Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
16 Figure 1. COMMODITY PRICES: INDUSTRIAL vs CRUDE OIL 16 14 14 12 12 8 8 6 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 6 4 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) 4 2 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2 * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 14 13 Figure 2. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER* 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 4 3 * Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
55 5 Figure 3. BALTIC DRY INDEX (1/4/85=, daily) 55 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 5 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: The Baltic Exchange. 5 12 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Figure 4. BALTIC DRY INDEX (1/4/85=, daily) 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: The Baltic Exchange. 12 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Page 4 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 Figure 5. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE 5 65 6 4 55 5 3 45 4 35 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) 2 3 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 16 15 14 13 12 11 Figure 6. COMMODITY PRICES*: COPPER vs CRUDE OIL 5 4 9 8 3 7 6 5 4 3 Brent Crude Futures Price (dollars per barrel) Copper Futures Price (cents per pound) 2 2 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 Figure 7. US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION (million barrels per day, weekly, nsa) 11/3 1 8 8 6 Total (9.6) 6 4 4 2 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. 2 16 15 14 Figure 8. US STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS* (million barrels) Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week 11/3/17 217 (1257.) 216 (134.7) 215 (127.5) 214 (111.) 213 (187.4) 16 15 14 13 13 12 12 1 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 * Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. Page 6 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
.22 Figure 9. S&P 5 MATERIALS & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 7.2 65 6.18 55 5.16 45.14 S&P 5 Materials Index (as a ratio of S&P 5 Index) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) 4 35.12 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Standard & Poor s and Commodity Research Bureau..6 Figure 1. S&P 5 ENERGY & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 175.5 15 125.4.3 S&P 5 Energy Index (as a ratio of S&P 5 Index) 75.2 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) 5.1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 25 * Nearby futures price. Source: Standard & Poor s and Financial Times. Page 7 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
13 12 Figure 11. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (25=, swda, ratio scale) Aug 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 6 * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 15 Figure 12. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (yearly percent change) 15 1 World (3.8) 1 5 Aug 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. -15 Page 8 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
16 15 14 13 Figure 13. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (25=, swda,* ratio scale) Aug 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 Advanced Economies 6 5 Emerging Economies 5 4 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 4 * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 2 Figure 14. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (yearly percent change) 2 1 1 Aug -1-2 World Production Advanced Economies (3.2) Emerging Economies (4.3) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. -1-2 Page 9 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 Figure 15. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 7 6 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (local currencies) 6 5 5 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 4 4 3 2 3 2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. 85 9 Figure 16. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 7 6 95 5 15 4 11 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) 3 115 12 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 11/13 2 125 13 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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