February 25, 2015 Study Committee Meeting Opening Remarks

February 25, 2015 Study Committee Meeting Opening Remarks

February 25, 2015 Agenda 1. Review of Charge, Schedule and Organizational Matters (John Milliken 2. Tonight s Agenda (John Milliken) 3. Presentations and Q&A: Terry Clower, Deputy Director, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Massoud Ahmadi, Senior Vice President, Strategic Impact Advisors Alex Iams, Deputy Director (Acting), Arlington Economic Development Victor Hoskins, Director, Arlington Economic Development 4. Table Discussion with Resident Forum 5. Closing Remarks (John Milliken) 2

County Board and School Board Adopted Charge Build a consensus framework regarding future revenue and facility needs that will inform County and School Board decision-making related to meeting the community's requirements for additional school, fire station, vehicle storage sites and other facility needs in the context of Arlington's and the region's projected 5, 10 and 20 year economic and demographic growth. 3

Overall Schedule* Jan 2015 Feb March April May June July August September October November *Schedule subject to refinement 4

Housekeeping Items Study Committee: As a rule the Group will operate as a whole will split into sub-committees to discuss challenges: Financials/Economic Development Demographics/Projections Siting Principles Resident Forum A group intended to broaden the range of those participating and also intended to serve as the communications link to their own and neighborhoods. A number of formats, including tonight s table discussion & Saturday workshops, are planned to engage meaningfully with this group. 5

Follow the Process Project website: http://bit.ly/acgfacstudy and www.arlingtonva.us search Community Facilities Study WiFi password for APS buildings: Knowledge Email us: ACGFacStudy@arlingtonva.us Check your SPAM folder: make CPHD@arlingtonva.us a safe-sender 6

Meeting #2 Tonight Role of the Resident Forum Two-way communication Resource and sounding board Plan for tonight two parts Presentations on economic issues Questions on County economic model Break Out table discussions What happens after tonight? Subcommittee on economic issues and challenges Review of subcommittee report 7

Meeting #1 Recap from February 11, 2015 1. Where are the County revenue funds coming from? 2. Role of the commercial sector? 3. What the future may hold? Note responses to several revenue questions are provided in the handouts; Additional responses will be posted online soon. 8

General Fund Revenue By Source License, Permits & Fees, 1% Charges for Services, 5% State, 12% Misc., 8% FY 1985: $205.2 million Local Taxes, 70% License, Permits & Fees, 1% FY 2015: $1.15 billion License, Permits & Fees, 1% Charges for Services, 4% State, 9% Federal, 4% FY 1995: $418.3 million Local Taxes, 74% Charges for Services, 5% State, 6% Misc., 5% Local Taxes, 82% Misc., 9% Federal, 3% Federal, 1% 9

Local Tax Revenue by Source (General Fund) FY 2015 Real Estate: Commercial, 21% Real Estate: Residential, 25% Real Estate: Condominium, 9% Real Estate: Apartments, 13% Personal Property: Bus. Tangible, 4% Personal Property: Vehicles, 8% BPOL, 6% Other, 2% Communication Tax, 1% Meals Tax, 4% Utility Tax, 1% Transient Occupancy Tax, 2% Local Sales Tax, 4% 10

Real Estate Impact on Homeowner Regionally 80% 75% 79% 75% Residential assessments as a percentage of total tax base 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 75% 76% 76% 74% 74% 75% 73% Prince William Fairfax County 70% 72% 68% 69% 70% 70% 70% 70% Loudoun County 65% 60% 55% 50% 57% 56% 57% 57% 56% 55% 55% 55% 54% 56% 54% 51% 51% 51% CY 2008 CY 2009 CY 2010 CY 2011 CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014 City of Alexandria Arlington County 11

Table Discussions Questions for review & comment What future challenges do you see to Arlington s basic economic model of reliance on the commercial sector (office, multi-family rental residential and retail) for 50 percent of its real estate taxes? If challenges exist, what steps or solutions should Arlington consider to address those challenges? What constraints or barriers exist to taking those steps or solutions? Instructions Discuss presentation material and questions at your table; Record responses Give your documentation to staff Staff will compile it and share it with the Financial/Economic Development Subcommittee 12

Upcoming Dates ALL ARE INVITED & ENCOURAGED TO ATTEND THE FOLLOWING MEETINGS: March 11, 2015 Location TBD Demographics & Forecasting Forum March 25, 2015 Location TBD Forecasting Assessment 13