ACTION Buy Return Potential: 23% Equity Research Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy Source of opportunity According to Phoenix Tech (March 11), Coolpad and JD.com, the largest e-tailer in China, have entered into a strategic cooperation agreement, which includes JD.com placing a RMB10 bn purchase order with Coolpad. Also, Coolpad launched the Unicom-version Great God F1 for which JD.Com is the exclusive e-tailer. The agreement formalises the two companies existing relationship, and we believe creates upside risk to our e-tailer estimates. Coolpad expects 2014 e-tailer sales to reach RMB12 bn with group revenues at RMB 30-40 bn (subject to 17% sales tax and trivial expenses for reporting financials) vs. GSe HK$5.7 bn and HK$36.6 bn, respectively. We reiterate CL-Buy. Investment Profile Low Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th Asia Pacific Technology Peer Group Average High Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. Catalyst 1) More news flow and data points on 4G smartphone adoption: We view Coolpad as a leader among its local competition in driving 4G product rollouts at attractive price points. Positive news or data points on China 4G smartphone traction could serve as a strong catalyst for shares; 2) Greater visibility on the company s strategy at its 2013 result conference: Coolpad is scheduled to host an analyst meeting on 2013 results on Mar 21. We expect management to reveal more details on Coolpad s progress/strategy to reach its 2014 shipment guidance (60 mn vs. GSe 56 mn). This may reduce some market concern on how Coolpad will achieve such an aggressive target, as we do not think the market is priced in such guidance yet; and 3) ecommerce sales figures update: We see ecommerce, a new business model started this year, as one of Coolpad s most important growth drivers. Further pre-order or shipment figures updates on its ecommerce channel could enhance investors confidence in its earnings growth driven by this area. Valuation Our unchanged HK$6.1 12-m TP is based on 3.4X 2H14-1H15E P/B (derived from historical P/B-ROE metrics) and implies 11.4X 2H14-1H15E P/E. Key risks Price erosion, slower China handset end demand and 4G progress. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Asia Pacific Buy List Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List Coverage View: Neutral Robert Yen Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies +886(2)2730-4196 rob.yen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch Iris Wu +886(2)2730-4186 iris.wu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch Ricky Lee +886(2)2730-4195 ricky.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Key data Current Price (HK$) 4.95 12 month price target (HK$) 6.10 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 10,118.6 / 1,303.7 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E EPS (HK$) 0.15 0.11 0.43 0.55 EPS growth (%) 26.6 (30.6) 302.6 27.7 EPS (diluted) (HK$) 0.15 0.11 0.42 0.54 EPS (basic pre-ex) (HK$) 0.15 0.11 0.43 0.55 P/E (X) 10.2 46.4 11.5 9.0 P/B (X) 1.4 4.0 3.1 2.4 EV/EBITDA (X) 9.4 24.4 9.8 7.6 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 0.4 1.7 2.2 ROE (%) 14.2 9.0 30.5 30.4 CROCI (%) 47.8 37.8 41.3 36.0 Price performance chart 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Hang Seng China Ent. Index (R) 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. 9,500 9,000 8,500 Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 92.6 60.7 120.0 Rel. to Hang Seng China Ent. Index 124.0 79.6 164.3 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 3/11/2014 close. Global Investment Research
Coolpad Group Ltd: Summary Financials Profit model (HK$ mn) 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance sheet (HK$ mn) 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Total revenue 14,358.8 20,529.2 36,629.9 46,677.0 Cash & equivalents 1,983.1 2,109.0 2,802.6 2,863.5 Cost of goods sold (12,639.1) (17,897.0) (31,954.2) (40,941.1) Accounts receivable 2,416.2 2,993.5 5,466.3 4,944.0 SG&A (883.6) (1,093.6) (1,825.2) (2,304.3) Inventory 1,811.2 1,823.2 3,422.2 3,401.8 R&D (659.8) (1,332.6) (2,000.5) (2,319.7) Other current assets 648.4 805.7 805.7 805.7 Other operating profit/(expense) 180.4 165.2 260.4 295.6 Total current assets 6,859.0 7,731.4 12,496.8 12,015.0 ESO expense -- -- -- -- Net PP&E 537.0 403.7 453.4 502.4 EBITDA 426.8 440.2 1,168.5 1,469.6 Net intangibles 160.9 160.9 160.9 160.9 Depreciation & amortization (69.9) (69.0) (58.1) (62.1) Total investments 83.7 77.5 77.5 77.5 EBIT 356.9 371.2 1,110.4 1,407.5 Other long-term assets 462.8 490.7 519.0 548.7 Interest income 61.6 53.4 56.0 84.7 Total assets 8,103.4 8,864.1 13,707.5 13,304.4 Interest expense (55.2) (29.8) (35.8) (52.9) Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. (6.1) (0.5) 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 1,742.3 2,319.1 5,079.2 3,971.3 Others 61.1 (117.4) 109.3 121.0 Short-term debt 2,616.4 2,428.1 3,784.6 3,561.0 Pretax profits 418.2 276.9 1,239.9 1,560.4 Other current liabilities 1,233.1 1,427.6 1,427.6 1,427.6 Income tax (93.9) (52.0) (333.7) (402.8) Total current liabilities 5,591.8 6,174.8 10,291.4 8,959.8 Minorities 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Long-term debt 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income pre-preferred dividends 325.6 225.1 906.3 1,157.7 Other long-term liabilities 75.0 74.5 74.5 74.5 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 98.6 74.5 74.5 74.5 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 325.6 225.1 906.3 1,157.7 Total liabilities 5,690.4 6,249.3 10,365.8 9,034.2 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 325.6 225.1 906.3 1,157.7 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 2,409.7 2,611.7 3,338.7 4,267.4 EPS (basic, pre-except) (HK$) 0.15 0.11 0.43 0.55 Minority interest 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 EPS (basic, post-except) (HK$) 0.15 0.11 0.43 0.55 EPS (diluted, post-except) (HK$) 0.15 0.11 0.42 0.54 Total liabilities & equity 8,103.4 8,864.1 13,707.5 13,304.4 EPS excl. ESO expense (basic) (HK$) -- -- -- -- EPS excl. ESO expense (dil.) (HK$) -- -- -- -- BVPS (HK$) 1.14 1.24 1.58 2.02 DPS (HK$) 0.03 0.02 0.09 0.11 Dividend payout ratio (%) 19.3 19.8 19.8 19.8 Free cash flow yield (%) 25.6 6.5 (4.1) 5.4 Ratios 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Growth & margins (%) 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E CROCI (%) 47.8 37.8 41.3 36.0 Sales growth 95.6 43.0 78.4 27.4 ROE (%) 14.2 9.0 30.5 30.4 EBITDA growth 60.5 3.1 165.4 25.8 ROA (%) 4.2 2.7 8.0 8.6 EBIT growth 85.8 4.0 199.1 26.8 ROACE (%) 10.7 6.9 24.6 24.4 Net income growth 20.0 (30.9) 302.6 27.7 Inventory days 50.2 37.1 30.0 30.4 EPS growth 26.6 (30.6) 302.6 27.7 Receivables days 59.4 48.1 42.1 40.7 Gross margin 12.0 12.8 12.8 12.3 Payable days 45.0 41.4 42.3 40.3 EBITDA margin 3.0 2.1 3.2 3.1 Net debt/equity (%) 27.3 12.2 29.4 16.3 EBIT margin 2.5 1.8 3.0 3.0 Interest cover - EBIT (X) NM NM NM NM Cash flow statement (HK$ mn) 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Valuation 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Net income pre-preferred dividends 325.6 225.1 906.3 1,157.7 D&A add-back 69.9 69.0 58.1 62.1 P/E (analyst) (X) 10.2 46.4 11.5 9.0 Minorities interests add-back (1.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) P/B (X) 1.4 4.0 3.1 2.4 Net (inc)/dec working capital (389.3) 91.0 (1,266.4) (533.6) EV/EBITDA (X) 9.4 24.4 9.8 7.6 Other operating cash flow 905.6 318.2 (45.3) (31.6) EV/GCI (X) 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 Cash flow from operations 910.6 703.1 (347.5) 654.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 0.4 1.7 2.2 Capital expenditures (55.1) (22.1) (83.8) (87.0) Acquisitions (121.6) (46.2) (52.3) (53.8) Divestitures 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others (7.8) (74.1) 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (180.4) (142.5) (136.1) (140.8) Dividends paid (common & pref) (62.8) (44.5) (179.3) (229.1) Inc/(dec) in debt (233.5) (211.9) 1,356.5 (223.7) Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows (589.5) (178.3) 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from financing (885.9) (434.7) 1,177.2 (452.7) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Total cash flow (155.7) 125.9 693.6 61.0 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Robert Yen rob.yen@gs.com Iris Wu iris.wu@gs.com Ricky Lee ricky.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2
Exhibit 1: We expect Coolpad to grow both its smart phone shipments and market share in the next 3 years Exhibit 2: We expect product ASP to recover from 2013 s trough thanks to rising contribution from 4G models K units 50,000 45,000 40,000 Coolpad (2369.HK): smartphone shipment by channel E-Commerce channel Overseas shipment China Unicom China Telecom China Mobile China smartphone market share 15% 14% 13% US$ 120 100 Coolpad (2369.HK): handset ASP and ASP yoy Coolpad handset ASP ASP yoy 15% 10% 5% 35,000 12% 80 0% 30,000 11% -5% 25,000 10% 60-10% 20,000 15,000 9% 8% 40-15% -20% 10,000 7% 20-25% 5,000 6% -30% 0 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E 1H16E 2H16E 5% - 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E -35% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Exhibit 3: Coolpad is trading at 3.0X 12-m fwd P/B; we expect its growing ROE to drive further share upside Exhibit 4: Coolpad s P/E looks undemanding at 11.0X, below its historical average of 12.3X P/B (X) 6.0 Coolpad (2369.HK) P/B vs. ROE Fwd P/B (L) Median P/B (L) ROE (R) Median ROE (R) 50% P/E (X) 50.0 Coolpad (2369.HK) 12-m forward P/E Fwd P/E "Avg P/E" "+2 Std Dev" "-2 Std Dev" 5.0 40% 40.0 4.0 Median: 19% 30% 20% 30.0 +2 Std Dev: 29.1X 3.0 Current: 3.0X 10% 20.0 2.0 Median: 1.9X 0% 10.0 Avg: 12.3X Current: 11.0X 1.0 0.0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14-10% -20% 0.0 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14-2 Std Dev: -4.5X -10.0 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Datastream. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Datastream.. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3
Exhibit 5: Coolpad semi-annual and annual earnings model (HK$ mn; consolidated) 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013E 1H2014E 2H2014E 1H2015E 2H2015E 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Summary Income Statement 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013E 1H2014E 2H2014E 1H2015E 2H2015E 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Net sales 6,218 8,141 9,632 10,897 14,269 22,361 20,426 26,251 14,359 20,529 36,630 46,677 52,420 Cost of goods sold (COGS) (5,474) (7,165) (8,378) (9,519) (12,409) (19,545) (17,908) (23,033) (12,639) (17,897) (31,954) (40,941) (46,173) Gross profits 744 976 1,254 1,378 1,860 2,816 2,518 3,218 1,720 2,632 4,676 5,736 6,247 Operating expenses (567) (796) (1,023) (1,238) (1,545) (2,020) (1,914) (2,415) (1,363) (2,261) (3,565) (4,328) (4,794) SG&A (261) (622) (487) (606) (762) (1,063) (981) (1,323) (884) (1,094) (1,825) (2,304) (2,580) R&D (365) (295) (600) (733) (864) (1,137) (1,038) (1,281) (660) (1,333) (2,000) (2,320) (2,512) Other operating incomes 59 122 64 101 81 180 106 190 180 165 260 296 298 Operating profits 177 180 231 140 315 796 604 803 357 371 1,110 1,408 1,453 Non-operating income/(loss) 2 60 28 (123) 34 96 46 107 61 (94) 129 153 177 Earnings before tax (EBT) 178 240 260 17 349 891 650 910 418 277 1,240 1,560 1,630 Income tax credit/(expense) (26) (68) (47) (5) (64) (270) (122) (281) (94) (52) (334) (403) (452) Extraordinary gain/(loss) - - - - - - - - - - - - - Minority interest 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Earnings after tax (EAT) 153 173 213 12 285 622 528 629 326 225 906 1,158 1,178 EPS (HK$) 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.01 0.13 0.29 0.25 0.30 0.15 0.11 0.43 0.55 0.56 EPS (fully diluted, HK$) 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.01 0.13 0.29 0.25 0.29 0.15 0.11 0.42 0.54 0.55 Ratio analysis and assumptions As % of sales Gross margin 12.0% 12.0% 13.0% 12.6% 13.0% 12.6% 12.3% 12.3% 12.0% 12.8% 12.8% 12.3% 11.9% Operating expense ratio -9.1% -9.8% -10.6% -11.4% -10.8% -9.0% -9.4% -9.2% -9.5% -11.0% -9.7% -9.3% -9.1% Operating margin 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 2.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% Pre-tax margin 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 0.2% 2.4% 4.0% 3.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% Tax rate (as % of EBT) 14.6% 28.2% 18.0% 29.6% 18.4% 30.2% 18.8% 30.8% 22.4% 18.8% 26.9% 25.8% 27.7% Net margin 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% 0.1% 2.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% HoH growth (%) Sales 44.2% 30.9% 18.3% 13.1% 30.9% 56.7% -8.7% 28.5% Gross profits 29.7% 31.2% 28.5% 9.9% 34.9% 51.4% -10.6% 27.8% Operating profits 110.6% 2.0% 28.3% -39.5% 124.8% 152.8% -24.0% 32.9% Non-operating profits -98.6% 3868.3% -52.6% NM NM 181.7% -52.0% 133.2% Pre-tax profits -8.3% 34.7% 8.2% -93.3% 1914.2% 155.6% -27.0% 40.0% Net profits 0.1% 13.5% 23.0% -94.2% 2223.4% 118.5% -15.0% 19.2% EPS 4.1% 15.2% 23.4% -94.2% 2223.4% 118.5% -15.0% 19.2% Yoy growth (%) Sales 105.4% 88.7% 54.9% 33.9% 48.1% 105.2% 43.2% 17.4% 95.6% 43.0% 78.4% 27.4% 12.3% Gross profits 46.5% 70.1% 68.5% 41.3% 48.3% 104.3% 35.4% 14.3% 59.0% 53.1% 77.6% 22.7% 8.9% Operating profits 63.2% 114.8% 30.9% -22.3% 36.1% 468.4% 92.1% 0.9% 85.8% 4.0% 199.1% 26.8% 3.2% Non-operating profits -93.1% -45.9% 1781.5% NM 19.6% NM 35.3% 12.0% -53.6% NM NM 18.1% 15.6% Pre-tax profits 37.1% 23.5% 45.7% -92.8% 34.3% 5049.2% 86.5% 2.1% 28.9% -33.8% 347.7% 25.9% 4.4% Net profits 28.2% 13.6% 39.6% -92.9% 33.7% 4977.2% 85.7% 1.2% 20.0% -30.9% 302.6% 27.7% 1.8% EPS 33.3% 19.9% 42.1% -92.9% 33.7% 4977.2% 85.7% 1.2% 26.6% -30.6% 302.6% 27.7% 1.8% Dividend policies Cash dividends (HK$ per share) 0.03 0.02 0.09 0.11 0.11 Payout ratio (%) 19.3% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4
Disclosure Appendix Reg AC I, Robert Yen, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Robert Yen: Asia Pacific Technology. Iris Wu: Asia Pacific Technology. Asia Pacific Technology: AAC Technologies, ASUSTeK Computer, Acer, Career Technology, Compal Electronics, Coolpad Group Ltd, Delta Electronics, E Ink Holdings Inc, Flexium Interconnect, HTC Corp., Kinsus Interconnect Technology, Largan Precision, Lenovo Group, Lite-On Technology, Merry Electronics, Quanta Computer, Synnex Technology International, Unimicron Technology, Wistron, Zhen Ding Technology Holding. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Coolpad Group Ltd (HK$4.95) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 32% 54% 14% 53% 45% 36% As of January 1, 2014, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,637 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Stock Price Currency : Hong Kong Dollar Stock Price 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 14,000 3.7 5 4 3.3 13,000 1 2.8 4.5 4.2 3.1 1.2 2.5 12,000 3.9 2 11,000 10,000 3.5 2.3 9,000 1.9 8,000 Feb 24 May Aug 22 N N B F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2011 2012 2013 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 12/31/2013. Rating Jan 1, 2011 B Covered by Robert Yen Mar 27, 2012 to S from N Price target Nov 14, 2013 to N from B Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst Hang Seng China Ent. Index The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Index Price Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5
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Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. 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