New York State Assembly Ways and Means Committee Graphic Overview of the 2014-15 Executive Budget January 2014 STATE OF NEW YORK Sheldon Silver, Speaker Herman D. Farrell, Jr., Chairman
TABLE OF CONTENTS FINANCIAL PLAN...1 BUDGET SUMMARY Education...7 Health... 13 Higher Education... 19 Human Services... 25 Mental Hygiene... 30 Environment, Agriculture and Energy... 32 Transportation... 35 Economic Development... 37 Public Protection... 41 Local Government... 42 State Operations and Workforce... 45 ECONOMY... 49 REVENUE... 53 CAPITAL AND DEBT... 57
Financial Plan
FINANCIAL PLAN The All Funds budget grew minimally with a growth of less than one percent, while the General Fund grew by over three times that rate. Size of Budget ($ in Millions) 2013-14 2014-15 Difference Percent General Funds $61,460 $63,563 $2,103 3.4% State Operating Funds $90,498 $92,027 $1,529 1.7% State Funds $96,624 $98,874 $2,250 2.3% All Funds $135,350 $137,168 $1,818 1.3% All Funds Adjusted* $140,865 $142,141 $1,276 0.9% Note: All Funds Adjusted includes extraordinary federal aid associated with Hurricane Sandy and the Affordable Care Act. New York State Assembly Financial Plan 1
FINANCIAL PLAN The All Funds budget has grown by $41.4 billion since 2005, with large growth in SFY 2013-14 due to extraordinary federal aid for Superstorm Sandy and the Affordable Care Act. $ Billions 145 All Funds Disbursement History 140.9 142.1 130.9 134.8 133.5 133.1 120 112.8 116.1 121.6 100.7 104.3 95 70 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 New York State Assembly Financial Plan 2
FINANCIAL PLAN Since 2012, the enacted General Fund gap closing actions have decreased spending by $21.2 billion in SFY 2016-17. $ Billions Recent Actions Significantly Reduce General Fund Spending 95 Estimated Expenditures Before Actions 80 Actual/Projected Expenditures After Actions 17.1 18.7 21.2 65 9.1 12.3 14.6 50 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 New York State Assembly Financial Plan 3
FINANCIAL PLAN The majority of All Funds receipts are derived from federal grants and Personal Income Tax collections, while Health and Education spending make up over half of the All Funds disbursements. $ Millions All Funds Disbursements Health: $47,379 Education: $27,433 State Operations: $19,780 All Other: $14,421 Capital and Debt Service: $11,797 General State Charges: $7,668 Social Services: $7,352 STAR: $3,429 Higher Education: $2,882 32% 19% 14% 13% 9% 5% 5% 2%2% $ Millions All Funds Receipts Federal Grants: $45,792 Personal Income Tax: $44,131 Miscellaneous Receipts: $25,315 Consumption User Taxes and Fees: $15,481 Business Taxes: $7,854 Other Taxes: $3,328 32% 30% 17% 11% 6% 2% New York State Assembly Financial Plan 4
FINANCIAL PLAN The out-year surpluses produced by the proposed gap-closing actions are based on the assumption that future budgets will hold State Operating Funds spending to two percent. General Fund GAP-Closing Plan ($ in Millions) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 CURRENT SERVICES GAP ESTIMATES (1,742) (2,889) (2,948) (3,887) Spending Changes 2,098 2,794 3,375 3,604 Agency Operation 358 708 990 1,342 Local Assistance 1,624 1,976 2,267 2,104 Capital Projects/Debt Management 116 110 118 158 Resource Changes 286 441 (153) (539) Resource Changes (24) 31 (153) (129) Surplus Available from FY 2014 310 0 0 0 Tax Credit Timing 0 410 0 (410) SURPLUS/GAP ESTIMATE BEFORE BUDGET ACTIONS 642 346 274 (822) Tax Actions (486) (1,644) (2,082) (2,124) Initiatives (156) (232) (394) (499) Total New Budget Actions (642) (1,876) (2,476) (2,623) SURPLUS/GAP SUBTOTAL AFTER BUDGET ACTIONS 0 (1,530) (2,202) (3,445) Adherence to 2% State Operating Funds Spending Benchmark 0 1,685 2,367 3,618 EXECUTIVE BUDGET SURPLUS/(GAP) ESTIMATE 0 155 165 173 New York State Assembly Financial Plan 5
Budget Summary
BUDGET SUMMARY: EDUCATION The Executive Budget proposes a GSPS increase of $807 million in SFY 2014-15 for a total of $21.9 billion. $ Billions General Support for Public Schools (GSPS) Returns to 2009-10 Levels 25 20 15 10 8.8 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.7 9.9 10.2 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.4 14.6 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.7 19.5 21.3 21.7 20.6 19.6 20.3 21.2 21.9 5-90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 Note: 2014-15 is the Executive Proposal. New York State Assembly Education 7
BUDGET SUMMARY: EDUCATION The Executive Budget restores $323 million to the GEA, leaving $1.3 billion remaining after five years. $ Billions 3 2 1 2.8 Gap Elimination Adjustment (GEA) : Annual Reductions to School Aid 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.3 $ Billions 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 19.5 17.7 21.3 Gap Elimination Adjustment Impact on GSPS 21.7 20.6 22.7 22.2 19.6 22.5 20.3 22.9 21.2 GSPS without GEA GSPS with GEA 23.2 21.9 0 Initial GEA 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 Note: 2014-15 is the Executive Proposal. New York State Assembly Education 8
BUDGET SUMMARY: EDUCATION The Executive Budget leaves the Foundation Aid formula at current levels. $ Billions Foundation Aid Funding 22 20.5 20.5 20.2 20 18 16.7 18.0 19.0 16 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.2 14 12.5 13.6 Original Plan Actual 12 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 Note: 2014-15 is the Executive Proposal. Source: State Education Department. New York State Assembly Education 9
BUDGET SUMMARY: EDUCATION The Executive Budget provides an increase to School Aid of $807 million, and also proposes in addition to proposing a $2 billion Smart Schools Bond Act. School Aid ($ in Millions) 2014-15 Exec. Request Expense Based Aids and Grant Programs 285.00 Gap Elimination Adjustment Restoration 323.00 Fiscal Stabilization Fund - Unallocated 74.00 Subtotal: Formula-Based Aids and Certain Grants 682.00 New Initiatives Statewide Universal Full-Day Prekindergarten 100.00 New Performance Programs Teacher Excellence Fund 20.00 P-TECH 5.00 Year to Year GSPS Increase 807.00 Smart Schools Bond Act 2,000.00 New York State Assembly Education 10
BUDGET SUMMARY: EDUCATION The Executive provides $100 million as the first installment of a five year plan to build on the current Universal Pre-K Program. $ Millions Assembly Universal Pre-K Program Serves a Generation of Students with Over $4 Billion Invested 500 400 300 200 100 0 67.4 100.1 160.5 200.9 201.0 201.5 201.8 201.4 292.0 98-99 354.5 99-00 375.2 00-01 378.1 01-02 384.3 02-03 380.8 03-04 378.3 410.0 510.0 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 Note: 2014-15 is the Executive Proposal. New York State Assembly Education 11
BUDGET SUMMARY: EDUCATION As Pre-K funding is phased in, the cumulative growth would comprise a larger share of School Aid increases. $ Millions 5,000 4,000 Cumulative Pre-K Funding: Growing Share of Projected School Aid Increases Cumulative Statewide Full-Day Prekindergarten Increase Cumulative Projected School Aid Increase, All Other Aids 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 New York State Assembly Education 12
BUDGET SUMMARY: HEALTH The Department of Health estimates that recently enacted Medicaid proposals will save the State $17.1 billion over the next five State Fiscal Years. $ Billions 22 20 New York Bends the Medicaid Cost Curve Medicaid Expenditures With Medicaid Redesign Team Actions Medicaid Expenditures Without Medicaid Redesign Team Actions 18 16 14 12 10 Medicaid Redesign Team Implementation 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 New York State Assembly Health 13
BUDGET SUMMARY: HEALTH Over the past five years, Medicaid enrollment has increased by over one million children and adults. Millions 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 Average Number of Medicaid Enrollees 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 New York State Assembly Health 14
BUDGET SUMMARY: HEALTH The State has more than doubled the percentage of individuals enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care programs over the past five years. Medicaid Managed Care Participation Increasing Dramatically 100% 50% 0% 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 16% 16% 16% 15% 13% 10% 20% 19% 18% 16% 14% 11% 38% 37% 35% 34% 31% 21% 23% 28% 31% 38% 07 08 09 10 11 12 25% 49% Medicaid Managed Care Long Term Care Services Hospital Inpatient Outpatient and Other Services Family Health Plus New York State Assembly Health 15
BUDGET SUMMARY: HEALTH Over a ten year period, the State has assumed approximately $14 billion in Medicaid costs from local governments. $ Billions 11 State Support for Medicaid Provides Billions in Mandate Relief 9 7 5 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 County Cap Payments Takeover of Family Health Plus Savings Local Medicaid Cap (2005) Savings Takeover of Local Medicaid Growth (2013) Savings Takekover of Medicaid Administration Savings New York State Assembly Health 16
BUDGET SUMMARY: HEALTH The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is projected to provide nearly $3 billion in savings to State and local governments over the next three years. State and Local Relief Under the ACA ($ in Millions) Fiscal Year State Savings Local Savings Total 2013-14 203.1 85.9 289.0 2014-15 815.3 364.7 1,180.0 2015-16 1,010.6 424.4 1,435.0 3 Year Totals 2,029.0 875.0 2,904.0 New York State Assembly Health 17
BUDGET SUMMARY: HEALTH Local governments are scheduled to receive over $7 billion in relief over the next three years as a result of the State s continued assumption of local Medicaid costs. Medicaid Takeover - Local Savings ($ in Millions) SFY 2013-14 SFY 2014-15 SFY 2015-16 SFY 2016-17 Medicaid 3% Cap $1,261 $1,725 $2,105 $2,267 Local Growth takeover $61 $187 $370 $552 Family Health Plus $467 $155 $0 $0 Total $1,789 $2,067 $2,475 $2,819 New York State Assembly Health 18
BUDGET SUMMARY: HIGHER EDUCATION The number of TAP recipients has remained constant while both average awards and tuition have increased. Thousands TAP Recipients and Average TAP Award 1973-2014 $ Thousands 400 4.0 Number of TAP Reci pients 300 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 200 TAP Recipients 1.5 1.0 0.5 100 0.0 73-74 74-75 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 Average Awards New York State Assembly Higher Education 19
BUDGET SUMMARY: HIGHER EDUCATION SUNY State Operated campuses and CUNY Senior Colleges saw small year to year decreases in General Fund support. $ Billions 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 State Support for SUNY at Funding Levels Similar to the 1980's $ Millions 700 600 500 400 300 200 State Support for CUNY at Funding Levels Similar to the 1980's 0.3 100 0.0 0 86-87 88-89 90-91 92-93 94-95 96-97 98-99 00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 New York State Assembly Higher Education 20
BUDGET SUMMARY: HIGHER EDUCATION The Executive proposal reduces support for SUNY Health Science Centers by $20.8 million. $ Millions SUNY Hospital Subsidy: 53% below 2007 level 175 150 125 100 75 92.1 92.6 92.6 129.4 139.5 146.3 128 128.0 128.0 60.0 90.0 89.8 69.0 50 25 0 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 New York State Assembly Higher Education 21
BUDGET SUMMARY: HIGHER EDUCATION Expenditures for the Tuition Assistance Program were $943 million in State Fiscal Year 2013-14. $ Millions TAP Expenditures 2003-13 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 New York State Assembly Higher Education 22
BUDGET SUMMARY: HIGHER EDUCATION The Executive maintains community college base aid funding at $2,422 per full-time equivalent student. $ 2,800 Community College Base Aid Funding for Full Time Equivalent Students Equal to 2005 Levels 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Academic Year New York State Assembly Higher Education 23
BUDGET SUMMARY: HIGHER EDUCATION The Executive includes $1.24 billion for Higher Education Capital in various parts of the Budget. Higher Education Capital Funding Proposed Funding Project ($ in Millions) SUNY Critical Maintenance 500.00 School of Pharmacy at SUNY Binghamton 10.00 SUNY Construction Fund 25.10 Campus Sponsored Projects 150.00 Residence Hall Rehabilitation 50.00 Community Colleges 32.13 CUNY Critical Maintenance 258.00 Project Administration 36.98 Urban Development Corporation NYSUNY 2020 55.00 NYCUNY 2020 55.00 SUNY College for Nanoscale and Science Engineering 50.00 Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine 5.00 Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity 15.00 Total 1,242.21 New York State Assembly Higher Education 24
BUDGET SUMMARY: HUMAN SERVICES Public assistance resources equal only 74 percent of the Federal poverty level. Annual Public Assistance Grant Compared to Federal Poverty Line Family of Three $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $5,047 $3,946 Average SNAP Benefit Cash Grant NYC Shelter Allowance 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 New York State Assembly Human Services 25
BUDGET SUMMARY: HUMAN SERVICES Despite signs of an improved economy, public assistance caseload levels remain high. Thousands 700 Public Assistance Caseload 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 New York State Assembly Human Services 26
BUDGET SUMMARY: HUMAN SERVICES In 2012, there were 3.3 million New Yorkers living in poverty, an increase of 22 percent from a decade ago. Population at or Below Federal Poverty Line New Yorkers in Poverty Recession 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Millions 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 New York State Assembly Human Services 27
BUDGET SUMMARY: HUMAN SERVICES Although funding for NPPs and RPPs has fluctuated, proposed funding is lower than amounts provided a decade ago. $ Millions Neighborhood and Rural Preservation Program Support Appropriation 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 RPP 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 NPP New York State Assembly Human Services 28
BUDGET SUMMARY: HUMAN SERVICES After years of flat funding, the Executive raises child care funding by two percent to provide for the increased cost of current services. $ in Millions 875 Child Care Spending 850 825 800 775 SFY 2010-11 SFY 2011-12 SFY 2012-13 SFY 2013-14 Executive Proposal SFY 2014-15 New York State Assembly Human Services 29
BUDGET SUMMARY: MENTAL HYGIENE The census in State psychiatric hospitals has continued to decrease as the availability of community services has been increased. OMH Inpatient vs. Community Services Thousands 6.0 Thousands 60 5.5 55 Facility Census 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 50 45 40 35 30 Community Beds 2.5 25 2.0 20 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 State Operated Facility Census OMH Community Beds New York State Assembly Mental Hygiene 30
BUDGET SUMMARY: MENTAL HYGIENE The State continues to transition individuals out of developmental centers and into less costly community services. Thousands 100 OPWDD Voluntary vs. State-Operated Providers Recipients 80 60 40 20 0 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 Voluntary Providers State-Operated Providers New York State Assembly Mental Hygiene 31
BUDGET SUMMARY: ENVIRONMENT, AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY The Executive proposes increasing the Environmental Protection Fund (EPF) by $4 million or 2.5 percent to $157 million. $ Millions Environmental Protection Fund Funding, 2003-15 300 250 Open Space Parks and Recreation Solid Waste 200 150 100 50 0 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 New York State Assembly Environment, Agriculture and Energy 32
BUDGET SUMMARY: ENVIRONMENT, AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY The Executive proposes renewing the Superfund program for ten years and provides $100 million in funding for the program. $ Millions 105 DEC Superfund Disbursements 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 New York State Assembly Environment, Agriculture and Energy 33
BUDGET SUMMARY: ENVIRONMENT, AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY The Executive Budget appropriates $135 million in New York Works capital among various Environmental agencies. AGENCY New York Works Capital Funding ($) 2013-14 Appropriation 2014-15 Appropriation Change Ag and Markets 2,500,000 2,500,000 - Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation 47,500,000 90,000,000 42,500,000 Olympic Regional Development Authority 2,500,000 2,500,000 - Department of Environmental Conservation 40,000,000 40,000,000 - Total New York Works Funding for Environment and Energy 92,500,000 135,000,000 42,500,000 New York State Assembly Environment, Agriculture and Energy 34
BUDGET SUMMARY: TRANSPORTATION Consolidated Highway Improvement Program (CHIPS) and Marchiselli funding for local road improvements are maintained at record levels. $ Millions 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Consolidated Highway Improvement Program (CHIPs) and Marchiselli Program Funding 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 New York State Assembly Transportation 35
BUDGET SUMMARY: TRANSPORTATION The Executive Budget supports a $3.4 billion Department of Transportation Capital Plan. DOT Capital Plan (On an Obligations Basis) ($ in Thousands) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Construction Contracts, Consultant Engineering, Right of Way 2,231,406 2,045,163 3,118,297 2,125,000 1,934,000 State Forces Engineering 385,805 374,000 373,000 394,000 410,000 Preventive Maintenance 265,473 295,868 303,433 322,000 354,000 Administration 100,000 99,000 99,000 89,000 76,000 CHIPs/Marchiselli 402,797 402,797 402,797 478,000 478,000 Rail, Aviation, Non-MTA Transit, Misc. 167,271 232,506 195,900 241,000 163,000 Total 3,552,752 3,449,334 4,492,427 3,649,000 3,415,000 New York State Assembly Transportation 36
BUDGET SUMMARY: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Proposed capital appropriations for SFY 2014-15 continue an upward spending trend within economic development. $ Millions 2,500 State Economic Development Capital Initiatives 2,396 New Capital Appropriations 2,000 1,500 1,549 Disbursements Commitments 1,297 1,000 500 0 854 705 788 589 100 181 350 25 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 Note: Includes amounts made available through the ESDC and Miscellaneous Capital Appropriations. New York State Assembly Economic Development 37
BUDGET SUMMARY: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Operating support for economic development purposes remains strong. Economic Development Operating Support $ Millions 200 DED UDC NYSTAR Misc. Support 150 100 50 0 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 New York State Assembly Economic Development 38
BUDGET SUMMARY: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT While there is variation in funding levels awarded to the 10 Regional Economic Development Councils (REDC), the New York City REDC continues to lag behind other Councils. $ Millions Regional Economic Development Councils 120 100 80 60 100.3 103.7 93.8 103.2 90.2 81.3 101.6 83.0 91.1 81.9 96.2 82.4 82.5 52.8 60.8 66.9 59.7 49.4 68.8 59.8 60.2 59.7 62.7 50.3 67.0 92.8 59.6 66.2 51.3 57.4 40 20 0 98 Projects 58 Projects 81 Projects 76 Projects 73 Projects 79 Projects 73 Projects 82 Projects 70 Projects Western NY Central NY North Country 69 Projects 86 Projects 98 Projects 61 Projects 62 Projects 87 Projects 95 Projects 76 Projects 86 Projects Long Island Southern Tier Finger Lakes 61 Projects 70 Projects Mohawk Valley 90 Projects 84 Projects Capital Region 64 Projects 84 Projects 87 Projects Mid-Hudson Round One (2011-12) $785M Round Two (2012-13) $738M Round Three (2013-14) $716M 76 Projects 100 Projects 52 Projects 50 Projects 60 Projects New York City New York State Assembly Economic Development 39
BUDGET SUMMARY: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The Executive provides a total of $1.3 billion for economic development initiatives. Category/Item Economic Development Initiatives ($ in Thousands) 2013-14 Enacted 2014-15 Exec. Request $ Change Buffalo Regional Innovation Cluster 75,000 680,000 605,000 Regional Economic Development Councils 150,000 150,000 0 Nano Utica 0 180,000 180,000 NY-SUNY/CUNY 2020 Challenge Grant Programs 110,000 110,000 0 New York Genome Center 0 55,750 55,750 Suny College for Nanoscale and Science Engineering 0 50,000 50,000 Onondaga County Revitalization Projects 0 30,000 30,000 Economic Transformation Program 0 24,000 24,000 Economic Development Fund 12,000 0-12,000 Clarkson-Trudeau Partnership 0 10,000 10,000 Western NY Football Retention Efforts 56,057 2,195-53,862 Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine 0 5,000 5,000 Funding Total 403,057 1,296,945 893,888 New York State Assembly Economic Development 40
BUDGET SUMMARY: PUBLIC PROTECTION The undercustody population has continued to decline over the past ten years, however, correctional facility operational costs remain essentially unchanged. Thousands 70 Population 65 60 55 50 45 NYS Undercustody Population vs. Prison Spending 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 $ Billions 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Prison Spending Prison Budget Undercustody Population New York State Assembly Public Protection 41
BUDGET SUMMARY: LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Aid and Incentives to Municipalities outside of New York City has remained flat since 2011 and would be continued at $714.5 million for State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2014-15. $ Millions Aid and Incentives for Municipalties (AIM) Funding 1,200 1,000 800 793.3 850.9 977.2 719.7 1,013.2 1,078.2 729.3 714.7 714.7 714.7 714.7 600 583.6 578.6 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 New York State Assembly Local Governments 42
BUDGET SUMMARY: LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Growth in property taxes among all local governments has been declining. % 8 Local Property Taxes (Growth over Prior Year) 6 7.4 7.4 5.9 4 5.0 4.0 4.3 2 2.7 2.2 2.9 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 New York State Assembly Local Governments 43
BUDGET SUMMARY: LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Total expenditures for local governments outside of NYC have increased from $32 billion in 2003 to $41.7 billion in 2012 but remained relatively flat in the most recent years. $ Bllions Local Expenditures 43 41 39 37 35 34.0 35.2 36.5 38.8 40.8 40.8 40.9 41.1 41.7 33 32.0 31 29 27 25 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 New York State Assembly Local Governments 44
BUDGET SUMMARY: STATE OPERATIONS AND WORKFORCE Little growth in agency budgets have resulted in lower State Operations spending than was anticipated four years ago. $ Billions 22 Recent State Operations Actions Lower Spending by $1.6 Billion Annually 21 20 $0.977 $1.618 $1.333 $1.639 19 18 Actuals/Recent Projections Estimated Spending Before Actions 17 11 12 13 14 15 New York State Assembly State Operations and Workforce 45
BUDGET SUMMARY: STATE OPERATIONS AND WORKFORCE Pension contribution rates have grown for the past decade. 40% Historical Pension Contribution Rates 30% TRS ERS PFRS 20% 10% 0% 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 New York State Assembly State Operations and Workforce 46
BUDGET SUMMARY: STATE OPERATIONS AND WORKFORCE The workforce has decreased by 19 percent over the past 20 years while State Operations spending has steadily grown. Thousands 200 State Workforce 180 160 140 State Operations Spending and Workforce FTE's Spending $ Billions 25 20 15 10 State Ops Spending 120 5 100 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 New York State Assembly State Operations and Workforce 47
Economy
ECONOMY According to the Division of Budget, real U.S. GDP is projected to grow 2.7 percent in 2014, and 2.9 percent in 2015. GDP growth will be driven by increases in household spending, healthier housing markets, stronger labor markets, and stronger growth in domestic and global demand. % 3 U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1 0 (1) (0.3) (2) (3) (2.8) 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: NYS Division of the Budget. New York State Assembly Economy 49
ECONOMY The Executive forecasts New York State employment to grow 1.2 percent in 2014. National employment growth is projected to outpace the State in 2014, while State wages are forecast to grow at a faster rate than the nation. % 6 NYS and U.S. Growth Comparison (Executive Budget forecasts for 2014) 5.4 4.5 4 2 1.7 1.2 0 Total Non-farm Employment Wages Source: New York State Division of the Budget. U.S. New York State New York State Assembly Economy 50
ECONOMY The Executive forecasts New York State private employment to grow 1.5 percent in 2014, driven by growth in leisure, hospitality and other services, construction, educational services, and business services. New York State Employment Growth Forecast for 2014 Percent Total 1.2 Total Private 1.5 Leisure, Hospitality and Other Services 2.6 Construction 2.5 Educational Services 2.5 Management, Administrative, and Support Services 2.4 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2.0 Healthcare & Social Assistance Services 1.7 Retail Trade 1.2 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1.0 Transportation and Warehousing 1.0 Wholesale Trade 0.6 Information 0.4 Manufacturing and Mining (0.2) Finance and Insurance (0.3) Government (0.3) Utilities (1.2) Note: Management, and administration and support services includes NAICS sectors 55 and 56; sum of sectors may not match the total due to the exclusion of unclassified. Source: New York State Division of the Budget. New York State Assembly Economy 51
ECONOMY Regionally, in the first half of 2013, employment growth in Downstate New York outpaced employment growth in Upstate New York. New York State Private Employment Growth by Region 2013 (%) New York City Long Island Capital District Hudson Valley North Country Western New York Southern Tier Central New York Finger Lakes Mohawk Valley Note: Data are based on the first two quarters of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Source: New York State Division of the Budget. 0.0-0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.4 New York State Assembly Economy 52
Revenue
REVENUE All Funds tax receipts have returned to trend growth but remain somewhat restrained by past and proposed actions. $ Billions NYS All Funds Tax Receipts and Executive's Proposed Tax Law Changes For Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2017-18 90 80 70 Proposed Executive Actions (Lost Revenue) Actual and Projected Receipts Housing "bubble" Tax Reform 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 60 50 NYS Recession 40 30 20 10 0 41 44 42 39 43 48 53 59 61 60 56 61 64 66 69 71 74 77 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New York State Assembly Revenue 53
REVENUE All Funds receipts are estimated to total $141.9 billion, almost half of which are dedicated to Special Revenue Funds. $ Billions 200 150 Receipts by Fund Type General Special Revenue Capital Projects Debt Service 100 50 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 New York State Assembly Revenue 54
REVENUE The surcharge and tax reform have provided significant support to personal income tax receipts. Value of PIT Surcharge and Tax Reform $ Billions 5 4.9 5 4 4.0 3.8 4 3 2.5 2.6 2.4 3 2 2 1 1 0 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 $ Billions 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Surcharge and Tax Reform Contribution to Personal Income Tax Receipts Actual PIT PIT without Surcharge 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 New York State Assembly Revenue 55
REVENUE All Funds tax receipts are estimated to increase by 4.7 percent in 2013-14 followed by growth of 2.0 percent in 2014-15 on the strength of the personal income tax. Following robust gains in personal income tax collections in 2013-14, due to the timing of certain payments, receipts growth is forecast to return to trend growth. Executive Budget - All Funds Receipts ($ in Millions) 2012-13 2013-14 % Change 2014-15 % Change Personal Income Tax $40,227 $42,846 6.5% $44,131 3.0% User Taxes $14,615 $15,107 3.4% $15,480 2.5% Business Taxes $8,465 $8,186-3.3% $7,853-4.1% Other $2,995 $3,275 9.4% $3,330 1.7% Total Taxes $66,302 $69,414 4.7% $70,794 2.0% Miscellaneous Receipts $24,030 $23,850-0.7% $25,315 6.1% Federal Funds $42,843 $47,506 10.9% $45,792-3.6% Total All Funds $133,175 $140,770 5.7% $141,901 0.8% New York State Assembly Revenue 56
Capital and Debt
CAPITAL AND DEBT The Executive proposes to implement $5.4 billion of new Capital Obligations to promote education, health care, technological innovations and economic growth for the State of New York. New Capital Obligations SFY 2014-15 Executive Budget ($ in Thousands) FY 2015 Appropriations Smart Schools Bond Referendum 2,000,000 Health Care Restructuring 1,200,000 Economic Development 1,041,650 Higher Education Infrastructure 773,628 Hazardous Waste Remediation (Superfund) 100,000 All Other 247,700 Total 5,362,978 New York State Assembly Capital and Debt 57
CAPITAL AND DEBT The current projections show that outstanding debt will be close to capacity in SFY 2016-27 yet rebounding in the following years. $ Billions 3.5 Remaining Debt Capacity 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.59 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 14 15 16 17 18 19 New York State Assembly Capital and Debt 58
CAPITAL AND DEBT New York State- supported Debt Service is estimated to be $5.7 billion for SFY 2014-15. $ Billions Debt Service 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3.6 4.1 4.1 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.7 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.1 5.7 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.2 0 00 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 Fiscal Year New York State Assembly Capital and Debt 59
CAPITAL AND DEBT The Executive budget proposes increasing Capital Project spending to $8.5 in SFY 2014-15 reaching $9.4 billion in SFY 2015-16 and returning to trend levels of $8.4 billion in SFY 2018-19. $ Billions 10 Capital Project Spending 8 6 4 2 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.1 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.5 9.4 8.4 8.0 8.4 0 00 01 02 '03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Fiscal Year New York State Assembly Capital and Debt 60
CAPITAL AND DEBT New York State-supported Debt Outstanding is estimated to be $57.4 billion for SFY 2014-15, an increase of $1.9 billion or 3.6 percent over the previous fiscal year. NYS-Supported Debt Outstanding by Function 32.0% 28.9% 10.8% 10.0% 8.9% 4.6% 4.2% Education $17.6B Transportation $16.1B State Facilities & Equipment $5.9B Economic Development & Housing $5.5B Health & Mental Hygiene $5.0B Envi ronment $2.6B LGAC $2.6B New York State Assembly Capital and Debt 61