US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators September 21, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. Conference Board 1 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. S&P 0 Index 2 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. FSMI 3 September 21, 2018 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators www.
ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. Conference Board Figure 1. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1992=, 4-wa) Aug Conference Board LEI (2016=) 30 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 30 60 40 Figure 2. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1992=, 4-wa) Conference Board CEI (2016=) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Aug 60 40 Page 1 / September 21, 2018 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators www.
155 145 135 125 115 105 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. S&P 0 Index Figure 3. S&P 0 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX S&P 0 Index ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Standard & Poor s and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 9/20 3000 20 2600 2400 2 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 600 400-0 400 Figure 4. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) 9/20 155 145 600 0 135 0 0 125 0 0 10 0 High-Yield Corporate Spread* (1992=) 115 2 1998 1999 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 105 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Page 2 / September 21, 2018 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators www.
220 1 Figure 5. ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators vs. FSMI YRI vs ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX YRI Weekly Leading Index* (1992=) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8/18 155 145 135 125 115 105 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). - 0 400 Figure 6. YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) 8/18 9/20 220 1 600 0 0 0 0 0 High Yield Corporate Spread* 10 0 2 YRI Weekly Leading Index** 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 60 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. Page 3 / September 21, 2018 / Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indicators www.
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