: Daily 18 November 2011 Oil fell, together with the equity market, yesterday, driven by ongoing concerns over the Eurozone crisis, defying positive US economic data. WTI and Brent declined by $3.77/bbl and $3.66/bbl respectively. The term structure of Brent softened significantly, in particularly at the very front end of the curve, as supply gradually improves. WTI structure also weakened as the rally in structure the day before was largely led by flat prices moves rather than underlying fundamentals. Along with rest of the commodities, precious metals have been hard hit by renewed concerns over the Eurozone, as evidenced by soaring borrowing costs in Spain. Investors are once again jittery about the region s prospects for solving the ongoing debt problems, as Spain moves closer to elections that many say will see a change in government. Surging borrowing costs in the Eurozone have once again unsettled markets and raised concerns over contagion effects spreading throughout the global banking system. Consequently, commodities have been shunned by investors as they avoid exposure to riskier assets. The dollar seems so be the preferred safe haven, with most commodities continuing to track euro/dollar movements. Even this morning, we ve seen industrials rebound slightly on the back of a weaker dollar. Amid the current Eurozone uncertainty, we feel that this correlation with euro/dollar movements will continue and the potential for upside will remain limited. Strategists Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com +44-20-31456821 Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com +44-20-31456822 James Zhang* Jinzhong.Zhang@standardbank.com +44-20-31456824 Marc Ground, CFA* Marc.Ground@standardbank.com +27-11-3787215 Commodity price data (17 November 2011) Base metals LME 3-month Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle Change in cash settle Cash - 3m Aluminium 2,150 2,094 2,152 2,080-56 -2.60% 2,085.00-13 -20.75 Copper 7,680 7,540 7,724 7,450-140 -1.82% 7,501.50-91 -22.25 Lead 2,030 2,014 2,030 1,980-16 -0.79% 1,975.00-7 -24.00 Nickel 17,950 18,150 18,100 17,725 200 1.11% 17,870.00 95 34.00 Tin 21,749 21,350 21,749 20,800-399 -1.83% 21,225.00-130 -23.00 Zinc 1,945 1,927 1,950 1,896-18 -0.93% 1,911.50 0-10.50 Energy Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ICE Brent 107.53 108.58 108.61 107.51 0.36 0.33% NYMEX WTI 98.61 98.82 98.91 98.01 0.00 0.00% ICE Gasoil 971.25 972.50 972.50 969.00-0.50-0.05% API2 Q4'11 116.45 116.30 - - -0.15-0.13% ICE EUA Dec 11 9.87 9.68 - - -0.19-1.93% Precious metals AM Fix PM Fix High bid Low offer Closing bid Change (d/d) EFP's Gold 1,756.00 1,742.50 1,767.00 1,711.00 1,719.00-24.00 0.5/0.9 Silver - 31.46 33.96 31.10 31.47-2.36-1.0/1.0 Platinum 1,618.00 1,607.00 1,622.00 1,583.00 1,582.00-48.00 1.5/3.5 Palladium 642.00 635.00 649.00 604.00 602.00-50.00 0.0/1.0 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; BBG Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Energy Oil fell, together with the equity market, yesterday, driven by ongoing concerns over the Eurozone crisis, defying positive US economic data. WTI and Brent declined by $3.77/bbl and $3.66/bbl respectively. Gasoline and distillate cracks improved as oil products as usual were relatively slow in responding to sharp moves in the market, resulting in stronger refining margins. The term structure of Brent softened significantly, in particularly at the very front end of the curve, as supply gradually improves. WTI structure also weakened as the rally in structure the day before was largely led by flat prices moves rather than underlying fundamentals. In Europe, the latest ARA total oil product inventories grew by 55kt w/w, with inventory changes in gasoline/naphtha/gasoil/ kero/fuel oil at +87/+49/+253/-211/-123kt w/w respectively. The sharp rise in gasoil stock was largely matched by the sharply fall in jet/kero inventories. Net result is that middle-distillate inventories were broadly unchanged. Meanwhile, ARA fuel oil inventories stayed at seasonal high, which is in sharp contrast with the strong fuel crack. That said, we do expect fuel oil crack to weaken. Total ARA product stocks stayed significantly below the seasonal levels of the previous two years. In Singapore, total oil product inventories dropped sharply by 1.6mb w/w, with changes in light-distillate/middle-distillate/ residues at -0.3/+1.3/+0.6 mb w/w respectively. The middle-distillate market in Singapore remains tight, and its inventories is now close to the seasonal low during the previous five years. We anticipate a tight middle-distillate market throughout this winter, and expect potential spikes in middle-distillate cracks. US housing Starts and jobs data came in better than expected but remained low. The Philly Fed survey disappointed but held inside positive territory. Despite plenty of signs that US economy continues to expand, the market is overwhelmed by the Eurozone crisis. The yield for Eurozone peripheral countries climbed further, and there has been little progress being reported regarding the European Financial Stability Fund, which do not help with market confidence. The softening structure in Brent could signal an easing physical oil market to some extent. However, low oil inventories globally is likely to keep oil in backwardation, albeit not as steep as it was a few weeks ago. We only look for substantial downside move in oil flat price when the term structure is firmly in contango. That said, the oil price is heavily exposed to the broad market sentiment, and consequently, risk of short-term sharp downside moves. As the Eurozone debt crisis intensifies, volatility in the oil market looks set to remain very high. We favour middle-distillates despite their very strong rally during the past month, but we take a bearish view on light and heavy products. That said, we now see limited further downside in gasoline cracks after their recent collapse. By James Zhang Precious metals Along with rest of the commodities, precious metals have been hard hit by renewed concerns over the Eurozone, as evidenced by soaring borrowing costs in Spain. Investors are once again jittery about the region s prospects for solving the ongoing debt problems, as Spain moves closer to elections that many say will see a change in government. Our main concern for commodities is the potential for liquidity squeeze in Eurozone money markets. To this end our barometer of Eurozone monetary tightness (the Euribor/OIS 3-month spread) has pushed significantly higher over the last few days. We caution that all commodities will suffer should money markets dry up, even gold and silver. Despite concerns over the Eurozone, investment demand seems lacklustre as investors seem to prefer the relative safety of the dollar. This is something we have seen happen often over the past few weeks, but eventually investor demand does again return, so we could see some strength on the Monday open (barring any major developments on the Eurozone front). Our Standard Bank Gold Physical Flow Index (GPFI) remains in negative territory, indicating the relatively weak physical demand. However, the same thing happened a few weeks ago and physical demand soon rebounded. We are confident that this will happen again as buyers in Asia (more from China, Thailand and Indonesia than India) return to the market at the current relatively low prices. According to previous seasonal patterns, Indian buying should return around January next year. Gold support is at $1,703 and $1,678. Resistance is $1,759 and $1,792. Silver support is at $30.70 and $29.41, resistance is at $33.64 and $35.28. Platinum support is at $1,570 and $1,548, resistance is at $1,621 and $1,649. Palladium support is at $590 and resistance at $640. By Marc Ground 2
Base metals Surging borrowing costs in the Eurozone have once again unsettled markets and raised concerns over contagion effects spreading throughout the global banking system. Consequently, commodities have been shunned by investors as they avoid exposure to riskier assets. The dollar seems so be the preferred safe haven, with most commodities continuing to track euro/ dollar movements. Even this morning, we ve seen industrials rebound slightly on the back of a weaker dollar. Amid the current Eurozone uncertainty, we feel that this correlation with euro/dollar movements will continue and the potential for upside will remain limited. From a data flow perspective US housing starts were the main focus yesterday. Although October s figure (628k) was higher than markets anticipated, it was still slightly below September revised figure of 630k and still in line with the trend of the past two years, i.e. flat and in absolute terms very low (at the height of the property boom in 2005 we would see over 2,000k homes started every month in the US). Construction and copper are closely linked. The copper market remains fundamentally tight and supply issues are providing support. But with the US demand for copper from especially housing much lower than 3 years ago, China s demand needs to be above average to see prices rise on a sustainable basis. We are not seeing that strong demand in the physical market as yet. Our Standard Bank Physical Copper Flow Index (available on SBHF<Go>) remains in negative territory and has declined further in recent days, signalling well below average demand for the metal. That said, we look closely at copper s farther dated spreads and believe there is value in borrowing the Dec-12/Dec-13 spread at current levels, particularly as copper s fundamentals start to impose themselves over the coming months (see our Daily dated 3 November 2011). In fact, we have opened a long Dec12/Dec13 copper spread position (see our Market Themes dated 4 November 2011). Today, the most significant data release will be the Conference Board s leading indicator for the US economy. Analyst s are expecting a relatively strong increase of 0.6% m/m in October, which would be in line with recent positive data flow out of the US. By Marc Ground 3
Base metals Daily LME Stock Movement (mt) Metal Today Yesterday In Out One day change YTD change (mt) Cancelled warrants (mt) Cancelled warrants (%) Contract turnover Aluminium 4,561,050 4,560,975 3,425 3,350 75 284,000 182,950 4.01 302,189 Copper 399,625 400,925 625 1,925-1,300 22,075 26,250 6.57 135,531 Lead 375,800 380,300 0 4,500-4,500 167,525 25,850 6.88 40,062 Nickel 83,220 83,598 0 378-378 -52,452 5,094 6.12 35,802 Tin 14,145 14,310 0 165-165 -2,130 2,335 16.51 8,839 Zinc 751,825 755,825 0 4,000-4,000 50,400 48,075 6.39 83,348 Shanghai 3-month forward prices Energy COMEX active month future prices Metal Open Last 1d Change Open Close Change Change (%) Aluminium 15,950 16,020-155 Ali Mar'12 - - - - Copper 54,580 55,400-990 Cu Mar'12 340 340.85 0.75 0.22% Zinc 14,750 14,970-230 ZAR metal prices Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ZAR/USD fix Cash 17,139 61,662 16,235 146,891 174,470 15,713 8.2200 3-month 17,441 62,801 16,775 151,171 177,824 16,050 8.3290 Energy futures pricing Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change 1 month 2 month 3 month 6 month 1 year Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) 129.02-1.11 127.27-2.57 126.49-2.29 - - - - Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) 972.50-0.50 963.50-0.75 956.25-1.50 941.25-3.75 941.00-12.00 NWE CIF jet ($/mt) 1,050.15-10.55 1,042.71-21.88 1,039.92-19.50 1,034.52-15.09 1,031.70-12.80 Singapore Kero ($/bbl) 128.45-1.17 128.87-2.47 128.69-2.29 127.63-1.96 127.03-1.65 3.5% Rdam barges ($/mt) 640.23-7.95 622.75-14.00 617.00-13.25 606.25-10.50 588.25-7.00 1% Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) 666.53-7.39 655.75-11.00 651.75-11.75 643.50-9.50 Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt) 700.86-5.03 660.75-18.00 652.25-15.50 639.75-11.50 Thermal coal Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Cal 12 Cal 13 API2 (CIF ARA) 116.30-0.15 115.35-0.40 116.10-0.40 117.30-0.50 123.20-0.60 API4 (FOB RBCT) 108.35-0.10 109.25-0.50 112.00-0.35 112.55-0.50 117.95-0.60 Precious metals Forwards (%) 1 month 2 months 3 months 6 months 12 months Gold 0.52633 0.59333 0.61250 0.65117 0.70833 Silver 0.49167 0.48667 0.47000 0.47000 0.45333 USD Libor 0.25478 0.36389 0.47944 0.68917 1.00756 Technical Indicators 30-day RSI 10-day MA 20-day MA 100-day MA 200-day MA Support Resistance Gold 50.31 1,766.79 1,746.61 1,708.75 1,592.57 1,703.00 1,760.00 Silver 42.77 33.85 33.89 36.81 37.00 30.70 33.64 Platinum 44.98 1,628.35 1,617.03 1,702.83 1,743.65 1,570.00 1,621.00 Palladium 42.30 648.63 649.98 708.71 737.60 590.00 640.00 Active Month Future COMEX GLD COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL NYMEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCOM GLD CBOT GLD Dec'11 Dec'11 Jan'12 Jan'12 Dec 11 Oct'12 Dec'11 Settlement 1,723.90 31.4400 608.10 1,581.10 1,726.00 4,258.00 1,720.60 Open Interest 468,305 108,846 18,772 38,792 8,007 140,075 1,864 Change in Open Interest -2,185-1,667-75 240 25 5,291-3 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg 4
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