investment declines; employment impacts spread across all markets 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 9
Alberta Oil Sands Investment* 16, $27 Millions (adjusted for inflation) 14, Forecast 12, 1, Significant decline in new capital 8, 6, 4, 2, * Includes construction and machinery & equipment New Source: BuildForce Canada 1
Alberta Oil Sands Investment* 25, 2, $27 Millions (adjusted for inflation) Sustaining capital partially offsets new capital decline Forecast 15, 1, 5, Sustaining capital New * Includes construction and machinery & equipment Sustaining capital refers to the periodic addition (or replacement) of capital, which is required to maintain operations at existing levels. Source: BuildForce Canada 11
Alberta oil & gas maintenance and repair expenditures* (preliminary) 9, $27 Millions (adjusted for inflation) 8, Forecast 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, * Includes construction and machinery & equipment Maintenance refers to the process of maintaining equipment including: routine or on-stream work that typically does not require operations/production to shut down; and turnarounds, shutdowns or outages in which the operating unit is taken out of production. Source: Statistics Canada and BuildForce 12
Union maintenance work hours Alberta 1,2, Man-hours 1,, 8, 6, Seasonal peaks create challenges 4, 2, Boilermakers Linear (Boilermakers) Source: General Presidents Maintenance Committee for Canada; National Maintenance Council for Canada 13
Source: ACTIMS, ROSE, BuildForce Canada Near Term Maintenance Requirements... Select Alberta owners/projects 12, 1, 8, Significant rise in Spring 216 maintenance demand: - boilermakers - electricians - insulators - pipefitters - scaffolders 6, 4, 2, Labour Requirements (Preliminary)
Saskatchewan NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: # of Workers 4, 35, WEAK TIGHT Forecast delays? 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Following a period of slower growth; new proposed resource development and pipeline projects are scheduled over the medium term; non-residential employment expected to peak in 221. 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 15
Manitoba NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: 3, # of Workers WEAK Forecast TIGHT 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Near term growth driven by major power generation and transmission projects; as projects wind down overall employment remains above historic levels 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 16
Ontario NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: # of Workers 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, WEAK TIGHT Forecast 6, 4, 2, Moderate expansion driven by proposed nuclear refurbishment, transportation, mining and other infrastructure projects. Conditions can vary significantly by region. 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 17
Quebec NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: # of Workers WEAK TIGHT 14, 12, Forecast 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Following modest declines, recovery expected to start in 217 driven by proposed pipeline, infrastructure and resource development projects. 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 18
Nova Scotia NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: # of Workers 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, WEAK TIGHT Forecast 6, 4, 2, Modest rise in ICI construction across the outlook period, no significant major project announcements. LNGs?? 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 19
Prince Edward Island NonRes construction employment. Non-Res Market Conditions: # of Workers 4, 3,5 WEAK TIGHT Forecast 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Steady but moderate investment gains lead by commercial construction, no significant major projects. 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 2
Newfoundland and Labrador NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: # of Workers 18, 16, WEAK TIGHT Forecast 14, 12, delays? 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Major resource development projects (offshore platforms, nickel smelter, hydroelectric and transmission) are peaking and winding down. Second investment (offshore and mining) wave anticipated over the long run. 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-residential Source: BuildForce Canada 21
New Brunswick NonRes construction employment Non-Res Market Conditions: 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, # of Workers WEAK TIGHT Forecast revised schedules 6, 4, 2, Proposed pipeline, marine terminal, and mine developments expected to increase investment over the medium term, 217-219; investment cycles down in 22 as some projects wind down. 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Non-Residential Source: BuildForce Canada 22
Demographic trends. Canada-wide, an estimated 25, construction workers (21% of current workforce) are expected to retire over the next decade Atlantic Canada: 24, (25% of LF) Significant loss of skilled workers: need to transfer knowledge to less experienced workers Source: BuildForce Canada 23
Replacement demand. Next Decade: Cumulative Retirements as a % of 215 Labour Force CA 21.3% (25,) NB 27.2% (7,9) PE 27.% (1,7) NS 24.5% (8,5) QC BC 22.8% 22.5% (48,) (39,) NL 22.4% (6,) ON 21.2% (86,) MB 2.5% (8,2) AB 18.1% (36,) SK 17.6% (8,7) 1% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2% 22% 24% 26% 28% 3% Source: BuildForce Canada 24
Population age shares, New Brunswick (%) 52 47 Forecast 42 37 32 27 22 17 12 7 15-24 25-54 55-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada and BuildForce (fall 215) 25
Converging Challenges 26
Will we be ready for the next up-cycle? Replenish the aging workforce Develop innovative approaches to apprenticeship to support employers hiring, training, and retaining apprentices. Facilitate and promote mobility Intra-provincial Inter-provincial Measure and improve productivity 27
Looking forward... Slower growth... Key macroeconomic assumptions: commodity prices, exchange rate, interest rates, global markets, etc. Changing major project schedules: postponed / canceled Infrastructure stimulus: what, when, where? Business confidence... 28
Questions?
For more information, contact: BuildForce Canada Phone: 613-569-5552 info@buildforce.ca