INDIA S MANUFACTURING EXPORTS: ISSUES & CHALLENGES Mohd.Saif Alam Ph.D, Assistant Professor, Saraswati Institute of Technology & Management, Unnao (U.P) India. Abstract With the liberalisation globalisation of the Indian economy, India s share in the world export has increased, at present India enjoys 14 ranks (as per WTO-world trade report 2013) which was 31 in 2000. The export value of 293 ($billion) 2% share in total world exports has improved from 42.3($billion) 0.7% share in world exports in 2000. There has been a shift in the India s export basket. The share of manufacturing sector has been dominating the export basket of India but in recent time it has shown a decline. Share of manufacturing sector which was once 80% in 2000 has shown a declining trend now reached the all-time low of 61% for the year 2012. So far the sectoral contribution is considered all the sectors under manufacturing exports have shown declining trend except engineering goods whose share has increased from 28% in 2005 has reached 35% in 2012. The paper deals with the time series analysis of the share of manufacturing sector in total exports, secondly sectoral composition of manufacturing exports finally the factors that have resulted in the decline of the share of manufacturing sector in total exports the steps needed to boost it.this paper is based on the secondary data, the source that have been consulted are the annual report from the RBI, world trade report by WTO, for sectoral export data ministry of commerce website is consulted. The period of study is 1997-2012. Keywords: Globalisation, Manufacturing Sector, Exports, Composition. Introduction India s appeal as a global manufacturing destination is not yet solidified. The country dropped two spots in current 2013 GMCI rankings, falling from second to fourth since 2010. However, the decline may be short-lived as executives felt the country would regain its former position once again become the world s second most competitive manufacturing nation in the next five years, behind China. GMCI- 2013, Deloitte. The above statement shows that India s competitiveness in the global market with respect to the trade in manufactured good s had deteriorated. Objectives Following are the objectives of this paper in the light of the Indian manufactured good exports: 1. Time series analysis of the share of Indian manufacturing sector in total exports. 2. Sectoral composition of manufacturing exports. 3. Factors resulting in the decline of the share of manufacturing sector in total exports the steps needed to boost it. Methodology This paper is based on the secondary data, the source that have been consulted are the annual report from the RBI, world trade report by WTO, World Integrated trade Solution website, for sectoral export data ministry of commerce website is consulted. The period of study is 1997-2012. Analysis Exports & Product Share Table 1.1(a) shows the increase in the exports category wise increase in export in dollar terms. Column five of the table shows that with just 33469.7 U.S $ million in 1996-97 total exports have grown by ten times over the period of study reached 304623.5 U. $ million by the end of 2012. Exports crossed the one lakhs marks in the year 2005-06 the amount reached 103090.50 U.S $ million. With respect to the different category of product exported, they are classified under primary products, manufactured goods, petroleum products others. Export International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page146
of primary products have increased by almost five time from 8035.10 U.S $ million to 45574.00 U.S $ million for the same period, whereas manufactured goods export increased by eight times from 24613.40 U.S $ million, petroleum products export increased by one twenty time from 481.80 to 55603.50 export of other commodities increased by fifty times from 339.40 to 16661.70. Table1.1(b) shows the change in the share of the different category in the total export for the period 1997-2012. From the table it is clear that manufactured goods have always dominated the export basket of India at the end of 1997 share stood at 73.54% of the total exports followed by primary products. Over the period of time the share of manufactured goods have lost there importance by the end of 2012 the share came down to 61.32%. In the 16 year duration the it first increased for three years following 1997 then onwards it start to fall, for the year 1999-2000 the share was maximum as it reached all time high of 80.70 %. The export of primary product also show the same trend it had been falling since 1997. For the first three years following 1997 it fall then onwards it had been around 14%-15%. The other two category i.e. petroleum other have shown a considerable improvement with the share of these two category is increasing the share of petroleum produsct have reached all time high of 18.25% for the year 2012. Table 1.1(b) also shows the annual growth rate in the total exports different category of the export from India to the world. Annual growth rate of the total exports had been positive for all the years except for three years. Export growth rate did not follow any trend for some times there is increasing trend whereas for some years it follows the diminishing trend. On the basis of the maximum growth annual growth for individual category it can be seen that for primary products it is 39.96 for 2007-08, for manufactured products it is 37.17 for the year 2010-11, for petroleum products its 4706.43% for 2000-01 for others its 130% for 2007-08. If the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is considered then for the period of study the total exports have grown at the rate of 16%. In category wise CAGR petroleum products have the maximum growth of 37% followed by others. With respect to primary manufactured products the growth rate has been 12% 14% respectively. Manufactured Exports & Share of Different Table 1.2(a) of the table shows the increase in the manufactured exports its sub-category in U.S $ terms. Manufactured exports have increased form just 24613.40 U.S $ million in 1997 to 186784.20 U.S $ million in 2012, almost by eight times. Different product category of manufactured product exports comprises of leather manufactures, chemicals related products, engineering goods, textiles textile products, gems jewellery, hicrafts (excluding hmade carpets) othe manufactured goods. In total there are six categories of products that form part of manufactured goods export excluding other manufactured goods. Performance of all the categories had been very impressive except for hicraft which had increased by just.49 times. In money terms maximum increase has been in case of engineering goods which shows that it increased by 13.52 times followed by gems jewellery (9.63) chemicals related products (9.50). Table 1.2(b) shows the share of different category in total manufactured goods. A close look at table revels that the share of three products- chemicals related products, engineering goods gems jewellery have shown increased in there share in total exports whereas the share of other category have decreased. In 1997 the major share was held by textiles textile products(35.09) followed by engineering goods (20.16) gems jewellery(19.31). In the period of sixteen years the share of engineering goods have show a considerable increased by the end of 2012 it reached to 35.92 followed by gems jewellery (25.11) chemicals related products(19.91). The products that have shown no improvement/decreased share are other goods hicrafts followed by other goods leather manufactures. International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page147
Table 1.2(c) shows the annual growth rate in the export of different category of manufactured goods. The growth rate does not show any trend had a mix of upward downward trend. The overall performance of manufactured goods shows that it had grown positively except for years-1999(-2.84), 2002(-2.81) 2010 ( - 6.47). the maximum growth is for the year 2010-11 (37.17) followed by 2004-05 (25.24) 2007-08 (21.27). Category wise annual growth rate shows that maximum growth has been registered by engineering goods for the year 2010-11(51.91) followed by gems jewellery for the year 2008-09(42.06). In terms of the negative growth rate it has been found that product that have shown maximum negative growth are hicraft (-40.77) for the year 2008-09 followed by 2003-04(36.37) 2009-10 (25.32). On the basis of compound annual growth rate the overall CAGR for the manufactured goods is 14% for the period under study. On individual basis the CAGR had been very impressive for engineering goods (19%) followed by chemicals related products (16%) gems jewellery(16%). Product such as hicraft had the negative CAGR of -5%. It can be seen that engineering goods, chemicals related products, gems jewellery others have CAGR above the CAGR of manufactured goods. Test of Correlation Export of Principal Commodities total Exports Table 1.3(a) shows the result of the test of correlation that has been performed in order to find out the correlation between the growth in principal export total export for the period of 15 years form 1997-2012. Vale of the r is positive in all the case which means that as the exports increases there is positive impact on the sub-category of exports. It is very high in case of manufactured goods (.96) followed by primary (.77) others (.40). Manufactured Exports its Sub-Sectors Table 1.3(b) shows the correlation between manufactured exports its sub-category. The test confirms the positive relation between the two the value of r is maximum for engineering goods (.93) followed by chemicals related products (.82) textile textile products (.79). Conclusion Future Prospects In the research done by Deloitte US Council on Competitiveness, Aranca Research, following factors have been identified which affect the export performance of the manufacturing sector.they are as follows: 1. Talent-driven innovation 2. Cost of labour materials 3. Energy cost of policies 4. Economic, trade, financial tax systems 5. Quality of physical infrastructure 6. Government investments in manufacturing innovation 7. Legal regulatory system 8. Supplier network 9. Local business dynamics Quality availability of healthcareon the basis of the report of the working group on Boosting Manufacturing Export, (2012-17) by Ministry of Commerce Industries following measures have been found that affect the india manufacturing exports. These measures are grouped into two heads technical non-technical measures. Under technical measures- sanitary phytosanitary measures (SPS0 technical barrier to trade (TBT) are included in case of non -technical barrier measures such as-pre-shipment inspection other formalities, price control measures, licenses, quotas, prohibition other quality control measures, charge, taxes other para-tariff measures, finance measures, trade- related investment measures, distribution restrictions, restriction on post-sales services, subsidies, government procurement, intellectual property finally the rule of origin. For export related the working group mentioned exported subsidies as the important measure.. International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page148
Although at present Indian government has formulated rules regulation with respect to all the areas but still lot need to be done. The major factor that is hampering the trade of manufacturing export from India at present is SPS TBT along with intellectual property. In the name of public health each year large number of consignment have to returned to India. Thus from the above study it is clear that once India export basket dominated by manufacturing sector has now seen a reduced share in the total exports with the sub-category of the manufacturing exports products such as chemicals related products, engineering goods gems jewellery have seen a considerable improvement in their share of total exports. The products that have seen reduction in there share are leather, textile products hicraft products, within these category the maximum loss has occurred to textile clothing product. With the reduction in the share of manufacturing exports losing its market to other countries India had lost is competitiveness with respect to manufacturing exports. On the basis of the report published by Deloitte-Global Manufacturing Competitive Index for 2013, has shown that India has moved down to fourth position from its previous position of second in three years time. Therefore then need of the time is to have new rules regulation that may be in consonance with the world rule regulation. Major areas of work lie with respect to SPS TBT which has not emerged as the major NTB tool to restrict the flow of goods. Apart from it domestic infrastructure technological development have to be pushed at a high speed to take the advantage of the competitiveness. References 1. Ahluwalia, I.J. (1991), Productivity Growth in Indian Manufacturing, Oxford University Press, New Delhi. 2. ATKEARNY (2005), Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index, Global Business Policy Council. 3. Besley, T. R. Burgess (2004), Can Labour Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1). 4. Burange, L. (1999), Industrial Growth Structure: Manufacturing Sector in Maharashtra. Economic Political Weekly, February 27; pp. M39 M48. 5. Burgess, R. R. Pe (2005), Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment, American Economic Review 95 (3). 6. Das, D.K. (2002), Trade Liberalization Industrial Productivity: An Assessment of Developing Country Experiences, ICRIER Working Paper No. 77. 7. Desai, A. (2001), A Decade of Reforms, Economic Political Weekly, Vol. 49 December 15 8. Government of India, (2006), Towards Faster More Inclusive Growth: An Approach to the 11th Five Plan, Planning Commission. 9. Kelkar, V.L. R. Kumar (1990), Industrial Growth in the Eighties: Emerging Policy Issues, Economic Political Weekly, January 27, pp 209-222 10. Kochhar, K., K. Kumar, R, Rajan, A. Subramanian I Tokatlidis (2006), India s Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows? IMF Working Paper 06/22. 11. Wignaraja, G. (2011). Economic Reforms, Regionalism Exports: Comparing China India. East- West Center, Policy Studies, No. 60. 12. Van Ark, B., Azeez Erumban, A.,Chen,V. Kumar,U (2008). The Cost Competitiveness of Manufacturing in China India: An Industry Regional Perspective. ICRIER Working Paper No.228. 13. Verma, S. (2002). Export Compet it iveness of Indian Garment Industry. ICRIER Working Paper No.94. 14. Virmani, A. (2004). India's economic growth: From socialist rate of growth to Bharatiya rate of growth. ICRIER Working paper No. 122. International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page149
15. Virmani,A. Danish,A. (2011). J -Curve of Productivity Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post- Liberalization. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/163. Table 1.1(a): Sector wise Contribution to Merchise Exports in Value(U.S Million) Commodity / Primary Manufactured Petroleum Others (All Commodities) Total Exports 1997 8035.10 24613.40 481.80 339.40 33469.70 1998 7687.30 26546.60 352.80 419.80 35006.40 1999 6927.90 25791.50 89.40 410.00 33218.70 2000 6524.20 29714.40 38.90 544.90 36822.40 2001 7126.20 34335.20 1869.70 1229.20 44560.30 2002 7163.60 33369.70 2119.10 1174.30 43826.70 2003 8706.10 40244.50 2576.50 1192.30 52719.40 2004 9901.80 48492.10 3568.40 1880.30 63842.60 2005 13553.30 60730.70 6989.30 2262.60 83535.90 2006 16377.40 72562.80 11639.60 2510.70 103090.50 2007 19685.90 84920.40 18634.60 3173.20 126414.10 2008 27551.90 102978.80 28363.10 4010.50 162904.30 2009 25335.40 123148.90 27547.00 9263.70 185295.00 2010 26396.50 115180.70 28192.00 8982.20 178751.40 2011 32844.70 157993.90 41480.00 18817.70 251136.20 2012 45574.00 186784.20 55603.50 16661.70 304623.50 Source: RBI Hbook of Statistics Commo dity / primary Table 1.1(b): Sector wise Share Annual Growth Share in Merchise Exports Manuf. Petroleu m Oth ers primary Annual Growth Rate CAGR(1997-2012) Manuf. Petroleu m Others Total Exports 1997 24.01 73.54 1.44 1.01 1998 21.96 75.83 1.01 1.20-4.33 7.85-26.77 23.69 4.59 1999 20.86 77.64 0.27 1.23-9.88-2.84-74.66-2.33-5.11 2000 17.72 80.70 0.11 1.48-5.83 15.21-56.49 32.90 10.85 2001 15.99 77.05 4.20 2.76 9.23 15.55 4706.43 125.58 21.01 2002 16.35 76.14 4.84 2.68 0.52-2.81 13.34-4.47-1.65 2003 16.51 76.34 4.89 2.26 21.53 20.60 21.58 1.53 20.29 2004 15.51 75.96 5.59 2.95 13.73 20.49 38.50 57.70 21.10 2005 16.22 72.70 8.37 2.71 36.88 25.24 95.87 20.33 30.85 2006 15.89 70.39 11.29 2.44 20.84 19.48 66.53 10.97 23.41 2007 15.57 67.18 14.74 2.51 20.20 17.03 60.10 26.39 22.62 2008 16.91 63.21 17.41 2.46 39.96 21.27 52.21 26.39 28.87 2009 13.67 66.46 14.87 5.00-8.04 19.59-2.88 130.99 13.74 2010 14.77 64.44 15.77 5.02 4.19-6.47 2.34-3.04-3.53 2011 13.08 62.91 16.52 7.49 24.43 37.17 47.13 109.50 40.49 International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page150
2012 14.96 61.32 18.25 5.47 38.76 18.22 34.05-11.46 21.30 Source: Computed from Table 1.1(a) Commo dity / Leather Manufactures CAGR(1997-2012) 0.12 0.14 0.37 0.30 0.16 Table 1.2(a): Manufactured Exports in value terms(u.s Million) Chemicals Related Engineeri ng Gems Jewellery Hicrafts (excluding Hmade Other Manufact ured Manufacture d 1997 1605.80 3912.80 4962.70 8635.80 4752.70 475.70 267.90 24613.40 1998 1656.70 4396.30 5336.20 9050.40 5345.50 525.90 235.60 26546.60 1999 1660.70 4009.20 4463.90 8866.30 5929.30 633.10 228.90 25791.50 2000 1590.20 4706.50 5152.10 9822.10 7502.30 668.60 272.60 29714.40 2001 1944.40 5885.90 6818.60 11285.00 7384.00 661.50 355.80 34335.20 2002 1910.10 6051.80 6957.80 10206.50 7306.30 549.00 388.30 33369.70 2003 1848.30 7455.30 9033.00 11617.00 9029.90 785.30 475.60 40244.50 2004 2163.00 9445.90 12405.40 12791.50 10573.30 499.70 613.30 48492.10 2005 2421.60 12443.70 17348.30 13555.30 13761.80 377.40 822.60 60730.70 2006 2697.70 14769.50 21718.80 16402.10 15529.10 462.00 983.70 72562.80 2007 3016.70 17335.40 29567.20 17373.20 15977.00 438.00 1213.00 84920.40 2008 3502.50 21193.80 37365.20 19425.70 19678.70 508.20 1304.60 102978.80 2009 3556.00 22708.10 47285.60 20016.40 27955.20 301.00 1326.70 123148.90 2010 3361.10 22908.80 38271.30 19853.00 28996.30 224.80 1565.50 115180.70 2011 3910.60 28871.00 58137.40 24225.00 40476.10 256.90 2116.90 157993.90 2012 4788.50 37190.50 67093.10 27998.00 46900.80 233.50 2580.00 186784.20 Source: RBI Hbook of Statistics Commodity / Leather Manu. Table 1.2(b) Category wise share in Manufactured Exports Chem. Related Engineering Gems Jewellery Hicrafts (exc. Hdmd Ot. Manuf 1997 6.52 15.90 20.16 35.09 19.31 1.93 1.09 1998 6.24 16.56 20.10 34.09 20.14 1.98 0.89 1999 6.44 15.54 17.31 34.38 22.99 2.45 0.89 2000 5.35 15.84 17.34 33.06 25.25 2.25 0.92 2001 5.66 17.14 19.86 32.87 21.51 1.93 1.04 2002 5.72 18.14 20.85 30.59 21.90 1.65 1.16 2003 4.59 18.53 22.45 28.87 22.44 1.95 1.18 2004 4.46 19.48 25.58 26.38 21.80 1.03 1.26 2005 3.99 20.49 28.57 22.32 22.66 0.62 1.35 2006 3.72 20.35 29.93 22.60 21.40 0.64 1.36 2007 3.55 20.41 34.82 20.46 18.81 0.52 1.43 International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page151
2008 3.40 20.58 36.28 18.86 19.11 0.49 1.27 2009 2.89 18.44 38.40 16.25 22.70 0.24 1.08 2010 2.92 19.89 33.23 17.24 25.17 0.20 1.36 2011 2.48 18.27 36.80 15.33 25.62 0.16 1.34 2012 2.56 19.91 35.92 14.99 25.11 0.13 1.38 Source: Compiled from Table 1.2(a) Commodity / Leather Manu. Table 1.2(c): Annual Growth rate CAGR(1997-2012) Chem. & Related Engg. Gems & Jewel. Hicrafts (exc. Hdmd Ot. Manuf Manuf. 1998 3.17 12.36 7.53 4.80 12.47 10.55-12.06 7.85 1999 0.24-8.81-16.35-2.03 10.92 20.38-2.84-2.84 2000-4.25 17.39 15.42 10.78 26.53 5.61 19.09 15.21 2001 22.27 25.06 32.35 14.89-1.58-1.06 30.52 15.55 2002-1.76 2.82 2.04-9.56-1.05-17.01 9.13-2.81 2003-3.24 23.19 29.83 13.82 23.59 43.04 22.48 20.60 2004 17.03 26.70 37.33 10.11 17.09-36.37 28.95 20.49 2005 11.96 31.74 39.84 5.97 30.16-24.47 34.13 25.24 2006 11.40 18.69 25.19 21.00 12.84 22.42 19.58 19.48 2007 11.82 17.37 36.14 5.92 2.88-5.19 23.31 17.03 2008 16.10 22.26 26.37 11.81 23.17 16.03 7.55 21.27 2009 1.53 7.15 26.55 3.04 42.06-40.77 1.69 19.59 2010-5.48 0.88-19.06-0.82 3.72-25.32 18.00-6.47 2011 16.35 26.03 51.91 22.02 39.59 14.28 35.22 37.17 2012 22.45 28.82 15.40 15.57 15.87-9.11 21.88 18.22 CAGR 0.08 0.16 0.19 0.08 0.16-0.05 0.16 0.14 Source: Compiled from Table 1.2(a) Table 1.3(a): Results of Test of Correlation with Total Exports (1997-2012) Primary Manufactured Petroleum Others Value of r 0.77 0.96 0.12 0.40 Source: Computed from Table 1.1(b) Leather Manufactures Table 1.3(b): Results of test of Correlation with Manufactured Exports(1997-2012) Chemicals Engineering Gems Related Jewellery Hicrafts (excluding Hmade Other Manufactured Value 0.59 0.82 0.93 0.79 0.68 0.13 0.56 of r Source: Computed form Table 1.2(c) International Journal of Business Administration Research Review, Vol.2, Issue.5, April - June, 2014. Page152