Technical & Derivatives Report Sensex (37556) / Nifty (11361) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart The merry days continues for our market after undergoing some stressful period of nearly five months. Unlike previous week, the intra-week action was not as smooth as it was; but as we generally say all is well that ends well. Index managed to reclaim the 11350 mark with an authority; bringing the smile back on lot of retail investors. With a technical point of view, the rally began after breaking out from a Bullish Diamond pattern on weekly chart during the midjuly. Since then a series of bullish price developments have been observed. Some would say markets are overbought but we do not want to be in this bandwagon as of now. The structure is still strong and if we meticulously observe, some of the previous laggards have started to participate like, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and PSBs. In addition, we had opined about midcap index probably showing signs of forming a base. The anticipation has now turned into a confirmation and hence, we believe that there is still lot more to offer in days to come. Friday s strong rally is the perfect example why one should refrain shorting this market at this juncture, rather capitalize such declines to buy into. As far as levels are concerned, it s a matter of time, we are likely to hasten towards 11430-11500 and since it s an uncharted territory, further legs will keep unfolding as we move forward. For this week, 11290 followed by 11234 would be seen as immediate support. One notable observation to sum it up, during the week, lot of stocks from the cash segment started to show some life and is poised for decent moves. One can look to target such potential candidates which may offer better trading opportunities. Key Levels Support 1 11290 Resistance 1 11430 Support 2 11234 Resistance 2 11500 Nifty Bank Outlook - (27696) Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Post a corrective move of three trading sessions, the Nifty Bank index started Friday's session on a positive note. The index rallied higher as the day progressed and it recovered the intra week losses to register minor gains compared to its previous week's close. If we analyze the lower time frame charts, it is seen that the Nifty Bank index corrected up to its hourly 89 EMA and has resumed the positive momentum. As we had mentioned earlier, the broader trend for the index is up and hence the down moves are just corrective phases within an uptrend. Last week's low around 27330 will now be seen as a short-term support; whereas the index should continue the positive momentum in near term. On the higher side, the resistances are seen around 27875 followed by 28000. Key Levels Support 1 27440 Resistance 1 27875 Support 2 27330 Resistance 2 28000
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.11% Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 15.07% as market closed at 11360.80 levels. The Nifty August future closed with a premium of 34.95 points against a premium of 37.60 points in last trading session. The September series closed at a premium of 58.75 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 12.55 to 12.07. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.65 to 1.73. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are ADANIPOWER, SYNDIBANK, HCC, GMRINFRA and SOUTHBANK. Nifty Vs Views FIIs activity in cash market segment remained subdued. At the same time, they sold worth Rs. 481 crores in index futures with good amount of rise in open interest, indicating formation of short positions on Friday's session. In index options front, they were net sellers of Rs. 888 crores with marginal change in open interest. In call options, 11600 and 11700 strikes added decent positions; followed by unwinding in 11300-11500 call options. On the flip side, good amount of build-up was seen in 11000-11400 put options. Last week, we saw extension of the ongoing rally towards 11400 mark; but some profit booking was seen in the midst of the week on account of rise in repo rates. Strong recovery on Friday s session led to weekly closing with 0.79% gain. During the week, we witnessed good amount of long formations in Nifty; whereas, short covering took place in case of BankNifty. Stronger hands formed mixed positions in index futures along with decent longs in stock futures segment. On Friday, we saw massive writing in 11200 and 11300 put strikes followed by unwinding in 11400-11500 call options. Considering the above data points, we expect continuation of ongoing momentum towards 11450-11500 in the near term. Gainers TORNTPHARM 707000 34.03 1622.65 6.62 NIITTECH 1348500 24.34 1293.60 3.74 PVR 1265200 20.31 1177.20 6.67 NESTLEIND 290600 19.05 10324.60-4.22 ARVIND 6478000 17.48 419.70 1.73 GODREJIND 1749000 14.20 623.55-1.37 OFSS 87900 13.57 3971.20 2.34 BRITANNIA 1186600 11.50 6392.70-1.11 Losers BALKRISIND 1071200-12.60 1263.45 1.84 JUBLFOOD 3147500-10.72 1451.50 1.99 CHENNPETRO 1885500-9.70 313.20-1.88 MARICO 8665800-8.53 352.50 0.18 MGL 1012200-7.41 977.35 1.26 APOLLOHOSP 1245500-7.16 970.50 1.05 VGUARD 2274000-6.77 211.25 0.59 BEL 29259450-6.34 119.50 2.09 Historical Volatility HV TORNTPHARM 37.92 CUMMINSIND 40.61 IBULHSGFIN 47.33 AXISBANK 39.99 NESTLEIND 35.25 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.73 1.07 BANKNIFTY 1.34 1.04 TATAMOTORS 0.61 0.46 RELIANCE 1.02 0.68 ICICIBANK 1.16 0.51
FII Statistics for August 03, 2018 Turnover on August 03, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 2099.84 2580.67 (480.83) 291250 25361.72 7.90 44192.18 45080.18 (887.99) 627715 55493.57 (0.16) 10323.07 10342.59 (19.52) 1107604 82376.73 0.22 5048.77 5132.84 (84.06) 103503 7811.44 6.28 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 162937 15567.47-19.60 3528363 360354.72-53.99 802303 55101.28-12.54 562507 41135.05-17.24 Total 61663.87 63136.28 (1472.41) 2130072 171043.47 1.37 TOTAL 5056110 472158.52-48.42 Nifty Spot = 11360.80 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 11400 74.75 Sell 11500 40.90 33.85 66.15 11433.85 Buy 11400 130.15 Sell 11300 92.15 38.00 62.00 11362.00 Buy 11400 74.75 Sell 11600 20.60 54.15 145.85 11454.15 Buy 11400 130.15 Sell 11200 65.50 64.65 135.35 11335.35 Buy 11500 40.90 Sell 11600 20.60 20.30 79.70 11520.30 Buy 11300 92.15 Sell 11200 65.50 26.65 73.35 11273.35 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (August Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 395 397 400 403 406 ASIANPAINT 1,396 1,404 1,415 1,423 1,434 AXISBANK 534 554 566 587 599 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,664 2,677 2,689 2,702 2,713 BAJFINANCE 2,635 2,658 2,684 2,707 2,732 BAJAJFINSV 6,831 6,887 6,935 6,992 7,040 BPCL 392 396 401 405 410 BHARTIARTL 367 371 374 377 380 INFRATEL 287 288 290 292 294 CIPLA 634 638 643 646 651 COALINDIA 270 274 278 283 287 DRREDDY 2,207 2,244 2,267 2,304 2,327 EICHERMOT 26,674 26,835 27,047 27,208 27,420 GAIL 374 381 385 393 397 GRASIM 993 999 1,009 1,015 1,025 HCLTECH 951 957 964 970 976 HDFCBANK 2,095 2,108 2,128 2,141 2,161 HDFC 1,927 1,952 1,966 1,991 2,005 HEROMOTOCO 3,201 3,226 3,254 3,279 3,307 HINDALCO 201 207 210 215 218 HINDPETRO 286 289 292 295 297 HINDUNILVR 1,739 1,751 1,759 1,771 1,780 IBULHSGFIN 1,315 1,346 1,366 1,397 1,416 ICICIBANK 294 299 303 309 312 IOC 165 167 168 170 171 INDUSINDBK 1,985 2,000 2,019 2,035 2,054 INFY 1,352 1,358 1,362 1,368 1,372 ITC 295 300 303 307 310 KOTAKBANK 1,280 1,295 1,304 1,319 1,329 LT 1,276 1,283 1,290 1,297 1,305 LUPIN 849 868 882 900 914 M&M 909 915 920 926 931 MARUTI 9,109 9,148 9,189 9,228 9,269 NTPC 155 156 156 157 158 ONGC 163 165 168 170 173 POWERGRID 188 189 190 191 192 RELIANCE 1,163 1,170 1,177 1,184 1,191 SBIN 292 296 298 301 303 SUNPHARMA 581 583 586 589 592 TCS 1,947 1,963 1,973 1,989 1,998 TATAMOTORS 254 256 260 262 266 TATASTEEL 546 550 555 559 564 TECHM 644 653 664 674 684 TITAN 881 900 921 940 961 ULTRACEMCO 4,111 4,140 4,180 4,208 4,249 UPL 633 637 641 645 648 VEDANTA 211 217 220 226 229 WIPRO 275 277 279 280 282 YESBANK 360 367 370 377 380 ZEEL 514 517 522 525 529
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