The Saskatchewan Labour Market Presentation to: Yorkton Employer Seminar February 12, 2004 Yorkton, Saskatchewan Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H1 Tel: 306-522-5515 Fax: 306-522-5838 Email: sasktrends@sasktel.net Internet: www.sasktrends.ca
Contents General Economic Overview Population Gross Domestic Product Other Key Economic Indicators Definition of Labour Market Terms and Concepts Employment - characteristics of jobs and persons working in them Hours of work Industry Category Age and gender Education level Aboriginal identity Sub-provincial regions The East Central Economic Region Socioeconomic characteristics of those not employed Reports re: Labour Market Information 2
Population 1,040,000 1,030,000 Saskatchewan s population has been at or near 1 million for the past 15 years. 1,020,000 1,010,000 1,000,000 990,000 980,000 In fact, the population has fluctuated near this psychological figure since the late 1920s. An increase in outmigration and declining in-migration led to annual population declines in the late 1990s. 970,000 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 3
Gross Domestic Product 8% 6% 4% annual increase in real GDP The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most widely used measure of overall economic activity. 2% 0% The GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the economy. Adjusted for inflation, it is called the real GDP. -2% -4% -6% Canada Saskatchewan 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 est A decline in real GDP is the technical definition of a recession. The provincial economy was in recession in 2001 and 2002. 4
Resources/International Trade $10 $9 $8 value of oil/gas and mineral production $ billions Value of Mineral Production $14 $12 Value of International Merchandise Trade international merchandise trade ($ billions) $7 $10 $6 $8 $5 $4 $6 $3 $4 $2 $2 $1 $0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 $0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 5
Farm Receipts and Income $7 $6 $5 $ billions Farm cash receipts Farm cash receipts excluding gov't transfers Drought, poor grain prices, and the BSE case have led to declining cash receipts in 2002 and 2003. $4 $3 expenses Net cash income has been supported by government transfer payments since 2000 as it was in the last 1980s and early 1990s. $2 $1 acutal net cash income $0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 est 6
Consumer Spending $10 $9 retail sales $ billions actual Economic growth in 2002 and 2003 has been better than expected because consumer spending is strong. $8 $7 $6 $5 adjusted for inflation (constant 1992 dollars) Motor vehicle sales, in particular, have generated increases in retail spending well above the rate of inflation. Other indicators of consumer confidence such as housing starts are also strong. $4 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 7
Employment 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 employment in thousands 1992 to 2000 Average annual growth of 1.0% 2000 to 2003: 0.1% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 With the exception of the unprecedented drop in 2001, employment has grown at a reasonable pace in the past decade. From 1992 to 2000, employment grew at an average annual rate of 1% per year. From 2000 to 2003, there has been virtually no change in employment; two years were required to recover the 13,000 jobs lost in 2001. 8
Employment and the Labour Force
Definitions Not in the labour force 240,000 Unemployed 29,000 Adult (15 and older) Population in Saskatchewan, 2003 Employed 487,000 The labour market data is all based on a telephone survey of individuals - the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - conducted monthly by Statistics Canada. Approximately 5,000 Sask residents take part in the LFS every month. The survey excludes those who live on Indian Reserves. Statistics Canada classifies all persons 15 years of age or older into one of three categories: employed: working full-time or parttime, as a paid worker or selfemployed unemployed: not working but actively seeking employment not in the labour force: everybody else About one half of those not in the labour force are retired seniors. 10
Inter-provincial Comparisons Average Annual Employment Increase Canada Manitoba Saskatchewan Saskatchewan s employment growth rate of 1.0% from 1992 to 2000 was below the national average but still respectable. The 0.1% average annual increase since 2000 is the lowest in Canada. Alberta 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 11
Characteristics of Jobs - Hours of Work Average Annual Employment Increase Full time In 2003, 23% of persons employed were working part time. Part time In the early period - 1992 to 2000 - full time jobs were replacing part time ones. Since 2000, the increase has been in part time jobs. Multiple job holders -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of multiple job holders (persons with two or more jobs simultaneously) in Canada but the incidence is declining. In 2003, 8% of the employed had two or more jobs. 12
Characteristics of Jobs - Industry Employment by Industry of "Main" Job 500 450 400 350 thousands non-agriculture In effect, employment in the province increases when the non-agricultural sector can absorb the ongoing loss of agriculture jobs. Employment in agriculture accounted for 10% of the total in 2003 compared with 18% in 1993. 100 50 agriculture Employment in nonagricultural industry groups increased by 1.8% per year from 1992 to 2000 and 1.3% per year from 2000 to 2003. 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Note that the industry is based on the main job for multiple job holders. 13
Characteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture Industries Average Annual Employment Change Resources Construction Manufacturing Transportation, warehousing Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate Professional, technical, business services Health and social services Education services 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 Accommodation and food Information, culture, recreation Other services Public administration -2,000-1,500-1,000-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 14
Characteristics of the Employed - Gender Employment by Gender 275 thousands Employment among women is increasing more quickly than among men. 250 225 Part (but not all) of the reason is the nature of the industry growth. That is, the fastest growing sectors are those where women are more likely to be employed, e.g. 200 health and social services education 175 information, culture, recreation 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 15
Characteristics of the Employed - Age Average Annual Employment Increase 15 to 24 25 to 39 In the past ten to fifteen years, the bulge in the population called the baby boom generation has moved from their forties to their early fifties. 40 to 54 55 plus -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 The growth in employment among those 40 to 54 is a natural consequence of the aging of the population. The growth among those 55 and older in the past three years is because of higher participation in the labour force. 16
Characteristics of the Employed - Education Level Employment: 25 to 64 Years of Age 250 200 thousands All of the employment growth since 1990 has been among those with a post-secondary education. 150 100 50 Post secondary graduates In 2002, over 85% of those 25 to 64 and with a post-secondary education were employed. This compares with 61% of those with less than Grade 12. Grade 12, some post-secondary Less than grade 12 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 17
Employment Rates, Aboriginal Population in 2001 15 to 24 Aboriginal on Reserve Aboriginal off Reserve Non-Aboriginal population The LFS doesn t measure Aboriginal identity; these figures are from the 2001 census. 25 to 34 Aboriginal on Reserve Aboriginal off Reserve Non-Aboriginal population The employment rate is the percentage of the population that was employed in June 2001. 45 & older 35 to 44 Aboriginal on Reserve Aboriginal off Reserve Non-Aboriginal population Aboriginal on Reserve Aboriginal off Reserve Non-Aboriginal population employment rate There is a sizable gap in employment rates, particularly on Reserve and particularly among young people. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18
Employment by Region
Saskatchewan s Economic Regions North/Far North For the purposes of the LFS, the province is divided into five rural and two urban economic regions. West Central Saskatoon CMA East Central Regina CMA Southwest Southeast 20
Regina Census Metropolitan Area Regina CMA Employment in Thousands West Central North/Far North Saskatoon CMA Regina CMA 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 East Central 92 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Southwest Southeast 21
Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area 125 120 Saskatoon CMA Employment in Thousands West Central North/Far North Saskatoon CMA Regina CMA 115 110 105 100 95 East Central 90 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Southwest Southeast 22
Southeast Economic Region Southeast Employment in Thousands 43 42 North/Far North 41 40 39 West Central Saskatoon CMA East Central 38 37 36 Regina CMA 35 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Southwest Southeast 23
East Central Economic Region East Central Employment in Thousands 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 West Central 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 North/Far North Saskatoon CMA East Central Regina CMA Southwest Southeast 24
Employment Outlook The provincial economy can be viewed as having four drivers. Consumers are the largest driver but consumer spending is expected to slow after several years of increasing consumer debt. The public sector is in a period of restraint for the short term as expenditures exceed revenues at both the provincial and municipal levels. The private sector is poised for a recovery after several years of belowaverage performance. The national and international marketplace is volatile because of the US election and the rising Canadian dollar. Based on this combination of factors, economic growth in 2004 and 2005 will probably be below average. Employment growth in 2004 is forecast at less than 1%. Over the long term, the province s prospects are bright although the retiring baby boomers will put pressure on the labour market. Skilled workers will be increasingly hard to come by; more new entrants to the labour market will be Aboriginal. 25
East Central Economic Region
Regional Characteristics 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Age Distribution in 2001 Rural* Saskatchewan East Central Region Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65 & older Compared with other rural areas in 2001, that is excluding the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs, the East Central region s population is different in a number of ways. The population is concentrated in older age groups. People are less likely to live in a large urban centre, i.e. the region is more rural. A high proportion of dwellings (87%) are single detached houses and 77% are without a mortgage. There are relatively few (12%) lone parent families. The population is stable - 71% did not change their address from 1996 to 2001. * Saskatchewan population not including Regina and Saskatoon CMAs 27
Regional Characteristics (continued) Employment Growth, 1991 to 2001 Agriculture/forestry Other primary Manufacturing/construction Retail/wholesale trade Public sector services Accomodation and food services Other private sector services East Central Region Rural* Saskatchewan -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% * provincial total not including the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs The Aboriginal population is 11% of the total compared with 17% in other rural areas. The region s immigrant population (3.2% of the total) are more likely to have come to Canada before 1961-56% did so. Polish and Ukrainian ancestry are much more common. Educational attainment levels are below average. Average farm size is 1,005 acres compared with 1,283 in other rural areas. They are also smaller in terms of capitalization and revenue. Employment growth in the service sector, private sector services in particular, has lagged behind the provincial average. 28
Regional Characteristics (continued) Household Incomes in 2000 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % of households Rural* Saskatchewan East Central Region Household income in 2000 was 89% of the rural average compared with 92% in 1990. Individual incomes were 92% of the rural average in 2000. 21% of income was from government transfers compared with 18% provincially. Relatively few households had incomes in excess of $60,000 in 2000-20½% compared with 26%. 0% Under $20,000- $40,000- $60,000- $10,000 $29,999 $49,999 $69,999 * provincial total not including the Regina and Saskatoon CMAs 29 $80,000- $89,999 $100,000 and over
Employment Growth by RM, 1991 to 2001 Wynyard Employment Growth, 1991 to 2001 (Provincial Average = 2%) 4% or more -4% to +3.9% -10% to -3.9% Declined more than 10% Foam Lake Canora Kamsack Ituna Yorkton Melville Bredenbury Fort Qu'Appelle Esterhazy 30
Characteristics of those Not Employed
Definitions Not in the labour force 240,000 Unemployed 29,000 Adult (15 and older) Population in Saskatchewan, 2003 Employed 487,000 The labour market data is all based on a telephone survey of individuals - the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - conducted monthly by Statistics Canada. Approximately 5,000 Sask residents take part in the LFS every month. The survey excludes those who live on Indian Reserves. Statistics Canada classifies all persons 15 years of age or older into one of three categories: employed: working full-time or parttime, as a paid worker or selfemployed unemployed: not working but actively seeking employment not in the labour force: everybody else About one half of those not in the labour force are retired seniors. 32
Not Employed: Socioeconomic Characteristics The characteristics of the 120,300 Sask residents who were, in 2002, in the 20 to 64 age group and were not working were obtained from LFS data. (Remember that the LFS doesn t include the Reserve population.) Some key features are: 62% were women; 28% were 20 to 29 years of age; 29% were 55 or older; 15% were attending school; 48% live in households where no one is employed; 33% had less than grade 12 and two thirds of these were 35 or older; 19% were unemployed, that is, actively seeking employment; 37% had worked in the past year, 52% had worked but not for at least a year, 11% had never had a job; and about one half of those who worked in the past year were laid off, the rest left voluntarily. 33
Family Status of those Not Employed, 2002 Lone parents under 50 7% All others 21% Neither employed, 50 or older 15% Men in families with wife employed 10% Unattached individuals 17% Women where husband is employed, no young children 13% Women in families with children under 18 17% One quarter to a third of the family situations involve young children and a parent that is probably staying at home to look after them. Another quarter seem to be retirees and women who have never been in the labour force. Many of the remaining potential employees are young adults, some of whom are going to school. 34
Labour Market Studies The Labour Market Trends report mentioned in the binders is currently being updated. This report projects a declining non- Aboriginal labour force as the baby boomers retire. Research for the Public Service Commission and the Crown Investment Corporation documents the aging of public sector employees. The Regional Employment Trends in Saskatchewan for 2003 may be updated for 2004. Regional profiles (using census data) for the DCRE regions and regional college regions are being prepared. 35