Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing May 8, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Quantitative and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index is continuing to consolidate recent gains, but should break higher. U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index seems to be consolidating, but has the potential to break upward and test recent highs. Chart of the Week French equities rallied strongly as the expectations that a mainstream candidate would win the Presidential election rose. Crude Oil Crude oil continues to trade in a range and we ll have to wait and see how it acts at the next level of support. 10-Year Treasury Yield 10-year yields have stabilized, but the path of least resistance remains higher. Telecom Sector The Telecom sector has struggled on an absolute basis, and remains in a downtrend versus the S&P 500 from a relative standpoint. Gold Gold has rolled over, as we expected, and we ll see where it finds support on the way down. Utilities Sector The Utilities sector has bounced with the broader market and continues to outperform the broader S&P 500 on a relative basis. 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 12
For more information on Technical Analysis and the Technical Strategy Briefing, see the Ask the Institute Report: How Can Technical Analysis Bring Another Dimension to Investment Decisions? How do we conduct technical analysis? To summarize our approach: We use tools such as moving averages of varying length to determine what the current trend is (up, down, or sideways). Price oscillators such as relative strength can help indicate where markets may be within the trend (upper end, lower end, middle). Other factors like sentiment, flows, and seasonality can help us incorporate history and investors behavior to see what role they may play in the near future. We distill these factors into a short-term technical opinion (is the trend higher, lower, or sideways) and highlight which support and resistance levels we consider pivotal (likely to lead to further buying or selling) in the coming months. What Can a Technical Market Chart Tell Me? Technical analysis is the practice of using recent and historic price performance to anticipate future price moves, which may increase the odds of successful entries into and exits out of different markets. There is no assurance that these movements or trends can or will be duplicated in the future. 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 12
S&P 500 Index Short-term trend: Sideways The S&P 500 Index is at all-time highs, but price action seems to have run out of steam. That probably means we will have to spend some more time consolidating before another move higher. Psychologicallyimportant round numbers (2400, 2500) will probably be the most important barriers going forward. Support likely comes in first at the 50-day moving average (2366), next at the 2300 level, and last at the January high (2278). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX Index is the ticker for the S&P 500 Index on Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 2278 2300 2366 2399 2400 2500 CURRENT LEVEL 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 12
Chart of the Week: MSCI France Index Short-term trend: Higher The MSCI France Index rallied strongly following the first round of French elections, as investors become more confident in their expectations that a mainstream Presidential candidate would win. With the second round this past weekend, a negative surprise would have come as a shock. Resistance comes in first at the June 2014 high (175), next at the May 2008 high (211), and last at the pre-financial crisis high (222). Support will be met first at the 50-day moving average (154), next at the 200-day moving average (145), and last at the November 2016 low (136). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. MXFR Index is the ticker for the MSCI France Index on Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 136 145 154 168 175 211 222 CURRENT LEVEL 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 12
10-Year Treasury Yield Short-term trend: Sideways The 10-year yield seems to have found a near-term stopping point at 2.60 and has traded in a range since then. Resistance comes in first at the 50-day moving average (2.38), again at the highs seen in the Summer and Fall of 2014 (2.60 2.65), and last at the psychologically-important 3.00 mark. We believe support on the way back down will likely be found at the 200-day moving average (2.10), next at the 2.00 mark, and last at the point of the upside breakout (1.80). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. GT10 Govt is the ticker for the 10-year Treasury Yield on Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 1.80 2.00 2.10 2.36 2.38 2.65 3.00 CURRENT YIELD 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 5 of 12
U.S. Dollar Index Short-term trend: Sideways The U.S. Dollar Index continues to consolidate within a range. Support looks to come in first at the 200-day moving average (99.14), and again at the bottom of the old trading range (93). Resistance will be seen at the 50-day moving average (100.31), next at the recent highs (103.30), and again at the 2001 low (108). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. DXY Curncy is the ticker for the U.S. Dollar Index on Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 93 99.14 98.63 100.53 103.30 108 CURRENT LEVEL 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 6 of 12
Crude Oil Short-term trend: Sideways Crude oil continues to trade within a tight range. The first level of support comes in at the November 2016 low (43.30), next at the August 2016 low (39.51), and last at the February 2016 low (26.21). The 200-day moving average will be the first point of resistance (49.01), followed by the 50-day moving average (50.24) and the recent highs (54.45). For perspective, the longer-term trends in oil are mixed and suggest further range-bound trading over the coming years. Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. CL1 Comdty is the ticker for the generic continuous futures contract which displays the current active contracts for NYMEX crude oil on Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 26.21 39.51 43.30 46.16 49.01 50.24 54.45 CURRENT PRICE 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 7 of 12
Gold Short-term trend: Sideways Gold will probably trade sideways until the U.S. dollar starts climbing again. The first area of support will be the March low (1200), the second at the December low (1128), and last at the December 2015 low (1050). Resistance will likely come into play at the moving averages (1250), again at the recent high (1292), and last at the November 2016 high (1308). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. GC1 Comdty is the ticker for the generic continuous futures contracts which displays the current active contracts on COMEX for gold futures on Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 1050 1128 1200 1228 1250 1292 1308 CURRENT PRICE 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 8 of 12
S&P 500 Telecom Index Short-term trend: Sideways The S&P 500 Telecom sector has struggled despite the rally in global equities, and also remains in a relative downtrend versus the broader S&P 500 Index. We believe support will come in first at the November 2016 low (153), and again at the September 2015 low (140). Resistance starts at the 50-day moving average (167), comes in again at the 200-day moving average (169), and last at the recent high (173). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. S5TELS Index is the ticker for the S&P 500 Telecom Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 140 153 158 167 169 173 CURRENT PRICE 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 9 of 12
S&P 500 Utilities Index Short-term trend: Higher The S&P 500 Utilities sector is up with the broader market, but has struggled to outperform on a relative basis versus the broader S&P 500. We believe support comes in first at the 50-day moving average (260), next at the 200-day moving average (251), and last at the November 2016 low (233). Resistance will be found at the recent highs (269), and at round numbers (300, 325). Source: Bloomberg, 5/5/17. Copyright 2017 Bloomberg Finance L.P. S5UTIL Index is the ticker for the S&P 500 Utilities Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 233 251 260 262 269 300 325 CURRENT PRICE 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 10 of 12
Risk Factors All investing involves risks including the possible loss of principal. Equity securities are subject to market risk which means their value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions and the perception of individual issuers. Investments in equity securities are generally more volatile than other types of securities. An investment that is concentrated in a specific sector may be subject to a higher degree of market risk. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject an investment to greater share price volatility than an investment in traditional equity or debt securities. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies which may expose investors to additional risks. Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to market, interest rate, credit/default, liquidity, inflation and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond s price. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. This risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. If sold prior to maturity, fixed income securities are subject to market risk. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate. Investments in currencies involve certain risks, including credit risk, interest rate fluctuations, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, derivative investment risk and the effect of political and economic conditions. The use of currency transactions to seek to achieve gains in the portfolio could result in significant losses to the portfolio which exceeds the amount invested in the currency instruments. In addition, exchange rate risk between the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies may cause the value of the fund s investments to decline. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. Investments in gold and gold-related investments tend to be more volatile than investments in traditional equity or debt securities. Such investments increase their vulnerability to international economic, monetary and political developments. Target prices and forecasts are not guaranteed and are subject to change. Definitions The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that attempts to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It oscillates between 0 (very oversold) and 100 (very overbought). Support: Levels at which we anticipate buyers outnumbering sellers and prices stabilizing. Resistance: Levels at which we anticipate sellers outnumbering buyers and prices stalling. Short-term trend is a trend that has been in place over a period less than six months. Long-term trend is a trend that has been in place for multiple years. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. MSCI France Index a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of companies domiciled in France. Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index comprised of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities and represents 20 commodities weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market. S&P 500 Telecom Index comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS Telecom sector. S&P 500 Energy Equipment & Services Index comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS Energy Equipment & Services sector. S&P 500 Utilities Index comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS Utilities sector. 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 11 of 12
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to majority of its most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies. Disclaimers Global Investment Strategy ( GIS ) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. ( WFII ). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company. The information in this report was prepared by the GIS division of WFII. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. CAR-0517-01316 2017 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 12 of 12