ITEM 3.1 (I) APP 1 STATE OF THE D2N2 ECONOMY REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND TRENDS

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Transcription:

ITEM 3.1 (I) APP 1 STATE OF THE D2N2 ECONOMY REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND TRENDS

SUMMARY In 2015 GVA increased 2.2% to more that 44bn Productivity gap with the national level widened slightly in 2015 to 14.6% 1,017,300 people are now in employment - an increase of 28,100 (16,700 employees and 11,400 self-employed) Increase in employment was driven by private sector full-time and part-time employees Business administration & support services, Manufacturing and Construction sectors accounted for most job gains while professional, scientific & technical services, public services, and Arts, entertainment & recreation services experienced losses The overall occupational and skills profile reflects concentration of employment in elementary occupations, skilled trades, and process, plant & machine operative roles Slightly slower expansion of dwelling stock compared to national figures

GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA) 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 19.8% GVA Growth in England and core city LEP areas, 2005-2015, (%) 18.0% 9.3% 4.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2010-2015 2015 Greater Birmingham and Solihull England Average D2N2 North Eastern West of England Greater Manchester Sheffield City Region Leeds City Region Liverpool City Region GVA, the value of the output created in an economy) rose to over 44.0bn in D2N2 in 2015. 5-year GVA Growth is second highest despite slower year-overyear growth. Over the past year, Information and communication has been the fastest growing (8.9%) sector while wholesale, retail and transport registered the largest absolute GVA gain ( 459 mil) The slow-down in overall growth was caused by the decline in real estate, public services and Agriculture as well as slower growth in Professional services and Construction.

Millions GVA BY SECTOR OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS Absolute and percentage change in GVA by sector, 2010-2015 (bubble size represents the share of GVA in 2015) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -7 Finance and insurance -420 Real estate 757 Public services 393 Wholesale, retail and transport 1,450 Construction 366 Arts, entertainment and other services 62 Manufacturing 2,331 Professional and business services 896 Mining, energy and water 465 Information and communication 440-36.0% -26.0% -16.0% -6.0% 4.0% 14.0% 24.0% 34.0% 44.0% 54.0% Over the past 5 years manufacturing sector continued to dominate D2N2 value generation, recording almost 35% of total GVA expansion over the period Manufacturing and Wholesale, retail and transport expanded the most in terms of absolute GVA gains Mining, energy and water, manufacturing, information and communication, and professional services showed the largest percentage change Financial and insurance services contracted over the last 5 year

PRODUCTIVITY In 2015 GVA per hour worked decreased 0.5, while that of most other core city LEPs increased. Several measures of productivity (GVA per hour and GVA per FTE) estimate D2N2 productivity gap to be around 15% of the national level. Manufacturing sector s productivity is on par with national level. Sectors with the biggest gap are Financial and insurance (34%), Professional and business services (32%), and Construction (23%) Research shows that policy interventions should target improvements in skills, investments (capital, infrastructure, R&D), management practices and international trade. D2N2, -0.5 Change in GVA per hour in England and core city LEP areas, 2015 ( ) -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 D2N2 Greater Birmingham and Solihull Sheffield City Region North Eastern Leeds City Region England Liverpool City Region 1.2

Retail, wholesale and motor trades Professional, scientific & technical Construction Business administration & support services Manufacturing Accommodation & food services Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services Information & communication Agriculture, forestry & fishing Health Transport & storage Property 2% Financial & insurance 2% 2% Education 2% 0% Mining, quarrying & utilities 0% 0% Public administration & defence 0% Business Base by sector, 2016 (%) England D2N2 8% 10% 5% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 9% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% BUSINESS BASE 12% 13% 14% 14% 16% 18% There are nearly 72,000 active businesses in D2N2, or 6% growth The growth in business base in 2015 was driven by Business administration & support (+1,840), Construction (+430), Professional, scientific & technical (+405) sectors, and Transport & storage (380). Business density remains below national average at 50 businesses per 1000 working age residents in D2N2 compared to 61 across England. The gap in business density grew over the past 5 years from 8 to 11 businesses per 1000. However, both the start-up rate and survival rates have risen slightly, which signals increasing competitiveness of the local economy. Around 3 in 5 businesses survive for 3 years, while 2 in 5 survive for 5 years.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INACTIVITY Population 2,161,365 Working age 1,359,600 Inactive 296,300 (21.8%) 26.4 24.5 24.3 13.8 9.8 1.1 long-term sick Inactivity by reason in D2N2, 2015 looking after family student retired other temporarily sick Economically active 1,063,300 Employed (As of December 2016) 1,017,300 +27,700 Increase from 2015 Unemployed 46,000 4.3% vs. 5.0% Nationally 95.7% Employment rate vs. 95% Nationally

JOBS JOB GAINS, 2015 In 2015 the number of employees in D2N2 has increased by 26,092 (2.9%), out of which 18,652 were full time and 7,440 part time. Private sector employment grew faster in D2N2 (3.8%) than nationally (3.0%) In contrast to the composition of the national workforce, which expanded its full-time workforce and decreased parttime component, D2N2 gained both part-time and full-time employees. However, private sector job gains were driven by an increase in full-time jobs in D2N2. Job gains have been concentrated in Business administration and support services, Manufacturing, Construction and Retail Job losses were driven by Professional, Scientific &technical, motor trades, Arts, entertainment and recreation and Public administration & defence Business administration & support -5,000-4,000 Manufacturing -3,000-3,000 Retail Construction 4,000 5,000 7,000 12,000 Full-time employees 1,000 3,000 1,000-6,000-4,000-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 0 1,000 1,500 1,000 1,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,00012,00014,000 Part-time employees JOB LOSSES, 2015 Professional, scientific & technical Motor trades Arts, entertainment, recreation & other Public administration & defence Full-time employees Part-time employees

OCCUPATIONS Occupations of the employment base, 2015 D2N2 England D2N2 occupational profile reflects concentration of employment in manufacturing with higher percentage of workers in Process, plant, and machine operatives, skilled trades and elementary occupations. A lower proportion of workers are employed in highly skilled associate professional, technical, professional and managerial occupations 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 8.3 10.9 20.4 18.7 14.0 14.6 11.2 10.5 10.2 10.2 9.5 9.0 6.9 7.4 7.8 6.4 12.6 10.6

SKILLS Skills profile of the working age population, 2016 NVQ4+ NVQ3 Trade Apprenticeships NVQ2 NVQ1 Other qualifications No qualifications In 2016 there has been a decrease in NVQ4+ and NVQ3 and no change in proportion of population with no qualifications. D2N2 32.0 19.6 3.8 17.9 12.4 6.2 8.1 D2N2 working age population remains below the national level for NVQ4+ England 37.9 17.4 3.0 16.0 11.3 6.7 7.8 The replacement demand qualifications profile suggests that employers may find it difficult to find qualified individuals to satisfy current and future replacement demand 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Replacement demand qualification needs, East Midlands (up to 2024) QCF 4-8 QCF 3 QCF 2 QCF 1 No Qual 35.8 21.6 22.1 15.0 5.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

HOUSING Ratio of median house price to median annual salary, 2007-2015 There were 6,550 dwellings built in 2016, bringing the dwelling stock to 956,060. Since 2011 the dwelling stock in D2N2 increased 2.6% compared to 3.3% nationally. The ratio of median house price to annual salary continues to rise and is slightly below the prerecession levels. 10 9 8 7 6 5 9.0 7.6 8.4 6.9 D2N2 7.9 6.3 8.5 6.7 England, excluding London 8.6 8.3 8.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 9.1 6.8 9.5 7.2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Direct Impact Exports and jobs BREXIT Sheffield University estimates that East Midlands goods exports to the EU amount to 1,866 per capita which is about 9% of the D2N2 GVA per capita HM treasury estimates that around 8.5% of the jobs in East Midlands are related to EU exports: 86,000 D2N2 jobs may be exposed to the direct impact of any tariffs levied on exports of goods EU Workforce in East Midlands: Around 5% of the East Midlands working age population are EU nationals, compared to 4% in other regions, excluding London (13%) Out of 116,000 employed EU nationals more than 90% are employed in the private sector 2/3 have middle to high skills

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