An Assessment of the Social and Economic Benefits of a Relational Partnering Model

An Assessment of the Social and Economic Benefits of a Relational Partnering Model A Final Report by Regeneris Consulting January 2018

Public Sector Plc An Assessment of the Social and Economic Benefits of a Relational Partnering Model January 2018 www.regeneris.co.uk

Contents Page 1. Scope of Report 2 2. Overview of Relational Partnering 5 3. Assessment of Partnerships Impacts 9 4. Scaling up 18 Appendix A - Methodology Note Appendix B - Detailed Breakdown of Socio-Economic Impacts

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1. Scope of Report 1.1 Regeneris Consulting Ltd was commissioned by Public Sector Plc (PSP) to undertake an assessment of the aggregate impacts generated as a result of PSP s partnerships with 21 Authorities from across England. The aim of this study is to understand the social and economic benefits, as well as the broader impacts supported by the innovative relational partnering approach. Public Sector Plc Public Sector Plc (PSP) was established to provide the public sector with a new public-private partnership option. PSP is a hybrid solution offering the public sector additional resources to enhance capacity with regards to obtaining greater value from the public sector s property estate. At present, PSP has formed partnerships with 21 (upper and lower tier) Authorities across England, including seven partnerships in the North 1, six across the Midlands 2, and eight across the South 3 of England. This number is expected to increase as more partnerships are formed, and an innovative approach to generating value from public sector property assets is adopted by more Councils nationally. Our Approach 1.2 This study is designed to explore the overall (aggregate) impacts of the relational partnering model adopted by 21 Authorities, and undertakes a quantitative analysis of completed and active projects promoted by all the partnerships. It also provides an estimate of the potential impacts of extending the PSP model to include more Local Authorities nationwide. 1 including: Bolton, Cheshire West and Chester, Scarborough, Warrington, Wigan and Wyre Forest. 2 including: Cannock Chase, Daventry, Dudley, Lichfield, South Staffordshire and Warwick. 3 including: Dorset County, Isle of Wight, North Dorset, Southend-on-Sea, Southampton, West Dorset and Weymouth & Plymouth. 2

1.3 Our approach has focussed on the two key elements. A detailed explanation of the method for assessing the impacts of PSP s partnerships is included in Appendix A, however this includes: an assessment of gross economic impacts resulting from the 21 partnerships, drawing on the analysis of key outputs and financials. The economic impacts take account of additionality (ie. the impacts that would have been achieved anyway), and include jobs, gross value added (GVA) and construction impacts. identification of the wider benefits generated as a result of the partnerships interventions, including carbon (CO 2 ) savings from better-performing homes and commercial premises, New Homes Bonus, public-sector jobs supported, and additional jobs supported by increased household expenditure. A note on data accuracy 1.4 This report uses data provided by PSP to assess the social and economic impacts of its 21 partnerships nationally. A series of assumptions are made to derive these social and economic impacts, and the potential benefits of more partnerships being formed nationally. This means that the evidence presented below has different levels of certainty, and can be broken down as follows: high certainty: this is the case when impact figures are based on projects which have gone through PSP s appraisal process. This includes projects which are either being taken forward by local authority partners and/ or private developers. As a result, in the analysis presented below, completed projects can be assigned a high level of certainty. medium certainty: is used to assess the social and economic impacts that could be generated by projects which are still active and/ or in their early phases. In many instances, these projects are still developing, which means that several options could be delivered. In the following analysis active projects are assigned a medium level of certainty. 3

lower certainty: this applies to the impacts that could be generated if a relational partnering model is adopted more widely. This assessment draws on completed and active projects by the current (21) partnerships, scaled up to include 353 4 potential partnerships nationally. Structure of the Report 1.5 The remainder of the report is set out as follows: Section 2 presents an overview of relational partnering, the case for intervention, and added value of this delivery model. Section 3 presents an assessment of the aggregated socio-economic and wider impacts generated by PSP s 21 partnerships nationally. Section 4 presents an estimate of the potential impacts that could be generated should more Local Authorities adopt a relational partnership model. 4 This consists of 27 County Councils (upper tier), 201 District Councils (lower tier), 32 London Boroughs (unitary), 36 Metropolitan Boroughs (unitary), 55 Unitary Authorities, the City of London and Isles of Scilly. 4

2. Overview of Relational Partnering 2.1 Established in the late 1990s to early 2000s, Public Sector Plc (PSP) owes its origins to the days of compulsory competitive trading and a drive for outsourcing within local government. The PSP model was developed to deliver a step-by-step facilitation process coupled with robust and flexible governance arrangements. 2.2 The model adopted is a relational one, and seeks to primarily use local authority assets (operational, non-operational and/ or investments) to achieve the following: realise revenue savings; establish new and/ or enhance revenue income streams; generate improved levels of capital receipts from projects; make more efficient use of local authorities property assets; de-risk property transactions; and enable local authority partners to benefit from the value created by the private sector. 2.3 As of November 2017, PSP was involved in 21 partnerships across the country, promoting over 100 (completed and/ or active) projects. The projects promoted by PSP and its partners are primarily property-focussed and include the delivery of new dwellings, commercial spaces, mixed-use schemes, social assets (eg. libraries and care homes), capital investments, as well as the rationalisation of property assets (incl. a ground rent portfolio in Bolton, hotels in Weymouth and Portland, and car parks in Southend-on-Sea). 2.4 The following section looks in some detail at the rationale of, and case for intervention as well as the added value of adopting a relational partnering model. This section is based on desk-based review of current literature and previous work assessing the economic and social impacts of the Bolton LLP undertaken in 2016 on behalf of PSP. 5

The Case for Intervention 2.5 Local government has suffered greatly from the impacts of the recent economic downturn. This has primarily shown itself in a slow-down of development activity, as well as dramatic reductions in the budgets used to fund local services and invest in growth. 2.6 Shrinking budgets coupled with increased pressure on councils to find alternative sources of revenue funding, have raised several questions about the role of local government and its ability to shape (and support) local growth. A consequence of these pressures was a change in how publicly-owned property assets came to be viewed as a way of closing the funding gap. Furthermore, a change in focus by local government on the need for efficiencies and long-term benefits vs one-off payments through the sale of land and property assets meant that new delivery models were explored. 2.7 Traditionally, public sector approaches for implementing property strategies and delivering long-term regeneration can be grouped under three major types: 1) status quo/ do nothing: this approach assumes no action, but is not a viable option, especially at a time when local authorities need to find alternative, long-term sources of revenue funding; 2) use of council s own resources: this allows local authorities to retain full control of delivery, but reduces the council s access to external expertise and investment; and 3) outsourcing to an external provider: this approach hands the project s overall responsibility to a third party, and is based on legal contracts and financial transactions. The challenge of such an approach is that the public sector has little control and/ or say on what is ultimately delivered. 2.8 A short review of the literature indicates that these traditional approaches do not always represent best value for money for the public sector, and a fourth option focussing on building relationships, can deliver the same or greater benefits as any of the three approaches assessed. 2.9 This option, referred to as relational partnering places relationship building at the fore of the delivery model, and works on the assumption of in-sourcing market skills and additional capacity to the local authority. 6

2.10 The rationale for adopting relational partnering is based on several benefits, including: additional capacity: a relational model works on the concept of in-souring which means making additional capacity, skills and expertise available to local authority inhouse resources; building stronger relationships: focussed on achieving growth, and which go beyond traditional transactional approaches; delivery of projects sooner and more efficiently: this allows councils to capture additional value, and kick-start long-term regeneration. This is especially relevant for sites on which development is stalled due to limited viability; and generate additional revenue income streams: take pressure off local authority budget reduction exercises. Added Value of a Relational Partnering Model 2.11 The delivery of projects through a relational partnering model generates several socioeconomic and wider benefits. A relational partnering model, however also provides added value over and above the measurable benefits discussed in the next section, such as: Generating land value uplift from public sector-owned property assets. This is increasingly being used as an effective way to make up shortfalls in government funding for councils, and secure long-term revenue funding. Encourages councils to adopt an innovative approach to public sector delivery. Through the relational partnering model PSP and its public sector partners are showing leadership and stimulating growth and economic activity. Tied to this, a relational partnering model also plays a role in delivering local authority housing targets acting as a catalyst for regeneration, unlocking (difficult, less viable) sites for development, and achieving results sooner than would have otherwise been the case. By enabling the sharing of risks with the private sector and addressing viability issues, a relational partnering model has potential to address market failure and boost confidence in the local area. Projects promoted through the relational partnering model are increasingly promoting innovation in terms of new construction methods (eg. off-site/ prefabrication) or new technologies (eg. zero-carbon schools), as well as exploring new 7

ways of financing service delivery (eg. through an innovation fund available to councils and local authority areas). The delivery of new homes and commercial spaces, as well as the delivery of longterm regeneration will, in addition to the benefits discussed above, also produce a number of Exchequer benefits through increased participation in the labour market and a wider tax base. Delivered as part of wide-ranging regeneration initiatives, the projects promoted through relational partnering can generate additional social value in several ways, by (1) empowering people, (2) delivering better places, and (3) increasing prosperity for all. 8

3. Assessment of Partnerships Impacts 3.1 This section presents an aggregate of the social, economic and wider benefits that could be supported once all 100+ projects (completed and active projects) promoted by the 21 partnerships are delivered. 3.2 A detailed breakdown of the impacts generated as a result of completed and active projects separated by region (North, Midlands and/ or South) is available in Appendix B. Social and Economic Impacts Construction Impacts 3.3 Based on the assessment of the different projects (completed, and active) promoted by the 21 partnerships, it is estimated that 2,260 new homes and 110,910 sq. metres of commercial floorspace (incl. office, manufacturing, distribution, and retail) could be delivered as a result of relational partnering. Table 3.1 below outlines the number of homes and commercial floorspace that are promoted as part of completed and active projects separately. 3.4 Using information available from PSP s records, as well as industry standards (ie. comparable building costs for each scheme promoted, in addition to a small contingency) we estimate total construction investment for all projects to be around 374.1 million. Table 3.1 Estimated impacts of construction activity Completed Active Total New homes 435 1,825 2,260 Commercial space (sq. metres) 2,800 108,110 110,910 Construction spend ( million) 49.1 325.0 374.1 Total construction GVA impacts ( million) 59.3 348.0 407.2 Construction GVA per annum ( million) (over 2 to 3-year period) 19.8 29.6 116.0 174.0 135.8 203.6 Construction jobs supported (over 2 to 3-year period) 290 440 1,714 2,570 2,005 3,010 Source: Regeneris Consulting calculations, 2018 9

3.5 Based on this spend, it is estimated that construction activity could generate a total economic output (also referred to as gross value added 5 ) of 407.2 million to the national economy. Assuming an average construction period of 2-3 years for each project, this would equate to an impact of between 135.8 and 203.6 million each year, and support between 2,005 and 3,010 jobs in construction 6. 3.6 This figure is based on labour coefficients for different construction types 7, and includes both on-site and off-site employment. Off-site employment will arise as a result of expenditure within the sector s supply chain (such as aggregates, materials and any off-site construction). It is expected that a significant proportion of the construction jobs generated by the promoted schemes would be accessible to local residents. New Residents 3.7 The delivery of around 2,260 new dwellings promoted through relational partnering are estimated to house around 5,200 residents. This figure is derived from average household sizes identified by the 2014-based Sub-National Household Projections 8 (SNHP). Furthermore, using demographic information from the latest population estimates 9 (for 2016) it is possible to estimate the proportion of new residents that would be of working age (ie. aged 16 to 64), in addition to the number children aged under 16. 3.8 Economic activity and employment rates are the highest they have been in a very long time. Typically, for new housing both economic activity and employment rates tend to be very high, and as such it is assumed that the current rates will persist into the future. Based on this assumption it is estimated that once all homes are fully occupied, around 2,430 of the new residents would be in work and/ or seeking employment opportunities locally. Using local estimates on residents occupations it is possible to estimate that c. 1,400 of the new residents (ie. over half of all working age residents) would be employed in highly skilled (and hence better paying) occupations. 5 Gross value added (GVA) is a measure of wealth creation. In this study GVA is defined as a measure of profit + investment + employment income + taxes, and excludes any subsidies paid. 6 In reality, the annual impacts generated as a result of the construction activity may be less than the figure quoted above, as projects are normally delivered over a much wider timescale (than that suggested above). 7 Homes and Communities Agency (2015), Calculating Cost Per Job: Best Practice Note, 3 rd Edition. 8 Department for Communities and Local Government (2016), 2014-based Sub-National Household Projections. 9 Office for National Statistics (2017), Population estimates local authority based by single year of age. 10

Table 3.2 Labour supply impacts of new housing Completed Active Total New dwellings 435 1,825 2,260 Total population 1,005 5,160 5,165 Working age (16 to 64) 610 2,545 3,155 Economically active residents 460 1,970 2,430 Residents in employment 435 1,890 2,325 Residents in highly skilled occupations 250 1,105 1,360 Source: Regeneris Consulting calculations, 2018 Job Creation 3.9 Current proposals for commercial schemes across the 21 partnerships indicate that once fully completed, these would support a mix of employment uses such as retail, office-based, light industrial, manufacturing, accommodation and leisure, as well as social care services (eg. residential care facilities). 3.10 Using employment densities from the Homes and Communities Agency 10 (now Homes England), as well as evidence gathered from PSP s project appraisal forms, it is estimated that around 2,700 full-time equivalent 11 (FTE) jobs could be supported (directly) on-site by the promoted schemes. 3.11 In addition, it is estimated that the (direct) on-site jobs would support an additional 1,500 FTE jobs indirectly through businesses supply chain spend. In this instance, supply chain benefits refer to the impacts generated as a result of goods and/ or services bought by the on-site businesses (eg. the sourcing of raw materials to), but exclude the impacts generated by employees spend within the local economy 12. 10 Homes and Communities Agency (2015), Employment Density Guide, 3 rd edition. 11 Full time equivalent (FTE) is a unit that indicates the workload of an employed person. An FTE of 1.0 is equivalent to 1 full-time employee, whilst a part-time employee working half the hours a full-time employee does would be recorded as 0.5 FTE. 12 These impacts are referred to as induced benefits and are assessed elsewhere in this report. 11

Table 3.3 Employment supported by commercial developments Completed Active Total Commercial space (sq. metres) 2,800 108,110 110,910 Direct (on-site) jobs 215 2,480 2,695 Supply chain jobs 235 1,265 1,500 Total jobs (direct + supply chain) 650 3,475 4,095 Total (direct + supply chain) GVA impact ( million) 24.8 251.3 276.1 Source: Regeneris Consulting calculations, 2018 Wider Benefits 3.12 The delivery of the 100+ projects promoted by relational partnering is expected to result in a number of wider benefits which can be measured, including increased expenditure and the associated (induced) employment, the demand for additional public sector employment, land value uplift, and fiscal benefits in the form of New Homes Bonus payments, developer contributions (through Section 106 or Community Infrastructure Levy payments), and increases in business rates receipts and Council Tax payments. Increased Expenditure 3.13 The delivery of 2,260 new homes and 110,910 sq. metres of commercial space promoted through relational partnering is expected to generate additional expenditure within the local economy. The increased (induced) expenditure generated by the new residents and on-site employees is expected to help support employment in local retailers and other service providers. 3.14 The scale of these employment impacts would, in effect, be determined by where residents choose to spend their income and the types of goods and services they purchase. Given that this section looks at the nation-wide impacts generated by the increased expenditure, it is assumed that there is very little leakage outside of the United Kingdom. 12

3.15 Using data on typical salaries 13 as well as average annual household expenditure from the Family spending in the UK survey 14, it is estimated that the new residents accommodated within these new dwellings could generate an annual expenditure of around 82.9 million. 3.16 In addition, it is assumed that the 2,695 employees based in the (new) commercial spaces delivered as part of the promoted schemes, could generate an additional (induced) spend of 2.8 million each year to the local economy. This is based on desk-based research which has identified that a typical employee spends between 7.80 and 10.60 each day on lunch and/ or snacks. 3.17 In total, it is estimated that the residents accommodated within the new dwellings and the additional on-site employees generate an additional spend of around 85.7 million each year. In turn, this spend could support c. 1,670 FTE jobs as a result of the induced spending. 3.18 Whilst it is difficult to precisely define the nature of the jobs that would be generated by the increased expenditure, it is likely that these jobs/ occupations would range across several sectors, and include both higher and lower value occupations, such as: customer-facing posts at comparison and convenience retailers; several managerial and supervisory posts; posts in leisure and entertainment facilities (such as bars, cafés, restaurants, hotels and other leisure locations); and transport-related positions (including service operators and jobs relating to car sales and repairs). 13 based on (gross) median salaries from Office for National Statistics (2017), Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings for 2017. 14 Office for National Statistics (2017), Family spending in the UK: financial year ending March 2016 13

Public Sector Employment 3.19 In addition to the induced jobs generated as a result of the increased local expenditure, residents of the new housing would also generate demand for a range of public services within the local economy. The nature of the demand for public services will vary, but could be expected to include services in health (eg. dentists, GPs and hospitals), education (eg. nurseries, primary and secondary schools) and other public administration functions. 3.20 Using average ratios of population to jobs in these sectors, we estimate that the demand for public services from the new residents could lead to the creation of between 255 to 370 public sector (FTE) jobs nationally. 3.21 The extent of these impacts would depend on the level of demand generated by the new residents, and the way in which local services respond to this demand. The locations and facilities where this employment is generated would be determined based on where the new residents choose to access these services. 14

Carbon Savings 3.22 It is assumed that once completed, all new homes and commercial spaces delivered are more energy efficient than similar spaces currently in use. Using desk-based research it is assumed that the new homes delivered as a result of relational partnering are c. 16% more energy efficient 15 than traditional homes, whilst commercial spaces could be expected to be around 30% more energy efficient 16 in comparison with current spaces. 3.23 Based on these assumptions it is estimated that once delivered all new dwellings and commercial spaces would use around 9.6 GWh less energy each year when compared with traditional structures. Using a 20-year appraisal period 17, these annual efficiency savings would lead to in 677 kt of CO 2 (or equivalent) savings (ie. not released in the atmosphere) and generate a net present value of over 250 million. In simple terms, this refers to the costs that would be associated with mitigating the negative effects of releasing these emissions into the atmosphere. 15 US Department of Housing and Urban Development (2013), American Housing Survey for the United States: 2011. 16 This assumption is based on benchmarks from the JLL website: http://www.jll.co.uk/united-kingdom/engb/services/developers-and-investors/sustainability/real-estate-environmental-benchmark/the-benchmarks [accessed 22/11/2017]. 17 as per typical DCLG guidance. 15

Land Value Uplift 3.24 In addition, the 100+ projects promoted through relational partnering are expected to generate around 184.2 million of land value uplift. This analysis looks at the current and proposed uses for each site, and draws on DCLG guidance 18. Based on this guidance, it is assumed that the land value uplift takes places as soon as planning permission is granted. This uplift can, in turn generate additional fiscal benefits and/ or unlock further assets as projects are delivered and/ or disposed to other delivery partners. New Homes Bonus 3.25 Assuming that all new homes once built are classified as Band C and/ or Band D would mean that in aggregate the 21 partnerships could receive between 14.3 and 16.1 million in New Homes Bonus payments. These payments 19 are typically spread over a five-year period, with the last annual payment received five years after the final property is completed and entered onto the Councils tax register. 3.26 The New Homes Bonus has potential to provide an alternative source of funding for Local Authority areas (eg. to support local services and/ or investing in much needed facilities), at a time of considerable pressures on public finances. 18 Department for Communities and Local Government (2016), The DCLG Appraisal Guide. 19 Available only to local authorities in England 16

Developer Contributions 3.27 Local Authority partners also stand to benefit from developer contributions from all proposed developments being taken forward. Developer contributions can come in either of the following: Section 106 (S106) agreements: these will be agreed between the developer(s) and each respective Local Authority, and will be used to contribute to local infrastructure and/ or services related to the development. Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL): this mechanism provides for investment in local infrastructure through developer contributions which are calculated based on the floor space of new developments. At present, it is impossible to provide a comprehensive estimate of CIL contributions for all partnerships as several Local Authority areas are still developing their respective charging schemes. Business Rates Receipts 3.28 In addition to generating (direct) on-site employment, the delivery of new commercial space is also expected to generate additional income in the form of business rate receipts. Based on the delivery of 110,910 sq. metres of commercial space, it is estimated that around 2.2 million in business rates revenue could be generated each year. Council Tax 3.29 Assuming that all new homes delivered through the promoted projects are classified as Band C and/ or Band D would mean that in aggregate the 21 partnerships could stand to receive between 3.0 and 3.4 in additional Council Tax payments each year. 17

4. Scaling up 4.1 This section analyses the potential socio-economic and wider benefits that could be generated as a result of a relational partnering model being adopted more widely. This section assumes that the current benefits generated by 21 partnerships scaled up to 353 partnerships. This figure considers all local government tiers nationally (ie. only in England), and includes: 27 County Councils (upper tier) 201 District Councils (lower tier) 32 London Boroughs 36 Metropolitan Boroughs 55 Unitary Authorities City of London and Isles of Scilly. 4.2 Please note that the figures presented in the infographic below are hypothetical, and could vary based on the actual number of partnerships formed, in addition to the level of engagement secured. 4.3 In reading this section, we recommend caution as the scaled-up figures are identified as having lower confidence levels when compared with the assessment of completed (high certainty) and active projects (medium certainty) presented above 20. 20 For additional information on confidence levels please see the A note on data accuracy section (para. 1.4) above. 18

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Appendix A - Methodology Note A.1 The impact model used to assess the social and economic impacts of ca relational partnering approach promoted by PSP is based on information about each completed on/ or ongoing project on PSP s books. This includes over 100 projects delivered across 21 partnerships. A.2 The following is an overview of the method used to assess the different indicators identified in the main section of this report. Household Expenditure Impacts A.3 The household expenditure impacts model estimates the likely annual household spend for each partnership and is based on median salaries for residents in each respective partnership to estimate the relative income group for each proposed development. Once the income group is determined, typical expenditure on different categories of goods and services is determined using the ONS Family spending in the UK survey. As this study looks at the economic impacts generated at the national level, the leakage of expenditure on goods and services to outside of the UK is assumed to be 0%. A.4 The model then deducts indirect taxation to arrive at a figure for total spend, and converts this to jobs using an estimate of output per full time equivalent (FTE) employee in different sectors (based on the UK Business Survey). Labour Market Impacts A.5 We use the DCLG Survey of Housing in England to estimate the total number of people living in each dwelling and the latest mid-year population data and Annual Population Survey to estimate the proportion of the population who are working age, and in employment. A.6 To estimate the skills level of residents, we have made use of data from the Annual Population Survey to cross reference this with the occupational profile of the residents who live in each partnership, and applied this breakdown to the residents we expect to be in employment on the proposed development. A - 1

New Homes Bonus A.7 This calculation uses the same methodology as that employed by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) for calculating the possible revenue generated through the New Homes Bonus (NHB). Council Tax A.8 Annual Council Tax revenue generated as a result of the new dwellings is based on the assumption that all new dwellings, once delivered are classified as either Band C and/ or Band D. Using Council Tax benchmarks available on DCLG s website it is possible to estimate the level of revenue that would be generated each year. Business Rate Receipts A.9 The assessment of potential business rates revenue generated as a result of the new development is based on the commercial floorspace identified across the different partnerships. This assessment draws on average rateable values (per sq. metre) for different land uses in each partnership available on the Valuation Office Agency s (VOA) website. Once the total rateable value for each property was identified, the small uniform business rates multiplier of 48.4p was applied to calculate an estimate of the additional business rate receipts that could be generated as a result of a promoted development. Land Value Uplift A.10 The assessment of land value uplift is based on the latest guidance from DCLG, and seeks to identify the true value generated as a result of different developments and considers the land value of site before and after a change in land use. Carbon Savings A.11 The assessment of projects carbon savings is based on a toolkit developed by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to assess the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions over a 20-year appraisal period. The toolkit draws on information on land use, energy saved and projected energy prices from different sources to estimate CO2 (or equivalent) savings and the costs that would be associated with mitigating the negative effects of releasing these emissions into the atmosphere. A - 2

Appendix B - Detailed Breakdown of Socio-Economic Impacts Table B.1 Estimated impacts of construction activity Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Total New homes 260 100 75 540 580 705 2,260 Commercial floorspace (sq. metres) 2,800 - - 93,620 6,345 8,140 110,910 Construction spend ( million) 27.2 12.8 9.1 140.5 84.6 99.9 374.1 Total construction GVA impacts ( million) 32.5 15.6 11.2 129.2 99.9 118.9 407.2 Construction GVA per annum ( million) (over 2 to 3-year construction period) 10.8 16.2 5.2 7.8 3.7 5.6 43.1 64.6 33.3 50.0 39.6-59.4 135.8 203.6 Construction jobs supported (over 2 to 3-year construction period) 160 240 75 115 55 85 635 955 490 740 585 880 2,005 3,010 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 B - 1

Table B.2 Labour supply impacts of new housing Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Total New homes 260 100 75 540 580 705 2,260 Total population 605 240 155 1,240 1,340 1,580 5,165 Working age (16 to 64) 375 145 90 765 835 950 3,155 Economically active residents 280 110 65 590 645 735 2,430 Residents in employment 265 105 65 560 625 700 2,325 Residents in highly skilled occupations 155 50 50 340 385 380 1,360 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 Table B.3 Employment supported by commercial developments Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Total Commercial floorspace (sq. metres) 2,800 - - 93,620 6,345 8,140 110,910 Direct (on-site) jobs 215 - - 2,000 330 150 2,695 Supply chain jobs 235 - - 865 290 110 1,500 Total jobs (direct + supply chain) 450 - - 2,865 620 260 4,095 Total (direct + supply chain) GVA impact ( million) 24.8 - - 210.8 30.9 9.7 276.1 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 B - 2

Table B.4 Increased expenditure effects Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Total Increased household expenditure each year ( million) 8.9 3.5 2.5 19.8 22.3 25.8 82.9 Increased local expenditure each year ( million) 0.2 - - 2.1 0.3 0.2 2.8 Total increased expenditure ( million) 9.1 3.5 2.5 21.9 22.6 26.0 85.7 (FTE) jobs supported as a result of increased expenditure 195 0 0 1,100 260 115 1,670 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 Table B.5 Demand for increased public-sector service-based jobs Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Number of jobs supported 30 15 60 65 80 10 45 20 90 95 115 Total 255 370 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 Table B.6 Estimated land value uplift Completed Active Total North Midlands South North Midlands South Land value uplift ( million) 23.9 4.2 2.7 106.6 26.1 20.7 184.2 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 B - 3

Table B.7 Carbon savings Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Total Energy savings (MW) 365 60 45 7,245 775 1,065 9,560 Total savings in CO 2 emissions (kt) over 20-year period 26.1 4.5 3.3 511.3 55.6 76.3 677.1 Impact of CO 2 savings over 20-year period ( million) 10.4 2.0 1.4 185.7 22.1 30.0 251.7 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 Table B.8 Estimated New Homes Bonus (total) and Council Tax revenue Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South New Homes Bonus (total) over 5-year period ( million) 1.6 3.4 3.7 4.5 0.7 0.5 1.8 3.8 4.1 5.0 Council Tax revenue ( million) annual 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.2.08 0.98 1.1 Total 14.3 16.1 3.0 3.4 Source: Regeneris Construction calculations, 2018 Table B.9 Carbon savings Completed Active North Midlands South North Midlands South Total Commercial floorspace (sq. metres) 2,800 - - 93,620 6,345 8,140 110,910 Business rates revenue ( million) 0.1 - - 1.6 0.3 0.3 2.2 B - 4

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