Trends in crashing Communications Committee Meeting Insurance Information Institute Washington, D.C. June 14, 2015 Matt Moore, Vice President iihs.org
IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses deaths, injuries and property damage from crashes on the nation s roads. HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
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Fatal crash trends
Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950-2014 60,000 55,000 50,000 1966 54.9 per billion 50,894 deaths Motor vehicle crash deaths 80 70 60 50 45,000 40 40,000 35,000 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 30 20 2014 10 10.8 per billion 32,675 deaths 30,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0
US motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate 1950-2014 60,000 20 55,000 50,000 Motor vehicle crash deaths 15 45,000 10 40,000 35,000 30,000 Unemployment rate 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 5 0 6 percent 32,675
Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate 1951-2014 20 15 80 10 5 Unemployment rate 40 0-5 0-10 -15 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled -40-20 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10-80
Collision loss trends
Collision claim frequencies By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years Claims per 100 insured vehicle years 10 8 6 4 2 cars pickups SUVs all vehicles 0 change in reporting procedures for 1 company 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Collision claim severities By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 cars pickups SUVs all vehicles $0 change in reporting procedures for 1 company 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Collision overall losses By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 cars pickups SUVs all vehicles $0 change in reporting procedures for 1 company 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Changes in teen driver exposure
The Washington Post, 8-1-13 Collision Week, 6-10-2013 Automotive News, 5-17-13 The New York Times, 6-30-13 Today, 7-12-13 The Detroit News, 8-6-13 Deseret News, 7-14-13
Changes in teen exposure Study design calendar years 2006-14 model years rolling 10 teen exposure 8.7 million years prime exposure covariates study variable 220 million years unemployment spread, census population ratio, GDL intermediate licensing age teen-to-prime exposure ratio
Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14 30,000,000 4.2 25,000,000 4.1 20,000,000 4.0 exposure 15,000,000 3.9 exposure ratio 10,000,000 prime exposure 3.8 teen exposure 5,000,000 teen to prime ratio 3.7 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3.6
Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14, indexed to 2006 1.10 4.2 1.05 4.1 1.00 4.0 exposure 0.95 0.90 3.9 exposure ratio 0.85 0.80 prime exposure teen exposure teen to prime ratio 3.8 3.7 0.75 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3.6
Comparison of national teen and prime unemployment rates 2006-14 30 25 unemployment rate 20 15 10 prime unemployment teen unemployment unemployment spread 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14, indexed to 2006 4.2 20 19 4.1 18 exposure ratio 4.0 3.9 3.8 17 16 15 14 13 unemployment spread 3.7 teen to prime ratio unemployment spread 12 11 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10
Teen technology
Collision claim frequencies and violent crime rates
Violent crime rate calendar years 2006-14 model year 1998-2015 exposure 478,859,131 claims 2,935,483 independent variables vehicle age, vehicle type, rated driver age, gender, marital status, deductible, risk, registered vehicle density, state, percent of resident with high school or higher education, violent crime rate, and violent crime rate by driver age
Increase in collision claim frequency for each additional violent crime per 1,000 people By calendar year and rated driver age group 5% 4% 3% <20 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 2% 1% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Alcohol related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: 31 percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers had BAC 0.08 percent Impact of alcohol enforcement: A review of studies of sobriety checkpoint programs found a median decline of 22 percent in fatal crashes thought to involve alcohol (Elder, et. al., 2002). In the absence of special enforcement efforts, as few as 1 in 2,000 drivers with a high BAC are arrested (Williams, 1989). An 18 percent reduction in injury and fatal crashes was found in California with roving patrols (Stuster & Blowers, 1995). In Michigan DUI saturation patrols reduced the proportion of alcohol positive drivers involved in fatal crashes by 14 percent (Fell, Tippetts, & Levy, 2008)
Speed related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: Speeding was a factor is 28 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths Impact of speed enforcement: Speed enforcement programs reduce speed related crashes 1-11 percent and the number of vehicles traveling over the limit by 10-19 percent (Stuster, 1995). Violent crimes decline 1-8 percent in special speed enforcement areas (Stuster, 1995). Average speeds return to pre-enforcement levels after enforcement has been removed (Hauer, et al., 1982).
Average vehicle horsepower 1983-2015 model years 400 300 200 100 cars pickups SUVs 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent increase in mean vehicle speed per 10 horsepower/100 lb. increase by speed limit 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 speed limit 40-45 mph speed limit 50-55 mph speed limit 60-65 mph
Front crash prevention
Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake 0% -10% -20% PDL collision -30% Mazda (smart city brake support) Mazda (smart city brake support & FCW) Volvo City Safety FCA (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord radar (with LDW + ACC) Mercedes- Benz Volvo Acura Mercedes- Benz Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% 0% -10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake -20% -30% -40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Mazda low speed Mazda (smart city brake support) Mazda combined MedPay PIP Mazda (smart city brake support & FCW) Volvo City Safety Volvo City Safety Chrysler (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord (includes LDW) warning only FCA (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord Touring Honda Accord radar (with LDW + ACC) Bodily injury liability Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo (includes warning with autobrake LDW) Mercedes- Benz Volvo Acura Mercedes- Benz Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
Front crash prevention systems Change in collision claim severity $1,500 $1,000 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 Mazda Mazda (smart (smart city brake city brake support) support & FCW) Volvo City Safety FCA (with ACC, BSM &RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord radar (with LDW & ACC) Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
Honda Accord forward collision warning Camera vs. radar available on trims other than Touring change in collision claim severity -$145 standard on Touring trim change in collision claim severity $522
Front crash prevention systems Change in collision overall losses $150 $100 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $50 $0 -$50 -$100 Mazda Mazda (smart (smart city brake city brake support) support & FCW) Volvo City Safety FCA (with ACC, BSM & RCTA) Honda Accord camera (with LDW) Honda Accord radar (with LDW & ACC) Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru (with LDW) Volvo (with LDW)
The percentage of vehicles in the U.S. fleet with advanced safety systems
New vehicle series with front crash prevention By model year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 standard optional not available
Registered vehicles with front crash prevention By calendar year 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 standard optional not available
Registered vehicles with available front crash prevention, actual and predicted By calendar year 100% 80% 60% 40% predicted actual 20% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Estimated change in PDL claim frequency due to increased fitment of FCW systems Based on estimated effect of 10% 100% 0% vehicles with feature 80% 60% 40% 20% optional assumption: 20% 2020 mandate -5% -10% change in claim frequency 0% -15% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Competing visions of autonomous driving
Animal strikes
National comprehensive claim frequencies for animal strikes January 2006 through December 2015 18 15 November August 12 9 6 3 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
November animal-strike claims Per 1,000 insured vehicle years 25 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 < 5 does not meet 100 November claims threshold
Comprehensive claims and dollars By loss type, 2013-15 models claims vandalism 4.5% dollars vandalism 5.9% animal strike 9.9% other 10.4% weather 5.7% theft 2.0% fire 0.2% animal strike 27.4% other 16.4% weather 23.7% glass 67.4% glass 13.7% theft 10.6% fire 2.3%
Point of impact distribution calendar years 2004-13 and model years 2001-14 17.1% 55.9% 14.4% 10.5% 30.2% 11.1% 3.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.2% 3.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 2.8% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% animal-strike claims 6.1% 16.1% 5.6% collision claims
Large animal crash prevention system 2017 Volvo S90 2017 Volvo XC90
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