TA Securities Holdings Bhd RESILIENCE CONFIDENCE OPPORTUNITY Slide 1
PERFORMANCE OF EQUITY MARKET Expectations of an imminent recovery in global economy and corporate earnings drove up the FBM KLCI index by 40% year-to-date to 1,230.09 as at October 08, 2009. Positive market sentiment lifted market capitalization by 38.4% to RM918.7bn as at August 31, 2009 compared to RM663.8bn in December 31, 2008. Slide 2
FBM KLCI Performance 1400 1200 1000 Index 800 600 400 200 0 31/12/08 14/01/09 28/01/09 11/02/09 25/02/09 11/03/09 25/03/09 08/04/09 22/04/09 06/05/09 20/05/09 03/06/09 17/06/09 01/07/09 15/07/09 29/07/09 12/08/09 26/08/09 09/09/09 23/09/09 07/10/09 Slide 3
KLCI vis-à-vis Other Indices 80% YTD KLCI's Relative Performance Against Regional Bourses 60% 40% 20% 0% KLCI Base JCI SZCOMP SET PCOMP SHCOMP FSSTI HSI KOSPI -20% NKY -40% 31-Dec-08 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 2-Feb-09 9-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 23-Feb-09 2-Mar-09 9-Mar-09 16-Mar-09 23-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 6-Apr-09 13-Apr-09 20-Apr-09 27-Apr-09 5-May-09 12-May-09 19-May-09 26-May-09 2-Jun-09 9-Jun-09 16-Jun-09 23-Jun-09 30-Jun-09 7-Jul-09 14-Jul-09 21-Jul-09 28-Jul-09 4-Aug-09 11-Aug-09 18-Aug-09 25-Aug-09 1-Sep-09 8-Sep-09 15-Sep-09 22-Sep-09 29-Sep-09 6-Oct-09 Indonesia Hong Kong Philippines Malaysia Singapore Japan Thailand Korea SHCOMP SZCOMP Slide 4
KLCI vis-à-vis Other Indices Index 08.10.09 Performance in % EPS Earnings Growth 2-Year PER 1 Mth YTD 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 EPS 2009 2010 CAGR DOW JONES - US 9,786.87 3.0% 11.5% -33.8% 619.8 753.4-25.3% 21.6% -4.7% 15.8 13.0 NASDAQ - US 2,123.93 3.1% 34.7% -40.5% 82.8 117.2-19.1% 41.5% 7.0% 25.6 18.1 S&P500 - US 1,065.48 3.9% 18.0% -38.5% 60.1 75.9-24.6% 26.3% -2.4% 17.7 14.0 FTSE - UK 5,154.64 4.2% 16.2% -31.3% 353.5 427.4-40.6% 20.9% -15.2% 14.6 12.1 GDAX - Germany 5,716.54 4.3% 18.8% -40.4% 346.7 468.6-23.8% 35.2% 1.5% 16.5 12.2 NIKKEI - Japan 9,832.47-5.4% 11.0% -42.1% 230.5 451.0-68.7% 95.6% -21.8% 42.7 21.8 HANG SENG - HK 21,492.90 2.0% 49.4% -48.3% 1246.0 1462.1-23.5% 17.3% -5.3% 17.3 14.7 KOSPI - Korea 1,615.46-0.3% 43.7% -40.7% 113.8 154.9-19.1% 36.1% 4.9% 14.2 10.4 TWSE - Taiwan 7,503.31 2.6% 63.4% -46.0% 300.4 438.8-52.4% 46.1% -16.6% 25.0 17.1 FSSTI - S'pore 2,650.95-0.4% 50.5% -49.2% 153.6 178.6-49.4% 16.3% -23.2% 17.3 14.8 SET - Thailand 744.03 7.6% 65.4% -47.6% 56.0 65.6-26.1% 17.2% -6.9% 13.3 11.3 JCI - Jakarta 2,484.52 4.8% 83.3% -50.6% 157.1 184.6-10.9% 17.5% 2.3% 15.8 13.5 SENSEX - India 16,806.70 4.2% 74.2% -52.4% 845.4 1037.5-16.0% 22.7% 1.5% 19.9 16.2 SHCOMP - Shanghai 2,779.43-5.2% 52.6% -65.4% 129.5 158.2 0.5% 22.1% 10.8% 21.5 17.6 SZCOMP - Shenzen 949.23-5.1% 71.6% -61.8% 33.2 44.2 3.1% 33.1% 17.1% 28.6 21.5 KLCI - M'sia 1,230.09 3.5% 40.3% -39.3% 63.9 77.1-28.9% 20.6% -7.4% 19.2 16.0 Slide 5
Market Participation by Investors Slide 6
Capital Market Performance 2007 2008 Remarks Index Trading Value ( Yearly Average) RM2,178.83mn RM1,180.70mn Investor confidence was affected by US housing & credit crisis. Number of Listed Companies 987 977 Contraction due to privatisation and de-listing. Yields of Bills: - 12-Month Treasury Bills 3.431% 3.353% - - 9-Month Bank Negara Bills 4.526% N/A - Net Purchases by Foreign Investors: - Stock Market RM3,837mn RM6,667mn - - Bond Market RM4,882mn RM6,225mn - Slide 7
List of Multiple Indices Index 2007 2008 FTSE KLCI 1445.03 876.75 Industrial 3014.43 2063.85 Technology 24.42 13.69 Construction 313.04 164.18 Consumer 343.89 282.03 Finance 10905.35 6791.71 Industrial Production 114.58 66.88 Plantation 8089.3 4142.8 Property 1035.66 515.61 Service 196.26 117.91 Mining 429.61 231.01 FBM70 9944.61 5442.06 FBM100 9502.36 5613.94 FBM Smallcap 12260.97 6552.82 FBM Emas 9810.83 5726.46 FBM Fledgling 8867.29 5420.98 FBM Emas Shariah 10533.13 5949.63 FBM 2nd Board 6732.35 4007.31 FBM ACE 6109.16 3333.59 FBM Hijrah Shariah 11660.06 6640.04 Slide 8
Activity level 6 new listings YTD, vs. 23 IPOs in 2008 Companies are delaying IPO to get better valuation, and to avoid under subscription 957 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia as at September 23 rd, 2009 compared to 977 in 2008 Slight contraction attributable to privatization and de-listing of companies that failed to meet regulatory standards The average daily trading value of RM1,144.15mn as at September 23 rd, 2009 was almost at par with last year s average of RM1,180.7mn. Volatility has reduced as the peak value almost halved to RM2,420.76mn in 2009 from RM4,355.54 in 2008 Slide 9
Total Market Capitalization (RM bn) RM bn 1200 1106 1000 849 919 800 600 400 375 553 444 465 482 640 722 695 664 200 0 Aug-09 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Slide 10
Total Listed Companies Slide 11
Daily Average Market Transaction Value (RM mn) Slide 12
Major Developments Efforts by Bursa to: 1) Improve accessibility 2) Introduce new products and services 3) Strengthen liquidity 4) Internationalize markets. Slide 13
The Steps Taken Are FTSE BM Palm Oil Plantation Index Series cements Bursa s position as a key centre for commodities-related capital market offerings. Structured warrants and ETFs allow more proprietary day traders and spur liquidity in the market. FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI easier to replicate index and enable investors to focus trade on 30 stocks (from 100) tie-up with the FTSE Group also offers the FBM KLCI instant recognition and credibility among investors Multicurrency Securities Framework add more depth to the Malaysian capital markets. Main and Ace markets provide companies with a clearly-defined platform raise capital, which will enhance efficiency, access and certainty in the fund-raising process CMDF Bursa Research Scheme (CBRS) enhance liquidity by generating interests in stocks Slide 14
Key Milestones for 2008/2009 Continue to establish a niche in Islamic capital market Key focus and initiatives in this area include: 1) issue of new licenses for foreign brokers, and 2) encourage the trading of Islamic securities. Strategic partnership with Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc (CME) Group. boost the Malaysian CPO visibility as it trades alongside other major edible oil contracts such as soy oil. Further develop the Malaysian commodities market via the creation of Bursa Commodity House. Enhance liquidity in the market by restructuring the minimum bids/spread size. Introduction of Multicurrency ETFs Slide 15
Market Direction Rally Has More Legs FBM KLCI hits a high of 1230 on October 08 th positive external news flows supports an imminent economic recovery story Nonetheless, average daily volume reduced drastically lower retail participation but participation of domestic institutions rose, picking up the slack from foreign investors as well. The benchmark index is trading at FY10 multiple of 16x, vs. regional markets 11x to 16x. Strong support at 1,150 to 1,200 levels corporate earnings are expected to grow by 22.3% in CY10 after contracting by 5.8% in CY09. Slide 16
FBM KLCI Valuation PER Method - FBM KLCI 2010 Target of 1,370 @ 17.8x PER - 12.4% premium to bottom up valuation of 1,219 and will be driven by liquidity 2009 2010 EPS (sen) 63.9 77.1 PER @ 1,213 19.0 15.7 PER @ 1370 21.4 17.8 22.0 20.0 x 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 16.6 16.8 15.8 14.9 14.1 13.39 16.1 12.2 10.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Historical PER of FBMKLCI Slide 17
FBMKLCI Valuation-Market Capitalization Method Market Cap (FBMKLCI) / GDP Ratio Scenario Analysis At 1,370 target market cap/ GDP ratio of 0.60x is not far away from 2000-2008 Average of 0.55x Market Cap/GDP Ratio (x) 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 KLCI (2009) 946 1051 1156 1261 1351 KLCI (2010) 1026 1140 1254 1368 1482 x 800 600 Market Cap to GDP Ratio 0.8 0.6 RMbn 400 200 0.4 0.2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Market cap GDP Market cap/gdp 0.0 Slide 18
Key Market Drivers & Risk Drivers Accommodative Monetary Policy and Fiscal Expansion. Resumption in exports growth. Ample liquidity in the system. Drastic liberalization measures and divestment of GLCs non-core businesses will drive foreign investments and corporate manoeuvres. Corporate earnings upgrade Risks Further delays in the implementation of 9MP. Prolonged Recession in Malaysia s key trading nations Slide 19
Thank You Slide 20