Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators December 2016 VOLUME X NUMBER 12 Lutgert College Of Business 10501 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 Phone 239-590-7090 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri
Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 4 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 4 Chart 2: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Tourist Tax Revenues... 6 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 6 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues... 7 Taxable Sales... 7 Chart 6: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region... 8 Chart 7: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties... 8 Chart 8: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties... 9 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment... 9 Chart 9: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment... 10 Chart 10: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment... 10 Chart 11: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment... 11 Chart 12: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment... 11 Chart 13: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment... 12 Single-Family Building Permits... 12 Chart 14: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County... 13 Chart 15: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County... 13 Chart 16: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County... 14 Sales of Existing Single Family Homes and Median Sales Prices... 14 Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County... 15 Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County... 15 Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County... 16 Consumer Sentiment Index... 16 Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index... 17 Consumer Price Index... 17 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 18 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change... 19 Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Unemployment... 19 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population, 1990 to 2040... 20 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population, 1990 to 2040... 20 Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP Growth, 2007 to Long Run... 21 Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment, 2007 to Long Run... 22 2
Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7090 Email: cwestley@fgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu.edu Copyright 2016 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background Southwest Florida s regional economy provided mixed signals during November. Positive trends included an 8-percent annual increase in seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales, a 5 percent increase in tourist tax revenue, and a 2 percent increase in total airline passenger activity. The seasonally-adjusted regional unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in October 2016 from 4.8 percent in September, still comparing somewhat favorably with the 5.1 percent figure of October 2015. The number of unemployed workers in the region increased by 1,049 from the prior month and by 159 from October 2015. Seasonally-adjusted regional employment increased by 15,605 from October 2015, and by 3,431 from September 2016. Charlotte, Collier, Hendry, and Lee Counties showed 3-percent increases in employment over October 2015, while Glades showed a 2-percent increase over the same time span. Other highlights from this report include: An 8-percent decline in single family home sales by Realtors in October 2016 compared to October 2015, according to data that became available during the month. An increase of 0.4 points in the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index for November 2016, to 90.2. Single-family building permits were down 6 percent for the coastal counties from October 2015 to October 2016. However, Hendry County issued 47 permits during the first 10 months of 2016, exceeding the amount issued during the first 10 months of 2015 by 32 permits. The RERI staff extends its sincere thanks and appreciation to the dedicated individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include FGCU student workers affiliated with the RERI, the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties, the regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 3
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate this seasonality as well as the changes from year to year. The three Southwest Florida airports recorded passenger activity of 525,016 in September 2016, up 2 percent from September 2015, although down 10 percent from August 2016. RSW had 391,844 passengers in September 2016, a decline of 3 percent from September 2015 and 9 percent below August 2016 (see Chart 1). Passenger activity in Punta Gorda amounted to 64,226, an increase of 66 percent from September 2015, but down 21 percent from August 2016 (Chart 2). Sarasota Bradenton activity dipped to 68,946 in September 2016, down 4 percent from September 2015, and 5 percent below August 2016 (Chart 3). Commercial activity resumed at Naples Municipal Airport in February 2016, and has amounted to 2,829 passengers through September 2016. Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 2013 2014 2015 2016 800 700 600 500 400 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 4
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 140 Chart 2: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity 120 100 80 60 2015 40 2014 20 0 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 175 Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity 150 125 2013 2014 2015 2016 100 75 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5
Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties, shown in Charts 4 and 5, are based on month of occupancy. Total seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties rose to $6,196,888 in September 2016, an improvement of 5 percent over September 2015 and a 28-percent increase over the prior month of August 2016. For September 2016, Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues amounted to $2,086,697, an increase of 2 percent over September 2015. In Lee County, revenues rose to $3,645,700, a 5-percent increase over September 2015. Charlotte County s seasonally-adjusted revenues rose to $427,216 in September 2016, up 13 percent from September 2015. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties 16.0 14.0 Tourist Tax Revenue 2011 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 6
Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues 4.0 County Tourist Tax Revenue - 2011 to present 3.5 3.0 2.5 Lee 2.0 1.5 Collier 1.0 0.5 Charlotte 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports and seasonal adjustment by RERI Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections. This data is reported one month before the Florida Department of Revenue s usual reporting month. As result, this data is current through August 2016. Chart 6 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. All five counties showed increases over August 2015. Total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the five Southwest Florida counties were $2.168 billion in August 2016, an 8-percent increase (or $167.2 million) over August 2015, albeit 1 percent lower than July 2016. Charts 7 and 8 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales rose by 6 percent, from $1.092 billion in August 2015 to $1.159 billion in August 2016. Collier County s taxable sales increased from $669.0 million in August 2015 to $724.6 million in August 2016, up 8 percent. Taxable sales in Charlotte County grew by over $40 million (19 percent) to $247.5 million in August 2016. Hendry County s taxable sales rose by 15 percent from $28.3 million in August 2015 to $32.6 million in August 2016. Taxable sales in Glades County rose 6 percent, increasing from $3.4 million in August 2015 to $3.6 million in August 2016. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 7
Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 6: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3.0 Taxable Sales 2011 to Present - 5 County Region 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 7: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,200 Coastal County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present 1,000 800 Lee 600 Collier 400 200 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 8
Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 8: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 40 Inland County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present 35 30 Hendry 25 20 15 All Data Seasonally Adjusted 10 5 Glades 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 9-13 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 2005 through October 2016. These numbers are seasonally adjusted by the RERI. The unemployment rate for the five-county region rose to 5.0 percent in October, an increase of 0.2 points over September 2016, but down 0.1 points from October 2015. The increase was primarily driven by a 4- percent increase in the number of unemployed (1,049), compared to a 1-percent increase in the number of employed. Lee County s unemployment rate increased to 4.7 percent in October 2016, up from 4.5 percent in September 2016, as depicted in Chart 9. Collier County s unemployment rate also rose, to 5.0 percent in October 2016, up from 4.8 percent in September 2016 (Chart 10). Unemployment in Charlotte County also increased to 5.4 percent in October 2016, compared to 5.3 percent in September 2016 (Chart 11). Similar patterns were evident in Hendry and Glades Counties. Hendry s October 2016 unemployment rate was 9.3 percent, 0.1 points higher than September 2016 (Chart 12). The unemployment rate in Glades County rose to 6.6 percent in October 2016, compared to 6.4 percent in September 2016 (Chart 13). The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the state of Florida was 4.8 percent in October 2016, up from 4.7 percent in September 2016, but down from 5.0 percent in October 2015. The seasonallyadjusted national unemployment rate inched up to 5.0 percent in September 2016 from 4.9 percent in August 2016, and was 0.1 points below the figure for September 2015. 9
Chart 9: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 10: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 10
Chart 11: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 12: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 11
Chart 13: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Single-Family Building Permits Single-family permit activity for October 2016 amounted to 583 in the three coastal counties, down from 617 in October 2015 and from 703 in September 2016. Lee County issued 285 permits, down from 332 in October 2015 and from 398 in September 2016. Charlotte County issued 82 building permits in October 2016, seven more than in October 2015, and one more than September 2016, as depicted in Chart 16. Collier County s total for October 2016 came to 216, an increase of 6 from October 2015, and 8 fewer than the prior month (Chart 15). Hendry County has issued 47 permits through October 2016, more than 3 times as many as the 15 issued through the first ten months of 2015. 12
2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Permits Issued 2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Permits Issued 1200 Chart 14: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1000 800 600 Permits Linear Trend 400 200 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs, and Fort Myers Beach permits. Data excludes Estero. Chart 15: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 300 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 250 200 150 100 50 Permits Linear Trend 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 13
2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Permits Issued Chart 16: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 250 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 200 150 100 Permits Linear Trend 50 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Sales of Existing Single Family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are summarized in Charts 17-19. The lines represent median prices plotted against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. Realtor sales of single family homes declined from October 2015 to October 2016 in all three counties, a decrease of 138 homes (8 percent) in total. Lee County s October 2016 sales of 947 units were down 80 units (8 percent) from October 2015, while the median price increased by $17,100 to $225,000 over the same period. Collier County single-family home sales dipped to 295 units in October 2016, compared to 310 in October 2015; the median price declined as well, from $385,000 to $375,000. Charlotte County recorded 350 single-family homes sold in October 2016, a decrease of 43 units (11 percent) from October 2015. However, Charlotte s median price increased by $32,200 to $205,000 over the same period. 14
Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 1600 $250 1400 1200 $200 1000 800 600 $150 $100 400 200 0 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $50 $0 Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 600 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $500 500 400 300 200 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 100 0 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $100 $50 $0 * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 15
Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 20 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The national ICS jumped 6.6 points from 87.2 in October 2016 to 93.8 in November 2016, up 2.5 points from November 2015. The November 23, 2016 issue of Survey of Consumers noted, [t]he initial reaction of consumers to Trump s victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy. The post-election boost in optimism was widespread, with gains recorded among all income and age subgroups and across all regions of the country. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index inched up to 90.2 in November 2016, an increase of 0.4 from October 2016 but a decrease of 0.9 from November 2015. Consumer sentiment in Florida remained stable throughout the presidential election process. Over the past year, consumer sentiment has fluctuated between a low of 88.1 and a high of 94.1, averaging 91.1 points, said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF s Bureau of Economic and Business Research in the November 23, 2016 issue of Florida Consumer Sentiment Index. 16
Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 100 Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend 95 90 85 80 75 70 FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 65 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Chart 21 shows year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through October 2016. Consumer price inflation continues at a moderate level, albeit somewhat higher than one year ago. The October 2016 national CPI rose 1.6 percent over the October 2015 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI increased 1.5 percent over the same period. Consumer price inflation continues to be somewhat higher in the Miami- Ft. Lauderdale area, with that index increasing 1.9 percent between October 2015 and October 2016. 17
Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisics The components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending October 2016 are shown in Chart 22. The largest increases since October 2015 are in transportation (3.9 percent) and housing (3.3 percent). The largest decreases for this period were in the apparel segment (down 4.5 percent) and Education & Communication (down 2.1 percent). 18
Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending October 2016 Transportation Housing Recreation Other goods and services * Medical care Food and beverages Education and communication Apparel * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 Month Percentage Change Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Unemployment The data presented in this appendix are not released on a monthly basis. The first two charts, Charts A1 and A2, show historic population growth through 2015, as well as projections updated annually by the state of Florida s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, working in conjunction with the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The second two charts, Charts A3 and A4, depict historic measures of U.S. GDP growth rates and unemployment as well as projections by the Federal Reserve s Federal Open Market Committee. These charts are updated quarterly. Regional Population From 1990 to 2015, regional population growth averaged 2.7 percent per year. The compound average annual rate of growth for 1990 to 2015 was 2.8 percent in Lee County, 3.3 percent in Collier County, 1.7 percent in Charlotte County, 2.1 percent in Glades County, and 1.6 percent in Hendry County. The righthand sections of Charts A1 and A2 show projected population increases from 2016 to 2040. All projected rates of increase are lower than the historic growth rates of 1990 to 2015. Growth for the five-county region averages 1.6 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 47 percent for the five-county region from 2015 to 2040. This would bring the total to 1,803,526, amounting to nearly 576,000 additional residents. Lee County s population is projected to grow an average of 1.9 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at 0.9 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of 0.3 percent per year and Glades County at 0.5 percent per year. 19
Population - Thousands Population - Thousands 1200 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 Historic and Projected Population Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 1000 Historic Projected 800 2015 666 2040 1,055 600 400 200 1990 335 1990 152 Lee Collier 2015 344 2040 483 2040 210 1990 2015 Charlotte 111 167 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research. 45 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 Historic and Projected Population Glades and Hendry Counties 40 35 30 Hendry 2015 38.1 2040 41.6 25 20 1990 25.8 Historic 2015 12.9 Projected 2040 14.6 15 10 1990 7.6 5 Glades 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research. 20
Percentage National GDP and Unemployment Charts A3 and A4 depict both historical trends and the Federal Open Market Committee s projections for national Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) and Unemployment. The FOMC s projections are released quarterly and reflect the assessments of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and of Federal Reserve District Bank presidents, with the most recent figures shown in the following charts. The dotted lines depict the highest and lowest projections or the range of all projections while the darker blue area within the dotted lines depict the central tendency forecast within those projections. The September forecast indicates a slight decline in projected GDP growth for the remainder of 2016, a slight increase in 2017, and the slight declines thereafter. While the range is fairly constant, the central tendency forecast falls below 2 percent growth for the remainder of 2016, rises slightly above in 2017, and then decreases thereafter. These numbers mark a decline from the slightly more optimistic projections announced at the June 2016 meeting. None of the projections achieve the 3 percent GDP measure that economists generally associate with an economy operating with a full employment of resources. Chart A3 shows the recovery in GDP growth following the most recent recession, and current projections close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP Growth, 2007 to Long Run 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.2 U.S. Growth of Real GDP 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.7 0.0-1.0-0.3 Range -2.0-3.0-4.0-2.8 Source: Historical data obtained from Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected data obtained from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, September 21, 2016. Chart A4 shows the decline in national unemployment following the most recent recession, as well as current projections close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). Consistent with the June forecast, the September forecast projects continued declines in unemployment through 2018, with an average central 21
Percentage tendency forecast of 4.6 percent for 2017 and 2018. The Fed s forecast projects rising unemployment in the long run, most likely due to recessionary concerns among some Fed officials. For 2016, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.5 to 4.9 percent with a central tendency range of 4.6 to 4.8 percent. For 2017, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.3 to 4.8 percent with a central tendency range of 4.5 to 4.7 percent. For 2018, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.3 to 5.0 percent with a central tendency range of 4.4 to 4.8 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 4.6 to 5.0 percent with a central tendency of 4.7 to 5.0 percent. The projected ranges fall between 4.2 and 5 percent into the near future, although with a rise in the central tendency forecast starting in 2019. Chart A4 depicts the recovery in unemployment following the 2008 recession to levels more closely associated with natural rates of unemployment. Compared to these national numbers, unemployment rates in Florida and Southwest Florida tends to be more volatile, falling lower when national unemployment is falling and rising higher when national unemployment is rising. Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment, 2007 to Long Run U.S. Unemployment Rate 11.0 10.0 9.9 9.5 Range Central Tendency 9.0 8.7 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.9 7.0 6.0 5.7 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.8 Source: Historical data obtained from Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected data obtained from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, September 21, 2016. The next quarterly release of projections for GDP and Unemployment will be released following the FOMC meeting scheduled in December. These projections will be updated in the January 2017 edition of Regional Economic Indicators. 22